Making space for proactive adaptation of rapidly changing coasts: a windows of opportunity approach

Coastlines are very often places where the impacts of global change are felt most keenly, and they are also often sites of high values and intense use for industry, human habitation, nature conservation and recreation. In many countries, coastlines are a key contested territory for planning for climate change, and also locations where development and conservation conflicts play out. As a “test bed” for climate change adaptation, coastal regions provide valuable, but highly diverse experiences and lessons. This paper sets out to explore the lessons of coastal planning and development for the implementation of proactive adaptation, and the possibility to move from adaptation visions to actual adaptation governance and planning. Using qualitative analysis of interviews and workshops, we first examine what the barriers are to proactive adaptation at the coast, and how current policy and practice frames are leading to avoidable lock-ins and other maladaptive decisions that are narrowing our adaptation options. Using examples from UK, we then identify adaptation windows that can be opened, reframed or transformed to set the course for proactive adaptation which links high level top-down legislative requirements with local bottom-up actions. We explore how these windows can be harnessed so that space for proactive adaptation increases and maladaptive decisions are reduced

A multiscale analysis of social-ecological system robustness and vulnerability in Cornwall, UK

Understanding social-ecological system (SES) feedbacks and interactions is crucial to improving societal resilience to growing environmental challenges. Social-ecological systems are usually researched at one of two spatial scales: local placed-based empirical studies or system-scale modelling, with limited efforts to date exploring the merits of combining these two analytical approaches and scales. Here, we take a multiscale interdisciplinary approach to elucidate the social dynamics underpinning cross-sectoral feedbacks and unintended consequences of decision-making that can affect social-ecological system vulnerability unexpectedly. We combined empirical place-based research with the Robustness Framework, a dynamic system level analysis platform, to analyse the characteristics and robustness of a coastal SES in Cornwall, UK. Embedding place-based empirical analysis into a broader institutional framework revealed SES feedbacks and “maladaptations”. We find that decentralisation efforts coupled with government austerity measures amplify second-order (reputational) risks. This prompted temporal policy trade-offs, which increased individual and community vulnerability and reduced social-ecological system robustness, impeding local adaptation to climate change. We identify opportunities to ameliorate these maladaptations by (1) implementing coordination rules that can guide policymakers in instances of conflicting coastal management pressures, and (2) recognising how second-order risks influence decision-making. This work demonstrates the strengths of combining local and regional analyses to assess the robustness of social-ecological systems exposed to environmental changes, such as climate change and sea level rise. Our results show how analysis of the multiscale effects of climate policies, decision-making processes and second-order risks can usefully support local climate change adaptation planning

High resolution genomic analysis of sporadic breast cancer using array-based comparative genomic hybridization

INTRODUCTION: Genomic aberrations in the form of subchromosomal DNA copy number changes are a hallmark of epithelial cancers, including breast cancer. The goal of the present study was to analyze such aberrations in breast cancer at high resolution. METHODS: We employed high-resolution array comparative genomic hybridization with 4,134 bacterial artificial chromosomes that cover the genome at 0.9 megabase resolution to analyze 47 primary breast tumors and 18 breast cancer cell lines. RESULTS: Common amplicons included 8q24.3 (amplified in 79% of tumors, with 5/47 exhibiting high level amplification), 1q32.1 and 16p13.3 (amplified in 66% and 57% of tumors, respectively). Moreover, we found several positive correlations between specific amplicons from different chromosomes, suggesting the existence of cooperating genetic loci. Queried by gene, the most frequently amplified kinase was PTK2 (79% of tumors), whereas the most frequently lost kinase was PTK2B (hemizygous loss in 34% of tumors). Amplification of ERBB2 as measured by comparative genomic hybridization (CGH) correlated closely with ERBB2 DNA and RNA levels measured by quantitative PCR as well as with ERBB2 protein levels. The overall frequency of recurrent losses was lower, with no region lost in more than 50% of tumors; the most frequently lost tumor suppressor gene was RB1 (hemizygous loss in 26% of tumors). Finally, we find that specific copy number changes in cell lines closely mimicked those in primary tumors, with an overall Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.843 for gains and 0.734 for losses. CONCLUSION: High resolution CGH analysis of breast cancer reveals several regions where DNA copy number is commonly gained or lost, that non-random correlations between specific amplicons exist, and that specific genetic alterations are maintained in breast cancer cell lines despite repeat passage in tissue culture. These observations suggest that genes within these regions are critical to the malignant phenotype and may thus serve as future therapeutic targets

