A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Open Access ArticleReliable estimates of future changes in extreme weather phenomena, such as tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds, are critical for climate change impact assessments and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. However, global and regional climate model outputs are often too coarse for direct use in these applications, with variables such as wind speed having truncated probability distributions compared to those of observations. This poses two problems: How canmodel-simulated variables best be adjusted to make themmore realistic? And how can such adjustments be used to make more reliable predictions of future changes in their distribution? This study investigates North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds from observations (1950- 2010) and regional climate model simulations (1995-2005 and 2045-55 at 12- and 36-km spatial resolutions). The wind speed distributions in these datasets are well represented by the Weibull distribution, albeit with different scale and shape parameters. A power-law transfer function is used to recalibrate the Weibull variables and obtain future projections of wind speeds. Two different strategies, bias correction and change factor, are tested by using 36-km model data to predict future 12-km model data (pseudo-observations). The strategies are also applied to the observations to obtain likely predictions of the future distributions of wind speeds. The strategies yield similar predictions of likely changes in the fraction of events within Saffir-Simpson categories-for example, an increase from 21% (1995-2005) to 27%-37% (2045-55) for category 3 or above events and an increase from 1.6% (1995- 2005) to 2.8%-9.8% (2045-55) for category 5 events. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by theWillis Research Network, the Research Program to Secure Energy for America, NSF EASM Grant S1048841, and the NCARWeather and Climate Assessment Science Program. We thank Sherrie Fredrick for extracting data, and Cindy Bruyère, James Done, and Ben Youngman for productive discussions that enhanced this research. We also thank Dr. Adam Monahan and one anonymous reviewer for their insightful comments and suggestions

The combined molecular adjuvant CASAC enhances the CD8+ T cell response to a tumor-associated self-antigen in aged, immunosenescent mice

BACKGROUND: Ineffective induction of T cell mediated immunity in older individuals remains a persistent challenge for vaccine development. Thus, there is a need for more efficient and sophisticated adjuvants that will complement novel vaccine strategies for the elderly. To this end, we have investigated a previously optimized, combined molecular adjuvant, CASAC (Combined Adjuvant for Synergistic Activation of Cellular immunity), incorporating two complementary Toll-like receptor agonists, CpG and polyI:C, a class-II epitope, and interferon (IFN)-γ in aged mice. FINDINGS: In aged mice with typical features of immunosenescence, antigen specific CD8+ T cell responses were stimulated after serial vaccinations with CASAC or Complete/Incomplete Freund's Adjuvant (CFA/IFA) and a class I epitope, deriving either from ovalbumin (SIINFEKL, SIL) or the melanoma-associated self-antigen, tyrosinase-related protein-2 (SVYDFFVWL, SVL). Pentamer analysis revealed that aged, CASAC/SIL-vaccinated animals had substantially higher frequencies of H-2K(b)/SIL-specific CD8+ T cells compared to the CFA/IFA-vaccinated groups. Similarly, higher frequencies of H-2K(b)/SVL-pentamer+ and IFN-γ+ CD8+ T cells were detected in the aged, CASAC + SVL-vaccinated mice than in their CFA/IFA-vaccinated counterparts. In both antigen settings, CASAC promoted significantly better functional CD8+ T cell activity. CONCLUSION: These studies demonstrate that functional CD8+ T cells, specific for both foreign and tumour-associated self-antigens, can be effectively induced in aged immunosenescent mice using the novel multi-factorial adjuvant CASAC

Resolving the neural circuits of anxiety

Although anxiety disorders represent a major societal problem demanding new therapeutic targets, these efforts have languished in the absence of a mechanistic understanding of this subjective emotional state. While it is impossible to know with certainty the subjective experience of a rodent, rodent models hold promise in dissecting well-conserved limbic circuits. The application of modern approaches in neuroscience has already begun to unmask the neural circuit intricacies underlying anxiety by allowing direct examination of hypotheses drawn from existing psychological concepts. This information points toward an updated conceptual model for what neural circuit perturbations could give rise to pathological anxiety and thereby provides a roadmap for future therapeutic development.National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (U.S.) (NIH Director’s New Innovator Award DP2-DK-102256-01)National Institute of Mental Health (U.S.) (NIH) R01-MH102441-01)JPB Foundatio

