Numerical Groundwater Flow Modeling of Dijil River Catchment, Debre Markos Area, Ethiopia

Dijil River catchment is a sub-catchment of the Abay drainage basin and covers 138.28 km2. This paper presents numerical groundwater flow modeling at steady-state conditions, in a single-layer aquifer system under different stress or scenarios. A numerical groundwater flow models represent the simplification of complex natural systems, different parameters were assembled into a conceptual model to represent the complex natural system in a simplified form. The conceptual model was input into the numeric model to examine the system response. Based on geologic and hydrogeological information, confined subsurface flow condition was considered and simulated using MODFLOW 2000. The model calibration accounts matching of 24 observation points with the simulated head with a permissible residual head of ±10m. The sensitivity of the major parameters of the model was identified during the calibration process. According to the simulated water budget in the model, the simulated inflow is found to be 1.2791870E+05 m3/day which is nearly equal to the simulated outflow of 1.2791755E+05 m3/day with the difference being only 1.1484375E+00 m3/day. Water budget analysis reveals that outflow from river leakage accounts for 92.8 % of the total outflow and 14.1 % of the total inflow comes from the river leakage in the study area. Three scenarios of increased withdrawals and one scenario of altered recharge were used to study the system response. Accordingly, an increase in well withdrawal in scenario-I (existing wells pump simultaneously), scenario-II (existing drilled wells yield withdrawal increased by 30%), and scenario-III (additional eight wells having expected yield of 30 l/s drill and pump) resulted in an average decline of the steady-state water level by 1.06m, 1.68m, and 4.46m, respectively. They also caused the steady-state stream leakage to be reduced by about 2.93%, 4.58%, and 11.23%, and subsurface outflow by 9.41%, 14.67%, and 37.86%, respectively. A decrease in recharge by 25% and 50% results in a decrease of the head by 6.1m and 13.4m respectively, and a stream leakage decrease by 20.3%, and 40.3% respectively as compared to the simulated steady-state value. Therefore, adequate groundwater level monitoring wells should be placed in the catchment to control the total abstraction rates from the aquifer and fluctuations in groundwater levels

Exploring providers’ perspectives of a community based TB approach in Southern Ethiopia: implication for community based approaches

Abstract Background There is increasing interest in the role of close-to-community providers in supporting universal health coverage, but questions remain about the best approaches to supporting and motivating these providers, and the optimal package they can deliver indifferent contexts and support required. We report on the experiences of different health providers involved in a community based intervention to support access to tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment in Southern Ethiopia. Methods The aim of the study is to explore the experiences of health providers in delivering a community-based tuberculosis package in southern Ethiopia and to draw lessons for community-based programmes. A qualitative methodology was used. Methods included in-depth interviews (IDIs, n= 37) with all health provider groups: Community health promoters (CHPs), health extension workers (HEWs), district supervisors and laboratory technicians were undertaken to obtain a detailed understanding of the experiences of providers in the community based tuberculosis package. These were complemented with cadre specific focus group discussions (n= 3). We used the framework approach for qualitative analysis. Results The key theme that emerged was the positive impact the community-based intervention had on vulnerable groups’ access to diagnosis, care and treatment for tuberculosis. Providers found the positive feedback from, and visible impact on, communities very motivating. Other themes related to motivation and performance included supervision and support; learning new skills; team problem solving/ addressing challenges and incentives. Against the backdrop of the Ethiopian Health Extension Programme (HEP), HEWs were successfully able to take on new tasks (collecting sputum and preparing smears) with additional training and appropriate support from supervisors, laboratory technicians and CHPs. Conclusion All categories of providers were motivated by the high visible impact of the community-based intervention on poor and vulnerable communities and households. HEWs role in the community-based intervention was supported and facilitated through the structures and processes established within the community-based intervention and the broader nation-wide Health Extension Programme. Within community based approaches there is need to develop context embedded strategies to support, sustain and motivate this critical cadre who play a pivotal role in linking health systems and rural communities

Patient and community experiences of tuberculosis diagnosis and care within a community-based intervention in Ethiopia: a qualitative study