Shaping landscapes and industry: linking historic watermill locations to bedrock river knickpoints

Watermills have been an essential source of mechanical power for over two millennia. Their careful siting often took into account local hydrology, topography, and economic demand, attesting to the important place they held in premodern and early modern societies. This paper highlights the significance of Paul Bishop's work on mills over the last 20 years, which revealed that numerous historical watermills along Scottish rivers were closely located near overly steep stretches of river to maximize waterpower and minimize cost. Termed ‘knickpoints’, many of these steep erosional features formed thousands of years ago during and after melting of the British–Irish Ice Sheet. Post-glacial isostatic rebound caused rivers to erode into bedrock at rates set by river catchment size and sediment availability. Although bedrock knickpoints along the Scottish coast are relatively stable over human timescales (<103 years), knickpoints generated by milling in England have been invoked as potential hazards due to their potential to migrate over similar timescales. Bishop's observations on the colocation of knickpoints and watermills encouraged a more comprehensive investigation of the relationship between natural and human systems over the last 250 years and invited re-evaluation of prevailing narratives for the history of water technology and patterns of water-powered industrialization in Britain

Submillimetre line spectrum of the Seyfert galaxy NGC1068 from the Herschel-SPIRE Fourier Transform Spectrometer

The first complete submillimetre spectrum (190-670um) of the Seyfert 2 galaxy NGC1068 has been observed with the SPIRE Fourier Transform Spectrometer onboard the {\it Herschel} Space Observatory. The sequence of CO lines (Jup=4-13), lines from water, the fundamental rotational transition of HF, two o-H_2O+ lines and one line each from CH+ and OH+ have been detected, together with the two [CI] lines and the [NII]205um line. The observations in both single pointing mode with sparse image sampling and in mapping mode with full image sampling allow us to disentangle two molecular emission components, one due to the compact circum-nuclear disk (CND) and one from the extended region encompassing the star forming ring (SF-ring). Radiative transfer models show that the two CO components are characterized by density of n(H_2)=10^4.5 and 10^2.9 cm^-3 and temperature of T=100K and 127K, respectively. The comparison of the CO line intensities with photodissociation region (PDR) and X-ray dominated region (XDR) models, together with other observational constraints, such as the observed CO surface brightness and the radiation field, indicate that the best explanation for the CO excitation of the CND is an XDR with density of n(H_2) 10^4 cm^-3 and X-ray flux of 9 erg s^-1 cm^-2, consistent with illumination by the active galactic nucleus, while the CO lines in the SF-ring are better modeled by a PDR. The detected water transitions, together with those observed with the \her \sim PACS Spectrometer, can be modeled by an LVG model with low temperature (T_kin \sim 40K) and high density (n(H_2) in the range 10^6.7-10^7.9 cm^-3).Comment: Accepted for publication on the Astrophysical Journal, 30 August 201

Effects of antiplatelet therapy on stroke risk by brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases: subgroup analyses of the RESTART randomised, open-label trial

Background Findings from the RESTART trial suggest that starting antiplatelet therapy might reduce the risk of recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage compared with avoiding antiplatelet therapy. Brain imaging features of intracerebral haemorrhage and cerebral small vessel diseases (such as cerebral microbleeds) are associated with greater risks of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage. We did subgroup analyses of the RESTART trial to explore whether these brain imaging features modify the effects of antiplatelet therapy

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

Background: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. Methods: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). Findings: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29–146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0– 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25–1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39–1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65–1·60]; p=0·92). Interpretation: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

Background: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. Methods: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). Findings: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29–146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0– 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25–1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39–1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65–1·60]; p=0·92). Interpretation: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention

Effects of antiplatelet therapy after stroke due to intracerebral haemorrhage (RESTART): a randomised, open-label trial

