An Internet-Based Tool for Weather Risk Management

This paper introduces a web-based computer program designed to evaluate weather risk man-agement and weather insurance in the United States. The paper outlines the economics of weather risk in terms of agricultural production and household well-being; defines weather risk in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency; and illustrates the computer program use by comparing heat and precipitation risks at Ardmore, Oklahoma, and Ithaca, New York.weather insurance, heat insurance, precipitation insurance, crop insurance, weather derivatives, Risk and Uncertainty,

Weather Index Insurance and the Pricing of Spatial Basis Risk

Agricultural Finance,

Od wychowania fizycznego do inteligencji fizycznej

Autor komentuje zmiany w swoim podejściu do zagadnień działania i percepcji, bieżący oraz przyszły status psychologii ekologicznej, a także specyfikę natury ludzkiej

Philosophy for the rest of cognitive science

Abstract Cognitive science has always included multiple methodologies and theoretical commitments. The philosophy of cognitive science should embrace, or at least acknowledge, this diversity. Bechtel's (2009a) proposed philosophy of cognitive science, however, applies only to representationalist and mechanist cognitive science, ignoring the substantial minority of dynamically oriented cognitive scientists. As an example of nonrepresentational, dynamical cognitive science, we describe strong anticipation as a model for circadian systems (Stepp & Turvey, 2009). We then propose a philosophy of science appropriate to nonrepresentational, dynamical cognitive science

Complementarity, completeness and quality of long-term faunal archives in an Asian biodiversity hotspot

Long-term baselines on biodiversity change through time are crucial to inform conservation decision-making in biodiversity hotspots, but environmental archives remain unavailable for many regions. Extensive palaeontological, zooarchaeological and historical records and indigenous knowledge about past environmental conditions exist for China, a megadiverse country experiencing large-scale biodiversity loss, but their potential to understand past human-caused faunal turnover is not fully assessed. We investigate a series of complementary environmental archives to evaluate the quality of the Holocene–historical faunal record of Hainan Island, China's southernmost province, for establishing new baselines on postglacial mammalian diversity and extinction dynamics. Synthesis of multiple archives provides an integrated model of long-term biodiversity change, revealing that Hainan has experienced protracted and ongoing human-caused depletion of its mammal fauna from prehistory to the present, and that past baselines can inform practical conservation management. However, China's Holocene–historical archives exhibit substantial incompleteness and bias at regional and country-wide scales, with limited taxonomic representation especially for small-bodied species, and poor sampling of high-elevation landscapes facing current-day climate change risks. Establishing a clearer understanding of the quality of environmental archives in threatened ecoregions, and their ability to provide a meaningful understanding of the past, is needed to identify future conservation-relevant historical research priorities

Bright light treatment of depression for older adults [ISRCTN55452501]

BACKGROUND: The incidence of insomnia and depression in the elder population is significant. It is hoped that use of light treatment for this group could provide safe, economic, and effective rapid recovery. METHODS: In this home-based trial we treated depressed elderly subjects with bright white (8,500 Lux) and dim red (<10 Lux) light for one hour a day at three different times (morning, mid-wake and evening). A placebo response washout was used for the first week. Wake treatment was conducted prior to the initiation of treatment, to explore antidepressant response and the interaction with light treatment. Urine and saliva samples were collected during a 24-hour period both before and after treatment and assayed for aMT6s and melatonin respectively to observe any change in circadian timing. Subjects wore a wrist monitor to record light exposure and wrist activity. Daily log sheets and weekly mood (GDS) and physical symptom (SAFTEE) scales were administered. Each subject was given a SCID interview and each completed a mood questionnaire (SIGH-SAD-SR) before and after treatment. Also, Hamilton Depression Rating (SIGH-SAD version) interviews were conducted by a researcher who was blind to the treatment condition. A control group of healthy, age-matched, volunteers was studied for one day to obtain baseline data for comparison of actigraphy and hormone levels. RESULTS: Eighty-one volunteers, between 60 and 79 years old, completed the study. Both treatment and placebo groups experienced mood improvement. Average GDS scores improved 5 points, the Hamilton Depression Rating Scale (HDRS) 17 scores (extracted from the self-rated SIGH-SAD-SR) improved 6 points. There were no significant treatment effects or time-by-treatment interactions. No significant adverse reactions were observed in either treatment group. The assays of urine and saliva showed no significant differences between the treatment and placebo groups. The healthy control group was active earlier and slept earlier but received less light than the depressed group at baseline. CONCLUSION: Antidepressant response to bright light treatment in this age group was not statistically superior to placebo. Both treatment and placebo groups experienced a clinically significant overall improvement of 16%

