Hydrodynamic modeling in the channel network of Venice

A combined framework of hydrodynamic models is presented that describes the water dynamics in the channel network of the city of Venice. The application of these hydrodynamic models is part of a larger project carried out by UNESCO that has the aim of describing the water quality of the channels in Venice. An existing 2-dimensional finite element model simulates the hydrodynamic features in the Venice Lagoon. The simulated data is then used as the boundary condition for the 1-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the inner channels of Venice. Inside the channel system the water elevation and the current velocities are computed. The simulated variables are calibrated and compared with data from field measurements that UNESCO has carried out during the years 1990-92 and during 1998. It was possible to use a constant friction parameter for all the channels in the network. Simulated water elevation shows an excellent agreement with the measured data, and also current velocities are generally reproduced quite faithfully. Some low-energy channels show major errors in the reproduction of the velocity speed. It is believed that changing bathymetry (silting-up of the channels) could be a cause of this phenomenon. The hydrodynamic data will eventually be used in the second part of the project where the water quality of the channel network will be investigated. For this purpose the hydrodynamic parameters simulated will be used by the water quality model as a boundary and initial condition in order to simulate the biological and chemical variables and to describe the ecological dynamics

Venice flooding and sea level: past evolution, present issues, and future projections (introduction to the special issue)

Venice is an iconic place and a paradigm of huge historical and cultural values at risk. The frequency of the flooding of the city centre has dramatically increased in recent decades, and this threat is expected to continue to grow – and even accelerate – through this century. This special issue is a collection of three review articles addressing different and complementary aspects of the hazards causing the floods of Venice, namely (1) the relative sea level rise, (2) the occurrence of extreme water heights, and (3) the prediction of extreme water heights and floods. It emerges that the effect of compound events poses critical challenges to the forecast of floods, particularly from the perspective of effectively operating the new mobile barriers (Modulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico – MoSE) in Venice and that the relative sea level rise is the key factor determining the future growth of the flood hazard, so that the present defence strategy is likely to become inadequate within this century under a high-emission scenario. Two strands of research are needed in the future. First, there is a need to better understand and reduce the uncertainty of the future evolution of the relative sea level and its extremes at Venice. However, this uncertainty might not be substantially reduced in the near future, reflecting the uncertain anthropogenic emissions and structural model features. Hence, complementary adaptive planning strategies appropriate for conditions of uncertainty should be explored and developed in the future

A flexible <i>z</i>-layers approach for the accurate representation of free surface flows in a coastal ocean model (SHYFEM v. 7_5_71)

We propose a discrete multilayer shallow water model based on z-layers, which, thanks to the insertion and removal of surface layers, can deal with an arbitrarily large tidal oscillation independently of the vertical resolution. The algorithm is based on a classical two-step procedure used in numerical simulations with moving boundaries (grid movement followed by a grid topology change, that is, the insertion/removal of surface layers), which avoids the appearance of surface layers with very small or negative thickness. With ad hoc treatment of advection terms at nonconformal edges that may appear owing to insertion/removal operations, mass conservation and the compatibility of the tracer equation with the continuity equation are preserved at a discrete level. This algorithm called z-surface-adaptive, can be reduced, as a particular case when all layers are moving, to the z-star coordinate. With idealized and realistic numerical experiments, we compare the z-surface-adaptive against z-star and we show that it can be used to simulate coastal flows effectively.</p

Evaluating meteorological climate model inputs to improve coastal hydrodynamic studies

Abstract. This work compares meteorological results from different regional climate model (RCM) implementations in the Mediterranean area, with a focus on the northern Adriatic Sea. The need to use these datasets as atmospheric forcings (wind and atmospheric pressure fields) for coastal hydrodynamic models to assess future changes in the coastal hydrodynamics, is the basis of the presented analysis. It would allow the assessment of uncertainties due to atmospheric forcings in providing coastal current, surge and wave climate changes from future implementations of hydrodynamic models. Two regional climate models, with different spatial resolutions, downscaled from two different global climate models (whose atmospheric components are, respectively, ECHAM4 and ECHAM5), were considered. In particular, the RCM delivered wind and atmospheric pressure fields were compared with measurements at four stations along the Italian Adriatic coast. The analyses were conducted using a past control period, 1960–1990, and the A1B IPCC future scenario (2070–2100). The chosen scenario corresponds to a world of very rapid economic and demographic growth that peaks in mid-century, with a rapid introduction of new efficient technologies, which balance fossil and non-fossil resources (IPCC, 2007). Consideration is given to the accuracy of each model at reproducing the basic statistics and the trends. The role of models' spatial resolution in reproducing global and local scale meteorological processes is also discussed. The Adriatic Sea climate is affected by the orography that produces a strengthening of north-eastern katabatic winds like bora. Therefore, spatial model resolution, both for orography and for a better resolution of coastline (Cavaleri et al., 2010), is one of the important factors in providing more realistic wind forcings for future hydrodynamic models implementations. However, also the characteristics in RCM setup and parameterization can explain differences between the datasets. The analysis from an ensemble of model implementation would provide more robust indications on climatic wind and atmospheric pressure variations. The scenario-control comparison shows a general increase in the mean atmospheric pressure values while a decrease in mean wind speed and in extreme wind events is seen, particularly for the datasets with higher spatial resolution

