The elephant in the ground: managing oil andsovereign wealth

One of the most important developments in international finance and resource economics in the past twenty years is the rapid and widespread emergence of the $6 trillion sovereign wealth fund industry. Oil exporters typically ignore below-ground assets when allocating these funds, and ignore above-ground assets when extracting oil. We present a unified stylized framework for considering both. Subsoil oil should alter a fund's portfolio through additional leverage and hedging. First-best spending should be a share of total wealth, and any unhedgeable volatility must be managed by precautionary savings. If oil prices are pro-cyclical, oil should be extracted faster than the Hotelling rule to generate a risk premium on oil wealth. Finally, we discuss how our analysis could improve the management of Norway's fund in practice

Surface gravity wave-induced drift of floating objects in the diffraction regime

Floating objects will drift due to the action of surface gravity waves. This drift will depart from that of a perfect Lagrangian tracer due to both viscous effects (non-potential flow) and wave–body interaction (potential flow). We examine the drift of freely floating objects in regular (non-breaking) deep-water wave fields for object sizes that are large enough to cause significant diffraction. Systematic numerical simulations are performed using a hybrid numerical solver, qaleFOAM, which deals with both viscosity and wave–body interaction. For very small objects, the model predicts a wave-induced drift equal to the Stokes drift. For larger objects, the drift is generally greater and increases with object size (we examine object sizes up to 10% of the wavelength). The effects of different shapes, sizes and submergence depths and steepnesses are examined. Furthermore, we derive a ‘diffraction-modified Stokes drift’ akin to Stokes (Trans. Camb. Phil. Soc., vol. 8, 1847, pp. 411–455), but based on the combination of incident, diffracted and radiated wave fields, which are based on potential-flow theory and obtained using the boundary element method. This diffraction-modified Stokes drift explains both qualitatively and quantitatively the increase in drift. Generally, round objects do not diffract the wave field significantly and do not experience a significant drift enhancement as a result. For box-shape objects, drift enhancement is greater for larger objects with greater submergence depths (we report an increase of 92% for simulations without viscosity and 113% with viscosity for a round-cornered box whose size is 10% of the wavelength). We identify the specific standing wave pattern that arises near the object because of diffraction as the main cause of the enhanced drift. Viscosity plays a small positive role in the enhanced drift behaviour of large objects, increasing the drift further by approximately 20%

Why rogue waves occur atop abrupt depth transitions

Abrupt depth transitions (ADTs) have recently been identified as potential causes of ‘rogue’ ocean waves. When stationary and (close-to) normally distributed waves travel into shallower water over an ADT, distinct spatially localized peaks in the probability of extreme waves occur. These peaks have been predicted numerically, observed experimentally, but not explained theoretically. Providing this theoretical explanation using a leading-order-physics-based statistical model, we show, by comparing to new experiments and numerical simulations, the peaks arise from the interaction between linear free and second-order bound waves, also present in the absence of the ADT, and new second-order free waves generated due to the ADT

Directional Soliton and Breather Beams

Solitons and breathers are nonlinear modes that exist in a wide range of physical systems. They are fundamental solutions of a number of nonlinear wave evolution equations, including the uni-directional nonlinear Schr\"odinger equation (NLSE). We report the observation of slanted solitons and breathers propagating at an angle with respect to the direction of propagation of the wave field. As the coherence is diagonal, the scale in the crest direction becomes finite, consequently, a beam dynamics forms. Spatio-temporal measurements of the water surface elevation are obtained by stereo-reconstructing the positions of the floating markers placed on a regular lattice and recorded with two synchronized high-speed cameras. Experimental results, based on the predictions obtained from the (2D+1) hyperbolic NLSE equation, are in excellent agreement with the theory. Our study proves the existence of such unique and coherent wave packets and has serious implications for practical applications in optical sciences and physical oceanography. Moreover, unstable wave fields in this geometry may explain the formation of directional large amplitude rogue waves with a finite crest length within a wide range of nonlinear dispersive media, such as Bose-Einstein condensates, plasma, hydrodynamics and optics

Briefing: Young Coastal Scientists and Engineers Conference 2013

On 25–26 March 2013, 52 early career scientists and engineers, studying various aspects of coastal science, met at the University of Aberdeen for the ninth Young Coastal Scientists and Engineers Conference. The conference was jointly organised by the School of Engineering, University of Aberdeen, and Marine Scotland Science. Early-career scientists, researchers and practitioners presented 23 oral and 17 poster presentations over the 2-day meeting. The papers all had a coastal theme with a large diversity in the subjects covered, including waves, currents, tidal energy, coastal erosion, sediment transport, fluid mechanics and particle tracking. This briefing paper reports on the conference, and presents the keynote lecture and four papers voted to be of especially high quality by the panel of judges

