Predicting the cost of the consequences of a large nuclear accident in the UK

Nuclear accidents have the potential to lead to significant off-site effects that require actions to minimise the radiological impacts on people. Such countermeasures may include sheltering, evacuation, restrictions on the sale of locally-grown food, and long-term relocation of the population amongst others. Countries with nuclear facilities draw up emergency preparedness plans, and put in place such provisions as distributing instructions and iodine prophylaxis to the local population. Their plans are applied in simulated exercises on a regular basis. The costs associated with emergency preparedness and the safety provisions to reduce the likelihood of an accident, and/or mitigate the consequences, are justified on the basis of the health risks and accident costs averted. There is, of course, only limited actual experience to indicate the likely costs so that much of the costing of accidents is based on calculations. This paper reviews the methodologies used, in particular the approach that has been developed in the UK, to appraise the costs of a hypothetical nuclear accident. Results of analysing a hypothetical nuclear accident at a fictitious reactor site within the United Kingdom are discussed in relation to the accidents at Three Mile Island 2, Chernobyl and Fukushima Dai-ichi

Inadequate Revenue Threatens Afghanistan’s Stability

If Afghanistan is to maintain some semblance of stability in 2014 and beyond it must prepare for a substantial donor funding reduction and seek to grow its domestic revenue. Funding for the Afghan government’s operating expenses as well as further development projects is heavily dependent on donor support. Unfortunately for Afghanistan, its fiscal position is eroding as domestic revenues decline, expenses rise, and donor aid falls. Security gains as well as public services and economic development are at risk due to this mismatch. Afghanistan’s challenge in the coming years will be how to deal with this mismatch without fueling instability. It cannot simply assume that donor funding will continue to cover its funding gap. This paper assesses Afghanistan’s deteriorating fiscal situation and concludes with some observations on what the Afghan government and the donor community must do, preferably in concert, to address it. It assumes that Afghanistan and the United States will ultimately sign a bilateral security agreement allowing a continued coalition military presence, without which the country’s fiscal situation could rapidly deteriorate