Seasonal renewal time variability in the Curonian Lagoon caused by atmospheric and hydrographical forcing

The aim of this study was to investigate the variability of the water exchanges in the Curonian Lagoon based on the hydraulic regime and the atmospheric forcings. A finite element hydrodynamic model has been applied to the Curonian Lagoon to simulate the circulation patterns for 10 years. With the help of a transport–diffusion model, the salinity distribution and the renewal times of the Curonian Lagoon have been investigated when forced by river runoff, wind, and Baltic Sea level fluctuations. The hydrodynamic model has been validated using in situ salinity measurements. Model results show that the variability depends mainly on seasonal changes in hydrographic forcing and on the dominant wind regimes that prevail over the Curonian Lagoon. Exchanges between the southern and the northern part of the lagoon mostly depend on the wind forcing and are much less influenced by the river discharge. However, when looking at the water renewal time, the most important factor is the river discharge into the lagoon. Other physical forcings only marginally determine the renewal time, and not even ice cover is able to influence it. Even if ice cover strongly inhibits the exchanges between the southern and northern lagoon, it is basically not able to change the absolute value of the renewal times

Downscaling With an Unstructured Coastal-Ocean Model to the Goro Lagoon and the Po River Delta Branches

The Goro Lagoon Finite Element Model (GOLFEM) presented in this paper concentrates on the high-resolution downscaled model of the Goro Lagoon, along with five Po river branches and the coastal area of the Po delta in the northern Adriatic Sea (Italy) where crucial socio-economic activities take place. GOLFEM was validated by means of validation scores (bias – BIAS, root mean square error – RMSE, and mean absolute error – MAE) for the water level, current velocity, salinity and temperature measured at several fixed stations in the lagoon. The range of scores at the stations are: for temperature between −0.8 to +1.2°C, for salinity from −0.2 to 5 PSU, for sea level 0.1 m. The lagoon is dominated by an estuarine vertical circulation due to a double opening at the lagoon mouth and sustained by multiple sources of freshwater inputs. The non-linear interactions among the tidal forcing, the wind and the freshwater inputs affect the lagoon circulation at both seasonal and daily time scales. The sensitivity of the circulation to the forcings was analyzed with several sensitivity experiments done with the exclusion of the tidal forcing and different configurations of the river connections. GOLFEM was designed to resolve the lagoon dynamics at high resolution in order to evaluate the potential effects on the clam farming of two proposed scenarios of human intervention on the morphology of the connection with the sea. We calculated the changes of the lagoon current speed and salinity, and using opportune fitness indexes related to the clams physiology, we quantified analytically the effects of the interventions in terms of extension and persistence of areas of the clams optimal growth. The results demonstrate that the correct management of this kind of fragile environment relies on both long-term (intervention scenarios) and short-term (coastal flooding forecasts and potential anoxic conditions) modeling, based on a flexible tool that is able to consider all the recorded human interventions on the river connections. This study also demonstrates the importance of designing a seamless chain of models that are capable of integrating local effects into the coarser operational oceanographic models

Sea-level rise in Venice: historic and future trends (review article)

