A nested circulation model for the North Aegean Sea

International audienceA multi-nested approach has been employed for numerical simulations in the northern part of the Aegean Sea in the framework of the MFSTEP (Mediterranean Forecast System: Toward Environmental Predictions) project. The high resolution (~1.6 km) hydrodynamic model of the North Aegean Sea (NAS) has been nested within a coarser model of the Eastern Mediterranean (resolution ~3.6 km) which is also nested within a basin scale model for the Mediterranean Sea (resolution of ~7 km). The high resolution of the NAS model allows the representation of topographic details that have never been reproduced in modelling studies of the region. Such details can enhance the simulation of coastal features, but can also influence basin-scale processes, such as the pathways of waters of Black Sea origin inflowing at the Dardanelles Straits and bifurcating through island passages. We employ comparisons of the North Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean models in terms of computed flow fields and distribution of hydrodynamic properties, to evaluate the nesting procedure, the initialization requirements and the ability of a nested model to perform reliable short term simulations that employ high resolution atmospheric forcing, when initialized from a coarser OGCM. We show that the topographic details of the high resolution, nested NAS model affect the distribution of the Dardanelles plume and the evolution of coastal currents, while the imposed high frequency, high resolution atmospheric forcing allows for the formation of an overall energetic flow field after a few days of spin-up period. Increased resolution and smaller coastal depth in the NAS simulations influence the flow through island passages and straits. A longer initialization procedure results in the establishment of stronger currents and better-developed buoyant plumes

Numerical studies on the dynamics of the Northwestern Black Sea shelf

The Northwestern Black Sea shelf dynamics are studied with numerical simulations based on the Princeton Ocean Model. The study focus is on buoyancy and wind driven flows and on the transport and fate of low salinity waters that are introduced through riverine sources (the Danube, Dnestr and Dnepr Rivers), under the seasonal changes in atmospheric forcing. The study is part of the DANUBS project (NUtrient management in the DAnube basin and its impact on the Black Sea). The numerical simulations show that the coastal circulation is greatly influenced by river runoff and especially that of the Danube, which is dominant with monthly averaged values ranging from 5,000 m3 to 10,000 m3. The transport of low-salinity waters associated with the Danube runoff is greatly influenced by wind stress, topographic effects and basin-scale circulation patterns, such as changes in the position of the Rim Current

A nested circulation model for the North Aegean Sea

International audienceA multi-nested approach has been employed for numerical simulations in the northern part of the Aegean Sea in the framework of the MFSTEP (Mediterranean Forecast System: Toward Environmental Predictions) project. The high resolution (~1.6 km) hydrodynamic model of the North Aegean Sea (NAS) has been nested within a coarser model of the Eastern Mediterranean (resolution ~3.6 km) which is also nested within a basin scale model for the Mediterranean Sea (resolution of ~7 km). The high resolution of the NAS model allows the representation of topographic details that have never been reproduced in modelling studies of the region. Such details can enhance the simulation of coastal features, but can also influence basin-scale processes, such as the pathways of waters of Black Sea origin inflowing at the Dardanelles Straits and bifurcating through island passages. We employ comparisons of the North Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean models in terms of computed flow fields and distribution of hydrodynamic properties, to evaluate the nesting procedure, the initialization requirements and the ability of a nested model to perform reliable short term simulations that employ high resolution atmospheric forcing, when initialized from a longer running coarser OGCM. We show that the topographic details of the high resolution, nested NAS model mostly affect the distribution of the Dardanelles plume, while the imposed high frequency, high resolution atmospheric forcing allows for the formation of an overall energetic flow field after a few days of spin-up period. A longer initialization procedure is suggested for the establishment of stronger currents and better developed buoyant plumes

Sensitivity of the N. AEGEAN SEA ecosystem to Black Sea Water inputs

The effect of Black Sea Water (BSW) inputs on the North Aegean Sea productivity and food web dynamics was investigated, by means of sensitivity simulations, investigating the effect of the inflowing BSW, in terms of inorganic nutrients and dissolved organic matter. The model used has been successfully applied in the area in the past and extensively presented. Considering the importance of the microbial loop in the ecosystem functioning, the role of the dissolved organics and in order to achieve a more realistic representation of the Dissolved Organic Matter pool, the bacteria sub-model was appropriately revised. The importance of the microbial loop is highlighted by the carbon fluxes where almost 50% of carbon is channelled within it. The impact of dissolved organic matter (DOM) (in the inflowing to the Aegean Sea, BSW) appears to be stronger than the impact of dissolved inorganic nutrients, showing a more extended effect over the N Aegean. Bacterial production and biomass is more strongly affected in the simulations by modified DOM, unlike phytoplankton biomass and production, which are more dependent on the inflowing nutrients and particularly phosphorus (inorganic and dissolved organic). In the phytoplankton composition, the dinoflagellates appear to be mostly affected, being favoured by higher nutrient availability at the expense of all other groups, particularly picoplankton, indicating a shift to a more classical food chain

