Comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials using clinical risk-benefit analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>To demonstrate the use of risk-benefit analysis for comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials, we applied this approach to the evaluation of five anticoagulants to prevent thrombosis in patients undergoing orthopedic surgery.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using a cost-effectiveness approach from a clinical perspective (i.e. risk benefit analysis) we compared thromboprophylaxis with warfarin, low molecular weight heparin, unfractionated heparin, fondaparinux or ximelagatran in patients undergoing major orthopedic surgery, with sub-analyses according to surgery type. Proportions and variances of events defining risk (major bleeding) and benefit (thrombosis averted) were obtained through a meta-analysis and used to define beta distributions. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted and used to calculate incremental risks, benefits, and risk-benefit ratios. Finally, net clinical benefit was calculated for all replications across a range of risk-benefit acceptability thresholds, with a reference range obtained by estimating the case fatality rate - ratio of thrombosis to bleeding.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The analysis showed that compared to placebo ximelagatran was superior to other options but final results were influenced by type of surgery, since ximelagatran was superior in total knee replacement but not in total hip replacement.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Using simulation and economic techniques we demonstrate a method that allows comparing multiple competing interventions in the absence of randomized trials with multiple arms by determining the option with the best risk-benefit profile. It can be helpful in clinical decision making since it incorporates risk, benefit, and personal risk acceptance.</p

Prediction of disability-free survival in healthy older people.

Prolonging survival in good health is a fundamental societal goal. However, the leading determinants of disability-free survival in healthy older people have not been well established. Data from ASPREE, a bi-national placebo-controlled trial of aspirin with 4.7 years median follow-up, was analysed. At enrolment, participants were healthy and without prior cardiovascular events, dementia or persistent physical disability. Disability-free survival outcome was defined as absence of dementia, persistent disability or death. Selection of potential predictors from amongst 25 biomedical, psychosocial and lifestyle variables including recognized geriatric risk factors, utilizing a machine-learning approach. Separate models were developed for men and women. The selected predictors were evaluated in a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model and validated internally by bootstrapping. We included 19,114 Australian and US participants aged ≥65 years (median 74 years, IQR 71.6-77.7). Common predictors of a worse prognosis in both sexes included higher age, lower Modified Mini-Mental State Examination score, lower gait speed, lower grip strength and abnormal (low or elevated) body mass index. Additional risk factors for men included current smoking, and abnormal eGFR. In women, diabetes and depression were additional predictors. The biased-corrected areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the final prognostic models at 5 years were 0.72 for men and 0.75 for women. Final models showed good calibration between the observed and predicted risks. We developed a prediction model in which age, cognitive function and gait speed were the strongest predictors of disability-free survival in healthy older people.Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01038583)

The Anticoagulation of Calf Thrombosis (ACT) project: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Half of all lower limb deep vein thrombi (DVT) in symptomatic ambulatory patients are located in the distal (calf) veins. While proximal disease warrants therapeutic anticoagulation to reduce the associated risks, distal DVT often goes untreated. However, a proportion of untreated distal disease will undoubtedly propagate or embolize. Concern also exists that untreated disease could lead to long-term post thrombotic changes. Currently, it is not possible to predict which distal thrombi will develop such complications. Whether these potential risks outweigh those associated with unrestricted anticoagulation remains unclear. The Anticoagulation of Calf Thrombosis (ACT) trial aims to compare therapeutic anticoagulation against conservative management for patients with acute symptomatic distal deep vein thrombosis.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>ACT is a pragmatic, open-label, randomized controlled trial. Adult patients diagnosed with acute distal DVT will be allocated to either therapeutic anticoagulation or conservative management. All patients will undergo 3 months of clinical and assessor blinded sonographic follow-up, followed by 2-year final review. The project will commence initially as an external pilot study, recruiting over a 16-month period at a single center to assess feasibility measures and clinical event rates. Primary outcome measures will assess feasibility endpoints. Secondary clinical outcomes will be collected to gather accurate data for the design of a definitive clinical trial and will include: (1) a composite endpoint combining thrombus propagation to the popliteal vein or above, development of symptomatic pulmonary embolism or sudden death attributable to venous thromboembolic disease; (2) the incidence of major and minor bleeding episodes; (3) the incidence of post-thrombotic leg syndrome at 2 years using a validated screening tool; and (4) the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) recurrence at 2 years.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>The ACT trial will explore the feasibility of comparing therapeutic anticoagulation to conservative management in acute distal DVT, within a modern cohort. We also aim to provide contemporary data on clot propagation, bleeding rates and long-term outcomes within both groups. These results will inform the conduct of a definitive study if feasibility is established.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Current Controlled Trials <a href="http://www.controlled-trials.com/ISRCTN75175695">ISRCTN75175695</a></p

The 'peptide for life' initiative in the emergency department study.