The city of Venice and the surrounding lagoonal ecosystem are highly vulnerable to variations in relative sea level. In the past ∼150 years, this was characterized by an average rate of relative sea-level rise of about 2.5 mm/year resulting from the combined contributions of vertical land movement and sea-level rise. This literature review reassesses and synthesizes the progress achieved in quantification, understanding and prediction of the individual contributions to local relative sea level, with a focus on the most recent studies. Subsidence contributed to about half of the historical relative sea-level rise in Venice. The current best estimate of the average rate of sea-level rise during the observational period from 1872 to 2019 based on tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence effects is 1.23 ± 0.13 mm/year. A higher – but more uncertain – rate of sea-level rise is observed for more recent years. Between 1993 and 2019, an average change of about +2.76 ± 1.75 mm/year is estimated from tide-gauge data after removal of subsidence. Unfortunately, satellite altimetry does not provide reliable sea-level data within the Venice Lagoon. Local sea-level changes in Venice closely depend on sea-level variations in the Adriatic Sea, which in turn are linked to sea-level variations in the Mediterranean Sea. Water mass exchange through the Strait of Gibraltar and its drivers currently constitute a source of substantial uncertainty for estimating future deviations of the Mediterranean mean sea-level trend from the global-mean value. Regional atmospheric and oceanic processes will likely contribute significant interannual and interdecadal future variability in Venetian sea level with a magnitude comparable to that observed in the past. On the basis of regional projections of sea-level rise and an understanding of the local and regional processes affecting relative sea-level trends in Venice, the likely range of atmospherically corrected relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100 ranges between 32 and 62 cm for the RCP2.6 scenario and between 58 and 110 cm for the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. A plausible but unlikely high-end scenario linked to strong ice-sheet melting yields about 180 cm of relative sea-level rise in Venice by 2100. Projections of human-induced vertical land motions are currently not available, but historical evidence demonstrates that they have the potential to produce a significant contribution to the relative sea-level rise in Venice, exacerbating the hazard posed by climatically induced sea-level changes

Flood Protection in Venice under Conditions of Sea-Level Rise: An Analysis of Institutional and Technical Measures

It is widely acknowledged that in times of climate change loss of coastal resources and risk for human life can be minimized by implementing adaptation strategies. Such strategies need to encompass a balanced mix of non-structural (institutional) and structural (technical) measures based on sound scientific knowledge. This article discusses measures carried out to protect the city of Venice, Italy from flooding (locally known as “high water”), and reflects on their ability to anticipate a possible acceleration of sea-level rise as induced by climate change. It is based on scientific literature, legislative and policy documents of key institutions, reports and documents of organizations working on Venice issues, newspaper articles, and interviews. Our analysis shows that the synergic action of the hydraulic defense infrastructure under construction is in principle adequate to withstand a broad range of sea-level rise scenarios for the next 100 years. However, when the goal is to use these investments effectively major changes in the existing institutional arrangements will be required in the years to come. The Venice findings point out the difficulties and yet the importance of identifying and implementing both non-structural and structural measures to adapt to climate change

From citizen science to jellyfish dispersion models and molecular studies : tracking the progress of jellyfish science in Malta (Central Mediterranean)

Following participation within the 1980”s FAO-mediated monitoring exercises of Pelagia noctiluca blooms within Maltese waters, little scientific effort was invested in studying the dynamics of jellyfish blooms within same waters and at developing management and public information strategies concerning the same blooms. A renewed scientific effort at studying such aspects within Maltese waters was registered from 2010 onwards, with the launch of the Spot the Jellyfish citizen science campaign (www.ioikids.net/jellyfish) which provided a user-friendly, multivalent and web-based through which maritime stakehold- ers and the public at large could submit their jellyfish records for Maltese waters. The web- based portal was also supported by other promotional initiatives in the field, such as the installation of seaside boards on beaches. Through this initiative, several previously-un- documented species of gelatinous plankton were recorded for the first time from the same waters, including Rhopilema nomadica, Aequorea forskalea, Porpita porpita, Discomedua lobata, Geryonia proboscidalis, Neotima lucullana, Physophora hydrostatica, Chrysaora hysoscella and Oceania armata. The maintenance of an updated jellyfish record database has been made possible through the conduction of such a citizen science initiative.peer-reviewe

The prediction of floods in Venice: methods, models and uncertainty (review article)

This paper reviews the state of the art in storm surge forecasting and its particular application in the northern Adriatic Sea. The city of Venice already depends on operational storm surge forecasting systems to warn the population and economy of imminent flood threats, as well as help to protect the extensive cultural heritage. This will be more important in the future, with the new mobile barriers called MOSE (MOdulo Sperimentale Elettromeccanico, Experimental Electromechanical Module) that will be completed by 2021. The barriers will depend on accurate storm surge forecasting to control their operation. In this paper, the physics behind the flooding of Venice is discussed, and the state of the art of storm surge forecasting in Europe is reviewed. The challenges for the surge forecasting systems are analyzed, especially in view of uncertainty. This includes consideration of selected historic extreme events that were particularly difficult to forecast. Four potential improvements are identified: (1) improve meteorological forecasts, (2) develop ensemble forecasting, (3) assimilation of water level measurements and (4) develop a multimodel approach