Modelling study of the impact of deep convection on the UTLS air composition – Part II: Ozone budget in the TTL avenue de la Recherche Scientifique, 45071 Orléans cedex 2, France

International audienceIn this second part of a series of two papers which aim to study the local impact of deep convection on the chemical composition of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS), we focus on ozone simulation results using a mesoscale model that includes on-line chemistry. A severe convective system observed on 8 February 2001 at Bauru, Brazil, is studied. We show that there is an increase in the ozone concentration in the tropical transitional layer (TTL) in the model during this event, which is compatible with ozone sonde observations from Bauru during the 2004 convective season. The model horizontal variability of ozone in this layer is comparable with the variability of the ozone sonde observations in the same area. The calculation of the ozone budget in the TTL shows that the ozone behaviour in this layer is mainly driven by dynamics. The upward motions at the bottom of the TTL, related to the convection activity is the main contributor to the budget since it can explain 75% of the total ozone increase in the TTL, while the chemical ozone production inside the TTL is estimated to be 23.5% of the ozone increase if NOx production by lightning (LNOx) is taken into account. It is shown that downward motions at the tropopause induced by gravity waves generated by deep convection are non negligible in the TTL ozone budget, since it represents 11% of the ozone increase. The correlation between the convection activity and the vertical flux at 13 km, the vertical flux at 17 km, and the chemical production is brought to the fore in this simulation

Modelling study of the impact of deep convection on the UTLS air composition – Part 2: Ozone budget in the TTL

International audienceIn this second part of a series of two papers which aim to study the local impact of deep convection on the chemical composition of the Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS), we focus on ozone simulation results using a mesoscale model that includes on-line chemistry. A severe convective system observed on 8 February 2001 at Bauru, Brazil, is studied. This unorganised convective system is composed of several convective cells that interact with each other. We show that there is an increase in the ozone concentration in the tropical transitional layer (TTL) in the model during this event, which is compatible with ozone sonde observations from Bauru during the 2004 convective season. The model horizontal variability of ozone in this layer is comparable with the variability of the ozone sonde observations in the same area. The calculation of the ozone budget in the TTL during a 24 h period in the area of the convective system shows that the ozone behaviour in this layer is mainly driven by dynamics. The horizontal flux at a specific time is the main contribution in the budget, since it drives the sign and the magnitude of the total ozone flux. However, when averaged over the 24 h period, the horizontal flux is smaller than the vertical fluxes, and leads to a net decrease of ozone molecule number of 23%. The upward motions at the bottom of the TTL, related to the convection activity is the main contributor to the budget over the 24h period since it can explain 70% of the total ozone increase in the TTL, while the chemical ozone production inside the TTL is estimated to be 29% of the ozone increase, if NOx production by lightning (LNOx) is taken into account. It is shown that downward motion at the tropopause induced by gravity waves generated by deep convection is non negligible in the TTL ozone budget, since it represents 24% of the ozone increase. The flux analysis shows the importance of the vertical contributions during the life time of the convective event (about 8 h). The TTL ozone is driven out of the domain horizontally by the convective outflow during this period, limiting the ozone increase in this layer

Modelling study of the impact of deep convection on the utls air composition - Part I: Analysis of ozone precursors

International audienceThe aim of this work is to study the local impact on the upper troposphere/lower stratosphere air composition of an extreme deep convective system. For this purpose, we performed a simulation of a convective cluster composed of many individual deep convective cells that occurred near Bauru (Brazil). The simulation is performed using the 3-D mesoscale model RAMS coupled on-line with a chemistry model. The comparisons with meteorological measurements show that the model produces meteorological fields generally consistent with the observations. The present paper (part I) is devoted to the analysis of the ozone precursors (CO, NOx and non-methane volatile organic compounds) and HOx in the UTLS. The simulation results show that the distribution of CO with altitude is closely related to the upward convective motions and consecutive outflow at the top of the convective cells leading to a bulge of CO between 7 km altitude and the tropopause (around 17 km altitude). The model results for CO are consistent with satellite-borne measurements at 700 hPa. The simulation also indicates enhanced amounts of NOx up to 2 ppbv in the 7–17 km altitude layer mainly produced by the lightning associated with the intense convective activity. For insoluble non-methane volatile organic compounds, the convective activity tends to significantly increase their amount in the 7–17 km layer by dynamical effects. During daytime in the presence of lightning NOx, this bulge is largely reduced in the upper part of the layer for reactive species (e.g. isoprene, ethene) because of their reactions with OH that is increased on average during daytime. Lightning NOx also impacts on the oxydizing capacity of the upper troposphere by reducing on average HOx, HO2, H2O2 and organic hydroperoxides. During the simulation time, the impact of convection on the air composition of the lower stratosphere is negligible for all ozone precursors although several of the simulated convective cells nearly reach the tropopause. There is no significant transport from the upper troposphere to the lower stratosphere, the isentropic barrier not being crossed by convection. The impact of the increase of ozone precursors and HOx in the upper troposphere on the ozone budget in the LS is discussed in part II of this series of papers

How realistic are air quality hindcasts driven by forcings from climate model simulations?