AIMS: Natriuretic peptide (NP) uptake varies in Emergency Departments (EDs) across Europe. The 'Peptide for Life' (P4L) initiative, led by Heart Failure Association, aims to enhance NP utilization for early diagnosis of heart failure (HF). We tested the hypothesis that implementing an educational campaign in Western Balkan countries would significantly increase NP adoption rates in the ED. METHODS AND RESULTS: This registry examined NP adoption before and after implementing the P4L-ED study across 10 centres in five countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. A train-the-trainer programme was implemented to enhance awareness of NP testing in the ED, and centres without access received point-of-care instruments. Differences in NP testing between the pre-P4L-ED and post-P4L-ED phases were evaluated. A total of 2519 patients were enrolled in the study: 1224 (48.6%) in the pre-P4L-ED phase and 1295 (51.4%) in the post-P4L-ED phase. NP testing was performed in the ED on 684 patients (55.9%) during the pre-P4L-ED phase and on 1039 patients (80.3%) during the post-P4L-ED phase, indicating a significant absolute difference of 24.4% (95% CI: 20.8% to 27.9%, P < 0.001). The use of both NPs and echocardiography significantly increased from 37.7% in the pre-P4L-ED phase to 61.3% in the post-P4L-ED phase. There was an increased prescription of diuretics and SGLT2 inhibitors during the post-P4L-ED phase. CONCLUSIONS: By increasing awareness and providing resources, the utilization of NPs increased in the ED, leading to improved diagnostic accuracy and enhanced patient care

Strength Training for Arthritis Trial (START): design and rationale

Background Muscle loss and fat gain contribute to the disability, pain, and morbidity associated with knee osteoarthritis (OA), and thigh muscle weakness is an independent and modifiable risk factor for it. However, while all published treatment guidelines recommend muscle strengthening exercise to combat loss of muscle mass and strength in knee OA patients, previous strength training studies either used intensities or loads below recommended levels for healthy adults or were generally short, lasting only 6 to 24 weeks. The efficacy of high-intensity strength training in improving OA symptoms, slowing progression, and affecting the underlying mechanisms has not been examined due to the unsubstantiated belief that it might exacerbate symptoms. We hypothesize that in addition to short-term clinical benefits, combining greater duration with high-intensity strength training will alter thigh composition sufficiently to attain long-term reductions in knee-joint forces, lower pain levels, decrease inflammatory cytokines, and slow OA progression. Methods/Design This is an assessor-blind, randomized controlled trial. The study population consists of 372 older (age ≥ 55 yrs) ambulatory, community-dwelling persons with: (1) mild-to-moderate medial tibiofemoral OA (Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) = 2 or 3); (2) knee neutral or varus aligned knee ( -2° valgus ≤ angle ≤ 10° varus); (3) 20 kg.m-2 ≥ BMI ≤ 45 kg.m-2; and (3) no participation in a formal strength-training program for more than 30 minutes per week within the past 6 months. Participants are randomized to one of 3 groups: high-intensity strength training (75-90% 1Repetition Maximum (1RM)); low-intensity strength training (30-40%1RM); or healthy living education. The primary clinical aim is to compare the interventions’ effects on knee pain, and the primary mechanistic aim is to compare their effects on knee-joint compressive forces during walking, a mechanism that affects the OA disease pathway. Secondary aims will compare the interventions’ effects on additional clinical measures of disease severity (e.g., function, mobility); disease progression measured by x-ray; thigh muscle and fat volume, measured by computed tomography (CT); components of thigh muscle function, including hip abductor strength and quadriceps strength, and power; additional measures of knee-joint loading; inflammatory and OA biomarkers; and health-related quality of life. Discussion Test-retest reliability for the thigh CT scan was: total thigh volume, intra-class correlation coefficients (ICC) = 0.99; total fat volume, ICC = 0.99, and total muscle volume, ICC = 0.99. ICC for both isokinetic concentric knee flexion and extension strength was 0.93, and for hip-abductor concentric strength was 0.99. The reliability of our 1RM testing was: leg press, ICC = 0.95; leg curl, ICC = 0.99; and leg extension, ICC = 0.98. Results of this trial will provide critically needed guidance for clinicians in a variety of health professions who prescribe and oversee treatment and prevention of OA-related complications. Given the prevalence and impact of OA and the widespread availability of this intervention, assessing the efficacy of optimal strength training has the potential for immediate and vital clinical impact

A systematic review of clinical trials of pharmacological interventions for acute ischaemic stroke (1955-2008) that were completed, but not published in full