A population study of gaseous exoplanets

We present here the analysis of 30 gaseous extrasolar planets, with temperatures between 600 and 2400 K and radii between 0.35 and 1.9 $R_\mathrm{Jup}$. The quality of the HST/WFC3 spatially scanned data combined with our specialized analysis tools allow us to study the largest and most self-consistent sample of exoplanetary transmission spectra to date and examine the collective behavior of warm and hot gaseous planets rather than isolated case-studies. We define a new metric, the Atmospheric Detectability Index (ADI) to evaluate the statistical significance of an atmospheric detection and find statistically significant atmospheres around 16 planets out of the 30 analysed. For most of the Jupiters in our sample, we find the detectability of their atmospheres to be dependent on the planetary radius but not on the planetary mass. This indicates that planetary gravity plays a secondary role in the state of gaseous planetary atmospheres. We detect the presence of water vapour in all of the statistically detectable atmospheres, and we cannot rule out its presence in the atmospheres of the others. In addition, TiO and/or VO signatures are detected with 4$\sigma$ confidence in WASP-76 b, and they are most likely present in WASP-121 b. We find no correlation between expected signal-to-noise and atmospheric detectability for most targets. This has important implications for future large-scale surveys.Comment: 14 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables, published in A

ESA-Ariel Data Challenge NeurIPS 2022: Inferring Physical Properties of Exoplanets From Next-Generation Telescopes

The study of extra-solar planets, or simply, exoplanets, planets outside our own Solar System, is fundamentally a grand quest to understand our place in the Universe. Discoveries in the last two decades have re-defined our understanding of planets, and helped us comprehend the uniqueness of our very own Earth. In recent years the focus has shifted from planet detection to planet characterisation, where key planetary properties are inferred from telescope observations using Monte Carlo-based methods. However, the efficiency of sampling-based methodologies is put under strain by the high-resolution observational data from next generation telescopes, such as the James Webb Space Telescope and the Ariel Space Mission. We are delighted to announce the acceptance of the Ariel ML Data Challenge 2022 as part of the NeurIPS competition track. The goal of this challenge is to identify a reliable and scalable method to perform planetary characterisation. Depending on the chosen track, participants are tasked to provide either quartile estimates or the approximate distribution of key planetary properties. To this end, a synthetic spectroscopic dataset has been generated from the official simulators for the ESA Ariel Space Mission. The aims of the competition are three-fold. 1) To offer a challenging application for comparing and advancing conditional density estimation methods. 2) To provide a valuable contribution towards reliable and efficient analysis of spectroscopic data, enabling astronomers to build a better picture of planetary demographics, and 3) To promote the interaction between ML and exoplanetary science. The competition is open from 15th June and will run until early October, participants of all skill levels are more than welcomed

Exploring the Ability of Hubble Space Telescope WFC3 G141 to Uncover Trends in Populations of Exoplanet Atmospheres through a Homogeneous Transmission Survey of 70 Gaseous Planets

We present analysis of the atmospheres of 70 gaseous extrasolar planets via transit spectroscopy with Hubble’s Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3). For over half of these, we statistically detect spectral modulation that our retrievals attribute to molecular species. Among these, we use Bayesian hierarchical modeling to search for chemical trends with bulk parameters. We use the extracted water abundance to infer the atmospheric metallicity and compare it to the planet’s mass. We also run chemical equilibrium retrievals, fitting for the atmospheric metallicity directly. However, although previous studies have found evidence of a mass–metallicity trend, we find no such relation within our data. For the hotter planets within our sample, we find evidence for thermal dissociation of dihydrogen and water via the H− opacity. We suggest that the general lack of trends seen across this population study could be due to (i) the insufficient spectral coverage offered by the Hubble Space Telescope’s WFC3 G141 band, (ii) the lack of a simple trend across the whole population, (iii) the essentially random nature of the target selection for this study, or (iv) a combination of all the above. We set out how we can learn from this vast data set going forward in an attempt to ensure comparative planetology can be undertaken in the future with facilities such as the JWST, Twinkle, and Ariel. We conclude that a wider simultaneous spectral coverage is required as well as a more structured approach to target selection

Exploring the Ability of HST WFC3 G141 to Uncover Trends in Populations of Exoplanet Atmospheres Through a Homogeneous Transmission Survey of 70 Gaseous Planets