Predicting how European air quality could evolve over the next decades in the context of changing climate requires the use of climate models to produce results that can be averaged in a climatologically and statistically sound manner. This is a very different approach from the one that is generally used for air quality hindcasts for the present period; analysed meteorological fields are used to represent specifically each date and hour. Differences arise both from the fact that a climate model run results in a pure model output, with no influence from observations (which are useful to correct for a range of errors), and that in a "climate" set-up, simulations on a given day, month or even season cannot be related to any specific period of time (but can just be interpreted in a climatological sense). Hence, although an air quality model can be thoroughly validated in a "realistic" set-up using analysed meteorological fields, the question remains of how far its outputs can be interpreted in a "climate" set-up. For this purpose, we focus on Europe and on the current decade using three 5-yr simulations performed with the multiscale chemistry-transport model MOCAGE and use meteorological forcings either from operational meteorological analyses or from climate simulations. We investigate how statistical skill indicators compare in the different simulations, discriminating also the effects of meteorology on atmospheric fields (winds, temperature, humidity, pressure, etc.) and on the dependent emissions and deposition processes (volatile organic compound emissions, deposition velocities, etc.). Our results show in particular how differing boundary layer heights and deposition velocities affect horizontal and vertical distributions of species. When the model is driven by operational analyses, the simulation accurately reproduces the observed values of O<sub>3</sub>, NO<sub>x</sub>, SO<sub>2</sub> and, with some bias that can be explained by the set-up, PM<sub>10</sub>. We study how the simulations driven by climate forcings differ, both due to the realism of the forcings (lack of data assimilated and lower resolution) and due to the lack of representation of the actual chronology of events. We conclude that the indicators such as mean bias, mean normalized bias, RMSE and deviation standards can be used to interpret the results with some confidence as well as the health-related indicators such as the number of days of exceedance of regulatory thresholds. These metrics are thus considered to be suitable for the interpretation of simulations of the future evolution of European air quality

Modelling the reversible uptake of chemical species in the gas phase by ice particles formed in a convective cloud

The present paper is a preliminary study preparing the introduction of reversible trace gas uptake by ice particles into a 3-D cloud resolving model. For this a 3-D simulation of a tropical deep convection cloud was run with the BRAMS cloud resolving model using a two-moment bulk microphysical parameterization. Trajectories within the convective clouds were computed from these simulation outputs along which the variations of the pristine ice, snow and aggregate mixing ratios and concentrations were extracted. The reversible uptake of 11 trace gases by ice was examined assuming applicability of Langmuir isotherms using recently evaluated (IUPAC) laboratory data. The results show that ice uptake is only significant for HNO<sub>3</sub>, HCl, CH<sub>3</sub>COOH and HCOOH. For H<sub>2</sub>O<sub>2</sub>, using new results for the partition coefficient results in significant partitioning to the ice phase for this trace gas also. It was also shown that the uptake is largely dependent on the temperature for some species. The adsorption saturation at the ice surface for large gas mixing ratios is generally not a limiting factor except for HNO<sub>3</sub> and HCl for gas mixing ratio greater than 1 ppbv. For HNO<sub>3</sub>, results were also obtained using a trapping theory, resulting in a similar order of magnitude of uptake, although the two approaches are based on different assumptions. The results were compared to those obtained using a BRAMS cloud simulation based on a single-moment microphysical scheme instead of the two moment scheme. We found similar results with a slightly more important uptake when using the single-moment scheme which is related to slightly higher ice mixing ratios in this simulation. The way to introduce these results in the 3-D cloud model is discussed

Quantifying uncertainties due to chemistry modelling – evaluation of tropospheric composition simulations in the CAMS model (cycle 43R1)

