Do individual judgment biases diminish in markets?:The case of partition-dependence in prediction markets

Psychologische Studien haben gezeigt, dass sich individuelle Wahrscheinlichkeitseinschätzungen für ein bestimmtes Ereignis in Abhängigkeit von der gewählten Zerlegung des Zustandsraumes systematisch voneinander unterscheiden können (ein als „Partitionsabhängigkeit“ bekannter Framing-Effekt). Die vorliegende Dissertation zeigt, dass sich diese Verzerrungen auch auf Prognosemärkte übertragen können, auf denen mehrere informierte und anreizkompatibel entlohnte Marktteilnehmer gegenseitig Kontrakte handeln, die abhängig vom zukünftig eintretenden Umweltzustand unterschiedliche Auszahlungen generieren. Die Arbeit analysiert die Ergebnisse einer kontrollierten Laborstudie, eines Feldexperiments (Kontrakte auf die NBA Playoffs und die Fußball-WM) sowie Handelsdaten realer Märkte für makroökonomische Derivate. Die Ergebnisse belegen, dass es auf Prognosemärkten durchaus und dauerhaft zu Partitionsabhängigkeit und damit zu einer Beeinträchtigung der vielfach als sehr hoch eingestuften Prognosegüte kommen kann. Many psychology experiments show that individually judged probabilities of the same event can vary depending on the partition of the state space (a framing effect called “partition-dependence”). This dissertation finds that these biases transfer to competitive prediction markets in which multiple informed traders are provided economic incentives to buy and sell shares in claims that pay different amounts of money depending on the future state of the world that occurs. Results of a controlled lab study, a longer field experiment (betting on the NBA playoffs and the soccer World Cup), and naturally-occurring trading in macro-economic derivatives are analyzed. While previous research has suggested that prediction markets can provide excellent forecasts of uncertain future outcomes, the combined evidence presented here suggests that partition-dependence can exist and persist in lab and field prediction markets, thereby challenging the predictive accuracy of such markets

Comparative evaluation of the treatment efficacy of suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (SAHA) and paclitaxel in ovarian cancer cell lines and primary ovarian cancer cells from patients

BACKGROUND: In most patients with ovarian cancer, diagnosis occurs after the tumour has disseminated beyond the ovaries. In these cases, post-surgical taxane/platinum combination chemotherapy is the "gold standard". However, most of the patients experience disease relapse and eventually die due to the emergence of chemotherapy resistance. Histone deacetylase inhibitors are novel anticancer agents that hold promise to improve patient outcome. METHODS: We compared a prototypic histone deacetylase inhibitor, suberoylanilide hydroxamic acid (SAHA), and paclitaxel for their treatment efficacy in ovarian cancer cell lines and in primary patient-derived ovarian cancer cells. The primary cancer cells were isolated from malignant ascites collected from five patients with stage III ovarian carcinomas. Cytotoxic activities were evaluated by Alamar Blue assay and by caspase-3 activation. The ability of SAHA to kill drug-resistant 2780AD cells was also assessed. RESULTS: By employing the cell lines OVCAR-3, SK-OV-3, and A2780, we established SAHA at concentrations of 1 to 20 μM to be as efficient in inducing cell death as paclitaxel at concentrations of 3 to 300 nM. Consequently, we treated the patient-derived cancer cells with these doses of the drugs. All five isolates were sensitive to SAHA, with cell killing ranging from 21% to 63% after a 72-h exposure to 20 μM SAHA, while four of them were resistant to paclitaxel (i.e., <10% cell death at 300 nM paclitaxel for 72 hours). Likewise, treatment with SAHA led to an increase in caspase-3 activity in all five isolates, whereas treatment with paclitaxel had no effect on caspase-3 activity in three of them. 2780AD cells were responsive to SAHA but resistant to paclitaxel. CONCLUSION: These ex vivo findings raise the possibility that SAHA may prove effective in the treatment of paclitaxel-resistant ovarian cancer in vivo

CSF2-dependent monocyte education in the pathogenesis of ANCA-induced glomerulonephritis

