Measuring systemic risk

We present a simple model of systemic risk and show how each financial institution’s contribution to systemic risk can be measured and priced. An institution’s contribution, denoted systemic expected shortfall (SES), is its propensity to be undercapitalized when the system as a whole is undercapitalized, which increases in its leverage, volatility, correlation, and tail-dependence. Institutions internalize their externality if they are “taxed” based on their SES. Through several examples, we demonstrate empirically the ability of components of SES to predict emerging systemic risk during the nancial crisis of 2007-2009.Systemic risk ; Risk

Zero Order Estimates for Analytic Functions

The primary goal of this paper is to provide a general multiplicity estimate. Our main theorem allows to reduce a proof of multiplicity lemma to the study of ideals stable under some appropriate transformation of a polynomial ring. In particular, this result leads to a new link between the theory of polarized algebraic dynamical systems and transcendental number theory. On the other hand, it allows to establish an improvement of Nesterenko's conditional result on solutions of systems of differential equations. We also deduce, under some condition on stable varieties, the optimal multiplicity estimate in the case of generalized Mahler's functional equations, previously studied by Mahler, Nishioka, Topfer and others. Further, analyzing stable ideals we prove the unconditional optimal result in the case of linear functional systems of generalized Mahler's type. The latter result generalizes a famous theorem of Nishioka (1986) previously conjectured by Mahler (1969), and simultaneously it gives a counterpart in the case of functional systems for an important unconditional result of Nesterenko (1977) concerning linear differential systems. In summary, we provide a new universal tool for transcendental number theory, applicable with fields of any characteristic. It opens the way to new results on algebraic independence, as shown in Zorin (2010).Comment: 42 page

Structure of TiAlN Reactive Sputtered Coatings

The Raman spectra, X-ray diffraction and hardness of the TiAlN films co-deposited on the steel substrates by reactive sputtering from Ti and Al targets in a mixture of N2 + Ar gas with two magnetrons at room temperature have been studied. From Raman spectra it is found that the position of high-frequency bands in vibrational spectra was located at 700-730 cm 1 or in the region of 830 850 cm 1 depending on the deposition parameters whereas it is not exceed 630 cm 1 from TiAlN of NaCl structure. It is found the two-phase structure of coatings: a small quantity of NaCl-type structure of TiAlN (TiN) and the disordered structure of the chains of polyhedra [TiNx] with x = 5 and x = 4. The chains of polyhedra [TiNx] with x = 4 are mainly formed at large discharge power of Al(Ti) target or at small content of N2 gas. When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/2492

Dio-sensimedia: a novel culture medium for rapid detection of extended spectrum β-lactamases

BACKGROUND: Resistance to contemporary broad-spectrum β-lactams, mediated by extended-spectrum β-lactamases (ESBL), is an increasing problem worldwide. Many of the emerging antimicrobial resistance problems of this decade have been characterized by difficulty in the recognition of resistance in the laboratory, particularly by rapid susceptibility test methods. The plasmid-encoded ESBL represent such a resistance phenomenon that is difficult to recognize. We compared Dio-Sensimedia-ES (DSM-ES; Diomed, Istanbul, Turkey) and Mueller-Hinton (MH) agar in the double-disk synergy test (DDST) as a novel rapid system for detecting ESBL directly from bacterial culture. METHODS: Sixty ESBL-producing Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates cultured from blood (30), endotracheal aspirates (20), urine (5) and pus (5), as well as 40 Escherichia coli isolates cultured from endotracheal aspirates (15), urine (10), blood (8) and pus (7) were studied. Isolates positive for ESBL by the combined disk tests were tested with the DDST using MH and DSM-ES agar to detect ESBL-mediated resistance in K. pneumoniae and E. coli. DSM-ES agar was also used to determine the susceptibility of Enterobacteriaceae and staphylococci. RESULTS: Among 60 ESBL-producing K. pneumoniae isolates, 59 (98.3%) were identified as ESBL-positive by the DDST using MH, and 58 (96.6%), using DSM-ES agar. Of 40 ESBL-producing E. coli isolates, 38 (95%) were ESBL-positive by the DDST on MH agar, and 37 (92.5%), on DSM-ES agar. The average incubation period required for ESBL detection by the DDST on DSM-ES agar was 4 hours. CONCLUSIONS: Since the DDST results were available within 4 hours when DSM-ES agar was used, the use of this media may significantly lower the length of hospital stay, the total cost for patient care and even the mortality rate by fascilitating early treatment against ESBL-producing organisms

