Predicting the cost of the consequences of a large nuclear accident in the UK

Nuclear accidents have the potential to lead to significant off-site effects that require actions to minimise the radiological impacts on people. Such countermeasures may include sheltering, evacuation, restrictions on the sale of locally-grown food, and long-term relocation of the population amongst others. Countries with nuclear facilities draw up emergency preparedness plans, and put in place such provisions as distributing instructions and iodine prophylaxis to the local population. Their plans are applied in simulated exercises on a regular basis. The costs associated with emergency preparedness and the safety provisions to reduce the likelihood of an accident, and/or mitigate the consequences, are justified on the basis of the health risks and accident costs averted. There is, of course, only limited actual experience to indicate the likely costs so that much of the costing of accidents is based on calculations. This paper reviews the methodologies used, in particular the approach that has been developed in the UK, to appraise the costs of a hypothetical nuclear accident. Results of analysing a hypothetical nuclear accident at a fictitious reactor site within the United Kingdom are discussed in relation to the accidents at Three Mile Island 2, Chernobyl and Fukushima Dai-ichi

Reputation effects of nuclear accidents

International audienceNuclear accidents act as a negative shock on the reputation of food products, even beyond contaminated areas. Reviewing the literature, we show how the reactions of consumers and producers when facing a nuclear crisis can amplify or mitigate the food crisis. We then detail a simple methodology to estimate the direct, indirect and induced effect of the reputation damage on the food sectors. We show that total economic losses could range between 10 to 100 billion euros, depending on the final demand drop scenarios. We further describe new research avenues relying on behavioral and experimental economic methods to mitigate the causality issue of the estimation of direct reputation effects

Nuclear refugees after large radioactive releases

International audienceHowever improbable, large radioactive releases from a nuclear power plant would entail major consequences for the surrounding population. In Fukushima, 80,000 people had to evacuate the most contaminated areas around the NPP for a prolonged period of time. These people have been called "nuclear refugees". The paper first argues that the number of nuclear refugees is a better measure of the severity of radiological consequences than the number of fatalities, although the latter is widely used to assess other catastrophic events such as earthquakes or tsunami. It is a valuable partial indicator in the context of comprehensive studies of overall consequences. Section 2 makes a clear distinction between long-term relocation and emergency evacuation and proposes a method to estimate the number of refugees. Section 3 examines the distribution of nuclear refugees with respect to weather and release site. The distribution is asymmetric and fat-tailed unfavorable weather can lead to the contamination of large areas of land; large cities have in turn a higher probability of being contaminated. © 2015 Elsevier Ltd

Reputation effects of nuclear accidents

International audienceNuclear accidents act as a negative shock on the reputation of food products, even beyond contaminated areas. Reviewing the literature, we show how the reactions of consumers and producers when facing a nuclear crisis can amplify or mitigate the food crisis. We then detail a simple methodology to estimate the direct, indirect and induced effect of the reputation damage on the food sectors. We show that total economic losses could range between 10 to 100 billion euros, depending on the final demand drop scenarios. We further describe new research avenues relying on behavioral and experimental economic methods to mitigate the causality issue of the estimation of direct reputation effects

Évaluation pilote des choix expérimentaux auprès de spécialistes français du nucléaire : mesure de la valeur intangible de territoires contaminés

International audienceA discrete choice experiment was conducted in France to value the loss of welfare from a nuclear accident, using a sample of 400 respondent working in the French nuclear safety authority (ASN) and the French Institute for radiation protection and nuclear safety (IRSN). The respondents were asked to choose between three different alternatives describing life conditions in their supposed living territory after a nuclear accident. These alternatives were characterized by the proportion of people who stay in the territory after the accident, the proportion of services remaining in the territory, whether or not access to nature is prohibited and the duration of the deteriorated situation. A mixed-logit model shows that the access to areas of nature and the runaway of services are the main sources of disutility. People having children under 18 years old and those living outside the Paris region give more importance to these aspects, whereas younger people and people leaving in the Paris region value the proportion of persons and services around them higher. The mean willingness to pay (WTP) per household to avoid living in a contaminated territory for 30 years is about 18,000 euros. An important finding of the paper is that places considered as more important by inhabitants are not necessarily the ones they attend more. The study sheds some light on strategies to mitigate welfare loss of welfare after a nuclear accident

Évaluation pilote des choix expérimentaux auprès de spécialistes français du nucléaire : mesure de la valeur intangible de territoires contaminés

International audienceA discrete choice experiment was conducted in France to value the loss of welfare from a nuclear accident, using a sample of 400 respondent working in the French nuclear safety authority (ASN) and the French Institute for radiation protection and nuclear safety (IRSN). The respondents were asked to choose between three different alternatives describing life conditions in their supposed living territory after a nuclear accident. These alternatives were characterized by the proportion of people who stay in the territory after the accident, the proportion of services remaining in the territory, whether or not access to nature is prohibited and the duration of the deteriorated situation. A mixed-logit model shows that the access to areas of nature and the runaway of services are the main sources of disutility. People having children under 18 years old and those living outside the Paris region give more importance to these aspects, whereas younger people and people leaving in the Paris region value the proportion of persons and services around them higher. The mean willingness to pay (WTP) per household to avoid living in a contaminated territory for 30 years is about 18,000 euros. An important finding of the paper is that places considered as more important by inhabitants are not necessarily the ones they attend more. The study sheds some light on strategies to mitigate welfare loss of welfare after a nuclear accident

Évaluation pilote des choix expérimentaux auprès de spécialistes français du nucléaire : mesure de la valeur intangible de territoires contaminés

International audienceA discrete choice experiment was conducted in France to value the loss of welfare from a nuclear accident, using a sample of 400 respondent working in the French nuclear safety authority (ASN) and the French Institute for radiation protection and nuclear safety (IRSN). The respondents were asked to choose between three different alternatives describing life conditions in their supposed living territory after a nuclear accident. These alternatives were characterized by the proportion of people who stay in the territory after the accident, the proportion of services remaining in the territory, whether or not access to nature is prohibited and the duration of the deteriorated situation. A mixed-logit model shows that the access to areas of nature and the runaway of services are the main sources of disutility. People having children under 18 years old and those living outside the Paris region give more importance to these aspects, whereas younger people and people leaving in the Paris region value the proportion of persons and services around them higher. The mean willingness to pay (WTP) per household to avoid living in a contaminated territory for 30 years is about 18,000 euros. An important finding of the paper is that places considered as more important by inhabitants are not necessarily the ones they attend more. The study sheds some light on strategies to mitigate welfare loss of welfare after a nuclear accident

Une approche multi-experts, multi-acteurs et multicritères : exercice d’application à la gestion soutenable des déchets radioactifs de très faible activité (TFA)

International audienceThe energy and territorial transition in which French and European environmental policy is embedded raises the issue of sustainable management of radioactive waste. In this context, IRSN has launched an innovative deliberative action-research approach based on the issue of the management of so-called "very low activity" waste (VLLW). A multi-actor, multi-expertise and multi-criteria approach has been set up for this purpose. This paper proposes an overview of the contributions and limitations of the multi-actor and multi-criteria approach for the sustainable management of VLLW waste. These aspects are discussed following a three phases approach. The core methodology focus on the management scenarios that are considered by experts and stakeholders based both on a "reasoned" voting protocol and a multi-criteria hierarchical process (multi-expertise and multi-stakeholder). This paper presents at an early stage a way to frame a methodology