Topographic thresholds in gully development on the hillslopes of communal areas in Ngqushwa Local Municipality, Eastern Cape, South Africa

The relationships between the spatial distribution of gully erosion and topographic thresholds in the form of slope angle, position and configuration, as well as land use change in the form of abandoned lands were examined in several affected catchments of the Eastern Cape Province, South Africa. Land use and permanent gullies were mapped, digitized from orthophoto maps in Arc/info 3.5.2 GIS and converted to shapefiles using ArcView 3.2 GIS. Relationships between the mapped phenomena and topographic variables were sought using a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) in Idrisi Kilimanjaro GIS. A comparison between areas with a high potential for gullying and actual gully erosion was made using the Stream Power Index (SPI) as a surrogate for critical flow shear stress. Field surveys were also conducted to assess the present condition of the gullied sites as well as to validate DEM derivations. Seventy five percent of the gullied area was noted to lie on abandoned lands. A predominance of gullying in concave bottom lands was also identified. The SPI values highlighted a distinct preferential topographic zone for gully location. A conceptual model depicting the interaction between land use and topographic parameters to induce gully erosion was developed. This should assist local authorities to develop a policy regarding management of abandoned lands

Topographic controls on the invasion of Pteronia incana (Blue bush) onto hillslopes in Ngqushwa (formerly Peddie) district, Eastern Cape, South Africa

The role of topographic factors in the invasion of hillslopes by Pteronia incana, an unpalatable shrub, was investigated. The study combined field observations with image analysis based on high-resolution infrared imagery. A Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of 20 m spatial resolution was used to derive terrain parameters. The Topographic Wetness Index (WI), a component of the TOPMODEL, was derived from the DEM and its relationship with the spatial distribution of P. incana was explored. The absence/presence of P. incana was noted to be strongly influenced by slope angle and aspect. The probability for P. incana occurrence increased with slope steepness and southerly slope orientation. Abandoned and grazing lands were identified as the main invasion hotspots on hillslopes. The combined influence of slope gradient and aspect, and land use was noted to have promoted the invasion. This is borne out by the concentration of the invasion on abandoned steep slopes with a southerly orientation. The WI confirmed the bearing local topographic variations have on P. incana spatial distribution such that, P. incana was associated with the low WI values of convexities. The coupling between local topography and soil surface crusting underpins soil moisture variability. This in turn determines the competition between the patchy P. incana and grass species and the eventual replacement of the latter by the former. Restoration efforts of the invaded lands should focus on trapping of sediment and litter, and moisture retention on the inter-patch bare areas

Degradation of communal rangelands in South Africa: towards an improved understanding to inform policy

In South Africa, the relative extent of range degradation under freehold compared to communal tenure has been strongly debated. We present a perspective on the processes that drive rangeland degradation on land under communal tenure. Our findings are based on literature as well as extensive field work on both old communal lands and ‘released’ areas, where freehold farms have been transferred to communal ownership. We discuss the patterns of degradation that have accompanied communal stewardship and make recommendations on the direction policy should follow to prevent further degradation and mediate rehabilitation of existing degraded land.Keywords: communal rangelands, land degradation, rehabilitation, social systemsAfrican Journal of Range & Forage Science 2013, 30(1&2): 57–6

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Inferring HIV-1 transmission networks and sources of epidemic spread in Africa with deep-sequence phylogenetic analysis

To prevent new infections with human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) in sub-Saharan Africa, UNAIDS recommends targeting interventions to populations that are at high risk of acquiring and passing on the virus. Yet it is often unclear who and where these ‘source’ populations are. Here we demonstrate how viral deep-sequencing can be used to reconstruct HIV-1 transmission networks and to infer the direction of transmission in these networks. We are able to deep-sequence virus from a large population-based sample of infected individuals in Rakai District, Uganda, reconstruct partial transmission networks, and infer the direction of transmission within them at an estimated error rate of 16.3% [8.8–28.3%]. With this error rate, deep-sequence phylogenetics cannot be used against individuals in legal contexts, but is sufficiently low for population-level inferences into the sources of epidemic spread. The technique presents new opportunities for characterizing source populations and for targeting of HIV-1 prevention interventions in Africa