Long-term climate change commitment and reversibility: an EMIC intercomparison

This paper summarizes the results of an intercomparison project with Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) undertaken in support of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). The focus is on long-term climate projections designed to: (i) quantify the climate change commitment of different radiative forcing trajectories, and (ii) explore the extent to which climate change is reversible on human timescales. All commitment simulations follow the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and their extensions to 2300. Most EMICs simulate substantial surface air temperature and thermosteric sea level rise commitment following stabilization of the atmospheric composition at year-2300 levels. The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) is weakened temporarily and recovers to near pre-industrial values in most models for RCPs 2.6–6.0. The MOC weakening is more persistent for RCP 8.5. Elimination of anthropogenic CO2 emissions after 2300 results in slowly decreasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. At year 3000 atmospheric CO2 is still at more than half its year-2300 level in all EMICs for RCPs 4.5–8.5. Surface air temperature remains constant or decreases slightly and thermosteric sea level rise continues for centuries after elimination of CO2 emissions in all EMICs. Restoration of atmospheric CO2 from RCP to pre-industrial levels over 100–1000 years requires large artificial removal of CO2 from the atmosphere and does not result in the simultaneous return to pre-industrial climate conditions, as surface air temperature and sea level response exhibit a substantial time lag relative to atmospheric CO2

The Danger of Having All Your Eggs in One Basket—Winter Crash of the Re-Introduced Przewalski's Horses in the Mongolian Gobi

Large mammals re-introduced into harsh and unpredictable environments are vulnerable to stochastic effects, particularly in times of global climate change. The Mongolian Gobi is home to several rare large ungulates such as re-introduced Przewalski's horses (Equus ferus przewalskii) and Asiatic wild asses (Equus hemionus), but also to a millennium-old semi-nomadic livestock herding culture

Trypanosoma cruzi Gene Expression in Response to Gamma Radiation

Trypanosoma cruzi is an organism highly resistant to ionizing radiation. Following a dose of 500 Gy of gamma radiation, the fragmented genomic DNA is gradually reconstructed and the pattern of chromosomal bands is restored in less than 48 hours. Cell growth arrests after irradiation but, while DNA is completely fragmented, RNA maintains its integrity. In this work we compared the transcriptional profiles of irradiated and non-irradiated epimastigotes at different time points after irradiation using microarray. In total, 273 genes were differentially expressed; from these, 160 were up-regulated and 113 down-regulated. We found that genes with predicted functions are the most prevalent in the down-regulated gene category. Translation and protein metabolic processes, as well as generation of precursor of metabolites and energy pathways were affected. In contrast, the up-regulated category was mainly composed of obsolete sequences (which included some genes of the kinetoplast DNA), genes coding for hypothetical proteins, and Retrotransposon Hot Spot genes. Finally, the tyrosyl-DNA phosphodiesterase 1, a gene involved in double-strand DNA break repair process, was up-regulated. Our study demonstrated the peculiar response to ionizing radiation, raising questions about how this organism changes its gene expression to manage such a harmful stress

Regionally aggregated, stitched and de‐drifted CMIP‐climate data, processed with netCDF‐SCM v2.0.0

The world's most complex climate models are currently running a range of experiments as part of the Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Added to the output from the Fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), the total data volume will be in the order of 20PB. Here, we present a dataset of annual, monthly, global, hemispheric and land/ocean means derived from a selection of experiments of key interest to climate data analysts and reduced complexity climate modellers. The derived dataset is a key part of validating, calibrating and developing reduced complexity climate models against the behaviour of more physically complete models. In addition to its use for reduced complexity climate modellers, we aim to make our data accessible to other research communities. We facilitate this in a number of ways. Firstly, given the focus on annual, monthly, global, hemispheric and land/ocean mean quantities, our dataset is orders of magnitude smaller than the source data and hence does not require specialized ‘big data’ expertise. Secondly, again because of its smaller size, we are able to offer our dataset in a text-based format, greatly reducing the computational expertise required to work with CMIP output. Thirdly, we enable data provenance and integrity control by tracking all source metadata and providing tools which check whether a dataset has been retracted, that is identified as erroneous. The resulting dataset is updated as new CMIP6 results become available and we provide a stable access point to allow automated downloads. Along with our accompanying website (cmip6.science.unimelb.edu.au), we believe this dataset provides a unique community resource, as well as allowing non-specialists to access CMIP data in a new, user-friendly way