Saving Alberta's Resource Revenues: Role of Intergenerational and Liquidity Funds

We use a welfare-based intertemporal stochastic optimization model and historical data to estimate the size of the optimal intergenerational and liquidity funds and the corresponding resource dividend available to the government of the Canadian province Alberta. To first-order of approximation, this dividend should be a constant fraction of total above- and below-ground wealth, complemented by additional precautionary savings at initial times to build up a small liquidity fund to cope with oil price volatility. The ongoing dividend equals approximately 30 per cent of government revenue and requires building assets of approximately 40 per cent of GDP in 2030, 100 per cent of GDP in 2050 and 165 per cent in 2100. Finally, the effect of the recent plunge in oil prices on our estimates is examined. Our recommendations are in stark contrast with historical and current government policy

Experimental Study of Dispersion and Modulational Instability of Surface Gravity Waves on Constant Vorticity Currents

This paper examines experimentally the dispersion and stability of weakly nonlinear waves on opposing linearly vertically sheared current profiles (with constant vorticity). Measurements are compared against predictions from the unidirectional (1D + 1) constant vorticity nonlinear Schrödinger equation (the vor-NLSE) derived by Thomas et al. (Phys. Fluids, vol. 24, no. 12, 2012, 127102). The shear rate is negative in opposing currents when the magnitude of the current in the laboratory reference frame is negative (i.e. opposing the direction of wave propagation) and reduces with depth, as is most commonly encountered in nature. Compared to a uniform current with the same surface velocity, negative shear has the effect of increasing wavelength and enhancing stability. In experiments with a regular low-steepness wave, the dispersion relationship between wavelength and frequency is examined on five opposing current profiles with shear rates from 0 to −0.87 s−1. For all current profiles, the linear constant vorticity dispersion relation predicts the wavenumber to within the 95 % confidence bounds associated with estimates of shear rate and surface current velocity. The effect of shear on modulational instability was determined by the spectral evolution of a carrier wave seeded with spectral sidebands on opposing current profiles with shear rates between 0 and −0.48 s−1. Numerical solutions of the vor-NLSE are consistently found to predict sideband growth to within two standard deviations across repeated experiments, performing considerably better than its uniform-current NLSE counterpart. Similarly, the amplification of experimental wave envelopes is predicted well by numerical solutions of the vor-NLSE, and significantly over-predicted by the uniform-current NLSE

Hydrodynamic X Waves

Stationary wave groups exist in a range of nonlinear dispersive media, including optics, Bose-Einstein condensates, plasma, and hydrodynamics. We report experimental observations of nonlinear surface gravity X waves, i.e., X -shaped wave envelopes that propagate over long distances with constant form. These can be described by the 2 D + 1 nonlinear Schrödinger equation, which predicts a balance between dispersion and diffraction when the envelope (the arms of the X ) travel at ± arctan ( 1 / √ 2 ) ≈ ± 35.2 6 ° to the carrier wave. Our findings may help improve understanding the lifetime of extremes in directional seas and motivate further studies in other nonlinear dispersive media

The physical oceanography of the transport of floating marine debris

Marine plastic debris floating on the ocean surface is a major environmental problem. However, its distribution in the ocean is poorly mapped, and most of the plastic waste estimated to have entered the ocean from land is unaccounted for. Better understanding of how plastic debris is transported from coastal and marine sources is crucial to quantify and close the global inventory of marine plastics, which in turn represents critical information for mitigation or policy strategies. At the same time, plastic is a unique tracer that provides an opportunity to learn more about the physics and dynamics of our ocean across multiple scales, from the Ekman convergence in basin-scale gyres to individual waves in the surfzone. In this review, we comprehensively discuss what is known about the different processes that govern the transport of floating marine plastic debris in both the open ocean and the coastal zones, based on the published literature and referring to insights from neighbouring fields such as oil spill dispersion, marine safety recovery, plankton connectivity, and others. We discuss how measurements of marine plastics (both in situ and in the laboratory), remote sensing, and numerical simulations can elucidate these processes and their interactions across spatio-temporal scales