Analysis of the global atmospheric background sulfur budget in a multi-model framework

Sulfate aerosol in the stratosphere is an important climate driver, causing solar dimming in the years after major volcanic eruptions. Hence, a growing number of general circulation models are adapting interactive sulfur and aerosol schemes to improve the representation of relevant chemical processes and associated feedbacks. However, uncertainties of these schemes are not well constrained. Stratospheric sulfate is modulated by natural emissions of sulfur-containing species, including volcanic eruptive, and anthropogenic emissions. Model intercomparisons have examined the effects of volcanic eruptions, whereas the background conditions of the sulfur cycle have not been addressed in a global model intercomparison project. Assessing background conditions in global models allows us to identify model discrepancies as they are masked by large perturbations such as volcanic eruptions, yet may still matter in the aftermath of such a disturbance. Here, we analyze the atmospheric burden, seasonal cycle, and vertical and meridional distribution of the main sulfur species among nine global atmospheric aerosol models that are widely used in the stratospheric aerosol research community. We use observational and reanalysis data to evaluate model results. Overall, models agree that the three dominant sulfur species in terms of burdens (sulfate aerosol, OCS, and SO2) make up about 98 % of stratospheric sulfur and 95 % of tropospheric sulfur. However, models vary considerably in the partitioning between these species. Models agree that anthropogenic emission of SO2 strongly affects the sulfate aerosol burden in the Northern Hemispheric troposphere, while its importance is very uncertain in other regions. The total deposition of sulfur varies among models, deviating by a factor of two, but models agree that sulfate aerosol is the main form in which sulfur is deposited. Additionally, the partitioning between wet and dry deposition fluxes is highly model dependent. We investigate the areas of greatest variability in the sulfur species burdens and find that inter-model variability is low in the tropics and increases towards the poles. Seasonality in the southern hemisphere is depicted very similar among models. Differences are largest in the dynamically active northern hemispheric extratropical region, hence some of the differences could be attributed to the differences in the representation of the stratospheric circulation among underlying general circulation models. This study highlights that the differences in the atmospheric sulfur budget among the models arise from the representation of both chemical and dynamical processes, whose interplay complicates the bias attribution. Several problematic points identified for individual models are related to the specifics of the chemistry schemes, model resolution, and representation of cross-tropopause transport in the extratropics. Further model intercomparison research is needed focusing on the clarification of the reasons for biases, given also the importance of this topic for the stratospheric aerosol injection studies.</p

HEPPA-II model–measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx  =  NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models\u27 gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March–April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2–0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05–0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project : EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008-2009

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx D NO+NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3-D chemistry transport model 3dCTM, the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMO-NIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modelling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20 %. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models' gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March-April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too-fast and early downward propagation of the NO x tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2-0.05 hPa), likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. In contrast, upper-mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05-0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too-slow descent and hence too-low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with mediumtop models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of- the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.Peer reviewe

Revisited Reference Solar Proton Event of 23 February 1956: Assessment of the Cosmogenic-Isotope Method Sensitivity to Extreme Solar Events

Our direct knowledge of solar eruptive events is limited to several decades and does not include extreme events, which can only be studied by the indirect proxy method over millennia, or by a large number of Sun‐like stars. There is a gap, spanning 1–2 orders of magnitude, in the strength of events between directly observed and reconstructed ones. Here, we study the proxy method sensitivity to identify extreme solar particle events (SPEs). First, the strongest directly observed SPE (23 February 1956), used as a reference for proxy‐based reconstructions, was revisited using the newly developed method. Next, sensitivity of the cosmogenic‐isotope method to detect a reference SPE was assessed against the precision and number of individual isotopic records, showing that it is too weak by a factor ≈30 to be reliably identified in a single record. Uncertainties of 10Be and 14C data are shown to be dominated by local/regional patterns and measurement errors, respectively. By combining several proxy records, a SPE 4–5 times stronger than the reference one can be potentially detected, increasing the present‐day sensitivity by an order of magnitude. This will allow filling the observational gap in SPE strength distribution, thus enriching statistics of extreme events from 3–4 presently known ones to several tens. This will provide a solid basis for research in the field of extreme events, both for fundamental science, namely solar and stellar physics, and practical applications, such as the risk assessments of severe space‐based hazards for modern technological society.ISSN:0148-0227ISSN:2169-938