Human germline heterozygous gain-of-function STAT6 variants cause severe allergic disease

STAT6 (signal transducer and activator of transcription 6) is a transcription factor that plays a central role in the pathophysiology of allergic inflammation. We have identified 16 patients from 10 families spanning three continents with a profound phenotype of early-life onset allergic immune dysregulation, widespread treatment-resistant atopic dermatitis, hypereosinophilia with esosinophilic gastrointestinal disease, asthma, elevated serum IgE, IgE-mediated food allergies, and anaphylaxis. The cases were either sporadic (seven kindreds) or followed an autosomal dominant inheritance pattern (three kindreds). All patients carried monoallelic rare variants in STAT6 and functional studies established their gain-of-function (GOF) phenotype with sustained STAT6 phosphorylation, increased STAT6 target gene expression, and TH2 skewing. Precision treatment with the anti-IL-4Rα antibody, dupilumab, was highly effective improving both clinical manifestations and immunological biomarkers. This study identifies heterozygous GOF variants in STAT6 as a novel autosomal dominant allergic disorder. We anticipate that our discovery of multiple kindreds with germline STAT6 GOF variants will facilitate the recognition of more affected individuals and the full definition of this new primary atopic disorder

Complex admixture preceded and followed the extinction of wisent in the wild

Retracing complex population processes that precede extreme bottlenecks may be impossible using data from living individuals. The wisent (Bison bonasus), Europe’s largest terrestrial mammal, exemplifies such a population history, having gone extinct in the wild but subsequently restored by captive breeding efforts. Using low coverage genomic data from modern and historical individuals, we investigate population processes occurring before and after this extinction. Analysis of aligned genomes supports the division of wisent into two previously recognized subspecies, but almost half of the genomic alignment contradicts this population history as a result of incomplete lineage sorting and admixture. Admixture between subspecies populations occurred prior to extinction and subsequently during the captive breeding program. Admixture with the Bos cattle lineage is also widespread but results from ancient events rather than recent hybridization with domestics. Our study demonstrates the huge potential of historical genomes for both studying evolutionary histories and for guiding conservation strategies

Expert range maps of global mammal distributions harmonised to three taxonomic authorities

AimComprehensive, global information on species' occurrences is an essential biodiversity variable and central to a range of applications in ecology, evolution, biogeography and conservation. Expert range maps often represent a species' only available distributional information and play an increasing role in conservation assessments and macroecology. We provide global range maps for the native ranges of all extant mammal species harmonised to the taxonomy of the Mammal Diversity Database (MDD) mobilised from two sources, the Handbook of the Mammals of the World (HMW) and the Illustrated Checklist of the Mammals of the World (CMW).LocationGlobal.TaxonAll extant mammal species.MethodsRange maps were digitally interpreted, georeferenced, error-checked and subsequently taxonomically aligned between the HMW (6253 species), the CMW (6431 species) and the MDD taxonomies (6362 species).ResultsRange maps can be evaluated and visualised in an online map browser at Map of Life (mol.org) and accessed for individual or batch download for non-commercial use.Main conclusionExpert maps of species' global distributions are limited in their spatial detail and temporal specificity, but form a useful basis for broad-scale characterizations and model-based integration with other data. We provide georeferenced range maps for the native ranges of all extant mammal species as shapefiles, with species-level metadata and source information packaged together in geodatabase format. Across the three taxonomic sources our maps entail, there are 1784 taxonomic name differences compared to the maps currently available on the IUCN Red List website. The expert maps provided here are harmonised to the MDD taxonomic authority and linked to a community of online tools that will enable transparent future updates and version control