Two-way coupling between Ecosim (EwE-F) and a biogeochemical model of the Baltic Sea

Two-way coupling results for the Central Baltic Sea between EwE-F, a Fortran version of Ecosim, and the BALTSEM biogeochemical modelEuropean Commission: ClimeFish - Co-creating a decision support framework to ensure sustainable fish production in Europe under climate change (677039

Reference state, structure, regime shifts, and regulatory drivers in a coastal sea over the last century : The Central Baltic Sea case

The occurrence of regime shifts in marine ecosystems has important implications for environmental legislation that requires setting reference levels and targets of quantitative restoration outcomes. The Baltic Sea ecosystem has undergone large changes in the 20(th) century related to anthropogenic pressures and climate variability, which have caused ecosystem reorganization. Here, we compiled historical information and identified relationships in our dataset using multivariate statistics and modeling across 31 biotic and abiotic variables from 1925 to 2005 in the Central Baltic Sea. We identified a series of ecosystem regime shifts in the 1930s, 1970s, and at the end of the 1980s/beginning of the 1990s. In the long term, the Central Baltic Sea showed a regime shift from a benthic to pelagic-dominated state. Historically, benthic components played a significant role in trophic transfer, while in the more recent productive system pelagic-benthic coupling was weak and pelagic components dominated. Our analysis shows that for the entire time period, productivity, climate, and hydrography mainly affected the functioning of the food web, whereas fishing became important more recently. Eutrophication had far-reaching direct and indirect impacts from a long-term perspective and changed not only the trophic state of the system but also affected higher trophic levels. Our study also suggests a switch in regulatory drivers from salinity to oxygen. The "reference ecosystem" identified in our analysis may guide the establishment of an ecosystem state baseline and threshold values for ecosystem state indicators of the Central Baltic Sea.Peer reviewe

Shared socio-economic pathways extended for the Baltic Sea: exploring long-term environmental problems

Long-term scenario analyses can be powerful tools to explore plausible futures of human development under changing environmental, social, and economic conditions and to evaluate implications of different approaches to reduce pollution and resource overuse. Vulnerable ecosystems like the Baltic Sea in North-Eastern Europe tend to be under pressure from multiple, interacting anthropogenic drivers both related to the local scale (e.g. land use change) and the global scale (e.g. climate change). There is currently a lack of scenarios supporting policy-making that systematically explore how global and regional developments could concurrently impact the Baltic Sea region. Here, we present five narratives for future development in the Baltic Sea region, consistent with the global Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) developed for climate research. We focus on agriculture, wastewater treatment, fisheries, shipping, and atmospheric deposition, which all represent major pressures on the Baltic Sea. While we find strong links between the global pathways and regional pressures, we also conclude that each pathway may very well be the host of different sectoral developments, which in turn may have different impacts on the ecosystem state. The extended SSP narratives for the Baltic Sea region are intended as a description of sectoral developments at regional scale that enable detailed scenario analysis and discussions across different sectors and disciplines, but within a common context. In addition, the extended SSPs can readily be combined with climate pathways for integrated scenario analysis of regional environmental problems.Peer reviewe

Food for Thought : Eastern Baltic cod in distress: biological changes and challenges for stock assessment

The eastern Baltic (EB) cod (Gadus morhua) stock was depleted and overexploited for decades until the mid-2000s, when fishing mortality rapidly declined and biomass started to increase, as shown by stock assessments. These positive developments were partly assigned to effective management measures, and the EB cod was considered one of the most successful stock recoveries in recent times. In contrast to this optimistic view, the analytical stock assessment failed in 2014, leaving the present stock status unclear. Deteriorated quality of some basic input data for stock assessment in combination with changes in environmental and ecological conditions has led to an unusual situation for cod in the Baltic Sea, which poses new challenges for stock assessment and management advice. A number of adverse developments such as low nutritional condition and disappearance of larger individuals indicate that the stock is in distress. In this study, we (i) summarize the knowledge of recent changes in cod biology and ecosystem conditions, (ii) describe the subsequent challenges for stock assessment, and (iii) highlight the key questions where answers are urgently needed to understand the present stock status and provide scientifically solid support for cod management in the Baltic Sea

Hidden variables in a Dynamic Bayesian Network identify ecosystem level change

EU; The Academy of Finland; Projektträger Jülich (PtJ); Germany; The State Education Development Agency of Latvia; The National Centre for Research and Development, Poland; The Swedish Research Council Formas; BalticEye Stockholm University; foundation BalticSea202

