Credible targets for environmental management

In the year 2000, countries of the European Union agreed to harmonise water management by implementing the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The WFD uses good ecological status as the overall goal, which is defined as minor deviation from an undisturbed state. Reference conditions provide the means of estimating water status and ecological integrity, which are the focal point of decision-making processes. When determining reference conditions, the WFD prescribes the use of all available knowledge so as to reduce the predictive uncertainties. While the goal of achieving conditions similar to an undisturbed state can be desirable, the use of reference conditions as a target creates inherent complexity on multiple levels. This thesis focuses on evaluating the implications of different interpretations and implementations of WFD reference conditions for status assessment of Swedish surface waters. Specifically, the objectives were to: (I) define the implications of different reference condition criteria and understand the diversity of ways in which the term is used, (II) compare independent estimates of reference conditions estimated using historical fish archives and biogeochemical modelling for acidification assessment, (III) evaluate recovery from acidification of acid sensitive Swedish lakes and analyse potential confounding factors influencing future management, (IV) develop empirical models to estimate historical and present temporal trends in lake total organic carbon concentrations. Together and individually these studies have developed methods and models in which predictive uncertainties associated with reference conditions have been reduced. This thesis show how multiple methods can be used to reduce the uncertainties in surface water reference condition estimates as well as presenting approaches to the use of all available information as prescribed by the WFD. Furthermore, this thesis highlight the multiple competing, but equally valid, approaches to estimate reference conditions based on knowledge from different sources. In this thesis, it is argued that representations of the undisturbed state are a moving target and greater acceptance for multiple reference conditions based on all available knowledge is needed

EU-Water Framework Directive, reference conditions & public participation : a comprehensive directive with antagonistic poles or a harmonious monopole?

The European Union accepted and approved the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) in 2000 through the European Parliament (WFD 2000/60/EC). It was seen as a joint decision to improve the water quality within the Union’s borders. The overall goal for water management is given as ‘good ecological status’ (GES) 15 years after implementation of the WFD. Two different scientific disciplines and often contradicting epistemologies lie at the heart of the WFD. Firstly, the classification of ecological status is with respect to a reference condition (RC), and RC is thought of as being the same as it was prior to significant human activity or disturbance, referred to as an “undisturbed state”. Secondly, public participation (PP), where it is explicitly argued that the success of the directive rested much on the outcome of PP. Information sharing from the decision makers seem to be the foremost important task when it comes to use of PP in the WFD. This study examined the relationship between RC and PP in the WFD through estimations of RC for 20 Swedish lakes with different input data, and a lake specific case-study in which perceptions of stakeholders in relation to what they believed was important for “their” lake. Furthermore, this study has explored the origin of the phrase ‘undisturbed state’ in relation to water bodies and explored the relationship between science and policy in the WFD. The results indicate that there is no direct relationship between PP and RC when considering the public’s perception. This study shows that the local people posses a great knowledge on specific events that they have visually experienced. The link between RC and PP in the WFD is clearer when the uncertainties for science are too large and classification of a lake cannot be made. Then local knowledge bought out through public participation could help in the classification of a lake and the establishment of the RC. This study supports the difficulties and uncertainties of determining RC for Swedish surface water, however, the basic values people hold about clean and unpolluted water corresponds well with the overall goal of GES for Swedish lakes. This raises the questions, should we keep our focus mainly on RC or use more of the basic values and local knowledge to focus on human benefits

