The rise and fall of tuberculosis in Malawi: associations with HIV infection and antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: Since 1985, Malawi has experienced a dual epidemic of HIV and tuberculosis (TB) which has been moderated recently by the advent of antiretroviral therapy (ART). The aim of this study was to describe the association over several decades between HIV/AIDS, the scale-up of ART and TB case notifications. METHODS: Aggregate data were extracted from annual reports of the National TB Control Programme, the Ministry of Health HIV Department and the National Statistics Office. ART coverage was calculated using the total HIV population as denominator (derived from UNAIDS Spectrum software). RESULTS: In 1970, there were no HIV-infected persons but numbers had increased to a maximum of 1.18 million by 2014. HIV prevalence reached a maximum of 10.8% in 2000, thereafter decreasing to 7.5% by 2014. Numbers alive on ART increased from 2586 in 2003 to 536 527 (coverage 45.3%) by 2014. In 1985, there were 5286 TB cases which reached a maximum of 28 234 in 2003 and then decreased to 17 723 by 2014 (37% decline from 2003). There were increases in all types of new TB between 1998-2003 which then declined by 30% for extrapulmonary TB, by 37% for new smear-positive PTB and by 50% for smear-negative PTB. Previously treated TB cases reached a maximum of 3443 in 2003 and then declined by 42% by 2014. CONCLUSION: The rise and fall of TB in Malawi between 1985 and 2014 was strongly associated with HIV infection and ART scale-up; this has implications for ending the TB epidemic in high HIV-TB burden countries

Ending the HIV/AIDS epidemic in low- and middle-income countries by 2030: is it possible?

The international community has committed to ending the epidemics of HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and neglected tropical infections by 2030, and this bold stance deserves universal support. In this paper, we discuss whether this ambitious goal is achievable for HIV/AIDS and what is needed to further accelerate progress. The joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 targets and the related strategy are built upon currently available health technologies that can diagnose HIV infection and suppress viral replication in all people with HIV. Nonetheless, there is much work to be done in ensuring equitable access to these HIV services for key populations and those who remain outside the rims of the traditional health services. Identifying a cure and a preventive vaccine would further help accelerate progress in ending the epidemic. Other disease control programmes could learn from the response to the HIV/AIDS epidemic

Recurrent tuberculosis and associated factors : a five-year countrywide study in Uzbekistan

Background:  In Uzbekistan, despite stable and relatively high tuberculosis treatment success rates, relatively high rates of recurrent tuberculosis have recently been reported. Recurrent tuberculosis is when a patient who was treated for pulmonary tuberculosis and cured, later develops the disease again. This requires closer analysis to identify possible causes and recommend interventions to improve the situation. Using countrywide data, this study aimed to analyse trends in recurrent tuberculosis cases and describe their associations with socio-demographic and clinical factors. Method:  Countrywide retrospective cohort study comparing recurrent tuberculosis patients with all new tuberculosis patients registered within the NTP between January 2006 and December 2010 using routinely collected data. Determinants studied were baseline characteristics and treatment outcomes. Results:  Of 107,380 registered patients during the period January 2006 and December 2010, 9358 (8.7%) were recurrent cases. Between 2006 and 2008, the number of recurrent cases per annum increased from 1530 to 2081, then fell slightly thereafter from 2081 to 1888 cases. The proportion of all notified cases during this period increased from 6.5% to 9.9%. Factors associated with recurrent tuberculosis included age (35–55 years old), having smear positive pulmonary tuberculosis, residing in certain areas of Uzbekistan, having particular co-morbidities (including chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and HIV), and being unemployed, a pensioner or disabled. Recurrent tuberculosis patients also had a higher likelihood of having an unfavourable treatment outcome. Conclusion:  Despite signs of declining national tuberculosis notifications between 2006 and 2010, the relative proportion of recurrent cases appears to have increased. These findings, together with the identification of possible risk factors associated with recurrent tuberculosis, highlight various areas where Uzbekistan needs to focus its tuberculosis control efforts, particularly in light of the country’s rapidly emerging multi drug resistant tuberculosis epidemic.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Reliability and accuracy of the South African Triage Scale when used by nurses in the emergency department of Timergara Hospital, Pakistan

Background. Triage is one of the core requirements for the provision of effective emergency care and has been shown to reduce patient mortality. However, in low- and middle-income countries this strategy is underused, under-resourced and poorly researched.Objective. To assess the inter- and intra-rater reliability and accuracy of nurse triage ratings when using the South African Triage Scale (SATS) in an emergency department (ED) in Timergara, Pakistan.Methods. Fifteen ED nurses assigned triage ratings to a set of 42 reference vignettes (written case reports of ED patients) under classroom conditions. Inter-rater reliability was assessed by comparing these triage ratings; intra-rater reliability was assessed by asking the nurses to re-triage 10 random vignettes from the original set of 42 vignettes and comparing these duplicate ratings. Accuracy of the nurse ratings was measured against the reference standard.Results. Inter-rater reliability was substantial (intraclass correlation coefficient 0.77; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69 - 0.85). The intra-rater agreement was also high with 87% exact agreement (95% CI 67 - 100) and 100% agreement allowing for a one-level discrepancy in triage ratings. Overall, the SATS had high specificity (97%) and moderate sensitivity (70%). Across all acuity levels the proportion of over-triage did not exceed the acceptable threshold of 30 - 50%. Under-triage was acceptable for all except emergency cases (66%).Conclusion. ED nurses in Pakistan can reliably use the SATS to assign triage acuity ratings. While the tool is accurate for ‘very urgent’ and ‘routine’ cases, importantly, it may under-triage ‘emergency’ cases requiring immediate attention. Approaches that will improve accuracy and validity are discussed

Obstetric fistula in Burundi: a comprehensive approach to managing women with this neglected disease.