Programmed Death-1 and Its Ligand Are Novel Immunotolerant Molecules Expressed on Leukemic B Cells in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Programmed death-1 (PD-1) is an immunoreceptor predominantly expressed on exhausted T cells, which through an interaction with its ligand (PD-L1), controls peripheral tolerance by limiting effector functions of T lymphocytes. qRT-PCR for PD-1, PD-L1 and their splicing forms as well as flow cytometric assessment of surface expression was performed in a cohort of 58 chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. In functional studies, we assessed the influence of the proliferative response of leukemic B-cells induced by IL-4 and CD40L on PD-1 transcripts and expression on the protein level. The median level of PD-1, but not PD-L1, transcripts in CLL patients was higher in comparison to healthy volunteers (HVs, n = 43, p = 0.0057). We confirmed the presence of PD-1 and PD-L1 on the CLL cell surface, and found the expression of PD-1, but not PD-L1, to be higher among CLL patients in comparison to HVs (47.2% vs. 14.8%, p<0.0001). The Kaplan-Meier curves for the time to progression and overall survival in groups with high and low surface expression of PD-1 and PD-L1 revealed no prognostic value in CLL patients. After stimulation with IL-4 and CD40L, protein expression of PD-1 was significantly increased in samples that responded and up-regulated CD38. PD-1, which is aberrantly expressed both at mRNA and cell surface levels in CLL cells might represent a novel immunotolerant molecule involved in the pathomechanism of the disease, and could provide a novel target for future therapies

Polymorphisms within autophagy-related genes as susceptibility biomarkers for multiple myeloma: a meta-analysis of three large cohorts and functional characterization

Functional data used in this project have been meticulously catalogued and archived in the BBMRI-NL data infrastructure (https://hfgp.bbmri.nl/, accessed on 12 February 2020) using the MOLGENIS open-source platform for scientific data.Multiple myeloma (MM) arises following malignant proliferation of plasma cells in the bone marrow, that secrete high amounts of specific monoclonal immunoglobulins or light chains, resulting in the massive production of unfolded or misfolded proteins. Autophagy can have a dual role in tumorigenesis, by eliminating these abnormal proteins to avoid cancer development, but also ensuring MM cell survival and promoting resistance to treatments. To date no studies have determined the impact of genetic variation in autophagy-related genes on MM risk. We performed meta-analysis of germline genetic data on 234 autophagy-related genes from three independent study populations including 13,387 subjects of European ancestry (6863 MM patients and 6524 controls) and examined correlations of statistically significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; p < 1 × 10−9) with immune responses in whole blood, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), and monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM) from a large population of healthy donors from the Human Functional Genomic Project (HFGP). We identified SNPs in six loci, CD46, IKBKE, PARK2, ULK4, ATG5, and CDKN2A associated with MM risk (p = 4.47 × 10−4−5.79 × 10−14). Mechanistically, we found that the ULK4rs6599175 SNP correlated with circulating concentrations of vitamin D3 (p = 4.0 × 10−4), whereas the IKBKErs17433804 SNP correlated with the number of transitional CD24+CD38+ B cells (p = 4.8 × 10−4) and circulating serum concentrations of Monocyte hemoattractant Protein (MCP)-2 (p = 3.6 × 10−4). We also found that the CD46rs1142469 SNP corre lated with numbers of CD19+ B cells, CD19+CD3− B cells, CD5+ IgD− cells, IgM− cells, IgD−IgM− cells, and CD4−CD8− PBMCs (p = 4.9 × 10−4−8.6 × 10−4 ) and circulating concentrations of interleukin (IL)-20 (p = 0.00082). Finally, we observed that the CDKN2Ars2811710 SNP correlated with levels of CD4+EMCD45RO+CD27− cells (p = 9.3 × 10−4 ). These results suggest that genetic variants within these six loci influence MM risk through the modulation of specific subsets of immune cells, as well as vitamin D3−, MCP-2−, and IL20-dependent pathways.This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, N° 856620 and by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III and FEDER (Madrid, Spain; PI17/02256 and PI20/01845), Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades and FEDER (PY20/01282), from the CRIS foundation against cancer, from the Cancer Network of Excellence (RD12/10 Red de Cáncer), from the Dietmar Hopp Foundation and the German Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF: CLIOMMICS [01ZX1309]), and from National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health under award numbers: R01CA186646, U01CA249955 (EEB).This work was also funded d by Portuguese National funds, through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT)—project UIDB/50026/2020 and UIDP/50026/2020 and by the project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000055, supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)