För var dag blir det bättre men bra lär det aldrig bli

Stora utsläppsminskningar av försurande svavel de senaste decennierna har lett till att svaveldepositionen nu är tillbaka på samma nivåer som för 100 år sedan. Detta har åtföljts av minskad surhet i sjöar och vattendrag och tecken på biologisk återhämtning. Samtidigt är många vatten fortfarande försurade och uppnår därmed inte kravet god ekologisk status i EUs ramdirektiv för vatten (WFD). Försurningsproblemets omfattning motiverar att ”Bara naturlig försurning” är ett av Sveriges 16 miljömål. Denna rapport är en uppföljning av två av försurningsmålets preciseringar om att det försurande nedfallet inte ska överskrida den kritiska belastningen för vad naturen tål och att Sveriges sjöar och vattendrag ska uppnå minst god ekologisk status enligt WFD. Trender av vattenkemi presenteras från försurningskänsliga sjöar och vattendrag inom den nationella och regionala miljöövervakningen. Bedömningen av andelen försurade sjöar och överskridande av kritisk belastning baserar sig på miljöövervakningsprogrammet med sjöar i omdrev. Utvärderingen baserar sig på en indelning i fyra regioner med olika försurning som följer länsgränser och Högsta kustlinjen. Bedömningen av biologisk återhämtning från försurning baserar sig på en litteraturstudie. En utvärdering av historisk och nutida förekomst av mört som indikator på återhämtning från försurning presenteras också. Vattenkemiska trender analyserades i jonsvaga trendstationer med ANC < 0,3 mekv/l (ANC = syraneutraliserande förmåga). Urvalet gav 95 sjöar med tidsserier 1988-2013. Huvuddelen av sjöarna hade ursprungligen valts för att vara referenser till kalkningsverksamheten och lämpar sig därför väl för att studera återhämtning från försurning. Sjöarna saknar större påverkan från punktkällor och jordbruk så variation i klimat och deposition är därmed de främsta orsakerna till förändring. För vattendragen avgränsades data till perioden 1998-2013 för att få tillräckligt många stationer för en regional analys, 64 stycken. Vattendragen har en mer heterogen sammansättning, med allt från små skogsbäckar till inlandsstationer i de stora älvarna. Sulfathalten och ANC minskade i sjöar i hela landet 1988-2013. En viss utplaning av trenden har skett, men minskningen har fortsatt även de senaste åren trots att depositionsminskningen planat ut. I södra halvan av Sverige minskade även halten baskatjoner (Ca, Mg, Na och K), vilket kan tolkas som en effekt av minskat försurningstryck. Halten naturligt organiskt kol (TOC) ökade i sjöar hela landet förutom I Norrlands inland. I den mest försurningspåverkade sydvästra delen av landet ökade alkalinitet och pH. En signifikant pH-ökning noterades även i Norrlands inland,men det har troligen naturliga orsaker. Ett urval av de 57 suraste sjöarna visade att förekomsten av pH-värden under 5,6 har minskat. Detta värde brukar anges som tröskelvärde för förekomst av mört, och resultaten tyder på att det finns kemiska förutsättningar för en biologisk återhämtning i många sjöar. Även i vattendragen minskade sulfathalten i hela landet. Få signifikanta trender noterades för övriga parametrar, delvis på grund av de 10 år kortare tidsserierna jämfört med sjöarna. En signifikant minskning av halten baskatjoner noterades I sydvästra Sverige liksom ökande TOC-halter i sydvästra samt östra och mellersta Institutionen för vatten och miljö Sverige. I Norrlands inland ökade alkaliniteten signifikant, troligen på grund av naturlig klimatstyrd variation. I tre sura bäckar ökade förekomsten av pH-värden över 5,6. En trendanalys av bottenfauna i sjöar och vattendrag i Europa och Nordamerika visade på ökad biodiversitet kopplat till minskande sulfathalter, med särskilt tydliga trender i Sverige. Samtidigt visar fördjupande studier på komplexiteten i kontrollen av biodiversiteten vilket försvårar att entydigt koppla trenderna till återhämtning från försurning. En undersökning av mörtbeståndens utveckling de senaste ca.100 åren i 19 sjöar där mört försvunnit under försurningsperioden visade på en viss återhämtning från försurning, delvis på grund av kalkning. I 11 av sjöarna hade mörten kommit tillbaka. Av dessa var 10 kalkade. Mörten hade bara återkommit i 1 av 3 okalkadesjöar. År 2010 var 10 % av Sveriges sjöar > 1 ha försurade. Bedömningen baseras på bedömningsgrunderna och innebär en minskning av pH-värdet med mer än 0,4 enheter sedan 1860 enligt geokemisk modellering (MAGIC). För kalkade sjöar beräknades de vattenkemiska parametrarna om för att ta bort effekten av kalkning innan bedömningen gjordes. Tillståndet innebär en återhämtning från 17 % försuradesjöar 1990. Prognoser för 2020 visar inte på någon ytterligare återhämtning. Försurningspåverkan är störst i sydvästra Sverige, 47 % av sjöarna, medan den är minst i Norrlands inland, 2 %. En kritisk granskning av bedömningen visar att bristande kunskap om dynamiken för svavel och kol ger en viss risk för överskattning av försurningen. Risken är störst i Norra Sverige där depositionen är tillbaka på nivåer nära bakgrundshalterna och där små fel därmed kan få stor betydelse. Den kritiska belastningen av försurande ämnen för sjöar överskreds på 17 % av Sveriges areal 2010. Det är en avsevärd minskning sedan 1980 då 58 % av arealen hade ett överskridande. År 2020 förväntas överskridandet vara ner på 10 % om alla beslutade åtgärder genomförs i Europa och inom den internationella sjöfarten. Beräkningarna av försurningspåverkan och överskridande av kritisk belastning visar på en omfattande förbättring av miljötillståndet med minskad försurning och minskat överskridande av kritisk belastning de senaste decennierna. Samtidigt visar prognoserna inte på någon fortsatt förbättring. Det innebär att med dagens miljömålsformulering, beräkningsmodeller och markanvändning går miljömålet inte att uppnå

