Risk measurement: an introduction to value at risk

This paper is a self-contained introduction to the concept and methodology of "value at risk," which is a new tool for measuring an entity's exposure to market risk. We explain the concept of value at risk, and then describe in detail the three methods for computing it: historical simulation; the variance-covariance method; and Monte Carlo or stochastic simulation. We then discuss the advantages and disadvantages of the three methods for computing value at risk. Finally, we briefly describe some alternative measures of market risk.Risk and Uncertainty,

Cone Beam Computertomography (CBCT) in Interventional Chest Medicine – High Feasibility for Endobronchial Real Time Navigation

Introduction: Currently there are several advanced guiding techniques for pathoanatomical diagnosis of incidental solitary pulmonary nodules (iSPN): Electromagnetic navigation (EMN) with or without endobronchial ultrasound (EBUS) with miniprobe, transthoracic ultrasound (TTUS) for needle approach to the pleural wall and adjacent lung and computed tomography (CT)-guidance for (seldom if ever used) endobronchial or (common) transthoracical approach. In several situations one technique is not enough for efficient diagnosis, therefore we investigated a new diagnostic technique of endobronchial guided biopsies by a Cone Beam Computertomography (CBCT) called DynaCT (SIEMENS AG Forchheim, Germany). Method and Material: In our study 33 incidental solitary pulmonary nodules (iSPNs) (28 malignant, 5 benign; mean diameter 25 +/-12mm, shortest distance to pleura 25+/-18mm) were eligible according to in- and exclusion criteria. Realtime and onsite navigation were performed according to our standard protocol.22 All iSPN were controlled with a second technique when necessary and clinical feasible in case of unspecific or unexpected histological result. In all cases common guidelines of treatment of different iSPNs were followed in a routine manner. Results: Overall navigational yield (ny) was 91% and diagnostic yield (dy) 70%, dy for all accomplished malignant cases (n=28) was 82%. In the subgroup analysis of the invisible iSPN (n=12, 11 malignant, 1 benign; mean diameter 15+/-3mm) we found an overall dy of 75%. For the first time we describe a significant difference in specifity of biopsy results in regards to the position of the forceps in the 3-dimensional volume (3DV) of the iSPN in the whole sample group. Comparing the specifity of biopsies of a 3D-uncentered but inside the outer one third of an iSPN-3DV with the specifity of biopsies of centered forceps position (meaning the inner two third of an iSPN-3DV) reveals a significant (p=0,0375 McNemar) difference for the size group (\u3e1cm) of 0,9 for centered biopsies vs. 0,3 for uncentered biopsies. Therefore only 3D-centered biopsies should be relied on especially in case of a benign result. Conclusion: The diagnostic yield of DynaCT navigation guided transbronchial biopsies (TBB) only with forceps is at least up to twofold higher than conventional TBB for iSPNs \u3c2cm. The diagnostic yield of DynaCT navigation guided forceps TBB in invisible SPNs is at least in the range of other navigation studies which were performed partly with multiple navigation tools and multiple instruments. For future diagnostic and therapeutic approaches it is so far the only onsite and realtime extrathoracic navigation approach (except for computed tomography (CT)-fluoroscopy) in the bronchoscopy suite which keeps the working channel open. The system purchase represents an important investment for hospitals but it is a multidisciplinary and multinavigational tool with possible access via bronchial airways, transthoracical or vascular approach at the same time and on the same table without the need for an expensive disposable instrument use

Data on erosion and hydrogen fuel retention in Beryllium plasma-facing materials

ITER will use beryllium as a plasma-facing material in the main chamber, covering a total surface area of about 620 m(2). Given the importance of beryllium erosion and co-deposition for tritium retention in ITER, significant efforts have been made to understand the behaviour of beryllium under fusion-relevant conditions with high particle and heat loads. This paper provides a comprehensive report on the state of knowledge of beryllium behaviour under fusion-relevant conditions: the erosion mechanisms and their consequences, beryllium migration in JET, fuel retention and dust generation. The paper reviews basic laboratory studies, advanced computer simulations and experience from laboratory plasma experiments in linear simulators of plasma-wall interactions and in controlled fusion devices using beryllium plasma-facing components. A critical assessment of analytical methods and simulation codes used in beryllium studies is given. The overall objective is to review the existing set of data with a broad literature survey and to identify gaps and research needs to broaden the database for ITER.Peer reviewe

Plasma-wall interaction studies within the EUROfusion consortium: Progress on plasma-facing components development and qualification