Background The Ethiopian TB control programme relies on passive case finding of TB cases. The predominantly rural-based population in Ethiopia has limited access to health facilities creating barriers to TB services. An intervention package aimed to bring TB diagnosis and treatment services closer to communities has been implemented through partnership with health extension workers (HEWs). They undertook advocacy, communication and social mobilization (ACSM) activities, identified symptomatic individuals, collected sputum, prepared smears and fixed slides at community level. Field supervisors supported HEWs by delivering smeared slides to the laboratory, feeding back results to the HEWs and following up smear-negative cases. Patients diagnosed with TB initiated treatment in the community, they were supported by supervisors and HEWs through the local health post. Case notification increased from 64 to 127/100,000 population/year. Methods This qualitative study assessed community members’ treatment seeking behaviour and their perceptions of the intervention. In-depth interviews (n=36) were undertaken with participants in six districts. Participants were clients of the community-based intervention, currently on TB treatment or those screened negative for TB. Transcripts were translated to English and a thematic analytical framework was developed guided by the different steps symptomatic individuals take within the intervention package. Coding was done and queries run using NVivo software. Results Prior to the intervention many patients with chronic cough did not access TB services. Participants described difficulties they faced in accessing district level health facilities that required travel outside their communities. Giving sputum samples and receiving results from within their home communities was appreciated by all participants. The intervention had a high level of acceptability; particularly clear benefits emerged for poor women and men and those too weak to travel. Some participants appeared to prefer a diagnosis of TB, this is likely because receiving a negative smear microscopy result brought further uncertainty and necessitated seeking further investigation. Conclusions There is evidence rural populations with high levels of poverty, and in particular women, are at high risk of unmet health needs and undiagnosed TB. Embedding TB services within communities was an acceptable approach for vulnerable groups experiencing poor access to health facilities. In the Ethiopian context this approach can facilitate early diagnosis and improve treatment outcomes

Predictors of postoperative delirium in paediatric patients undergoing surgery under general anaesthesia at Amhara Regional State Tertiary Hospitals: a multicenter prospective study

IntroductionPostoperative delirium in paediatric patients is a recognised issue. Nevertheless, in low- and middle-income nations, researchers have had luck in determining its extent and predictors. Identifying predictors of postoperative delirium in paediatric patients having general anaesthesia at Tertiary Hospitals in Ethiopia was the aim of this study.MethodsA multicenter, prospective follow up study was conducted from April 15 to June 15, 2023 at the study settings. During the study period a total of 424 paediatric surgical patients treated under general anaesthesia in all study locations, ranging in age from birth to sixteen were candidates for this study. Charts and direct observation of patient's with assessment tool [Cornell Assessment of Pediatric Delirium (CAPD)] were used from each available patient. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to determine predictors of postoperative delirium in paediatric patients undergoing surgery under general anaesthesia.ResultsPostoperative delirium occurred in 160 of the 404 paediatric patients who underwent surgery under general anaesthesia. Ophthalmic surgery, corticosteroid use, anticholinergic use, severe postoperative pain, and preoperative anxiety were found to be predictors of postoperative delirium; whereas, sedative medication premedication and paracetamol used for analgesia were found to be protective against postoperative delirium.Inference and recommendationThe postoperative delirium in paediatric patients undergoing surgery under general anaesthesia was higher compared to developed countries. Ophthalmic surgery, corticosteroids, anticholinergic medications, postoperative pain, and preoperative anxiety were found to be predictors. The impact of postoperative delirium might be lessened by concentrating on its screening and factor control

Neglected burden of injuries in Ethiopia, from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis of the global burden of diseases study 2019

BackgroundThe 2030 agenda for sustainable development goals has given injury prevention new attention, including halving road traffic injuries. This study compiled the best available evidence on injury from the global burden of diseases study for Ethiopia from 1990 to 2019.MethodsInjury data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years lost, years lived with disability, and years of life lost were extracted from the 2019 global burden of diseases study for regions and chartered cities in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2019. Rates were estimated per 100,000 population.ResultsIn 2019, the age-standardized rate of incidence was 7,118 (95% UI: 6,621–7,678), prevalence was 21,735 (95% UI: 19,251–26,302), death was 72 (95% UI: 61–83), disability-adjusted life years lost was 3,265 (95% UI: 2,826–3,783), years of live lost was 2,417 (95% UI: 2,043–2,860), and years lived with disability was 848 [95% UI: (620–1,153)]. Since 1990, there has been a reduction in the age-standardized rate of incidence by 76% (95% UI: 74–78), death by 70% (95% UI: 65–75), and prevalence by 13% (95% UI: 3–18), with noticeable inter-regional variations. Transport injuries, conflict and terrorism, interpersonal violence, self-harm, falls, poisoning, and exposure to mechanical forces were the leading causes of injury-related deaths and long-term disabilities. Since 1990, there has been a decline in the prevalence of transport injuries by 32% (95% UI: 31–33), exposure to mechanical forces by 12% (95% UI: 10–14), and interpersonal violence by 7.4% (95% UI: 5–10). However, there was an increment in falls by 8.4% (95% UI: 7–11) and conflict and terrorism by 1.5% (95% UI: 38–27).ConclusionEven though the burden of injuries has steadily decreased at national and sub-national levels in Ethiopia over the past 30 years, it still remains to be an area of public health priority. Therefore, injury prevention and control strategies should consider regional disparities in the burden of injuries, promoting transportation safety, developing democratic culture and negotiation skills to solve disputes, using early security-interventions when conflict arises, ensuring workplace safety and improving psychological wellbeing of citizens

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa:A scoping review of preparedness, impact and response