Elliptic logarithms, diophantine approximation and the Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer conjecture

Most, if not all, unconditional results towards the abc-conjecture rely ultimately on classical Baker's method. In this article, we turn our attention to its elliptic analogue. Using the elliptic Baker's method, we have recently obtained a new upper bound for the height of the S-integral points on an elliptic curve. This bound depends on some parameters related to the Mordell-Weil group of the curve. We deduce here a bound relying on the conjecture of Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer, involving classical, more manageable quantities. We then study which abc-type inequality over number fields could be derived from this elliptic approach.Comment: 20 pages. Some changes, the most important being on Conjecture 3.2, three references added ([Mas75], [MB90] and [Yu94]) and one reference updated [BS12]. Accepted in Bull. Brazil. Mat. So

Antarctic temperature changes during the last millennium: evaluation of simulations and reconstructions

Temperature changes in Antarctica over the last millennium are investigated using proxy records, a set of simulations driven by natural and anthropogenic forcings and one simulation with data assimilation. Over Antarctica, a long term cooling trend in annual mean is simulated during the period 1000–1850. The main contributor to this cooling trend is the volcanic forcing, astronomical forcing playing a dominant role at seasonal timescale. Since 1850, all the models produce an Antarctic warming in response to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations. We present a composite of Antarctic temperature, calculated by averaging seven temperature records derived from isotope measurements in ice cores. This simple approach is supported by the coherency displayed between model results at these data grid points and Antarctic mean temperature. The composite shows a weak multi-centennial cooling trend during the pre-industrial period and a warming after 1850 that is broadly consistent with model results. In both data and simulations, large regional variations are superimposed on this common signal, at decadal to centennial timescales. The model results appear spatially more consistent than ice core records. We conclude that more records are needed to resolve the complex spatial distribution of Antarctic temperature variations during the last millennium

Beyond the disk: EUV coronagraphic observations of the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager on board Solar Orbiter

Context. Most observations of the solar corona beyond 2 R consist of broadband visible light imagery carried out with coronagraphs. The associated diagnostics mainly consist of kinematics and derivations of the electron number density. While the measurement of the properties of emission lines can provide crucial additional diagnostics of the coronal plasma (temperatures, velocities, abundances, etc.), these types of observations are comparatively rare. In visible wavelengths, observations at these heights are limited to total eclipses. In the ultraviolet (UV) to extreme UV (EUV) range, very few additional observations have been achieved since the pioneering results of the Ultraviolet Coronagraph Spectrometer (UVCS). Aims. One of the objectives of the Full Sun Imager (FSI) channel of the Extreme Ultraviolet Imager (EUI) on board the Solar Orbiter mission has been to provide very wide field-of-view EUV diagnostics of the morphology and dynamics of the solar atmosphere in temperature regimes that are typical of the lower transition region and of the corona. Methods. FSI carries out observations in two narrowbands of the EUV spectrum centered on 17.4 nm and 30.4 nm that are dominated, respectively, by lines of FeIX/X (formed in the corona around 1 MK) and by the resonance line of HeII (formed around 80 kK in the lower transition region). Unlike previous EUV imagers, FSI includes a moveable occulting disk that can be inserted in the optical path to reduce the amount of instrumental stray light to a minimum. Results. FSI detects signals at 17.4 nm up to the edge of its field of view (7 R), which is about twice further than was previously possible. Operation at 30.4 nm are for the moment compromised by an as-yet unidentified source of stray light. Comparisons with observations by the LASCO and Metis coronagraphs confirm the presence of morphological similarities and differences between the broadband visible light and EUV emissions, as documented on the basis of prior eclipse and space-based observations. Conclusions. The very-wide-field observations of FSI out to about 3 and 7 R, without and with the occulting disk, respectively, are paving the way for future dedicated instruments