Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 100,000 confirmed infections and 4000 fatalities (as of 10 March 2020). The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterise our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems

Real-world effects of anti-dementia treatment on mortality in patients with Alzheimer´s dementia

To examine the real-world effects of the cholinesterase inhibitors (AChEI) on all-cause mortality. A nationwide, retrospective cohort study. Participants were diagnosed with incident AD in Denmark from January 1, 2000 to December 31, 2011 with follow-up until December 31, 2012. A total of 36,513 participants were included in the current study with 22,063 deaths during 132,426 person-years of follow-up. At baseline, patients not treated with AChEI (n = 28,755 [9961 males (35%)]) had a mean age ± standard deviation (SD) of 80.33 ± 7.98 years (78.97 ± 8.26 for males and 81.04 ± 7.98 for females), as compared to 79.95 ± 7.67 (78.87 ± 7.61 for males and 80.61 ± 7.63 for females) in the group exposed at baseline. Patients treated with AChEI had a beneficial hazard ratio (HR) of 0.69, 95% confidence interval (CI) (0.67–0.71) for all-cause mortality as compared to patients not treated, with donepezil (HR 0.80, 95% CI [0.77–0.82]) and galantamine (HR 0.93,95% CI [0.89–0.97]) having beneficial effects on mortality rate as compared to non-treatment, whereas rivastigmine (HR 0.99, 95% CI [0.95–1.03]) was associated with a mortality rate comparable to non-treatment with AChEI. Patients were primarily exposed to donepezil (65.8%) with rivastigmine (19.8%) and galantamine (14.4%) being used less often. These findings underscore the effect of AChEI on not only reducing speed of cognitive decline but also directly prolonging life, which could result in changes in treatment recommendation for when to stop treatment

COVID-19 Scenarios: an interactive tool to explore the spread and associated morbidity and mortality of SARS-CoV-2

The ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has caused large outbreaks around the world and every heavily affected community has experienced a substantial strain on the health care system and a high death toll. Communities therefore have to monitor the incidence of COVID-19 carefully and attempt to project the demand for health care. To enable such projections, we have developed an interactive web application that simulates an age-structured SEIR model with separate compartments for severely and critically ill patients. The tool allows the users to modify most parameters of the model, including age specific assumptions on severity. Infection control and mitigation measures that reduce transmission can be specified, as well as age-group specific isolation. The simulation of the model runs entirely on the client side in the browser; all parameter settings and results of the simulation can be exported for further downstream analysis. The tool is available at covid19-scenarios.org and the source code at github.com/neherlab/covid19_scenarios

Superior triacylglycerol (TAG) accumulation in starchless mutants of Scenedesmus obliquus: (II) evaluation of TAG yield and productivity in controlled photobioreactors

Background Many microalgae accumulate carbohydrates simultaneously with triacylglycerol (TAG) upon nitrogen starvation, and these products compete for photosynthetic products and metabolites from the central carbon metabolism. As shown for starchless mutants of the non-oleaginous model alga Chlamydomonas reinhardtii, reduced carbohydrate synthesis can enhance TAG production. However, these mutants still have a lower TAG productivity than wild-type oleaginous microalgae. Recently, several starchless mutants of the oleaginous microalga Scenedesmus obliquus were obtained which showed improved TAG content and productivity. Results The most promising mutant, slm1, is compared in detail to wild-type S. obliquus in controlled photobioreactors. In the slm1 mutant, the maximum TAG content increased to 57¿±¿0.2% of dry weight versus 45¿±¿1% in the wild type. In the wild type, TAG and starch were accumulated simultaneously during initial nitrogen starvation, and starch was subsequently degraded and likely converted into TAG. The starchless mutant did not produce starch and the liberated photosynthetic capacity was directed towards TAG synthesis. This increased the maximum yield of TAG on light by 51%, from 0.144¿±¿0.004 in the wild type to 0.217¿±¿0.011 g TAG/mol photon in the slm1 mutant. No differences in photosynthetic efficiency between the slm1 mutant and the wild type were observed, indicating that the mutation specifically altered carbon partitioning while leaving the photosynthetic capacity unaffected. Conclusions The yield of TAG on light can be improved by 51% by using the slm1 starchless mutant of S. obliquus, and a similar improvement seems realistic for the areal productivity in outdoor cultivation. The photosynthetic performance is not negatively affected in the slm1 and the main difference with the wild type is an improved carbon partitioning towards TAG