We present the analysis of the atmospheres of 70 gaseous extrasolar planets via transit spectroscopy with Hubble's Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3). For over half of these, we statistically detect spectral modulation which our retrievals attribute to molecular species. Among these, we use Bayesian Hierarchical Modelling to search for chemical trends with bulk parameters. We use the extracted water abundance to infer the atmospheric metallicity and compare it to the planet's mass. We also run chemical equilibrium retrievals, fitting for the atmospheric metallicity directly. However, although previous studies have found evidence of a mass-metallicity trend, we find no such relation within our data. For the hotter planets within our sample, we find evidence for thermal dissociation of dihydrogen and water via the H$^-$ opacity. We suggest that the general lack of trends seen across this population study could be due to i) the insufficient spectral coverage offered by HST WFC3 G141, ii) the lack of a simple trend across the whole population, iii) the essentially random nature of the target selection for this study or iv) a combination of all the above. We set out how we can learn from this vast dataset going forward in an attempt to ensure comparative planetology can be undertaken in the future with facilities such as JWST, Twinkle and Ariel. We conclude that a wider simultaneous spectral coverage is required as well as a more structured approach to target selection.Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ

A chemical survey of exoplanets with ARIEL

Thousands of exoplanets have now been discovered with a huge range of masses, sizes and orbits: from rocky Earth-like planets to large gas giants grazing the surface of their host star. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains largely mysterious: there is no known, discernible pattern linking the presence, size, or orbital parameters of a planet to the nature of its parent star. We have little idea whether the chemistry of a planet is linked to its formation environment, or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution. ARIEL was conceived to observe a large number (~1000) of transiting planets for statistical understanding, including gas giants, Neptunes, super-Earths and Earth-size planets around a range of host star types using transit spectroscopy in the 1.25–7.8 μm spectral range and multiple narrow-band photometry in the optical. ARIEL will focus on warm and hot planets to take advantage of their well-mixed atmospheres which should show minimal condensation and sequestration of high-Z materials compared to their colder Solar System siblings. Said warm and hot atmospheres are expected to be more representative of the planetary bulk composition. Observations of these warm/hot exoplanets, and in particular of their elemental composition (especially C, O, N, S, Si), will allow the understanding of the early stages of planetary and atmospheric formation during the nebular phase and the following few million years. ARIEL will thus provide a representative picture of the chemical nature of the exoplanets and relate this directly to the type and chemical environment of the host star. ARIEL is designed as a dedicated survey mission for combined-light spectroscopy, capable of observing a large and well-defined planet sample within its 4-year mission lifetime. Transit, eclipse and phase-curve spectroscopy methods, whereby the signal from the star and planet are differentiated using knowledge of the planetary ephemerides, allow us to measure atmospheric signals from the planet at levels of 10–100 part per million (ppm) relative to the star and, given the bright nature of targets, also allows more sophisticated techniques, such as eclipse mapping, to give a deeper insight into the nature of the atmosphere. These types of observations require a stable payload and satellite platform with broad, instantaneous wavelength coverage to detect many molecular species, probe the thermal structure, identify clouds and monitor the stellar activity. The wavelength range proposed covers all the expected major atmospheric gases from e.g. H2O, CO2, CH4 NH3, HCN, H2S through to the more exotic metallic compounds, such as TiO, VO, and condensed species. Simulations of ARIEL performance in conducting exoplanet surveys have been performed – using conservative estimates of mission performance and a full model of all significant noise sources in the measurement – using a list of potential ARIEL targets that incorporates the latest available exoplanet statistics. The conclusion at the end of the Phase A study, is that ARIEL – in line with the stated mission objectives – will be able to observe about 1000 exoplanets depending on the details of the adopted survey strategy, thus confirming the feasibility of the main science objectives.Peer reviewedFinal Published versio

Towards an end-to-end analysis and prediction system for weather, climate, and Marine applications in the Red Sea

AbstractThe Red Sea, home to the second-longest coral reef system in the world, is a vital resource for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The Red Sea provides 90% of the Kingdom’s potable water by desalinization, supporting tourism, shipping, aquaculture, and fishing industries, which together contribute about 10%–20% of the country’s GDP. All these activities, and those elsewhere in the Red Sea region, critically depend on oceanic and atmospheric conditions. At a time of mega-development projects along the Red Sea coast, and global warming, authorities are working on optimizing the harnessing of environmental resources, including renewable energy and rainwater harvesting. All these require high-resolution weather and climate information. Toward this end, we have undertaken a multipronged research and development activity in which we are developing an integrated data-driven regional coupled modeling system. The telescopically nested components include 5-km- to 600-m-resolution atmospheric models to address weather and climate challenges, 4-km- to 50-m-resolution ocean models with regional and coastal configurations to simulate and predict the general and mesoscale circulation, 4-km- to 100-m-resolution ecosystem models to simulate the biogeochemistry, and 1-km- to 50-m-resolution wave models. In addition, a complementary probabilistic transport modeling system predicts dispersion of contaminant plumes, oil spill, and marine ecosystem connectivity. Advanced ensemble data assimilation capabilities have also been implemented for accurate forecasting. Resulting achievements include significant advancement in our understanding of the regional circulation and its connection to the global climate, development, and validation of long-term Red Sea regional atmospheric–oceanic–wave reanalyses and forecasting capacities. These products are being extensively used by academia, government, and industry in various weather and marine studies and operations, environmental policies, renewable energy applications, impact assessment, flood forecasting, and more.</jats:p