Mathematical models for wildlife disease management

Endemic diseases in wildlife present both intra- and inter-species management problems with risk to conservation of endangered species and spillover of virulent disease to other wildlife, farmed and domestic populations. Mathematical models have been developed to aid understanding of the transmission and persistence of such endemic disease. We review such models with an emphasis on models of tuberculosis. The understanding gained from previous model studies is used to formulate a new mathematical model for the wild boar reservoir of tuberculosis in central Spain where the disease persists at high prevalence and impacts other wild and domestic species. This model is used to investigate the efficacy of hunting and vaccination as management techniques to control tuberculosis in wild boar. Insight from the specific wild boar TB model generates a general result for compensatory population growth following culling of a population harbouring endemic disease. We show that compensatory growth due to a reduction in disease-induced mortality following culling could be a new mechanism for producing the ‘Hydra’ effect. We extend the wild boar TB model to reflect the situation in Asturias where wolf predation may influence the disease dynamics leading to lower prevalence of tuberculosis in wild boar. In conclusion we review how our findings can provide insight for disease management and control, and consider how the model could be extended to investigate emerging diseases for which wild boar may also be a reservoir

Wolves contribute to disease control in a multi-host system

We combine model results with field data for a system of wolves (Canis lupus) that prey on wild boar (Sus scrofa), a wildlife reservoir of tuberculosis, to examine how predation may contribute to disease control in multi-host systems. Results show that predation can lead to a marked reduction in the prevalence of infection without leading to a reduction in host population density since mortality due to predation can be compensated by a reduction in disease induced mortality. A key finding therefore is that a population that harbours a virulent infection can be regulated at a similar density by disease at high prevalence or by predation at low prevalence. Predators may therefore provide a key ecosystem service which should be recognised when considering human-carnivore conflicts and the conservation and re-establishment of carnivore populations

In-situ characterization of the thermal state of resonant optical interferometers via tracking of their higher-order mode resonances

Thermal lensing in resonant optical interferometers such as those used for gravitational wave detection is a concern due to the negative impact on control signals and instrument sensitivity. In this paper we describe a method for monitoring the thermal state of such interferometers by probing the higher-order spatial mode resonances of the cavities within them. We demonstrate the use of this technique to measure changes in the Advanced LIGO input mode cleaner cavity geometry as a function of input power, and subsequently infer the optical absorption at the mirror surfaces at the level of 1 ppm per mirror. We also demonstrate the generation of a useful error signal for thermal state of the Advanced LIGO power recycling cavity by continuously tracking the first order spatial mode resonance frequency. Such an error signal could be used as an input to thermal compensation systems to maintain the interferometer cavity geometries in the presence of transients in circulating light power levels, thereby maintaining optimal sensitivity and maximizing the duty-cycle of the detectors

Associating Climatic Trends with Stochastic Modelling of Flow Sequences

patterns are highly sensitive to temperature (T) variation and thus also affect natural streamflow processes. This paper presents a novel suite of stochastic modelling approaches for associating streamflow sequences with climatic trends. The present work is built upon a stochastic modelling framework (HMM_GP) that integrates a hidden Markov model (HMM) with a generalised Pareto (GP) distribution for simulating synthetic flow sequences. The GP distribution within the HMM_GP model aims to improve the model’s efficiency in effectively simulating extreme events. This paper further investigated the potential of generalised extreme value distribution (GEV) coupled with an HMM model within a regression-based scheme for associating the impacts of precipitation and evapotranspiration processes on streamflow. The statistical characteristic of the pioneering modelling schematic was thoroughly assessed for its suitability to generate and predict synthetic river flow sequences for a set of future climatic projections, specifically during ENSO events. The new modelling schematic can be adapted for a range of applications in hydrology, agriculture, and climate change

The advanced LIGO input optics

The advanced LIGO gravitational wave detectors are nearing their design sensitivity and should begin taking meaningful astrophysical data in the fall of 2015. These resonant optical interferometers will have unprecedented sensitivity to the strains caused by passing gravitational waves. The input optics play a significant part in allowing these devices to reach such sensitivities. Residing between the pre-stabilized laser and the main interferometer, the input optics subsystem is tasked with preparing the laser beam for interferometry at the sub-attometer level while operating at continuous wave input power levels ranging from 100 mW to 150 W. These extreme operating conditions required every major component to be custom designed. These designs draw heavily on the experience and understanding gained during the operation of Initial LIGO and Enhanced LIGO. In this article, we report on how the components of the input optics were designed to meet their stringent requirements and present measurements showing how well they have lived up to their design

