Building capacities for transformative change towards sustainability: Imagination in Intergovernmental Science-Policy Scenario Processes

Scenario development has been recognized as a potential method to explore future change and stimulate a reflective process that can contribute to more informed decision-making. The assessment process under IPBES (the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) has however shown that the current predominantly biophysical and economic models and scenario processes for exploring the future of biodiversity, ecosystem services and their contributions to human wellbeing are insufficient to capture the complexity and context-specific nature of the problems facing these sectors. Several important challenges have been identified that require a more in-depth analysis of where more imaginative scenario efforts can be undertaken to address this gap. In this paper, we identify six key characteristics necessary for scenario processes: adaptability across diverse contexts, inclusion of diverse knowledge and value systems, legitimate stakeholder engagement that foregrounds the role of power and politics, an ability to grapple with uncertainty, individual and collective thinking mechanisms and relevance to policy making. We compared four cases of imaginative, arts-based scenario processes that each offer aspects of meeting these criteria. These approaches emphasise the importance of engaging the imagination of those involved in a process and harnessing it as a tool for identifying and conceptualising more transformative future trajectories. Drawing on the existing literature, we argue that there is value in fostering more inclusive and creative participatory processes that acknowledge the importance of understanding multiple value systems and relationships in order to reimagine a more inclusive and just future. Based on this, we reflect on future research to understand the transformative role that imagination can play in altering and enhancing knowledge-making for global assessments, including IPBES. We conclude that creative scenario co-development processes that promote imagination and create an opening for more empathetic responses should be considered as complementary tools within the suite of methodologies used for future IPBES scenario development

Water quality and its interlinkages with the Sustainable Development Goals

Interlinkages among the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) lead to important trade-offs and synergies among the goals and their underlying targets. The aim of this paper is to review the role of water quality as an agent of interlinkages among the SDGs. It was found that there are a small number of explicit interconnections, but many more inferred interlinkages between water quality and various targets. A review of case studies showed that interlinkages operate from the municipal to near global scales, that their importance is likely to increase in developing countries, and that new SDG indicators are needed to monitor them. The analysis identifies many different SDG target areas where a combined effort between the water quality community and other sectors would bring mutual benefits in achieving the water quality and other targets

Benthic habitat modelling and mapping as a conservation tool for marine protected areas: A seamount in the western Mediterranean

1. An ecologically representative, well‐connected, and effectively managed system of marine protected areas (MPAs) has positive ecological and environmental effects as well as social and economic benefits. Although progress in expanding the coverage of MPAs has been made, the application of management tools has not yet been implemented in most of these areas. 2. In this work, distribution models were applied to nine benthic habitats on a Mediterranean seamount within an MPA for conservation purposes. Benthic habitat occurrences were identified from 55 remotely operated vehicle (ROV) transects, at depths from 76 to 700 m, and data derived from multibeam bathymetry. Generalized additive models (GAMs) were applied to link the presence of each benthic habitat to local environmental proxies (depth, slope, backscatter, aspect, and bathymetric position index, BPI). 3. The main environmental drivers of habitat distribution were depth, slope, and BPI. Based on this result, five different geomorphological areas were distinguished. A full coverage map indicating the potential benthic habitat distribution on the seamount was obtained to inform spatial management. 4. The distribution of those habitats identified as vulnerable marine ecosystems (VMEs) was used to make recommendations on zonation for developing the management plan of the MPA. This process reveals itself as an appropriate methodological approach that can be developed in other areas of the Natura 2000 marine networkEn prensa1,92

Modelling public health benefits of various emission control options to reduce NO2 concentrations in Guangzhou

The local government of the megacity of Guangzhou, China, has established an annual average NO2 concentration target of 40 μg m−3 to achieve by 2020. However, the Guangzhou Ambient Air Quality Compliance Plan does not specify what constitutes compliance with this target. We investigated a range of ambition levels for emissions reductions required to meet different possible interpretations of compliance using a hybrid dispersion and land-use regression model approach. We found that to reduce average annual-mean NO2 concentration across all current monitoring sites to below 40 μg m−3 (i.e. a compliance assessment approach that does not use modelling) would require emissions reductions from all source sectors within Guangzhou of 60%, whilst to attain 40 μg m−3 everywhere in Guangzhou (based on model results) would require all-source emissions reduction of 90%. Reducing emissions only from the traffic sector would not achieve either interpretation of the target. We calculated the impacts of the emissions reductions on NO2-atttributable premature mortality to illustrate that policy assessment based only on assessment against a fixed concentration target does not account for the full public health improvements attained. Our approach and findings are relevant for NO2 air pollution control policy making in other megacities

From urban meteorology, climate and environment research to integrated city services

Accelerating growth of urban populations, especially in developing countries, has become a driving force of human development. Crowded cities are centres of creativity and economic progress, but polluted air, flooding and other climate impacts, means they also face major weather, climate and environment-related challenges. Increasingly dense, complex and interdependent urban systems leave cities vulnerable: a single extreme event can lead to a widespread breakdown of a city’s infrastructure often through domino effects. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) recognizes that rapid urbanization necessitates new types of services which make the best use of science and technology and considers the challenge of delivering these as one of the main priorities for the meteorological community. Such Integrated Urban Weather, Environment and Climate Services should assist cities in facing hazards such as storm surges, flooding, heat waves, and air pollution episodes, especially in changing climates. The aim is to build urban services that meet the special needs of cities through a combination of dense observation networks, high-resolution forecasts, multi-hazard early warning systems, and climate services for reducing emissions, that will enable the building of resilient, thriving sustainable cities that promote the Sustainable Development Goals. A number of recent international studies have been initiated to explore these issues. The paper provides a brief overview of recent WMO and collaborators research programs and activities in urban hydrometeorology, climate and air pollution; describes the novel concept of urban integrated weather, climate and environment related services; and highlights research needs for their realisation

Innovation for green industrialisation: an empirical assessment of innovation in Ethiopia’s cement, leather and textile sectors

Ethiopia has recently committed to economic transformation and industrialisation through a low-carbon development trajectory. Existing literature highlights innovation as a critical driver of industrialisation, and the need for ‘green’ innovations to improve resource productivity and reduce pollution. However, empirical studies investigating the nexus between green innovation systems and industrialisation in developing countries are limited. Based on nine semi-structured interviews and a survey of 117 firms, this paper assesses sectoral systems of innovation in Ethiopia’s cement, leather and textile sectors, with a view to understanding their functioning toward supporting green industrialisation. Results revealed low rates of product and process innovations among firms in Ethiopia. The main inhibitors of innovation are high costs of technology, inadequate finance and limited information. Improving competitiveness is the main driver of firms’ innovation, while reducing environmental impacts and meeting environmental regulations were among the least important motivators. Moreover, interactions among firms, government and other actors encourage innovation. The study therefore suggests enhancing coordination among key actors, providing financial incentives for firms, and enforcing environmental regulations