Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 278:Price transmission and effects of exchange rates on domestic commodity prices via offshore and currency hedging

The framework presents how trading in the foreign commodity futures market and the forward exchange market can affect the optimal spot positions of domestic commodity producers and traders. It generalizes the models of Kawai and Zilcha (1986) and Kofman and Viaene (1991) to allow both intermediate and final commodities to be traded in the international and futures markets, and the exporters/importers to face production shock, domestic factor costs and a random price. Applying mean-variance expected utility, we find that a rise in the expected exchange rate can raise both supply and demand for commodities and reduce domestic prices if the exchange rate elasticity of supply is greater than that of demand. Whether higher volatilities of exchange rate and foreign futures price can reduce the optimal spot position of domestic traders depends on the correlation between the exchange rate and the foreign futures price. Even though the forward exchange market is unbiased, and there is no correlation between commodity prices and exchange rates, the exchange rate can still affect domestic trading and prices through offshore hedging and international trade if the traders are interested in their profit in domestic currency. It illustrates how the world prices and foreign futures prices of commodities and their volatility can be transmitted to the domestic market as well as the dynamic relationship between intermediate and final goods prices. The equilibrium prices depends on trader behaviour i.e. who trades or does not trade in the foreign commodity futures and domestic forward currency markets. The empirical result applying a two-stage-least-squares approach to Thai rice and rubber prices supports the theoretical result

Islamic Calendar Anomalies: Pakistani Practitioners' Perspective

Studies on Islamic calendar anomalies in financial markets tend to apply quantitative analysis to historic share prices. Surprisingly, there is a lack of research investigating whether the participants of such markets are aware of these anomalies and whether these anomalies affect their investment practice. Or is it a case that these practitioners are completely unaware of the anomalies present in these markets and are missing out on profitable opportunities? The purpose of this paper is to analyse the views of influential participants within the Pakistani stock market

Comparing SRI funds to conventional funds using a PCA methodology

In this paper, we investigate characteristic differences between Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) funds and conventional funds across 35 different categories, including previously unexplored areas, such as fund manager skills and investment strategies. Further, we examine SRI and conventional funds globally rather than from just one country (e.g., US) or one region (e.g., Europe), covering funds listed in 22 different countries. We also adopt a new Principal Component Analysis (PCA) methodology for matching SRI funds against their conventional counterparts that significantly increases the sample size from previous studies, reducing selection bias and possibly explaining contradictory findings in the prior literature. Contributing to the literature, our findings show that: (i) SRI funds have more diversified portfolios than conventional funds; (ii) SRI funds have lower cash holdings while investing more in US equities; and (iii) SRI fund managers charge a smaller fee and are more successful in managing their portfolios. This is reassuring for investors who invest in SRI funds and for the future health and sustainability of the planet

The relationship between South Asian stock returns and macroeconomic variables

This article investigates whether economic variables have explanatory power for share returns in South Asian stock markets. In particular, using data for four South Asian emerging stock markets over the period 1998 – 2012, the article examines the influence of a selection of local, regional and global economic variables in explaining equity returns; most previous studies that have examined this issue have tended to focus on only local and/or global factors. Important factors are identified by distilling the macroeconomic variables into principal components. Economic activities, real interest rates, real exchange rates and the trade balance represent local factors. Regional factors are represented by inter-regional trade and regional economic activity while global factors are represented by world financial asset returns and world economic activity. The Vector Autoregression results suggest that the South Asian markets examined are not efficient. Both local and regional factors can directly and indirectly explain Bangladeshi, Pakistani and Sri Lankan stock returns while the lagged returns of the Pakistani stock market and world economic activity can explain Indian stock returns

Taking advantage of Ramadan and January in Muslim countries

Studies have shown that religious beliefs and practice play an important role in influencing share price behaviour. Evidence of a Ramadan effect has been documented in Muslim countries suggesting an increase in mean returns as well as a reduction in volatility during the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. In addition to the Ramadan effect, studies have also documented a January effect in Muslim countries. The current study investigates what happens when the Ramadan effect and the January effect occur at the same time. Controlling for the effects of financial crises and time-varying volatility in returns, the results for individual company data from four countries with sizeable Muslim populations indicate higher returns and lower volatility when these two effects overlap, except in one, arguably more Western country, Turkey

East meets west: when the Islamic and Gregorian calendars coincide

Recent research has documented that at the time of religious celebrations in Muslim countries, such as Ramadan, there is a “festival” effect in share returns. In the Gregorian calendar, December is also a time of celebration and festivities which may be associated with patterns in the behaviour of security prices. Further, the first month of the year in the Islamic calendar, Muharram, is a time of sadness and mourning for some believers, and there may be an effect when the Islamic first month of the year overlaps with the first month of the Gregorian year - January. Over a 33-year cycle, each Islamic month falls in a Gregorian month for about 5–6 consecutive years; when this happens, an Islamic (Eastern) calendar effect may interact with a Gregorian (Western) calendar effect. The current paper addresses this issue by examining the behaviour of share returns and volatility for individual companies listed in Muslim countries’ stock exchanges when the two calendars coincide for: (i) religious festival effects; (ii) first-month-of-the-year effects; and (iii) the two most common effects reported in the Islamic and Gregorian calendars (Ramadan and January). The results show that the Western and Eastern effects interact more prominently in larger companies and in larger or more developed markets

Should exports be diversified or integrated? Evidence from Asian countries' experience

The global credit crunch was believed to have no direct effect on the Asian financial sector except for Hong Kong SAR, Japan, and Singapore where financial sectors are highly linked to the United States and the United Kingdom. However, indirect effects may work through a decline in the Asian export incomes. Export rebalancing policy was proposed to offset the external risk. Whether export diversification succeeded in mitigating effects of the global economic crash on the Asian economies has not yet been evaluated. This paper finds that ASEAN+3 economic cooperation has also enhanced regional trade in terms of the higher export growth, and higher trade correlations along with capital market development. Nevertheless, there is still little room for an official Regional Free Trade Agreement (if available) to increase regional trade integration. The analyses find that the current global financial crisis's negative impacts obviously spread to and across Asia and the magnitude of its effects is also greater than the magnitude of Asian financial crisis' effect. The most affected Asian country is Taiwan whose export products and destinations are most concentrated while the least affected Asian country is Indonesia whose export products and destinations are relatively less concentrated. Indonesia's export diversification and low trade dependence on the United States and other Asian countries cause the delay of crisis effects and make negative effects of the global financial crisis on its export growth, economic growth and trade balance position relatively smaller. On the other hand, even though China's export products are most diversified, China becomes more vulnerable to external shocks when its exports are more integrated into regional trade. Thus, exports rebalancing policy will be effective if both export products and export destinations are diversified, and exports are not highly integrated into regional trade

The relationships between agricultural spot and futures markets : the case of rice

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