The resilience of postglacial hunter-gatherers to abrupt climate change

Understanding the resilience of early societies to climate change is an essential part of exploring the environmental sensitivity of human populations. There is significant interest in the role of abrupt climate events as a driver of early Holocene human activity, but there are very few well-dated records directly compared with local climate archives. Here, we present evidence from the internationally important Mesolithic site of Star Carr showing occupation during the early Holocene, which is directly compared with a high-resolution palaeoclimate record from neighbouring lake beds. We show that-once established-there was intensive human activity at the site for several hundred years when the community was subject to multiple, severe, abrupt climate events that impacted air temperatures, the landscape and the ecosystem of the region. However, these results show that occupation and activity at the site persisted regardless of the environmental stresses experienced by this society. The Star Carr population displayed a high level of resilience to climate change, suggesting that postglacial populations were not necessarily held hostage to the flickering switch of climate change. Instead, we show that local, intrinsic changes in the wetland environment were more significant in determining human activity than the large-scale abrupt early Holocene climate events

The exchange activities of [Fe] hydrogenase (iron–sulfur-cluster-free hydrogenase) from methanogenic archaea in comparison with the exchange activities of [FeFe] and [NiFe] hydrogenases

[Fe] hydrogenase (iron–sulfur-cluster-free hydrogenase) catalyzes the reversible reduction of methenyltetrahydromethanopterin (methenyl-H4MPT+) with H2 to methylene-H4MPT, a reaction involved in methanogenesis from H2 and CO2 in many methanogenic archaea. The enzyme harbors an iron-containing cofactor, in which a low-spin iron is complexed by a pyridone, two CO and a cysteine sulfur. [Fe] hydrogenase is thus similar to [NiFe] and [FeFe] hydrogenases, in which a low-spin iron carbonyl complex, albeit in a dinuclear metal center, is also involved in H2 activation. Like the [NiFe] and [FeFe] hydrogenases, [Fe] hydrogenase catalyzes an active exchange of H2 with protons of water; however, this activity is dependent on the presence of the hydride-accepting methenyl-H4MPT+. In its absence the exchange activity is only 0.01% of that in its presence. The residual activity has been attributed to the presence of traces of methenyl-H4MPT+ in the enzyme preparations, but it could also reflect a weak binding of H2 to the iron in the absence of methenyl-H4MPT+. To test this we reinvestigated the exchange activity with [Fe] hydrogenase reconstituted from apoprotein heterologously produced in Escherichia coli and highly purified iron-containing cofactor and found that in the absence of added methenyl-H4MPT+ the exchange activity was below the detection limit of the tritium method employed (0.1 nmol min−1 mg−1). The finding reiterates that for H2 activation by [Fe] hydrogenase the presence of the hydride-accepting methenyl-H4MPT+ is essentially required. This differentiates [Fe] hydrogenase from [FeFe] and [NiFe] hydrogenases, which actively catalyze H2/H2O exchange in the absence of exogenous electron acceptors

A Brain-Computer Interface Based Attention Training Program for Treating Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder

10.1371/journal.pone.0046692PLoS ONE710

Hypervigilance for fear after basolateral amygdala damage in humans

Recent rodent research has shown that the basolateral amygdala (BLA) inhibits unconditioned, or innate, fear. It is, however, unknown whether the BLA acts in similar ways in humans. In a group of five subjects with a rare genetic syndrome, that is, Urbach–Wiethe disease (UWD), we used a combination of structural and functional neuroimaging, and established focal, bilateral BLA damage, while other amygdala sub-regions are functionally intact. We tested the translational hypothesis that these BLA-damaged UWD-subjects are hypervigilant to facial expressions of fear, which are prototypical innate threat cues in humans. Our data indeed repeatedly confirm fear hypervigilance in these UWD subjects. They show hypervigilant responses to unconsciously presented fearful faces in a modified Stroop task. They attend longer to the eyes of dynamically displayed fearful faces in an eye-tracked emotion recognition task, and in that task recognize facial fear significantly better than control subjects. These findings provide the first direct evidence in humans in support of an inhibitory function of the BLA on the brain's threat vigilance system, which has important implications for the understanding of the amygdala's role in the disorders of fear and anxiety

Sex differences in mood disorders: Perspectives from humans and rodent models

Mood disorders are devastating, often chronic illnesses characterized by low mood, poor affect, and anhedonia. Notably, mood disorders are approximately twice as prevalent in women compared to men. If sex differences in mood are due to underlying biological sex differences, a better understanding of the biology is warranted to develop better treatment or even prevention of these debilitating disorders. In this review, our goals are to: 1) summarize the literature related to mood disorders with respect to sex differences in prevalence, 2) introduce the corticolimbic brain network of mood regulation, 3) discuss strategies and challenges of modeling mood disorders in mice, 4) discuss mechanisms underlying sex differences and how these can be tested in mice, and 5) discuss how our group and others have used a translational approach to investigate mechanisms underlying sex differences in mood disorders in humans and mice