A return to large-scale features of Pliocene climate: the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ~ 400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution and based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.4 and 4.7 °C relative to pre-industrial with a multi-model mean value of 2.8 °C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 6 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases are 1.3 °C greater over the land than over the oceans, and there is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60° N and 60° S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.4. In the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. Although there are some modelling constraints, there is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble earth system response to doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is approximately 50 % greater than ECS, consistent with results from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea-surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and indicate a range in ECS from 2.5 to 4.3 °C. This result is in general accord with the range in ECS presented by previous IPCC Assessment Reports

Antarctic last interglacial isotope peak in response to sea ice retreat not ice-sheet collapse

Several studies have suggested that sea-level rise during the last interglacial implies retreat of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). The prevalent hypothesis is that the retreat coincided with the peak Antarctic temperature and stable water isotope values from 128,000 years ago (128 ka); very early in the last interglacial. Here, by analysing climate model simulations of last interglacial WAIS loss featuring water isotopes, we show instead that the isotopic response to WAIS loss is in opposition to the isotopic evidence at 128 ka. Instead, a reduction in winter sea ice area of 65±7% fully explains the 128 ka ice core evidence. Our finding of a marked retreat of the sea ice at 128 ka demonstrates the sensitivity of Antarctic sea ice extent to climate warming

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2: large-scale climate features and climate sensitivity

The Pliocene epoch has great potential to improve our understanding of the long-term climatic and environmental consequences of an atmospheric CO2 concentration near ∼400 parts per million by volume. Here we present the large-scale features of Pliocene climate as simulated by a new ensemble of climate models of varying complexity and spatial resolution based on new reconstructions of boundary conditions (the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2; PlioMIP2). As a global annual average, modelled surface air temperatures increase by between 1.7 and 5.2 ∘C relative to the pre-industrial era with a multi-model mean value of 3.2 ∘C. Annual mean total precipitation rates increase by 7 % (range: 2 %–13 %). On average, surface air temperature (SAT) increases by 4.3 ∘C over land and 2.8 ∘C over the oceans. There is a clear pattern of polar amplification with warming polewards of 60∘ N and 60∘ S exceeding the global mean warming by a factor of 2.3. In the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, meridional temperature gradients are reduced, while tropical zonal gradients remain largely unchanged. There is a statistically significant relationship between a model's climate response associated with a doubling in CO2 (equilibrium climate sensitivity; ECS) and its simulated Pliocene surface temperature response. The mean ensemble Earth system response to a doubling of CO2 (including ice sheet feedbacks) is 67 % greater than ECS; this is larger than the increase of 47 % obtained from the PlioMIP1 ensemble. Proxy-derived estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperatures are used to assess model estimates of ECS and give an ECS range of 2.6–4.8 ∘C. This result is in general accord with the ECS range presented by previous Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports

Dealing with Alcohol-related problems in the Night-Time Economy: A Study Protocol for Mapping trends in harm and stakeholder views surrounding local community level interventions

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>This project will provide a comprehensive investigation into the prevalence of alcohol-related harms and community attitudes in the context of community-based interventions being implemented to reduce harm in two regional centres of Australia. While considerable experimentation and innovation to address these harms has occurred in both Geelong and Newcastle, only limited ad-hoc documentation and analysis has been conducted on changes in the prevalence of harm as a consequence, leaving a considerable gap in terms of a systematic, evidence-based analysis of changes in harm over time and the need for further intervention. Similarly, little evidence has been reported regarding the views of key stakeholder groups, industry, government agencies, patrons or community regarding the need for, and the acceptability of, interventions to reduce harms. This project will aim to provide evidence regarding the impact and acceptability of local initiatives aimed at reducing alcohol-related harms.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This study will gather existing police data (assault, property damage and drink driving offences), Emergency Department presentations and Ambulance attendance data. Further, the research team will conduct interviews with licensed venue patrons and collect observational data of licensed venues. Key informant interviews will assess expert knowledge from key industry and government stakeholders, and a community survey will assess community experiences and attitudes towards alcohol-related harm and harm-reduction strategies. Overall, the project will assess: the extent of alcohol-related harm in the context of harm-reduction interventions, and the need for and acceptability of further intervention.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>These findings will be used to improve evidence-based practice both nationally and internationally.</p> <p>Ethical Approval</p> <p>This project has been approved by Deakin University HREC.</p