We report on an evaluation of tropospheric ozone and its precursor gases in three atmospheric chemistry versions as implemented in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), referred to as IFS(CB05BASCOE), IFS(MOZART) and IFS(MOCAGE). While the model versions were forced with the same overall meteorology, emissions, transport and deposition schemes, they vary largely in their parameterisations describing atmospheric chemistry, including the organics degradation, heterogeneous chemistry and photolysis, as well as chemical solver. The model results from the three chemistry versions are compared against a range of aircraft field campaigns, surface observations, ozone-sondes and satellite observations, which provides quantification of the overall model uncertainty driven by the chemistry parameterisations. We find that they produce similar patterns and magnitudes for carbon monoxide (CO) and ozone (O3), as well as a range of non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs), with averaged differences for O3 (CO) within 10&thinsp;% (20&thinsp;%) throughout the troposphere. Most of the divergence in the magnitude of CO and NMHCs can be explained by differences in OH concentrations, which can reach up to 50&thinsp;%, particularly at high latitudes. There are also comparatively large discrepancies between model versions for NO2, SO2 and HNO3, which are strongly influenced by secondary chemical production and loss. Other common biases in CO and NMHCs are mainly attributed to uncertainties in their emissions. This configuration of having various chemistry versions within IFS provides a quantification of uncertainties induced by chemistry modelling in the main CAMS global trace gas products beyond those that are constrained by data assimilation.</p

Modelling the chemistry and transport of bromoform within a sea breeze driven convective system during the SHIVA Campaign

We carry out a case study of the transport and chemistry of bromoform and its product gases (PGs) in a sea breeze driven convective episode on 19 November 2011 along the North West coast of Borneo during the "Stratospheric ozone: Halogen Impacts in a Varying Atmosphere" (SHIVA) campaign. We use ground based, ship, aircraft and balloon sonde observations made during the campaign, and a 3-D regional online transport and chemistry model capable of resolving clouds and convection explicitly that includes detailed bromine chemistry. The model simulates the temperature, wind speed, wind direction fairly well for the most part, and adequately captures the convection location, timing, and intensity. The simulated transport of bromoform from the boundary layer up to 12 km compares well to aircraft observations to support our conclusions. The model makes several predictions regarding bromine transport from the boundary layer to the level of convective detrainment (11 to 12 km). First, the majority of bromine undergoes this transport as bromoform. Second, insoluble organic bromine carbonyl species are transported to between 11 and 12 km, but only form a small proportion of the transported bromine. Third, soluble bromine species, which include bromine organic peroxides, hydrobromic acid (HBr), and hypobromous acid (HOBr), are washed out efficiently within the core of the convective column. Fourth, insoluble inorganic bromine species (principally Br2) are not washed out of the convective column, but are also not transported to the altitude of detrainment in large quantities. We expect that Br2 will make a larger relative contribution to the total vertical transport of bromine atoms in scenarios with higher CHBr3 mixing ratios in the boundary layer, which have been observed in other regions. Finally, given the highly detailed description of the chemistry, transport and washout of bromine compounds within our simulations, we make a series of recommendations about the physical and chemical processes that should be represented in 3-D chemical transport models (CTMs) and chemistry climate models (CCMs), which are the primary theoretical means of estimating the contribution made by CHBr3 and other very short-lived substances (VSLS) to the stratospheric bromine budget

A new method (M³Fusion v1) for combining observations and multiple model output for an improved estimate of the global surface ozone distribution

We have developed a new statistical approach (M3Fusion) for combining surface ozone observations from thousands of monitoring sites around the world with the output from multiple atmospheric chemistry models to produce a global surface ozone distribution with greater accuracy than can be provided by any individual model. The ozone observations from 4766 monitoring sites were provided by the Tropospheric Ozone Assessment Report (TOAR) surface ozone database, which contains the world's largest collection of surface ozone metrics. Output from six models was provided by the participants of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) and NASA's Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO). We analyze the 6-month maximum of the maximum daily 8&thinsp;h average ozone value (DMA8) for relevance to ozone health impacts. We interpolate the irregularly spaced observations onto a fine-resolution grid by using integrated nested Laplace approximations and compare the ozone field to each model in each world region. This method allows us to produce a global surface ozone field based on TOAR observations, which we then use to select the combination of global models with the greatest skill in each of eight world regions; models with greater skill in a particular region are given higher weight. This blended model product is bias corrected within 2∘ of observation locations to produce the final fused surface ozone product. We show that our fused product has an improved mean squared error compared to the simple multi-model ensemble mean, which is biased high in most regions of the world.</p

Review of the global models used within the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI)

We present an overview of state-of-the-art chemistry-climate and -transport models that are used within the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). CCMI aims to conduct a detailed evaluation of participating models using process-oriented diagnostics derived from observations in order to gain confidence in the models’ projections of the stratospheric ozone layer, air quality, where applicable global climate change, and the interactions between them. Interpretation of these diagnostics requires detailed knowledge of the radiative, chemical, dynamical, and physical processes incorporated in the models. Also an understanding of the degree to which CCMI recommendations for simulations have been followed is necessary to understand model response to anthropogenic and natural forcing and also to explain inter-model differences. This becomes even more important given the ongoing development and the ever-growing complexity of these models. This paper also provides an overview of the available CCMI simulations with the aim to inform CCMI data users