The Complete Genome of Propionibacterium freudenreichii CIRM-BIA1T, a Hardy Actinobacterium with Food and Probiotic Applications

Background: Propionibacterium freudenreichii is essential as a ripening culture in Swiss-type cheeses and is also considered for its probiotic use [1]. This species exhibits slow growth, low nutritional requirements, and hardiness in many habitats. It belongs to the taxonomic group of dairy propionibacteria, in contrast to the cutaneous species P. acnes. The genome of the type strain, P. freudenreichii subsp. shermanii CIRM-BIA1 (CIP 103027T), was sequenced with an 11-fold coverage. Methodology/Principal Findings: The circular chromosome of 2.7 Mb of the CIRM-BIA1 strain has a GC-content of 67% and contains 22 different insertion sequences (3.5% of the genome in base pairs). Using a proteomic approach, 490 of the 2439 predicted proteins were confirmed. The annotation revealed the genetic basis for the hardiness of P. freudenreichii, as the bacterium possesses a complete enzymatic arsenal for de novo biosynthesis of aminoacids and vitamins (except panthotenate and biotin) as well as sequences involved in metabolism of various carbon sources, immunity against phages, duplicated chaperone genes and, interestingly, genes involved in the management of polyphosphate, glycogen and trehalose storage. The complete biosynthesis pathway for a bifidogenic compound is described, as well as a high number of surface proteins involved in interactions with the host and present in other probiotic bacteria. By comparative genomics, no pathogenicity factors found in P. acnes or in other pathogenic microbial species were identified in P. freudenreichii, which is consistent with the Generally Recognized As Safe and Qualified Presumption of Safety status of P. freudenreichii. Various pathways for formation of cheese flavor compounds were identified: the Wood-Werkman cycle for propionic acid formation, amino acid degradation pathways resulting in the formation of volatile branched chain fatty acids, and esterases involved in the formation of free fatty acids and esters. Conclusions/Significance: With the exception of its ability to degrade lactose, P. freudenreichii seems poorly adapted to dairy niches. This genome annotation opens up new prospects for the understanding of the P. freudenreichii probiotic activity

BrAPI-an application programming interface for plant breeding applications

Motivation: Modern genomic breeding methods rely heavily on very large amounts of phenotyping and genotyping data, presenting new challenges in effective data management and integration. Recently, the size and complexity of datasets have increased significantly, with the result that data are often stored on multiple systems. As analyses of interest increasingly require aggregation of datasets from diverse sources, data exchange between disparate systems becomes a challenge. Results: To facilitate interoperability among breeding applications, we present the public plant Breeding Application Programming Interface (BrAPI). BrAPI is a standardized web service API specification. The development of BrAPI is a collaborative, community-based initiative involving a growing global community of over a hundred participants representing several dozen institutions and companies. Development of such a standard is recognized as critical to a number of important large breeding system initiatives as a foundational technology. The focus of the first version of the API is on providing services for connecting systems and retrieving basic breeding data including germplasm, study, observation, and marker data. A number of BrAPI-enabled applications, termed BrAPPs, have been written, that take advantage of the emerging support of BrAPI by many databases

The economics of debt clearing mechanisms

We examine the evolution of decentralized clearinghouse mechanisms from the 13th to the 18th century; in particular, we explore the clearing of non- or limitedtradable debts like bills of exchange. We construct a theoretical model of these clearinghouse mechanisms, similar to the models in the theoretical matching literature, and show that specific decentralized multilateral clearing algorithms known as rescontre, skontrieren or virement des parties used by merchants were efficient in specific historical contexts. We can explain both the evolutionary self-organizing emergence of late medieval and early modern fairs, and its robustness during the 17th and 18th century