On the climatic influence of CO2 forcing in the Pliocene

Understanding the dominant climate forcings in the Pliocene is crucial to assessing the usefulness of the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future. Here, we implement a novel yet simple linear factorisation method to assess the relative influence of CO2 forcing in seven models of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) ensemble. Outputs are termed “FCO2” and show the fraction of Pliocene climate change driven by CO2. The accuracy of the FCO2 method is first assessed through comparison to an energy balance analysis previously used to assess drivers of surface air temperature in the PlioMIP1 ensemble. After this assessment, the FCO2 method is applied to achieve an understanding of the drivers of Pliocene sea surface temperature and precipitation for the first time. CO2 is found to be the most important forcing in the ensemble for Pliocene surface air temperature (global mean FCO2=0.56), sea surface temperature (global mean FCO2=0.56), and precipitation (global mean FCO2=0.51). The range between individual models is found to be consistent between these three climate variables, and the models generally show good agreement on the sign of the most important forcing. Our results provide the most spatially complete view of the drivers of Pliocene climate to date and have implications for both data–model comparison and the use of the Pliocene as an analogue for the future. That CO2 is found to be the most important forcing reinforces the Pliocene as a good palaeoclimate analogue, but the significant effect of non-CO2 forcing at a regional scale (e.g. orography and ice sheet forcing at high latitudes) reminds us that it is not perfect, and these additional influencing factors must not be overlooked. This comparison is further complicated when considering the Pliocene as a state in quasi-equilibrium with CO2 forcing compared to the transient warming being experienced at present

A mathematical model of the human metabolic system and metabolic flexibility

In healthy subjects some tissues in the human body display metabolic flexibility, by this we mean the ability for the tissue to switch its fuel source between predominantly carbohydrates in the post prandial state and predominantly fats in the fasted state. Many of the pathways involved with human metabolism are controlled by insulin, and insulin- resistant states such as obesity and type-2 diabetes are characterised by a loss or impairment of metabolic flexibility. In this paper we derive a system of 12 first-order coupled differential equations that describe the transport between and storage in different tissues of the human body. We find steady state solutions to these equations and use these results to nondimensionalise the model. We then solve the model numerically to simulate a healthy balanced meal and a high fat meal and we discuss and compare these results. Our numerical results show good agreement with experimental data where we have data available to us and the results show behaviour that agrees with intuition where we currently have no data with which to compare

Changing atmospheric CO2 concentration was the primary driver of early Cenozoic climate

The Early Eocene Climate Optimum (EECO, which occurred about 51 to 53 million years ago)1, was the warmest interval of the past 65 million years, with mean annual surface air temperature over ten degrees Celsius warmer than during the pre-industrial period2–4. Subsequent global cooling in the middle and late Eocene epoch, especially at high latitudes, eventually led to continental ice sheet development in Antarctica in the early Oligocene epoch (about 33.6 million years ago). However, existing estimates place atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) levels during the Eocene at 500–3,000 parts per million5–7, and in the absence of tighter constraints carbon–climate interactions over this interval remain uncertain. Here we use recent analytical and methodological developments8–11 to generate a new high-fidelity record of CO2 concentrations using the boron isotope (δ11Β) composition of well preserved planktonic foraminifera from the Tanzania Drilling Project, revising previous estimates6. Although species-level uncertainties make absolute values difficult to constrain, CO2 concentrations during the EECO were around 1,400 parts per million. The relative decline in CO2 concentration through the Eocene is more robustly constrained at about fifty per cent, with a further decline into the Oligocene12. Provided the latitudinal dependency of sea surface temperature change for a given climate forcing in the Eocene was similar to that of the late Quaternary period13, this CO2 decline was sufficient to drive the well documented high- and low-latitude cooling that occurred through the Eocene14. Once the change in global temperature between the pre-industrial period and the Eocene caused by the action of all known slow feedbacks (apart from those associated with the carbon cycle) is removed2–4, both the EECO and the late Eocene exhibit an equilibrium climate sensitivity relative to the pre-industrial period of 2.1 to 4.6 degrees Celsius per CO2 doubling (66 per cent confidence), which is similar to the canonical range (1.5 to 4.5 degrees Celsius15), indicating that a large fraction of the warmth of the early Eocene greenhouse was driven by increased CO2 concentrations, and that climate sensitivity was relatively constant throughout this period