OBJECTIVES: Myeloid cell activation by antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) is pivotal for necrotising vasculitis, including necrotising crescentic glomerulonephritis (NCGN). In contrast to neutrophils, the contribution of classical monocyte (CM) and non-classical monocyte (NCM) remains poorly defined. We tested the hypothesis that CMs contribute to antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated vasculitis (AAV) and that colony-stimulating factor-2 (CSF2, granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF)) is an important monocyte-directed disease modifier.METHODS: Myeloperoxidase (MPO)-immunised MPO(-/-) mice were transplanted with haematopoietic cells from wild-type (WT) mice, C-C chemokine receptor 2 (CCR2)(-/-) mice to abrogate CM, or transcription factor CCAAT-enhancer-binding protein beta (C/EBPß)(-/-) mice to reduce NCM, respectively. Monocytes were stimulated with CSF2, and CSF2 receptor subunit beta (CSF2rb)-deficient mice were used. Urinary monocytes and CSF2 were quantified and kidney expression was analysed. CSF2-blocking antibody was used in the nephrotoxic nephritis (NTN) model. RESULTS: Compared with WT mice, CCR2(-/-) chimeric mice showed reduced circulating CM and were protected from NCGN. C/EBPß(-/-) chimeric mice lacked NCM but developed NCGN similar to WT chimeric mice. Kidney and urinary CSF2 were upregulated in AAV mice. CSF2 increased the ability of ANCA-stimulated monocytes to generate interleukin-1ß and to promote T17(H) effector cell polarisation. CSF2rb(-/-) chimeric mice harboured reduced numbers of kidney T17(H) cells and were protected from NCGN. CSF2 neutralisation reduced renal damage in the NTN model. Finally, patients with active AAV displayed increased urinary CM numbers, CSF2 levels and expression of GM-CSF in infiltrating renal cells. CONCLUSIONS: CMs but not NCMs are important for inducing kidney damage in AAV. CSF2 is a crucial pathological factor by modulating monocyte proinflammatory functions and thereby T17(H) cell polarisation

Preventing carbon nanoparticle-induced lung inflammation reduces antigen-specific sensitization and subsequent allergic reactions in a mouse model

BACKGROUND: Exposure of the airways to carbonaceous nanoparticles can contribute to the development of immune diseases both via the aggravation of the allergic immune response in sensitized individuals and by adjuvant mechanisms during the sensitization against allergens. The cellular and molecular mechanisms involved in these adverse pathways are not completely understood. We recently described that the reduction of carbon nanoparticle-induced lung inflammation by the application of the compatible solute ectoine reduced the aggravation of the allergic response in an animal system. In the current study we investigated the influence of carbon nanoparticles on the sensitization of animals to ovalbumin via the airways. Ectoine was used as a preventive strategy against nanoparticle-induced neutrophilic lung inflammation. METHODS: Balb/c mice were repetitively exposed to the antigen ovalbumin after induction of airway inflammation by carbon nanoparticles, either in the presence or in the absence of ectoine. Allergic sensitization was monitored by measurement of immunoglobulin levels and immune responses in lung and lung draining lymph nodes after challenge. Furthermore the role of dendritic cells in the effect of carbon nanoparticles was studied in vivo in the lymph nodes but also in vitro using bone marrow derived dendritic cells. RESULTS: Animals exposed to antigen in the presence of carbon nanoparticles showed increased effects with respect to ovalbumin sensitization, to the allergic airway inflammation after challenge, and to the specific T(H)2 response in the lymph nodes. The presence of ectoine during the sensitization significantly reduced these parameters. The number of antigen-loaded dendritic cells in the draining lymph nodes was identified as a possible cause for the adjuvant effect of the nanoparticles. In vitro assays indicate that the direct interaction of the particles with dendritic cells is not able to trigger CCR7 expression, while this endpoint is achieved by lung lavage fluid from nanoparticle-exposed animals. CONCLUSIONS: Using the intervention strategy of applying ectoine into the airways of animals we were able to demonstrate the relevance of neutrophilic lung inflammation for the adjuvant effect of carbon nanoparticles on allergic sensitization. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12989-015-0093-5) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

Greenhouse gas emissions of realistic dietary choices in Denmark: the carbon footprint and nutritional value of dairy products

Background: Dairy products are important in a healthy diet due to their high nutritional value; they are, however, associated with relatively large greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) per kg product. When discussing the need to reduce the GHGE caused by the food system, it is crucial to consider the nutritional value of alternative food choices. Objective: The objective of this study was to elucidate the role of dairy products in overall nutrition and to clarify the effects of dietary choices on GHGE, and to combine nutritional value and GHGE data. Methods: We created eight dietary scenarios with different quantity of dairy products using data from the Danish National Dietary Survey (1995–2006). Nutrient composition and GHGE data for 71 highly consumed foods were used to estimate GHGE and nutritional status for each dietary scenario. An index was used to estimate nutrient density in relation to nutritional recommendation and climate impact for solid food items; high index values were those with the highest nutrient density scores in relation to the GHGE. Results: The high-dairy scenario resulted in 27% higher protein, 13% higher vitamin D; 55% higher calcium; 48% higher riboflavin; and 18% higher selenium than the non-dairy scenario. There was a significant correlation between changes in calcium and changes in vitamin D, selenium, and riboflavin content (P=0.0001) throughout all of the diets. The estimated GHGE for the dietary scenario with average-dairy consumption was 4,631 g CO2e/day. Conclusions: When optimizing a diet with regard to sustainability, it is crucial to account for the nutritional value and not solely focus on impact per kg product. Excluding dairy products from the diet does not necessarily mitigate climate change but in contrast may have nutritional consequences