Polymorphisms within Autophagy-Related Genes as Susceptibility Biomarkers for Multiple Myeloma: A Meta-Analysis of Three Large Cohorts and Functional Characterization

Multiple myeloma (MM) arises following malignant proliferation of plasma cells in the bone marrow, that secrete high amounts of specific monoclonal immunoglobulins or light chains, resulting in the massive production of unfolded or misfolded proteins. Autophagy can have a dual role in tumorigenesis, by eliminating these abnormal proteins to avoid cancer development, but also ensuring MM cell survival and promoting resistance to treatments. To date no studies have determined the impact of genetic variation in autophagy-related genes on MM risk. We performed meta-analysis of germline genetic data on 234 autophagy-related genes from three independent study populations including 13,387 subjects of European ancestry (6863 MM patients and 6524 controls) and examined correlations of statistically significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; p < 1 × 10−9) with immune responses in whole blood, peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs), and monocyte-derived macrophages (MDM) from a large population of healthy donors from the Human Functional Genomic Project (HFGP). We identified SNPs in six loci, CD46, IKBKE, PARK2, ULK4, ATG5, and CDKN2A associated with MM risk (p = 4.47 × 10−4−5.79 × 10−14). Mechanistically, we found that the ULK4rs6599175 SNP correlated with circulating concentrations of vitamin D3 (p = 4.0 × 10−4), whereas the IKBKErs17433804 SNP correlated with the number of transitional CD24+CD38+ B cells (p = 4.8 × 10−4) and circulating serum concentrations of Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein (MCP)-2 (p = 3.6 × 10−4). We also found that the CD46rs1142469 SNP correlated with numbers of CD19+ B cells, CD19+CD3− B cells, CD5+IgD− cells, IgM− cells, IgD−IgM− cells, and CD4−CD8− PBMCs (p = 4.9 × 10−4−8.6 × 10−4) and circulating concentrations of interleukin (IL)-20 (p = 0.00082). Finally, we observed that the CDKN2Ars2811710 SNP correlated with levels of CD4+EMCD45RO+CD27− cells (p = 9.3 × 10−4). These results suggest that genetic variants within these six loci influence MM risk through the modulation of specific subsets of immune cells, as well as vitamin D3−, MCP-2−, and IL20-dependent pathways.This work was supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program, N° 856620 and by grants from the Instituto de Salud Carlos III and FEDER (Madrid, Spain; PI17/02256 and PI20/01845), Consejería de Transformación Económica, Industria, Conocimiento y Universidades and FEDER (PY20/01282), from the CRIS foundation against cancer, from the Cancer Network of Excellence (RD12/10 Red de Cáncer), from the Dietmar Hopp Foundation and the German Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF: CLIOMMICS [01ZX1309]), and from National Cancer Institute of the National Institutes of Health under award numbers: R01CA186646, U01CA249955 (EEB). This work was also funded d by Portuguese National funds, through the Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT)—project UIDB/50026/2020 and UIDP/50026/2020 and by the project NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000055, supported by Norte Portugal Regional Operational Programme (NORTE 2020), under the PORTUGAL 2020 Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF).Peer reviewe

Extension of biomass estimates to pre-assessment periods using density dependent surplus production approach.

Biomass reconstructions to pre-assessment periods for commercially important and exploitable fish species are important tools for understanding long-term processes and fluctuation on stock and ecosystem level. For some stocks only fisheries statistics and fishery dependent data are available, for periods before surveys were conducted. The methods for the backward extension of the analytical assessment of biomass for years for which only total catch volumes are available were developed and tested in this paper. Two of the approaches developed apply the concept of the surplus production rate (SPR), which is shown to be stock density dependent if stock dynamics is governed by classical stock-production models. The other approach used a modified form of the Schaefer production model that allows for backward biomass estimation. The performance of the methods was tested on the Arctic cod and North Sea herring stocks, for which analytical biomass estimates extend back to the late 1940s. Next, the methods were applied to extend biomass estimates of the North-east Atlantic mackerel from the 1970s (analytical biomass estimates available) to the 1950s, for which only total catch volumes were available. For comparison with other methods which employs a constant SPR estimated as an average of the observed values, was also applied. The analyses showed that the performance of the methods is stock and data specific; the methods that work well for one stock may fail for the others. The constant SPR method is not recommended in those cases when the SPR is relatively high and the catch volumes in the reconstructed period are low