BACKGROUND: Antiplatelet therapy reduces the risk of major vascular events for people with occlusive vascular disease, although it might increase the risk of intracranial haemorrhage. Patients surviving the commonest subtype of intracranial haemorrhage, intracerebral haemorrhage, are at risk of both haemorrhagic and occlusive vascular events, but whether antiplatelet therapy can be used safely is unclear. We aimed to estimate the relative and absolute effects of antiplatelet therapy on recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage and whether this risk might exceed any reduction of occlusive vascular events. METHODS: The REstart or STop Antithrombotics Randomised Trial (RESTART) was a prospective, randomised, open-label, blinded endpoint, parallel-group trial at 122 hospitals in the UK. We recruited adults (≥18 years) who were taking antithrombotic (antiplatelet or anticoagulant) therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage, discontinued antithrombotic therapy, and survived for 24 h. Computerised randomisation incorporating minimisation allocated participants (1:1) to start or avoid antiplatelet therapy. We followed participants for the primary outcome (recurrent symptomatic intracerebral haemorrhage) for up to 5 years. We analysed data from all randomised participants using Cox proportional hazards regression, adjusted for minimisation covariates. This trial is registered with ISRCTN (number ISRCTN71907627). FINDINGS: Between May 22, 2013, and May 31, 2018, 537 participants were recruited a median of 76 days (IQR 29-146) after intracerebral haemorrhage onset: 268 were assigned to start and 269 (one withdrew) to avoid antiplatelet therapy. Participants were followed for a median of 2·0 years (IQR [1·0- 3·0]; completeness 99·3%). 12 (4%) of 268 participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had recurrence of intracerebral haemorrhage compared with 23 (9%) of 268 participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (adjusted hazard ratio 0·51 [95% CI 0·25-1·03]; p=0·060). 18 (7%) participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy experienced major haemorrhagic events compared with 25 (9%) participants allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (0·71 [0·39-1·30]; p=0·27), and 39 [15%] participants allocated to antiplatelet therapy had major occlusive vascular events compared with 38 [14%] allocated to avoid antiplatelet therapy (1·02 [0·65-1·60]; p=0·92). INTERPRETATION: These results exclude all but a very modest increase in the risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage with antiplatelet therapy for patients on antithrombotic therapy for the prevention of occlusive vascular disease when they developed intracerebral haemorrhage. The risk of recurrent intracerebral haemorrhage is probably too small to exceed the established benefits of antiplatelet therapy for secondary prevention. FUNDING: British Heart Foundation

Development of a pollution prevention methodology for the metalcasting industry

The metalcasting industry consists of small businesses that cast a wide variety of metals and use many different casting processes. The metalcasting industry is a large recycler of metal, however, metalcasting is energy intensive and produces significant air, land and water emissions. The industry is vulnerable to the cost of conforming to increasingly stringent environmental regulations. Improving environmental performance while keeping regulatory costs to a minimum is one of the key challenges of the industry. An adaptable methodology is required that is usable by small manufacturing units in order to comply with environmental regulation in a cost-effective manner. The processes used in the metalcasting industry were investigated. The available energy, waste, materials consumption data and the industry environmental effects were reviewed and evaluated. The methodologies used to reduce pollution to a minimum in other industries were evaluated for: applicability to environmental issues, suitability to both high production and jobbing shops, applicability to different casting methods, ease of use by foundry and environmental personnel, data availability. The methods assessed included: preliminary assessment methods, process flowsheets, mass and energy balances, manufacturing process understanding, process integration, pinch methods, exergy analyses, life-cycle assessment and total cost assessment. The developed methodology is presented in the form of a flowchart that combines an ordered sequence, with appropriate feedback loops, of the selected methods. The developed methodology was successfully tested at a working non-ferrous metalcasting facility. Fluoride chemicals, added to sand moulds and cores to prevent casting defects, were creating large quantities of hazardous solid waste and air emissions from the sand system. The application of the methodology resulted in the identification of a modified process that added the fluoride chemical in a surface coating only, thus reducing emissions by 99%. This methodology can be used to reduce waste, material and resource use in the metalcasting industry.Ph