HIV-1 Populations in Semen Arise through Multiple Mechanisms

HIV-1 is present in anatomical compartments and bodily fluids. Most transmissions occur through sexual acts, making virus in semen the proximal source in male donors. We find three distinct relationships in comparing viral RNA populations between blood and semen in men with chronic HIV-1 infection, and we propose that the viral populations in semen arise by multiple mechanisms including: direct import of virus, oligoclonal amplification within the seminal tract, or compartmentalization. In addition, we find significant enrichment of six out of nineteen cytokines and chemokines in semen of both HIV-infected and uninfected men, and another seven further enriched in infected individuals. The enrichment of cytokines involved in innate immunity in the seminal tract, complemented with chemokines in infected men, creates an environment conducive to T cell activation and viral replication. These studies define different relationships between virus in blood and semen that can significantly alter the composition of the viral population at the source that is most proximal to the transmitted virus

An integrative approach to discovering cryptic species within the Bemisia tabaci whitefly species complex

Bemisia tabaci is a cryptic whitefly-species complex that includes some of the most damaging pests and plant-virus vectors of a diverse range of food and fibre crops worldwide. We combine experimental evidence of: (i) differences in reproductive compatibility, (ii) hybrid verification using a specific nuclear DNA marker and hybrid fertility confirmation and (iii) high-throughput sequencing-derived mitogenomes, to show that the “Mediterranean” (MED) B. tabaci comprises at least two distinct biological species; the globally invasive MED from the Mediterranean Basin and the “African silver-leafing” (ASL) from sub-Saharan Africa, which has no associated invasion records. We demonstrate that, contrary to its common name, the “ASL” does not induce squash silver-leafing symptoms and show that species delimitation based on the widely applied 3.5% partial mtCOI gene sequence divergence threshold produces discordant results, depending on the mtCOI region selected. Of the 292 published mtCOI sequences from MED/ASL groups, 158 (54%) are low quality and/or potential pseudogenes. We demonstrate fundamental deficiencies in delimiting cryptic B. tabaci species, based solely on partial sequences of a mitochondrial barcoding gene. We advocate an integrative approach to reveal the true species richness within cryptic species complexes, which is integral to the deployment of effective pest and disease management strategies

Species Delimitation in Taxonomically Difficult Fungi: The Case of Hymenogaster

False truffles are ecologically important as mycorrhizal partners of trees and evolutionarily highly interesting as the result of a shift from epigeous mushroom-like to underground fruiting bodies. Since its first description by Vittadini in 1831, inappropriate species concepts in the highly diverse false truffle genus Hymenogaster has led to continued confusion, caused by a large variety of prevailing taxonomical opinions.In this study, we reconsidered the species delimitations in Hymenogaster based on a comprehensive collection of Central European taxa comprising more than 140 fruiting bodies from 20 years of field work. The ITS rDNA sequence dataset was subjected to phylogenetic analysis as well as clustering optimization using OPTSIL software.Among distinct species concepts from the literature used to create reference partitions for clustering optimization, the broadest concept resulted in the highest agreement with the ITS data. Our results indicate a highly variable morphology of H. citrinus and H. griseus, most likely linked to environmental influences on the phenology (maturity, habitat, soil type and growing season). In particular, taxa described in the 19(th) century frequently appear as conspecific. Conversely, H. niveus appears as species complex comprising seven cryptic species with almost identical macro- and micromorphology. H. intermedius and H. huthii are described as novel species, each of which with a distinct morphology intermediate between two species complexes. A revised taxonomy for one of the most taxonomically difficult genera of Basidiomycetes is proposed, including an updated identification key. The (semi-)automated selection among species concepts used here is of importance for the revision of taxonomically problematic organism groups in general