Identification of the mechanisms responsible for anomalies in the tropical lower thermosphere/ionosphere caused by the January 2009 sudden stratospheric warming

We apply the Entire Atmosphere GLobal (EAGLE) model to investigate the upper atmosphere response to the January 2009 sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event. The model successfully reproduces neutral temperature and total electron content (TEC) observations. Using both model and observational data, we identify a cooling in the tropical lower thermosphere caused by the SSW. This cooling affects the zonal electric field close to the equator, leading to an enhanced vertical plasma drift. We demonstrate that along with a SSW-related wind disturbance, which is the main source to form a dynamo electric field in the ionosphere, perturbations of the ionospheric conductivity also make a significant contribution to the formation of the electric field response to SSW. The post-sunset TEC enhancement and pre-sunrise electron content reduction are revealed as a response to the 2009 SSW. We show that at post-sunset hours the SSW affects low-latitude TEC via a disturbance of the meridional electric field. We also show that the phase change of the semidiurnal migrating solar tide (SW2) in the neutral wind caused by the 2009 SSW at the altitude of the dynamo electric field generation has a crucial importance for the SW2 phase change in the zonal electric field. Such changes lead to the appearance of anomalous diurnal variability of the equatorial electromagnetic plasma drift and subsequent low-latitudinal TEC disturbances in agreement with available observations. Plain Language Summary – Entire Atmosphere GLobal model (EAGLE) interactively calculates the troposphere, stratosphere, mesosphere, thermosphere, and plasmasphere–ionosphere system states and their response to various natural and anthropogenic forcing. In this paper, we study the upper atmosphere response to the major sudden stratospheric warming that occurred in January 2009. Our results agree well with the observed evolution of the neutral temperature in the upper atmosphere and with low-latitude ionospheric disturbances over America. For the first time, we identify an SSW-related cooling in the tropical lower thermosphere that, in turn, could provide additional information for understanding the mechanisms for the generation of electric field disturbances observed at low latitudes. We show that the SSW-related vertical electromagnetic drift due to electric field disturbances is a key mechanism for interpretation of an observed anomalous diurnal development of the equatorial ionization anomaly during the 2009 SSW event. We demonstrate that the link between thermospheric winds and the ionospheric dynamo electric field during the SSW is attained through the modulation of the semidiurnal migrating solar tide

Revisited reference solar proton event of 23 February 1956:assessment of the cosmogenic‐isotope method sensitivity to extreme solar events

Abstract Our direct knowledge of solar eruptive events is limited to several decades and does not include extreme events, which can only be studied by the indirect proxy method over millennia, or by a large number of Sun‐like stars. There is a gap, spanning 1–2 orders of magnitude, in the strength of events between directly observed and reconstructed ones. Here, we study the proxy method sensitivity to identify extreme solar particle events (SPEs). First, the strongest directly observed SPE (23 February 1956), used as a reference for proxy‐based reconstructions, was revisited using the newly developed method. Next, sensitivity of the cosmogenic‐isotope method to detect a reference SPE was assessed against the precision and number of individual isotopic records, showing that it is too weak by a factor ≈30 to be reliably identified in a single record. Uncertainties of 10Be and 14C data are shown to be dominated by local/regional patterns and measurement errors, respectively. By combining several proxy records, a SPE 4–5 times stronger than the reference one can be potentially detected, increasing the present‐day sensitivity by an order of magnitude. This will allow filling the observational gap in SPE strength distribution, thus enriching statistics of extreme events from 3–4 presently known ones to several tens. This will provide a solid basis for research in the field of extreme events, both for fundamental science, namely solar and stellar physics, and practical applications, such as the risk assessments of severe space‐based hazards for modern technological society

