Recent advances in TIS research: towards a new phase in transition studies

The technological innovation systems (TIS) approach has become one of the key frameworks for the study of emerging technologies in and beyond the context of sustainability transitions. It focuses on understanding the dynamics of an innovation system associated with a specific technology. The approach is often used to assess the performance of a TIS, to identify shortcomings and to derive policy recommendations for the support of a selected technology (Bergek et al., 2008; Hekkert and Negro, 2009). Since its inception, the framework has seen several conceptual developments, including a clarification of scoping issues, TIS functions as a central tool for performance assessment, a strategic perspective on system building, international and global ties within TIS, and suggestions for the analysis of TIS contexts (Bergek et al., 2015; Binz et al., 2014; Markard et al., 2015). At the same time, however, there are also new conceptual challenges, especially when the TIS is used for sustainability transition studies. One of these challenges is how to study whole system reconfigurations, i.e. to move beyond the focus on specific technologies. Ongoing transitions such as the energy transition currently enter into a new phase of accelerated development, in which multiple emerging and mature technologies interact. Other conceptual challenges include the decline of incumbent technologies, intensified struggles among actors or transition processes transcending sectoral and national boundaries

Tracking icebergs with time-lapse photography and sparse optical flow, LeConte Bay, Alaska, 2016–2017

We present a workflow to track icebergs in proglacial fjords using oblique time-lapse photos and the Lucas-Kanade optical flow algorithm. We employ the workflow at LeConte Bay, Alaska, where we ran five time-lapse cameras between April 2016 and September 2017, capturing more than 400 000 photos at frame rates of 0.5–4.0 min−1. Hourly to daily average velocity fields in map coordinates illustrate dynamic currents in the bay, with dominant downfjord velocities (exceeding 0.5 m s−1 intermittently) and several eddies. Comparisons with simultaneous Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) measurements yield best agreement for the uppermost ADCP levels (∼ 12 m and above), in line with prevalent small icebergs that trace near-surface currents. Tracking results from multiple cameras compare favorably, although cameras with lower frame rates (0.5 min−1) tend to underestimate high flow speeds. Tests to determine requisite temporal and spatial image resolution confirm the importance of high image frame rates, while spatial resolution is of secondary importance. Application of our procedure to other fjords will be successful if iceberg concentrations are high enough and if the camera frame rates are sufficiently rapid (at least 1 min−1 for conditions similar to LeConte Bay).This work was funded by the U.S. National Science Foundation (OPP-1503910, OPP-1504288, OPP-1504521 and OPP-1504191).Ye

Ice-front variation and tidewater behavior on Helheim and Kangerdlugssuaq Glaciers, Greenland

We used satellite images to examine the calving behavior of Helheim and Kangerdlugssuaq Glaciers, Greenland, from 2001 to 2006, a period in which they retreated and sped up. These data show that many large iceberg-calving episodes coincided with teleseismically detected glacial earthquakes, suggesting that calving-related processes are the source of the seismicity. For each of several events for which we have observations, the ice front calved back to a large, pre-existing rift. These rifts form where the ice has thinned to near flotation as the ice front retreats down the back side of a bathymetric high, which agrees well with earlier theoretical predictions. In addition to the recent retreat in a period of higher temperatures, analysis of several images shows that Helheim retreated in the 20th Century during a warmer period and then re-advanced during a subsequent cooler period. This apparent sensitivity to warming suggests that higher temperatures may promote an initial retreat off a bathymetric high that is then sustained by tidewater dynamics as the ice front retreats into deeper water. The cycle of frontal advance and retreat in less than a century indicates that tidewater glaciers in Greenland can advance rapidly. Greenland's larger reservoir of inland ice and conditions that favor the formation of ice shelves likely contribute to the rapid rates of advance

Buildings behaving badly:A behavioral experiment on how different motivational frames influence residential energy label adoption in the Netherlands

Heating buildings contributes to approximately 36% of Europe’s energy demand and several EU member states have adopted mandatory energy labels to improve energy efficiency by promoting home weatherization investments. This paper focuses on the perception of the energy label for residential buildings in the Netherlands and the role of different frames (egoistic, biospheric and social norms and neutral frames) in motivating adoption of energy labels for housing. We used a behavioral email experiment and an online survey to investigate these motivational factors. We find that biospheric frames are weaker than the other three motivational frames in terms of engaging interest in the energy label, but that the biospheric frame results in higher willingness to pay (WTP) for the energy label. We also find that age (rather than income) correlates with higher willingness to pay for home energy labels

Sustentabilidad y estudio del riesgo asociado a los sistemas de producción de leche del departamento Paraná de Entre Ríos