Relation between land use change and long-term trends of organic carbon in lake water and its importance for acidification assessment

This study examines the changes of total organic carbon (TOC) concentrations in 20 Swedish lakes throughout Sweden using pre-industrial (1860) TOC0 inferred from near-infrared spectrometry (TOCNIRS) of lake sediments to determine if land use change over time could be a plausible explanation for changes in lake water TOC. The study also focuses on the importance of using inferred pre-industrial data of lake water pH and TOC for acidification assessment, in particular ANC0. Most lakes in this study show a long-term decreasing trend of TOC from 1860 up to -0.45 mg/l/yr-1 to an identified breaking point where the TOC turns from decreasing to increasing. Fifteen of the lakes have a breaking point in the mid to late 20th century (1950-1980) while five lakes do not display a clear breaking point. The magnitude of the increasing trend of TOC after the breaking point is up to 0.16 mg/l/yr-1 . Changes in land use were studied by comparing historical maps with present databases of land use. Land use changes in the catchment area show substantial differences in forest cultivation; for instance the coniferous forest has increased by 26% on average. This increase is due to removal of native forest (deciduous forest) and removal of wetlands. Two major conclusions can be drawn from the effects of land use change on TOC levels: (I) No direct correlation between land use change and long-term trends of TOC could be identified in this study. Previous studies have identified the effects of land use change on the carbon storage in the catchment area that corresponds well with the findings of this study. (II) the character of the forest land plays an important role when discussing the effects of land use change for long term TOC trends. The change from open-ended forests with large trees to intense managed forest is considered as an important driving force for TOC. To determine reference conditions there is a need to make good estimations of ANC0 for acidification assessment in Swedish lakes. This study examines the precision of MAGIC model ANC0 calculations (ANC0-MAGIC) against ANC0 calculated with TOCNIRS, diatom-pH and calculated pCO2 (ANC0, diatom-NIRS). ANC0, diatom-NIRS shows a mean difference of (-31µeq/l) when comparing it with ANC0-MAGIC. In comparison, when using contemporary TOC (TOCt) mean lake value 1990-2005 (ANC0,diatom-TOC) the results show a mean difference of (-0.45 µeq/l) in comparison with ANC0-MAGIC. A better fit is generated with TOCNIRS then TOCt. This could be an indication that ANC0- MAGIC overestimates the acidification of Swedish lakes. The European Union’s “Water 8 Framework Directive”, which Sweden has implemented, requires that all surface waters within the Union’s authority have achieved good ecological status by 2015. According to the ecological quality standard the differences between the pre-industrial pH and contemporary pH, i.e. ΔpH=pH0-pHt, should not be more than 0.4 units. This study shows that the long-term trends have to be accounted for when calculating reference conditions and ecological status for acidificatio

The other ‘other’: Party responses to immigration in eastern Europe

Eastern Europe has traditionally been a region of emigration, sending thousands of refugees and migrants to the more developed and democratic west. The recent democratization and rising affluence of some eastern European countries, however, make them increasingly attractive destinations of migrant workers, slowly but surely turning them into immigrant societies. This article addresses the responses of political parties to the issue of immigration and immigrant integration. Through large-N quantitative analyses of 11 eastern European countries using the Chapel Hill Expert Surveys, the 2009 European Election Study, the Database of Political Institutions and World Bank indicators, it analyzes the causes of immigration salience, as well as the reasons behind immigration and integration policy positions. The article argues that partisan and voter views on immigration in eastern Europe are guided by ideological views on ethnic minorities, which have been the traditional ‘out-groups’ in the region. Partisan positions on immigration and immigrant integration are consequently determined by underlying ideological principles concerning cultural openness and acceptance of ‘otherness’. Immigrants to eastern Europe are consequently viewed as the other ‘other’