Valproic acid inhibits adhesion of vincristine- and cisplatin-resistant neuroblastoma tumour cells to endothelium

Drug resistance to chemotherapy is often associated with increased malignancy in neuroblastoma (NB). In pursuit of alternative treatments for chemoresistant tumour cells, we tested the response of multidrug-resistant SKNSH and of vincristine (VCR)-, doxorubicin (DOX)-, or cisplatin (CDDP)-resistant UKF-NB-2, UKF-NB-3 or UKF-NB-6 NB tumour cell lines to valproic acid (VPA), a differentiation inducer currently in clinical trials. Drug resistance caused elevated NB adhesion (UKF-NB-2VCR, UKF-NB-2DOX, UKF-NB-2CDDP, UKF-NB-3VCR, UKF-NB-3CDDP, UKF-NB-6VCR, UKF-NB-6CDDP) to an endothelial cell monolayer, accompanied by downregulation of the adhesion receptor neural cell adhesion molecule (NCAM). Based on the UKF-NB-3 model, N-myc proteins were enhanced in UKF-NB-3VCR and UKF-NB-3CDDP, compared to the drug naïve controls. p73 was diminished, whereas the p73 isoform deltaNp73 was upregulated in UKF-NB-3VCR and UKF-NB-3CDDP. Valproic acid blocked adhesion of UKF-NB-3VCR and UKF-NB-3CDDP, but not of UKF-NB-3DOX, and induced the upregulation of NCAM surface expression, NCAM protein content and NCAM coding mRNA. Valproic acid diminished N-myc and enhanced p73 protein level, coupled with downregulation of deltaNp73 in UKF-NB-3VCR and UKF-NB-3CDDP. Valproic acid also reverted enhanced adhesion properties of drug-resistant UKF-NB-2, UKF-NB-6 and SKNSH cells, and therefore may provide an alternative approach to the treatment of drug-resistant NB by blocking invasive processes

Challenge clusters facing LCA in environmental decision-making—what we can learn from biofuels

Purpose Bioenergy is increasingly used to help meet greenhouse gas (GHG) and renewable energy targets. However, bioenergy’s sustainability has been questioned, resulting in increasing use of life cycle assessment (LCA). Bioenergy systems are global and complex, and market forces can result in significant changes, relevant to LCA and policy. The goal of this paper is to illustrate the complexities associated with LCA, with particular focus on bioenergy and associated policy development, so that its use can more effectively inform policymakers. Methods The review is based on the results from a series of workshops focused on bioenergy life cycle assessment. Expert submissions were compiled and categorized within the first two workshops. Over 100 issues emerged. Accounting for redundancies and close similarities in the list, this reduced to around 60 challenges, many of which are deeply interrelated. Some of these issues were then explored further at a policyfacing workshop in London, UK. The authors applied a rigorous approach to categorize the challenges identified to be at the intersection of biofuels/bioenergy LCA and policy. Results and discussion The credibility of LCA is core to its use in policy. Even LCAs that comply with ISO standards and policy and regulatory instruments leave a great deal of scope for interpretation and flexibility. Within the bioenergy sector, this has led to frustration and at times a lack of obvious direction. This paper identifies the main challenge clusters: overarching issues, application and practice and value and ethical judgments. Many of these are reflective of the transition from application of LCA to assess individual products or systems to the wider approach that is becoming more common. Uncertainty in impact assessment strongly influences planning and compliance due to challenges in assigning accountability, and communicating the inherent complexity and uncertainty within bioenergy is becoming of greater importance. Conclusions The emergence of LCA in bioenergy governance is particularly significant because other sectors are likely to transition to similar governance models. LCA is being stretched to accommodate complex and broad policy-relevant questions, seeking to incorporate externalities that have major implications for long-term sustainability. As policy increasingly relies on LCA, the strains placed on the methodology are becoming both clearer and impedimentary. The implications for energy policy, and in particular bioenergy, are large

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700