Exceptional middle latitude electron precipitation detected by balloon observations:implications for atmospheric composition

Abstract Energetic particle precipitation leads to ionization in the Earth’s atmosphere, initiating the formation of active chemical species which destroy ozone and have the potential to impact atmospheric composition and dynamics down to the troposphere. We report on one exceptionally strong high-energy electron precipitation event detected by balloon measurements in geomagnetic midlatitudes on 14 December 2009, with ionization rates locally comparable to strong solar proton events. This electron precipitation was possibly caused by wave–particle interactions in the slot region between the inner and outer radiation belts, connected with still poorly understood natural phenomena in the magnetosphere. Satellite observations of odd nitrogen and nitric acid are consistent with widespread electron precipitation into magnetic midlatitudes. Simulations with a 3D chemistry–climate model indicate the almost complete destruction of ozone in the upper mesosphere over the region where high-energy electron precipitation occurred. Such an extraordinary type of energetic particle precipitation can have major implications for the atmosphere, and their frequency and strength should be carefully studied

Heppa III Intercomparison Experiment on Electron Precipitation Impacts: 2. Model-Measurement Intercomparison of Nitric Oxide (NO) During a Geomagnetic Storm in April 2010

Precipitating auroral and radiation belt electrons are considered to play an important part in the natural forcing of the middle atmosphere with a possible impact on the climate system. Recent studies suggest that this forcing is underestimated in current chemistry-climate models. The HEPPA III intercomparison experiment is a collective effort to address this point. In this study, we apply electron ionization rates from three data-sets in four chemistry-climate models during a geomagnetically active period in April 2010. Results are evaluated by comparison with observations of nitric oxide (NO) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Differences between the ionization rate data-sets have been assessed in a companion study. In the lower thermosphere, NO densities differ by up to one order of magnitude between models using the same ionization rate data-sets due to differences in the treatment of NO formation, model climatology, and model top height. However, a good agreement in the spatial and temporal variability of NO with observations lends confidence that the electron ionization is represented well above 80 km. In the mesosphere, the averages of model results from all chemistry-climate models differ consistently with the differences in the ionization-rate data-sets, but are within the spread of the observations, so no clear assessment on their comparative validity can be provided. However, observed enhanced amounts of NO in the mid-mesosphere below 70 km suggest a relevant contribution of the high-energy tail of the electron distribution to the hemispheric NO budget during and after the geomagnetic storm on April 6.ISSN:0148-0227ISSN:2169-938

Analysis of the global atmospheric background sulfur budget in a multi-model framework

A growing number of general circulation models are adapting interactive sulfur and aerosol schemes to improve the representation of relevant physical and chemical processes and associated feedbacks. They are motivated by investigations of climate response to major volcanic eruptions and potential solar geoengineering scenarios. However, uncertainties in these schemes are not well constrained. Stratospheric sulfate is modulated by emissions of sulfur-containing species of anthropogenic and natural origin, including volcanic activity. While the effects of volcanic eruptions have been studied in the framework of global model intercomparisons, the background conditions of the sulfur cycle have not been addressed in such a way. Here, we fill this gap by analyzing the distribution of the main sulfur species in nine global atmospheric aerosol models for a volcanically quiescent period. We use observational data to evaluate model results. Overall, models agree that the three dominant sulfur species in terms of burdens (sulfate aerosol, OCS, and SO2) make up about 98 % stratospheric sulfur and 95 % tropospheric sulfur. However, models vary considerably in the partitioning between these species. Models agree that anthropogenic emission of SO2 strongly affects the sulfate aerosol burden in the northern hemispheric troposphere, while its importance is very uncertain in other regions, where emissions are much lower. Sulfate aerosol is the main deposited species in all models, but the values deviate by a factor of 2. Additionally, the partitioning between wet and dry deposition fluxes is highly model dependent. Inter-model variability in the sulfur species is low in the tropics and increases towards the poles. Differences are largest in the dynamically active northern hemispheric extratropical region and could be attributed to the representation of the stratospheric circulation. The differences in the atmospheric sulfur budget among the models arise from the representation of both chemical and dynamical processes, whose interplay complicates the bias attribution. Several problematic points identified for individual models are related to the specifics of the chemistry schemes, model resolution, and representation of cross-tropopause transport in the extratropics. Further model intercomparison research is needed with a focus on the clarification of the reasons for biases, given the importance of this topic for the stratospheric aerosol injection studies.</p