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We assessed the prevalence, and potential impact of, trials of pharmacological agents for acute stroke that were completed but not published in full. Failure to publish trial data is to be deprecated as it sets aside the altruism of participants' consent to be exposed to the risks of experimental interventions, potentially biases the assessment of the effects of therapies, and may lead to premature discontinuation of research into promising treatments.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We searched the Cochrane Stroke Group's Specialised Register of Trials in June 2008 for completed trials of pharmacological interventions for acute ischaemic stroke, and searched MEDLINE and EMBASE (January 2007 - March 2009) for references to recent full publications. We assessed trial completion status from trial reports, online trials registers and correspondence with experts.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We identified 940 trials. Of these, 125 (19.6%, 95% confidence interval 16.5-22.6) were completed but not published in full by the point prevalence date. They included 16,058 participants (16 trials had over 300 participants each) and tested 89 different interventions. Twenty-two trials with a total of 4,251 participants reported the number of deaths. In these trials, 636/4251 (15.0%) died.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our data suggest that, at the point prevalence date, a substantial body of evidence that was of relevance both to clinical practice in acute stroke and future research in the field was not published in full. Over 16,000 patients had given informed consent and were exposed to the risks of therapy. Responsibility for non-publication lies with investigators, but pharmaceutical companies, research ethics committees, journals and governments can all encourage the timely publication of trial data.</p

Association of breast cancer risk in BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers with genetic variants showing differential allelic expression:Identification of a modifier of breast cancer risk at locus 11q22.3

Cis-acting regulatory SNPs resulting in differential allelic expression (DAE) may, in part, explain the underlying phenotypic variation associated with many complex diseases. To investigate whether common variants associated with DAE were involved in breast cancer susceptibility among BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation carriers, a list of 175 genes was developed based of their involvement in cancer-related pathways.Using data from a genome-wide map of SNPs associated with allelic expression, we assessed the association of similar to 320 SNPs located in the vicinity of these genes with breast and ovarian cancer risks in 15,252 BRCA1 and 8211 BRCA2 mutation carriers ascertained from 54 studies participating in the Consortium of Investigators of Modifiers of BRCA1/2.We identified a region on 11q22.3 that is significantly associated with breast cancer risk in BRCA1 mutation carriers (most significant SNP rs228595 p = 7 x 10(-6)). This association was absent in BRCA2 carriers (p = 0.57). The 11q22.3 region notably encompasses genes such as ACAT1, NPAT, and ATM. Expression quantitative trait loci associations were observed in both normal breast and tumors across this region, namely for ACAT1, ATM, and other genes. In silico analysis revealed some overlap between top risk-associated SNPs and relevant biological features in mammary cell data, which suggests potential functional significance.We identified 11q22.3 as a new modifier locus in BRCA1 carriers. Replication in larger studies using estrogen receptor (ER)-negative or triple-negative (i.e., ER-, progesterone receptor-, and HER2-negative) cases could therefore be helpful to confirm the association of this locus with breast cancer risk.</p

Evaluation of copy-number variants as modifiers of breast and ovarian cancer risk for BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers.

Genome-wide studies of patients carrying pathogenic variants (mutations) in BRCA1 or BRCA2 have reported strong associations between single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and cancer risk. To conduct the first genome-wide association analysis of copy-number variants (CNVs) with breast or ovarian cancer risk in a cohort of 2500 BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers, CNV discovery was performed using multiple calling algorithms and Illumina 610k SNP array data from a previously published genome-wide association study. Our analysis, which focused on functionally disruptive genomic deletions overlapping gene regions, identified a number of loci associated with risk of breast or ovarian cancer for BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers. Despite only including putative deletions called by at least two or more algorithms, detection of selected CNVs by ancillary molecular technologies only confirmed 40% of predicted common (>1% allele frequency) variants. These include four loci that were associated (unadjusted P<0.05) with breast cancer (GTF2H2, ZNF385B, NAALADL2 and PSG5), and two loci associated with ovarian cancer (CYP2A7 and OR2A1). An interesting finding from this study was an association of a validated CNV deletion at the CYP2A7 locus (19q13.2) with decreased ovarian cancer risk (relative risk=0.50, P=0.007). Genomic analysis found this deletion coincides with a region displaying strong regulatory potential in ovarian tissue, but not in breast epithelial cells. This study highlighted the need to verify CNVs in vitro, but also provides evidence that experimentally validated CNVs (with plausible biological consequences) can modify risk of breast or ovarian cancer in BRCA1 pathogenic variant carriers.European Journal of Human Genetics advance online publication, 1 February 2017; doi:10.1038/ejhg.2016.203.Multiple funders listed in the article