Modelling study of soil C, N and pH response to air pollution and climate change using European LTER site observations

Current climate warming is expected to continue in coming decades, whereas high N deposition may stabilize, in contrast to the clear decrease in S deposition. These pressures have distinctive regional patterns and their resulting impact on soil conditions is modified by local site characteristics. We have applied the VSD+ soil dynamic model to study impacts of deposition and climate change on soil properties, using MetHyd and GrowUp as pre-processors to provide input to VSD+. The single-layer soil model VSD+ accounts for processes of organic C and N turnover, as well as charge and mass balances of elements, cation exchange and base cation weathering. We calibrated VSD+ at 26 ecosystem study sites throughout Europe using observed conditions, and simulated key soil properties: soil solution pH (pH), soil base saturation (BS) and soil organic carbon and nitrogen ratio (C:N) under projected deposition of N and S, and climate warming until 2100. The sites are forested, located in the Mediterranean, forested alpine, Atlantic, continental and boreal regions. They represent the long-term ecological research (LTER) Europe network, including sites of the ICP Forests and ICP Integrated Monitoring (IM) programmes under the UNECE Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution (LRTAP), providing high quality long-term data on ecosystem response. Simulated future soil conditions improved under projected decrease in deposition and current climate conditions: higher pH, BS and C:N at 21, 16 and 12 of the sites, respectively. When climate change was included in the scenario analysis, the variability of the results increased. Climate warming resulted in higher simulated pH in most cases, and higher BS and C:N in roughly half of the cases. Especially the increase in C:N was more marked with climate warming. The study illustrates the value of LTER sites for applying models to predict soil responses to multiple environmental changes

Currently legislated decreases in nitrogen deposition will yield only limited plant species recovery in European forests

Atmospheric nitrogen (N) pollution is considered responsible for a substantial decline in plant species richness and for altered community structures in terrestrial habitats worldwide. Nitrogen affects habitats through direct toxicity, soil acidification, and in particular by favoring fast-growing species. Pressure from N pollution is decreasing in some areas. In Europe (EU28), overall emissions of NO x declined by more than 50% while NH3 declined by less than 30% between the years 1990 and 2015, and further decreases may be achieved. The timescale over which these improvements will affect ecosystems is uncertain. Here we use 23 European forest research sites with high quality long-term data on deposition, climate, soil recovery, and understory vegetation to assess benefits of currently legislated N deposition reductions in forest understory vegetation. A dynamic soil model coupled to a statistical plant species niche model was applied with site-based climate and deposition. We use indicators of N deposition and climate warming effects such as the change in the occurrence of oligophilic, acidophilic, and cold-tolerant plant species to compare the present with projections for 2030 and 2050. The decrease in N deposition under current legislation emission (CLE) reduction targets until 2030 is not expected to result in a release from eutrophication. Albeit the model predictions show considerable uncertainty when compared with observations, they indicate that oligophilic forest understory plant species will further decrease. This result is partially due to confounding processes related to climate effects and to major decreases in sulphur deposition and consequent recovery from soil acidification, but shows that decreases in N deposition under CLE will most likely be insufficient to allow recovery from eutrophication

Variability in organic carbon reactivity across lake residence time and trophic gradients

The transport of dissolved organic carbon from land to ocean is a large dynamic component of the global carbon cycle. Inland waters are hotspots for organic matter turnover, via both biological and photochemical processes, and mediate carbon transfer between land, oceans and atmosphere. However, predicting dissolved organic carbon reactivity remains problematic. Here we present in situ dissolved organic carbon budget data from 82 predominantly European and North American water bodies with varying nutrient concentrations and water residence times ranging from one week to 700 years. We find that trophic status strongly regulates whether water bodies act as net dissolved organic carbon sources or sinks, and that rates of both dissolved organic carbon production and consumption can be predicted from water residence time. Our results suggest a dominant role of rapid light-driven removal in water bodies with a short water residence time, whereas in water bodies with longer residence times, slower biotic production and consumption processes are dominant and counterbalance one another. Eutrophication caused lakes to transition from sinks to sources of dissolved organic carbon. We conclude that rates and locations of dissolved organic carbon processing and associated CO2 emissions in inland waters may be misrepresented in global carbon budgets if temporal and spatial reactivity gradients are not accounted for