El objetivo general del proyecto fue aportar al conocimiento y evaluar factores que afectan la sustentabilidad y el riesgo asociado según perfiles de sistemas de producción de leche en el departamento Paraná de la provincia de Entre Ríos. A partir de bases de datos de tambos de la zona de estudio, se elaboraron 3 tipos de sistemas de producción según eficiencia y escala, que fueron utilizados para cargar diferentes modelos de simulación, determinísticos, estocásticos y de programación multicriterio. Se modelizaron indicadores de sustentabilidad y de riesgo asociado según escenarios simulados. Se identificaron y evaluaron tecnologías posibles que mejoren los resultados económicos y ambientales. Los resultados muestran que la eficiencia y la escala de los sistemas son los dos factores determinantes de los resultados económicos, ambientales y de riesgo asociado. Los sistemas de producción de baja escala y eficiencia, según distintas relaciones de precios, obtienen hasta 5 veces menos renta y tienen un 90,5 % de probabilidad de que este indicador económico sea negativo. Por otra parte, se encontró conflicto entre margen económico y emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, pudiéndose mitigar los niveles de emisión con bajo impacto económico mediante estrategias productivas como rotación con praderas y reserva de monte nativo

Exposure-age record of Holocene ice sheet and ice shelf change in the northeast Antarctic Peninsula

A

Two decades of dynamic change and progressive destabilization on the Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf

The Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf (TEIS) buttresses the eastern grounded portion of Thwaites Glacier through contact with a pinning point at its seaward limit. Loss of this ice shelf will promote further acceleration of Thwaites Glacier. Understanding the dynamic controls and structural integrity of the TEIS is therefore important to estimating Thwaites' future sea-level contribution. We present a &sim;&thinsp;20-year record of change on the TEIS that reveals the dynamic controls governing the ice shelf's past behaviour and ongoing evolution. We derived ice velocities from MODIS and Sentinel-1 image data using feature tracking and speckle tracking, respectively, and we combined these records with ITS_LIVE and GOLIVE velocity products from Landsat-7 and Landsat-8. In addition, we estimated surface lowering and basal melt rates using the Reference Elevation Model of Antarctica (REMA) DEM in comparison to ICESat and ICESat-2 altimetry. Early in the record, TEIS flow dynamics were strongly controlled by the neighbouring Thwaites Western Ice Tongue (TWIT). Flow patterns on the TEIS changed following the disintegration of the TWIT around 2008, with a new divergence in ice flow developing around the pinning point at its seaward limit. Simultaneously, the TEIS developed new rifting that extends from the shear zone upstream of the ice rise and increased strain concentration within this shear zone. As these horizontal changes occurred, sustained thinning driven by basal melt reduced ice thickness, particularly near the grounding line and in the shear zone area upstream of the pinning point. This evidence of weakening at a rapid pace suggests that the TEIS is likely to fully destabilize in the next few decades, leading to further acceleration of Thwaites Glacier. &nbsp;</p

Forecasting drug utilization and expenditure in a metropolitan health region

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>New pharmacological therapies are challenging the healthcare systems, and there is an increasing need to assess their therapeutic value in relation to existing alternatives as well as their potential budget impact. Consequently, new models to introduce drugs in healthcare are urgently needed. In the metropolitan health region of Stockholm, Sweden, a model has been developed including early warning (horizon scanning), forecasting of drug utilization and expenditure, critical drug evaluation as well as structured programs for the introduction and follow-up of new drugs. The aim of this paper is to present the forecasting model and the predicted growth in all therapeutic areas in 2010 and 2011.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Linear regression analysis was applied to aggregate sales data on hospital sales and dispensed drugs in ambulatory care, including both reimbursed expenditure and patient co-payment. The linear regression was applied on each pharmacological group based on four observations 2006-2009, and the crude predictions estimated for the coming two years 2010-2011. The crude predictions were then adjusted for factors likely to increase or decrease future utilization and expenditure, such as patent expiries, new drugs to be launched or new guidelines from national bodies or the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee. The assessment included a close collaboration with clinical, clinical pharmacological and pharmaceutical experts from the regional Drug and Therapeutics Committee.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The annual increase in total expenditure for prescription and hospital drugs was predicted to be 2.0% in 2010 and 4.0% in 2011. Expenditures will increase in most therapeutic areas, but most predominantly for antineoplastic and immune modulating agents as well as drugs for the nervous system, infectious diseases, and blood and blood-forming organs.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The utilisation and expenditure of drugs is difficult to forecast due to uncertainties about the rate of adoption of new medicines and various ongoing healthcare reforms and activities to improve the quality and efficiency of prescribing. Nevertheless, we believe our model will be valuable as an early warning system to start developing guidance for new drugs including systems to monitor their effectiveness, safety and cost-effectiveness in clinical practice.</p

One transition, many transitions? A corpus-based study of societal sustainability transition discourses in four civil society’s proposals

When the civil society makes ‘transition’ its label, it cannot be assumed that different civil society actors share compatible varieties of localist or radical transformationists discourses. This study has comparatively analyzed the discourses in four civil society sustainability transition proposals using a corpus-based methodology. We found that the proposals are similar as they identify the economy as an object and an entry point for transition, frame the economy as embedded in the socio–ecological system, ascribe agency to grassroots movements for transitions from the bottom–up. We also found crucial differences among the discourses regarding the role of the State, the degree of reform or radical innovation, the degree of imaginative character of the sustainability vision, the degree of opposition to capitalism. We suggest that insights on how the civil society employs notions of transition with respect to the themes of politics, emotions and place can help advance theorizations and practices of societal sustainability transitions led by the civil society