This work has been carried out within the framework of the EUROfusion Consortium and has received funding from the Euratom research and training programme 2014-2018 under grant agreement No 633053. The views and opinions expressed herein do not necessarily reflect those of the European Commission.The provision of a particle and power exhaust solution which is compatible with first-wall components and edge-plasma conditions is a key area of present-day fusion research and mandatory for a successful operation of ITER and DEMO. The work package plasma-facing components (WP PFC) within the European fusion programme complements with laboratory experiments, i.e. in linear plasma devices, electron and ion beam loading facilities, the studies performed in toroidally confined magnetic devices, such as JET, ASDEX Upgrade, WEST etc. The connection of both groups is done via common physics and engineering studies, including the qualification and specification of plasma-facing components, and by modelling codes that simulate edge-plasma conditions and the plasma-material interaction as well as the study of fundamental processes. WP PFC addresses these critical points in order to ensure reliable and efficient use of conventional, solid PFCs in ITER (Be and W) and DEMO (W and steel) with respect to heat-load capabilities (transient and steady-state heat and particle loads), lifetime estimates (erosion, material mixing and surface morphology), and safety aspects (fuel retention, fuel removal, material migration and dust formation) particularly for quasi-steady-state conditions. Alternative scenarios and concepts (liquid Sn or Li as PFCs) for DEMO are developed and tested in the event that the conventional solution turns out to not be functional. Here, we present an overview of the activities with an emphasis on a few key results: (i) the observed synergistic effects in particle and heat loading of ITER-grade W with the available set of exposition devices on material properties such as roughness, ductility and microstructure; (ii) the progress in understanding of fuel retention, diffusion and outgassing in different W-based materials, including the impact of damage and impurities like N; and (iii), the preferential sputtering of Fe in EUROFER steel providing an in situ W surface and a potential first-wall solution for DEMO.European Commission; Consortium for Ocean Leadership 633053; Institute of Solid State Physics, University of Latvia as the Center of Excellence has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 Framework Programme H2020-WIDESPREAD-01-2016-2017-TeamingPhase2 under grant agreement No. 739508, project CAMART

Demonstration of reduced neoclassical energy transport in Wendelstein 7-X

Research on magnetic confinement of high-temperature plasmas has the ultimate goal of harnessing nuclear fusion for the production of electricity. Although the tokamak(1) is the leading toroidal magnetic-confinement concept, it is not without shortcomings and the fusion community has therefore also pursued alternative concepts such as the stellarator. Unlike axisymmetric tokamaks, stellarators possess a three-dimensional (3D) magnetic field geometry. The availability of this additional dimension opens up an extensive configuration space for computational optimization of both the field geometry itself and the current-carrying coils that produce it. Such an optimization was undertaken in designing Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X)(2), a large helical-axis advanced stellarator (HELIAS), which began operation in 2015 at Greifswald, Germany. A major drawback of 3D magnetic field geometry, however, is that it introduces a strong temperature dependence into the stellarator's non-turbulent 'neoclassical' energy transport. Indeed, such energy losses will become prohibitive in high-temperature reactor plasmas unless a strong reduction of the geometrical factor associated with this transport can be achieved; such a reduction was therefore a principal goal of the design of W7-X. In spite of the modest heating power currently available, W7-X has already been able to achieve high-temperature plasma conditions during its 2017 and 2018 experimental campaigns, producing record values of the fusion triple product for such stellarator plasmas(3,4). The triple product of plasma density, ion temperature and energy confinement time is used in fusion research as a figure of merit, as it must attain a certain threshold value before net-energy-producing operation of a reactor becomes possible(1,5). Here we demonstrate that such record values provide evidence for reduced neoclassical energy transport in W7-X, as the plasma profiles that produced these results could not have been obtained in stellarators lacking a comparably high level of neoclassical optimization.Previously documented record values of the fusion triple product in the stellarator Wendelstein 7-X are shown to be evidence for reduced neoclassical energy transport in this optimized device

Modelling of the effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W divertor of JET

Effect of ELMs on fuel retention at the bulk W target of JET ITER-Like Wall was studied with multi-scale calculations. Plasma input parameters were taken from ELMy H-mode plasma experiment. The energetic intra-ELM fuel particles get implanted and create near-surface defects up to depths of few tens of nm, which act as the main fuel trapping sites during ELMs. Clustering of implantation-induced vacancies were found to take place. The incoming flux of inter-ELM plasma particles increases the different filling levels of trapped fuel in defects. The temperature increase of the W target during the pulse increases the fuel detrapping rate. The inter-ELM fuel particle flux refills the partially emptied trapping sites and fills new sites. This leads to a competing effect on the retention and release rates of the implanted particles. At high temperatures the main retention appeared in larger vacancy clusters due to increased clustering rate

Modelling of tungsten erosion and deposition in the divertor of JET-ILW in comparison to experimental findings

The erosion, transport and deposition of tungsten in the outer divertor of JET-ILW has been studied for an HMode discharge with low frequency ELMs. For this specific case with an inter-ELM electron temperature at the strike point of about 20 eV, tungsten sputtering between ELMs is almost exclusively due to beryllium impurity and self-sputtering. However, during ELMs tungsten sputtering due to deuterium becomes important and even dominates. The amount of simulated local deposition of tungsten relative to the amount of sputtered tungsten in between ELMs is very high and reaches values of 99% for an electron density of 5E13 cm$^{-3}$ at the strike point and electron temperatures between 10 and 30 eV. Smaller deposition values are simulated with reduced electron density. The direction of the B-field significantly influences the local deposition and leads to a reduction if the E×B drift directs towards the scrape-off-layer. Also, the thermal force can reduce the tungsten deposition, however, an ion temperature gradient of about 0.1 eV/mm or larger is needed for a significant effect. The tungsten deposition simulated during ELMs reaches values of about 98% assuming ELM parameters according to free-streaming model. The measured WI emission profiles in between and within ELMs have been reproduced by the simulation. The contribution to the overall net tungsten erosion during ELMs is about 5 times larger than the one in between ELMs for the studied case. However, this is due to the rather low electron temperature in between ELMs, which leads to deuterium impact energies below the sputtering threshold for tungsten