Early warning and response to fires in Kalimantan, Indonesia

Scientists at the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) collaborated with Bogor Agriculture University Indonesia to investigate links between climate anomalies and fire hotspots in Kalimantan, Indonesia. During their investigation, a close relationship between satellite rainfall data and fire hotspot activity was found. Rainfall anomalies during the dry season from June-October were particularly critical in determining fire activity. Vegetation greenness and moisture indices derived from MODIS images, however, did not appear to demonstrate a relationship. These findings were used to develop a prototype online tool that enables stakeholders to view satellite rainfall anomalies and forecast fire activity in Kalimantan. Potential fire activity can be inferred from these data and steps can be taken early on to prevent or minimize the effects of regional fire occurrences

Dealing with missing standard deviation and mean values in meta-analysis of continuous outcomes: a systematic review

Background: Rigorous, informative meta-analyses rely on availability of appropriate summary statistics or individual participant data. For continuous outcomes, especially those with naturally skewed distributions, summary information on the mean or variability often goes unreported. While full reporting of original trial data is the ideal, we sought to identify methods for handling unreported mean or variability summary statistics in meta-analysis. Methods: We undertook two systematic literature reviews to identify methodological approaches used to deal with missing mean or variability summary statistics. Five electronic databases were searched, in addition to the Cochrane Colloquium abstract books and the Cochrane Statistics Methods Group mailing list archive. We also conducted cited reference searching and emailed topic experts to identify recent methodological developments. Details recorded included the description of the method, the information required to implement the method, any underlying assumptions and whether the method could be readily applied in standard statistical software. We provided a summary description of the methods identified, illustrating selected methods in example meta-analysis scenarios. Results: For missing standard deviations (SDs), following screening of 503 articles, fifteen methods were identified in addition to those reported in a previous review. These included Bayesian hierarchical modelling at the meta-analysis level; summary statistic level imputation based on observed SD values from other trials in the meta-analysis; a practical approximation based on the range; and algebraic estimation of the SD based on other summary statistics. Following screening of 1124 articles for methods estimating the mean, one approximate Bayesian computation approach and three papers based on alternative summary statistics were identified. Illustrative meta-analyses showed that when replacing a missing SD the approximation using the range minimised loss of precision and generally performed better than omitting trials. When estimating missing means, a formula using the median, lower quartile and upper quartile performed best in preserving the precision of the meta-analysis findings, although in some scenarios, omitting trials gave superior results. Conclusions: Methods based on summary statistics (minimum, maximum, lower quartile, upper quartile, median) reported in the literature facilitate more comprehensive inclusion of randomised controlled trials with missing mean or variability summary statistics within meta-analyses

Ensemble clustering in deterministic ensemble Kalman filters

Ensemble clustering (EC) can arise in data assimilation with ensemble square root filters (EnSRFs) using non-linear models: an M-member ensemble splits into a single outlier and a cluster of M−1 members. The stochastic Ensemble Kalman Filter does not present this problem. Modifications to the EnSRFs by a periodic resampling of the ensemble through random rotations have been proposed to address it. We introduce a metric to quantify the presence of EC and present evidence to dispel the notion that EC leads to filter failure. Starting from a univariate model, we show that EC is not a permanent but transient phenomenon; it occurs intermittently in non-linear models. We perform a series of data assimilation experiments using a standard EnSRF and a modified EnSRF by a resampling though random rotations. The modified EnSRF thus alleviates issues associated with EC at the cost of traceability of individual ensemble trajectories and cannot use some of algorithms that enhance performance of standard EnSRF. In the non-linear regimes of low-dimensional models, the analysis root mean square error of the standard EnSRF slowly grows with ensemble size if the size is larger than the dimension of the model state. However, we do not observe this problem in a more complex model that uses an ensemble size much smaller than the dimension of the model state, along with inflation and localisation. Overall, we find that transient EC does not handicap the performance of the standard EnSRF

The Prevalence and Psychopathological Correlates of Sibling Bullying in Children with and without Autism Spectrum Disorder

Using data from a prospective population based study, the prevalence and psychopathological correlates of sibling bullying in children with and without autism spectrum disorder (ASD) were estimated. There were 475 children with ASD and 13,702 children without ASD aged 11 years. Children with ASD were more likely to be bullied by their siblings compared to those without ASD. They were also more likely than those without ASD to both bully and be bullied by their siblings, which was associated with lower prosocial skills as well as more internalizing and externalizing problems compared to those not involved in any sibling bullying. Interventions to improve social and emotional outcomes in children with ASD should focus on both the affected and the unaffected sibling

Choral singing therapy following stroke or Parkinsons disease: An exploration of participants experiences

© 2015 Informa UK Ltd. Purpose: People with stroke or Parkinsons disease (PD) live with reduced mood, social participation and quality of life (QOL). Communication difficulties affect 90% of people with PD (dysarthria) and over 33% of people with stroke (aphasia). These consequences are disabling in many ways. However, as singing is typically still possible, its therapeutic use is of increasing interest. This article explores the experiences of and factors influencing participation in choral singing therapy (CST) by people with stroke or PD and their significant others. Method: Participants (eight people with stroke, six with PD) were recruited from a community music therapy choir running CST. Significant others (seven for stroke, two for PD) were also recruited. Supported communication methods were used as needed to undertake semi-structured interviews (total N = 23). Results: Thematic analysis indicated participants had many unmet needs associated with their condition, which motivated them to explore self-management options. CST participation was described as an enjoyable social activity, and participation was perceived as improving mood, language, breathing and voice. Conclusions: Choral singing was perceived by people with stroke and PD to help them self-manage some of the consequences of their condition, including social isolation, low mood and communication difficulties.Implications for RehabilitationChoral singing therapy (CST) is sought out by people with stroke and PD to help self-manage symptoms of their condition.Participation is perceived as an enjoyable activity which improves mood, voice and language symptoms.CST may enable access to specialist music therapy and speech language therapy protocols within community frameworks

