Modeling high-resolution climate change impacts on wheat and maize in Italy

Abstract The Mediterranean basin has been identified as a prominent hotspot of climate change, with expected negative impacts on crop productivity, among others. Given the primary role that agriculture has to sustain cultural values, economic opportunities, and food security, it is crucial to identify specific risks in agriculture due to climate change, which can address more effective adaptation strategies and policies to cope with climate change. This study aims to evaluate the high-resolution impacts of climate change on the length of the growing cycle and yield of durum wheat, common wheat, and maize in Italy by using the CERES-Wheat and CERES-Maize crop models implemented in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) software. A digital platform (GIS-DSSAT) was developed to couple crop simulation models with dynamically downscaled climate projections at high resolution for Italy, which can better represent the Italian landscape complexity and the spatial distribution of different pedological and crop management features, providing more detailed information on the expected impacts on crops respect to previous studies at a coarser resolution. The projections have been extended for two climate change scenarios and accounting for uncertainty, either considering or not the potential direct effects of increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations ([CO2]). Results show that climate change may affect Italian cereal production in the medium to long term periods. Maize is the main affected crop, with yield reductions homogeneously distributed from North to South Italy. Wheat yield is expected to decrease mainly in southern Italy, while northern Italy may benefit from higher precipitation regimes. Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 concentrations may partially offset the negative impact posed by climate change and increase the benefits in the northern regions, especially for common and durum wheat

Building a Bio-Event Annotated Corpus for the Acquisition of Semantic Frames from Biomedical Corpora

This paper reports on the design and construction of a bio-event annotated corpus which was developed with a specific view to the acquisition of semantic frames from biomedical corpora. We describe the adopted annotation scheme and the annotation process, which is supported by a dedicated annotation tool. The annotated corpus contains 677 abstracts of biomedical research article

Operational resilience of reservoirs to climate change, agricultural demand, and tourism: A case study from Sardinia

Copyright © 2015 Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Science of the Total Environment. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Science of the Total Environment (2015), DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.066Many (semi-) arid locations globally, and particularly islands, rely heavily on reservoirs for water supply. Some reservoirs are particularly vulnerable to climate and development changes (e.g. population change, tourist growth, hydropower demands). Irregularities and uncertainties in the fluvial regime associated with climate change and the continuous increase in water demand by different sectors will add new challenges to the management and to the resilience of these reservoirs. The resilience of vulnerable reservoirs must be studied in detail to prepare for and mitigate potential impacts of these changes. In this paper, a reservoir balance model is developed and presented for the Pedra e' Othoni reservoir in Sardinia, Italy, to assess resilience to climate and development changes. The model was first calibrated and validated, then forced with extensive ensemble climate data for representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, agricultural data, and with four socio-economic development scenarios. Future projections show a reduction in annual reservoir inflow and an increase in demand, mainly in the agricultural sector. Under no scenario is reservoir resilience significantly affected, the reservoir always achieves refill. However, this occurs at the partial expenses of hydropower production with implications for the production of renewable energy. There is also the possibility of conflict between the agricultural sector and hydropower sector for diminishing water supply. Pedra e' Othoni reservoir shows good resilience to future change mostly because of the disproportionately large basin feeding it. However this is not the case of other Sardinian reservoirs and hence a detailed resilience assessment of all reservoirs is needed, where development plans should carefully account for the trade-offs and potential conflicts among sectors. For Sardinia, the option of physical connection between reservoirs is available, as are alternative water supply measures. Those reservoirs at risk to future change should be identified, and mitigating measures investigated.European Commission Seventh Framework Project ‘WASSERMed’ (Water Availability and Security in Southern EuRope and the Mediterranean

An analysis of the social and economic costs of breast cancer in Italy

Background: Breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer affecting women and it represents an important economic burden. The aim of this study was to estimate the socio-economic burden of breast cancer (BC) in Italy both from the National Health Service (NHS) and the government perspectives (costs borne by the social security system). Methods: The economic analysis was based on the costs incurred by the NHS from 2008 to 2016 (direct costs related to hospitalizations) and by the National Social Security Institute (INPS) from 2009 to 2015 (costs of social security benefits) for patients with breast cancer. The analysis was based on the Hospital Information System (HIS) and Disability Insurance Awards databases. For both databases, patients affected by a malignant neoplasm of the female breast, carcinoma in situ, or secondary malignant neoplasm of the breast were considered. Results: Results show that more than 75,000 women were hospitalized for breast cancer every year, with an overall cost for hospitalization of about €300 million per year. From the Social Security analysis, a number of 29,000 beneficiaries each year was estimated. Considering per patient social costs, breast cancer at the primary stage cost €8828 per year, while secondary neoplasms cost €9780, with an average total economic burden of €257 million per year. Conclusions: This analysis focused on the economic impact of breast cancer in Italy, showing that an advanced stage of the disease was associated with a higher cost