The Advanced LIGO Input Optics

The advanced LIGO gravitational wave detectors are nearing their design sensitivity and should begin taking meaningful astrophysical data in the fall of 2015. These resonant optical interferometers will have unprecedented sensitivity to the strains caused by passing gravitational waves. The input optics play a significant part in allowing these devices to reach such sensitivities. Residing between the pre-stabilized laser and the main interferometer, the input optics subsystem is tasked with preparing the laser beam for interferometry at the sub-attometer level while operating at continuous wave input power levels ranging from 100 mW to 150 W. These extreme operating conditions required every major component to be custom designed. These designs draw heavily on the experience and understanding gained during the operation of Initial LIGO and Enhanced LIGO. In this article, we report on how the components of the input optics were designed to meet their stringent requirements and present measurements showing how well they have lived up to their design

Atlantic Ocean Observing Networks: Cost and feasibility study

Results of a cost and feasibility study of the present and planned integrated Atlantic Ocean Observing System, including assessing the readiness and feasibility of implementation of different observing technologie

Transcriptomes of <i>Trypanosoma brucei</i> rhodesiense from sleeping sickness patients, rodents and culture:Effects of strain, growth conditions and RNA preparation methods

All of our current knowledge of African trypanosome metabolism is based on results from trypanosomes grown in culture or in rodents. Drugs against sleeping sickness must however treat trypanosomes in humans. We here compare the transcriptomes of Trypanosoma brucei rhodesiense from the blood and cerebrospinal fluid of human patients with those of trypanosomes from culture and rodents. The data were aligned and analysed using new user-friendly applications designed for Kinetoplastid RNA-Seq data. The transcriptomes of trypanosomes from human blood and cerebrospinal fluid did not predict major metabolic differences that might affect drug susceptibility. Usefully, there were relatively few differences between the transcriptomes of trypanosomes from patients and those of similar trypanosomes grown in rats. Transcriptomes of monomorphic laboratory-adapted parasites grown in in vitro culture closely resembled those of the human parasites, but some differences were seen. In poly(A)-selected mRNA transcriptomes, mRNAs encoding some protein kinases and RNA-binding proteins were under-represented relative to mRNA that had not been poly(A) selected; further investigation revealed that the selection tends to result in loss of longer mRNAs

The Effects of Mary Rose Conservation Treatment on Iron Oxidation Processes and Microbial Communities Contributing to Acid Production in Marine Archaeological Timbers

The Tudor warship the Mary Rose has reached an important transition point in her conservation. The 19 year long process of spraying with polyethylene glycol (PEG) has been completed (April 29th 2013) and the hull is air drying under tightly controlled conditions. Acidophilic bacteria capable of oxidising iron and sulfur have been previously identified and enriched from unpreserved timbers of the Mary Rose, demonstrating that biological pathways of iron and sulfur oxidization existed potentially in this wood, before preservation with PEG. This study was designed to establish if the recycled PEG spray system was a reservoir of microorganisms capable of iron and sulfur oxidization during preservation of the Mary Rose. Microbial enrichments derived from PEG impregnated biofilm collected from underneath the Mary Rose hull, were examined to better understand the processes of cycling of iron. X-ray absorption spectroscopy was utilised to demonstrate the biological contribution to production of sulfuric acid in the wood. Using molecular microbiological techniques to examine these enrichment cultures, PEG was found to mediate a shift in the microbial community from a co-culture of Stenotrophomonas and Brevunidimonas sp, to a co-culture of Stenotrophomonas and the iron oxidising Alicyclobacillus sp. Evidence is presented that PEG is not an inert substance in relation to the redox cycling of iron. This is the first demonstration that solutions of PEG used in the conservation of the Mary Rose are promoting the oxidation of ferrous iron in acidic solutions, in which spontaneous abiotic oxidation does not occur in water. Critically, these results suggest PEG mediated redox cycling of iron between valence states in solutions of 75% PEG 200 and 50% PEG 2000 (v/v) at pH 3.0, with serious implications for the future use of PEG as a conservation material of iron rich wooden archaeological artefacts