HEPPA-II model-measurement intercomparison project: EPP indirect effects during the dynamically perturbed NH winter 2008/2009

We compare simulations from three high-top (with upper lid above 120 km) and five medium-top (with upper lid around 80 km) atmospheric models with observations of odd nitrogen (NOx = NO + NO2), temperature, and carbon monoxide from seven satellite instruments (ACE-FTS on SciSat, GOMOS, MIPAS, and SCIAMACHY on Envisat, MLS on Aura, SABER on TIMED, and SMR on Odin) during the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar winter 2008/2009. The models included in the comparison are the 3d Chemistry Transport model (3dCTM), the ECHAM5/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model, FinROSE, the Hamburg Model of the Neutral and Ionized Atmosphere (HAMMONIA), the Karlsruhe Simulation Model of the Middle Atmosphere (KASIMA), the modeling tools for SOlar Climate Ozone Links studies (SOCOL and CAO-SOCOL), and the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM4). The comparison focuses on the energetic particle precipitation (EPP) indirect effect, that is, the polar winter descent of NOx largely produced by EPP in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. A particular emphasis is given to the impact of the sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2009 and the subsequent elevated stratopause (ES) event associated with enhanced descent of mesospheric air. The chemistry climate model simulations have been nudged toward reanalysis data in the troposphere and stratosphere while being unconstrained above. An odd nitrogen upper boundary condition obtained from MIPAS observations has further been applied to medium-top models. Most models provide a good representation of the mesospheric tracer descent in general, and the EPP indirect effect in particular, during the unperturbed (pre-SSW) period of the NH winter 2008/2009. The observed NOx descent into the lower mesosphere and stratosphere is generally reproduced within 20%. Larger discrepancies of a few model simulations could be traced back either to the impact of the models’ gravity wave drag scheme on the polar wintertime meridional circulation or to a combination of prescribed NOx mixing ratio at the uppermost model layer and low vertical resolution. In March–April, after the ES event, however, modelled mesospheric and stratospheric NOx distributions deviate significantly from the observations. The too fast and early downward propagation of the NOx tongue, encountered in most simulations, coincides with a temperature high bias in the lower mesosphere (0.2–0.05 hPa) being likely caused by an overestimation of descent velocities. On the other hand, upper mesospheric temperatures (at 0.05–0.001 hPa) are generally underestimated by the high-top models after the onset of the ES event, being indicative for too slow descent and hence too low NOx fluxes. As a consequence, the magnitude of the simulated NOx tongue is generally underestimated by these models. Descending NOx amounts simulated with medium-top models are on average closer to the observations but show a large spread of up to several hundred percent. This is primarily attributed to the different vertical model domains in which the NOx upper boundary condition is applied. In general, the intercomparison demonstrates the ability of state-of-the-art atmospheric models to reproduce the EPP indirect effect in dynamically and geomagnetically quiescent NH winter conditions. The encountered differences between observed and simulated NOx, CO, and temperature distributions during the perturbed phase of the 2009 NH winter, however, emphasize the need for model improvements in the dynamical representation of elevated stratopause events in order to allow for a better description of the EPP indirect effect under these particular conditions.ISSN:1680-7375ISSN:1680-736