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed health systems in both developed and developing nations alike. Africa has one of the weakest health systems globally, but there is limited evidence on how the region is prepared for, impacted by and responded to the pandemic. METHODS: We conducted a scoping review of PubMed, Scopus, CINAHL to search peer-reviewed articles and Google, Google Scholar and preprint sites for grey literature. The scoping review captured studies on either preparedness or impacts or responses associated with COVID-19 or covering one or more of the three topics and guided by Arksey and O’Malley’s methodological framework. The extracted information was documented following the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension checklist for scoping reviews. Finally, the resulting data were thematically analysed. RESULTS: Twenty-two eligible studies, of which 6 reported on health system preparedness, 19 described the impacts of COVID-19 on access to general and essential health services and 7 focused on responses taken by the healthcare systems were included. The main setbacks in health system preparation included lack of available health services needed for the pandemic, inadequate resources and equipment, and limited testing ability and surge capacity for COVID-19. Reduced flow of patients and missing scheduled appointments were among the most common impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Health system responses identified in this review included the availability of telephone consultations, re-purposing of available services and establishment of isolation centres, and provisions of COVID-19 guidelines in some settings. CONCLUSIONS: The health systems in Africa were inadequately prepared for the pandemic, and its impact was substantial. Responses were slow and did not match the magnitude of the problem. Interventions that will improve and strengthen health system resilience and financing through local, national and global engagement should be prioritised

The COVID-19 pandemic and healthcare systems in Africa : a scoping review of preparedness, impact and response

Funding Information: Funding GAT was supported with funding from the Australia National Health and Medical Research Council (NHMRC) Investigator Grant #1195716.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Global, regional, and national burden of tuberculosis, 1990–2016: results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2016 Study

Background Although a preventable and treatable disease, tuberculosis causes more than a million deaths each year. As countries work towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030, robust assessments of the levels and trends of the burden of tuberculosis are crucial to inform policy and programme decision making. We assessed the levels and trends in the fatal and non-fatal burden of tuberculosis by drug resistance and HIV status for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. Methods We analysed 15 943 site-years of vital registration data, 1710 site-years of verbal autopsy data, 764 site-years of sample-based vital registration data, and 361 site-years of mortality surveillance data to estimate mortality due to tuberculosis using the Cause of Death Ensemble model. We analysed all available data sources, including annual case notifications, prevalence surveys, population-based tuberculin surveys, and estimated tuberculosis cause-specific mortality to generate internally consistent estimates of incidence, prevalence, and mortality using DisMod-MR 2.1, a Bayesian meta-regression tool. We assessed how the burden of tuberculosis differed from the burden predicted by the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, average years of schooling, and total fertility rate. Findings Globally in 2016, among HIV-negative individuals, the number of incident cases of tuberculosis was 9·02 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 8·05–10·16) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 1·21 million (1·16–1·27). Among HIV-positive individuals, the number of incident cases was 1·40 million (1·01–1·89) and the number of tuberculosis deaths was 0·24 million (0·16–0·31). Globally, among HIV-negative individuals the age-standardised incidence of tuberculosis decreased annually at a slower rate (–1·3% [–1·5 to −1·2]) than mortality did (–4·5% [–5·0 to −4·1]) from 2006 to 2016. Among HIV-positive individuals during the same period, the rate of change in annualised age-standardised incidence was −4·0% (–4·5 to −3·7) and mortality was −8·9% (–9·5 to −8·4). Several regions had higher rates of age-standardised incidence and mortality than expected on the basis of their SDI levels in 2016. For drug-susceptible tuberculosis, the highest observed-to-expected ratios were in southern sub-Saharan Africa (13·7 for incidence and 14·9 for mortality), and the lowest ratios were in high-income North America (0·4 for incidence) and Oceania (0·3 for mortality). For multidrug-resistant tuberculosis, eastern Europe had the highest observed-to-expected ratios (67·3 for incidence and 73·0 for mortality), and high-income North America had the lowest ratios (0·4 for incidence and 0·5 for mortality). Interpretation If current trends in tuberculosis incidence continue, few countries are likely to meet the SDG target to end the tuberculosis epidemic by 2030. Progress needs to be accelerated by improving the quality of and access to tuberculosis diagnosis and care, by developing new tools, scaling up interventions to prevent risk factors for tuberculosis, and integrating control programmes for tuberculosis and HIV

Maternal mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean region : findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

Assessing the burden of maternal mortality is important for tracking progress and identifying public health gaps. This paper provides an overview of the burden of maternal mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to explore maternal mortality in the EMR countries. The maternal mortality ratio in the EMR decreased 16.3% from 283 (241-328) maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 237 (188-293) in 2015. Maternal mortality ratio was strongly correlated with socio-demographic status, where the lowest-income countries contributed the most to the burden of maternal mortality in the region. Progress in reducing maternal mortality in the EMR has accelerated in the past 15 years, but the burden remains high. Coordinated and rigorous efforts are needed to make sure that adequate and timely services and interventions are available for women at each stage of reproductive life