The role of peptides in bone healing and regeneration: A systematic review

Background: Bone tissue engineering and the research surrounding peptides has expanded significantly over the last few decades. Several peptides have been shown to support and stimulate the bone healing response and have been proposed as therapeutic vehicles for clinical use. The aim of this comprehensive review is to present the clinical and experimental studies analysing the potential role of peptides for bone healing and bone regeneration. Methods: A systematic review according to PRISMA guidelines was conducted. Articles presenting peptides capable of exerting an upregulatory effect on osteoprogenitor cells and bone healing were included in the study. Results: Based on the available literature, a significant amount of experimental in vitro and in vivo evidence exists. Several peptides were found to upregulate the bone healing response in experimental models and could act as potential candidates for future clinical applications. However, from the available peptides that reached the level of clinical trials, the presented results are limited. Conclusion: Further research is desirable to shed more light into the processes governing the osteoprogenitor cellular responses. With further advances in the field of biomimetic materials and scaffolds, new treatment modalities for bone repair will emerge

Herders and hazards: covariate dzud risk and the cost of risk management strategies in a Mongolian subdistrict

Studies of mobile pastoralist livelihoods have shown that a variety of sociotechnical practices have been developed to achieve reliable outputs from livestock in variable arid and semi-arid environments. This paper builds upon the concept of pastoralists as high-reliability seekers rather than risk-averse and makes a case for understanding Mongolian herders as well adapted to livestock production in highly variable climatic conditions within a certain threshold of risk and uncertainty. This system fails, however, during instances of high uncertainty and covariate risk such as in cases of the natural hazard dzud, which requires individual households to make significant cash investments in risk management. It forwards the idea that investing in local government—soum and bag level— administrative capacity and infrastructure is needed to build system resilience to covariate risk. Based on ethnographic research in rural Bayankhongor, this paper interrogates how dzud interfaces with socio-economic factors amongst pastoralists in central west Mongolia

Examination of a climate stabilization pathway via zero-emissions using Earth system models

Long-term climate experiments up to the year 2300 have been conducted using two full-scale complex Earth system models (ESMs), CESM1(BGC) and MIROC-ESM, for a CO _2 emissions reduction pathway, termed Z650, where annual CO _2 emissions peak at 11 PgC in 2020, decline by 50% every 30 years, and reach zero in 2160. The results have been examined by focusing on the approximate linear relationship between the temperature increase and cumulative CO _2 emissions. Although the temperature increase is nearly proportional to the cumulative CO _2 emissions in both models, this relationship does not necessarily provide a robust basis for the restriction of CO _2 emissions because it is substantially modulated by non-CO _2 forcing. CO _2 -induced warming, estimated from the atmospheric CO _2 concentrations in the models, indicates an approximate compensation of nonlinear changes between fast-mode responses to concentration changes at less than 10 years and slow-mode response at more than 100 years due to the thermal inertia of the ocean. In this estimate, CESM1(BGC) closely approximates a linear trend of 1.7 °C per 1000 PgC, whereas MIROC-ESM shows a deviation toward higher temperatures after the emissions peak, from 1.8 °C to 2.4 °C per 1000 PgC over the range of 400–850 PgC cumulative emissions corresponding to years 2000–2050. The evolution of temperature under zero emissions, 2160–2300, shows a slight decrease of about 0.1 °C per century in CESM1(BGC), but remains almost constant in MIROC-ESM. The fast-mode response toward the equilibrium state decreases with a decrease in the airborne fraction owing to continued CO _2 uptake (carbon cycle inertia), whereas the slow-mode response results in more warming owing to continued heat uptake (thermal inertia). Several specific differences are noted between the two models regarding the degree of this compensation and in some key regional aspects associated with sustained warming and long-term climate risks. Overall, elevated temperatures continue for at least a few hundred years under zero emissions