Developing, monitoring, and reporting of fidelity in aphasia trials : core recommendations from the collaboration of aphasia trialists (CATs) trials for aphasia panel

BACKGROUND Developing, monitoring, and reporting of fidelity are essential and integral components to the design of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) in stroke and aphasia. Treatment fidelity refers to the degree to which an intervention is delivered as intended and is directly related to the quality of the evidence generated by RCTs. Clear documentation of treatment fidelity in trials assists in the evaluation of the clinical implications of potential benefits attributed to the intervention. Consideration of the implementation requirements of a research-based intervention as intended in a clinical context is necessary to achieve similar outcomes for a clinical population. Despite this, treatment fidelity is rarely reported in RCTs of aphasia intervention. AIM To describe fidelity strategies and develop core recommendations for developing, monitoring, and reporting of fidelity in aphasia intervention RCTs. SCOPE Relevant conceptual frameworks were considered. The Behaviour Change Consortium comprehensive framework of fidelity was adopted. It includes five areas: study design, training providers, delivery of treatment, treatment receipt, and treatment enactment. We explored fidelity in RCTs with a range of complex aphasia interventions (e.g., ASK, Big CACTUS, COMPARE, FCET2EC, POLAR, SUPERB, and VERSE) and described how different trial design factors (e.g., phase of trial, explanatory vs. pragmatic, number and location of sites, and number and type of treatment providers) influenced the fidelity strategies chosen. Strategies were mapped onto the five areas of the fidelity framework with a detailed exploration of how fidelity criteria were developed, measured, and monitored throughout each trial. This information was synthesised into a set of core recommendations to guide aphasia researchers towards the adequate measurement, capture, and reporting of fidelity within future aphasia intervention studies. CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS Treatment fidelity should be a core consideration in planning an intervention trial, a concept that goes beyond treatment adherence alone. A range of strategies should be selected depending on the phase and design of the trial being undertaken and appropriate investment of time and costs should be considered

Cyberbullying: a storm in a teacup?

Cyberbullying has been portrayed as a rising ‘epidemic’ amongst children and adolescents. But does it create many new victims beyond those already bullied with traditional means (physical, relational)? Our aim was to determine whether cyberbullying creates uniquely new victims, and whether it has similar impact upon psychological and behavioral outcomes for adolescents, beyond those experienced by traditional victims. This study assessed 2745 pupils, aged 11–16, from UK secondary schools. Pupils completed an electronic survey that measured bullying involvement, self-esteem and behavioral problems. Twenty-nine percent reported being bullied but only 1% of adolescents were pure cyber-victims (i.e., not also bullied traditionally). Compared to direct or relational victims, cyber-victimization had similar negative effects on behavior (z = −0.41) and self-esteem (z = −0.22) compared to those not involved in bullying. However, those bullied by multiple means (poly-victims) had the most difficulties with behavior (z = −0.94) and lowest self-esteem (z = −0.78). Cyberbullying creates few new victims, but is mainly a new tool to harm victims already bullied by traditional means. Cyberbullying extends the reach of bullying beyond the school gate. Intervention strategies against cyberbullying may need to include approaches against traditional bullying and its root causes to be successful.Published versio

Functional Characterization of MODY2 Mutations Highlights the Importance of the Fine-Tuning of Glucokinase and Its Role in Glucose Sensing

Glucokinase (GK) acts as a glucose sensor in the pancreatic beta-cell and regulates insulin secretion. Heterozygous mutations in the human GK-encoding GCK gene that reduce the activity index increase the glucose-stimulated insulin secretion threshold and cause familial, mild fasting hyperglycaemia, also known as Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young type 2 (MODY2). Here we describe the biochemical characterization of five missense GK mutations: p.Ile130Thr, p.Asp205His, p.Gly223Ser, p.His416Arg and p.Ala449Thr. The enzymatic analysis of the corresponding bacterially expressed GST-GK mutant proteins show that all of them impair the kinetic characteristics of the enzyme. In keeping with their position within the protein, mutations p.Ile130Thr, p.Asp205His, p.Gly223Ser, and p.His416Arg strongly decrease the activity index of GK, affecting to one or more kinetic parameters. In contrast, the p.Ala449Thr mutation, which is located in the allosteric activator site, does not affect significantly the activity index of GK, but dramatically modifies the main kinetic parameters responsible for the function of this enzyme as a glucose sensor. The reduced Kcat of the mutant (3.21±0.28 s−1 vs 47.86±2.78 s−1) is balanced by an increased glucose affinity (S0.5 = 1.33±0.08 mM vs 7.86±0.09 mM) and loss of cooperativity for this substrate. We further studied the mechanism by which this mutation impaired GK kinetics by measuring the differential effects of several competitive inhibitors and one allosteric activator on the mutant protein. Our results suggest that this mutation alters the equilibrium between the conformational states of glucokinase and highlights the importance of the fine-tuning of GK and its role in glucose sensing