Technical guidance on monitoring for the Marine Stategy Framework Directive

The Marine Directors of the European Union (EU), Acceding Countries, Candidate Countries and EFTA Countries have jointly developed a common strategy for supporting the implementation of the Directive 2008/56/EC, “the Marine Strategy Framework Directive” (MSFD). The main aim of this strategy is to allow a coherent and harmonious implementation of the Directive. Focus is on methodological questions related to a common understanding of the technical and scientific implications of the Marine Strategy Framework Directive. In particular, one of the objectives of the strategy is the development of non-legally binding and practical documents, such as this technical guidance on monitoring for the MSFD. These documents are targeted to those experts who are directly or indirectly implementing the MSFD in the marine regions. The document has been prepared by the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission (JRC) with the contribution of experts from Member States, Regional Seas Conventions and ICES and following consultation of the Working Group on Good Environmental Status.JRC.H.1-Water Resource

Linguistic profile automated characterisation in pluripotential clinical high-risk mental state (CHARMS) conditions: methodology of a multicentre observational study

Introduction: Language is usually considered the social vehicle of thought in intersubjective communications. However, the relationship between language and high- order cognition seems to evade this canonical and unidirectional description (ie, the notion of language as a simple means of thought communication). In recent years, clinical high at-risk mental state (CHARMS) criteria (evolved from the Ultra-High-Risk paradigm) and the introduction of the Clinical Staging system have been proposed to address the dynamicity of early psychopathology. At the same time, natural language processing (NLP) techniques have greatly evolved and have been successfully applied to investigate different neuropsychiatric conditions. The combination of at-risk mental state paradigm, clinical staging system and automated NLP methods, the latter applied on spoken language transcripts, could represent a useful and convenient approach to the problem of early psychopathological distress within a transdiagnostic risk paradigm. Methods and analysis: Help-seeking young people presenting psychological distress (CHARMS+/− and Clinical Stage 1a or 1b; target sample size for both groups n=90) will be assessed through several psychometric tools and multiple speech analyses during an observational period of 1-year, in the context of an Italian multicentric study. Subjects will be enrolled in different contexts: Department of Neuroscience, Rehabilitation, Ophthalmology, Genetics, Maternal and Child Health (DINOGMI), Section of Psychiatry, University of Genoa—IRCCS Ospedale Policlinico San Martino, Genoa, Italy; Mental Health Department—territorial mental services (ASL 3—Genoa), Genoa, Italy; and Mental Health Department—territorial mental services (AUSL—Piacenza), Piacenza, Italy. The conversion rate to full-blown psychopathology (CS 2) will be evaluated over 2 years of clinical observation, to further confirm the predictive and discriminative value of CHARMS criteria and to verify the possibility of enriching them with several linguistic features, derived from a fine-grained automated linguistic analysis of speech. Ethics and dissemination: The methodology described in this study adheres to ethical principles as formulated in the Declaration of Helsinki and is compatible with International Conference on Harmonization (ICH)-good clinical practice. The research protocol was reviewed and approved by two different ethics committees (CER Liguria approval code: 591/2020—id.10993; Comitato Etico dell’Area Vasta Emilia Nord approval code: 2022/0071963). Participants will provide their written informed consent prior to study enrolment and parental consent will be needed in the case of participants aged less than 18 years old. Experimental results will be carefully shared through publication in peer- reviewed journals, to ensure proper data reproducibility. Trial registration number DOI:10.17605/OSF.IO/BQZTN

The impact of chest CT body composition parameters on clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients

We assessed the impact of chest CT body composition parameters on outcomes and disease severity at hospital presentation of COVID-19 patients, focusing also on the possible mediation of body composition in the relationship between age and death in these patients. Chest CT scans performed at hospital presentation by consecutive COVID-19 patients (02/27/2020-03/13/2020) were retrospectively reviewed to obtain pectoralis muscle density and total, visceral, and intermuscular adipose tissue areas (TAT, VAT, IMAT) at the level of T7-T8 vertebrae. Primary outcomes were: hospitalization, mechanical ventilation (MV) and/or death, death alone. Secondary outcomes were: C-reactive protein (CRP), oxygen saturation (SO2), CT disease extension at hospital presentation. The mediation of body composition in the effect of age on death was explored. Of the 318 patients included in the study (median age 65.7 years, females 37.7%), 205 (64.5%) were hospitalized, 68 (21.4%) needed MV, and 58 (18.2%) died. Increased muscle density was a protective factor while increased TAT, VAT, and IMAT were risk factors for hospitalization and MV/death. All these parameters except TAT had borderline effects on death alone. All parameters were associated with SO2 and extension of lung parenchymal involvement at CT; VAT was associated with CRP. Approximately 3% of the effect of age on death was mediated by decreased muscle density. In conclusion, low muscle quality and ectopic fat accumulation were associated with COVID-19 outcomes, VAT was associated with baseline inflammation. Low muscle quality partly mediated the effect of age on mortality.We assessed the impact of chest CT body composition parameters on outcomes and disease severity at hospital presentation of COVID-19 patients, focusing also on the possible mediation of body composition in the relationship between age and death in these patients. Chest CT scans performed at hospital presentation by consecutive COVID-19 patients (02/ 27/2020-03/13/2020) were retrospectively reviewed to obtain pectoralis muscle density and total, visceral, and intermuscular adipose tissue areas (TAT, VAT, IMAT) at the level of T7-T8 vertebrae. Primary outcomes were: hospitalization, mechanical ventilation (MV) and/or death, death alone. Secondary outcomes were: C-reactive protein (CRP), oxygen saturation (SO2), CT disease extension at hospital presentation. The mediation of body composition in the effect of age on death was explored. Of the 318 patients included in the study (median age 65.7 years, females 37.7%), 205 (64.5%) were hospitalized, 68 (21.4%) needed MV, and 58 (18.2%) died. Increased muscle density was a protective factor while increased TAT, VAT, and IMAT were risk factors for hospitalization and MV/death. All these parameters except TAT had borderline effects on death alone. All parameters were associated with SO2 and extension of lung parenchymal involvement at CT; VAT was associated with CRP. Approximately 3% of the effect of age on death was mediated by decreased muscle density. In conclusion, low muscle quality and ectopic fat accumulation were associated with COVID-19 outcomes, VAT was associated with baseline inflammation. Low muscle quality partly mediated the effect of age on mortality

Automated Analysis of Proliferating Cells Spatial Organisation Predicts Prognosis in Lung Neuroendocrine Neoplasms

SIMPLE SUMMARY: Lung neuroendocrine neoplasms (lung NENs) are categorised by morphology, defining a classification sometimes unable to reflect ultimate clinical outcome, particularly for the intermediate domains of adenocarcinomas and large-cell neuroendocrine carcinomas. Moreover, subjectivity and poor reproducibility characterise diagnosis and prognosis assessment of all NENs. The aim of this study was to design and evaluate an objective and reproducible approach to the grading of lung NENs, potentially extendable to other NENs, by exploring a completely new perspective of interpreting the well-recognised proliferation marker Ki-67. We designed an automated pipeline to harvest quantitative information from the spatial distribution of Ki-67-positive cells, analysing its heterogeneity in the entire extent of tumour tissue—which currently represents the main weakness of Ki-67—and employed machine learning techniques to predict prognosis based on this information. Demonstrating the efficacy of the proposed framework would hint at a possible path for the future of grading and classification of NENs. ABSTRACT: Lung neuroendocrine neoplasms (lung NENs) are categorised by morphology, defining a classification sometimes unable to reflect ultimate clinical outcome. Subjectivity and poor reproducibility characterise diagnosis and prognosis assessment of all NENs. Here, we propose a machine learning framework for tumour prognosis assessment based on a quantitative, automated and repeatable evaluation of the spatial distribution of cells immunohistochemically positive for the proliferation marker Ki-67, performed on the entire extent of high-resolution whole slide images. Combining features from the fields of graph theory, fractality analysis, stochastic geometry and information theory, we describe the topology of replicating cells and predict prognosis in a histology-independent way. We demonstrate how our approach outperforms the well-recognised prognostic role of Ki-67 Labelling Index on a multi-centre dataset comprising the most controversial lung NENs. Moreover, we show that our system identifies arrangement patterns in the cells positive for Ki-67 that appear independently of tumour subtyping. Strikingly, the subset of these features whose presence is also independent of the value of the Labelling Index and the density of Ki-67-positive cells prove to be especially relevant in discerning prognostic classes. These findings disclose a possible path for the future of grading and classification of NENs

Commentary on the study of Roy et al. Amygdala based altered mir-128-3p in conferring susceptibility to depression-like behavior via Wnt signaling

The study of Roy and colleagues, recently accepted for publication on Int J Neuropsychopharmacol is a very interesting report investigating the role of specific microRNAs (miRNAs) in vulnerability or resistance to major depressive disorder (MDD) in a specific brain region (e.g., amygdala). MiRNAs may act as a mega controller of gene expression being involved in the pathogenesis of major neuropsychiatric conditions. Interestingly, some of the altered miRNAs (e.g., hsa-miR-425-3p, miR-425, miR-674-3p, and miR-873-3p) identified in this study were found to be dysregulated even in existing studies but several methodological issues may hamper the translation of basic research findings in clinical studies. MiRNAs are proposed as possible biomarkers of disease and treatment response to disentangle the biological complexity underlying major affective disorders. The main implications regarding the present findings are discussed