BACKGROUND: In Burundi, the annual incidence of obstetric fistula is estimated to be 0.2-0.5% of all deliveries, with 1000-2000 new cases per year. Despite this relatively high incidence, national capacity for identifying and managing obstetric fistula is very limited. Thus, in July 2010, Medecins Sans Frontieres (MSF) set up a specialised Obstetric Fistula Centre in Gitega (Gitega Fistula Centre, GFC), the only permanent referral centre for obstetric fistula in Burundi. A comprehensive model of care is offered including psychosocial support, conservative and surgical management, post-operative care and follow-up. We describe this model of care, patient outcomes and the operational challenges. METHODS: Descriptive study using routine programme data. RESULTS: Between July 2010 and December 2011, 470 women with obstetric fistula presented for the first time at GFC, of whom 458 (98%) received treatment. Early urinary catheterization (conservative management) was successful in four out of 35 (11%) women. Of 454 (99%) women requiring surgical management, 394 (87%) were discharged with a closed fistula, of whom 301 (76%) were continent of urine and/or faeces, while 93 (24%) remained incontinent of urine and/or faeces. In 59 (13%) cases, the fistula was complex and could not be closed. Outcome status was unknown for one woman. Median duration of stay at GFC was 39 days (Interquartile range IQR, 31-51 days). CONCLUSION: In a rural African setting, it is feasible to implement a comprehensive package of fistula care using a dedicated fistula facility, and satisfactory surgical repair outcomes can be achieved. Several operational challenges are discussed

Global urban environmental change drives adaptation in white clover

Urbanization transforms environments in ways that alter biological evolution. We examined whether urban environmental change drives parallel evolution by sampling 110,019 white clover plants from 6169 populations in 160 cities globally. Plants were assayed for a Mendelian antiherbivore defense that also affects tolerance to abiotic stressors. Urban-rural gradients were associated with the evolution of clines in defense in 47% of cities throughout the world. Variation in the strength of clines was explained by environmental changes in drought stress and vegetation cover that varied among cities. Sequencing 2074 genomes from 26 cities revealed that the evolution of urban-rural clines was best explained by adaptive evolution, but the degree of parallel adaptation varied among cities. Our results demonstrate that urbanization leads to adaptation at a global scale

Developing a reference standard for assessing paediatric triage scales in resource poor settings

One of the main challenges for emergency healthcare services in low to middle income countries (LMICs) is limited capacity to deal with heavy emergency caseloads. The process of triage is one mechanism for mitigating this challenge. Methods: In a two-round consensus building process (the Delphi process), a panel of emergency centre (EC) experts were asked to independently triage 50 clinical vignettes using one of four acuity levels: emergency (patient to be seen immediately), very urgent (patient to be seen within 10 min), urgent (patient to be seen within 60 min), or routine (patient to be seen within four hours). The vignettes were based on real paediatric EC cases in South Africa. Vignettes that reached a minimum of 80% group consensus for acuity ratings on either round one or two were included in the final set of reference vignettes. Results: Of the 50 vignettes presented to 11 EC experts, in the first round, 80% group consensus on acuity ratings was obtained for 10 (20%) of the vignettes. In the second round, 80% consensus was reached for 30 of the 40 remaining vignettes. Thus, overall, 40 (80%) of the vignettes reached a minimum group consensus of 80% (emergency n = 4; very urgent n = 8; urgent n = 12; routine n = 16). Conclusion: This study demonstrates how context-specific reference vignettes can be developed to provide a cheap, effective, and feasible means by which to evaluate paediatric triage systems in LMICs

Picking up the bill - improving health-care utilisation in the Democratic Republic of Congo through user fee subsidisation: a before and after study.

BACKGROUND: User fees have been shown to constitute a major barrier to the utilisation of health-care, particularly in low-income countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Importantly, such barriers can lead to the exclusion of vulnerable individuals from health-care. In 2008, a donor-funded primary health-care programme began implementing user fee subsidisation in 20 health zones of the DRC. In this study, we quantified the short and long-term effects of this policy on health-care utilisation. METHODS: Sixteen health zones were included for analysis. Using routinely collected health-care utilisation data before and after policy implementation, interrupted time series regression was applied to quantify the temporal impact of the user fee policy in the studied health zones. Payment of salary supplements to health-care workers and provision of free drugs - the other components of the programme - were controlled for where possible. RESULTS: Fourteen (88%) health zones showed an immediate positive effect in health-care utilisation rates (overall median increase of 19%, interquartile range 11 to 43) one month after the policy was introduced, and the effect was significant in seven zones (P <0.05). This initial effect was sustained or increased at 24 months in five health zones but was only significant in one health zone at P <0.05. Utilisation reduced over time in the remaining health zones (overall median increase of 4%, interquartile range -10 to 33). The modelled mean health-care utilisation rate initially increased significantly from 43 consultations/1000 population to 51 consultations/1000 population during the first month following implementation (P <0.01). However, the on-going effect was not significant (P =0.69). CONCLUSIONS: Our research brings mixed findings on the effectiveness of user fee subsidisation as a strategy to increase the utilisation of services. Future work should focus on feasibility issues associated with the removal or reduction of user fees and how to sustain its effects on utilisation in the longer term