Simulering av ventetid og effektivitet i sykehus - Separate eller kombinerte avdelinger for akutte og elektive pasienter

Mange sykehus opplever uønskede strykninger av elektive operasjoner fordi øyeblikkelig hjelp pasienter må prioriteres. Den elektive pasienten henvises til venting til det igjen er ledig kapasitet. Skjerming av sykehusenes elektive virksomhet er derfor et tilbakevendende tema i den helsepolitiske debatten. I denne artikkelen diskuterer vi fordeler og ulemper med skjerming av elektiv virksomhet med utgangspunkt i resultatene fra en simuleringsmodell. Modellsimuleringene er gjort med det norskutviklede dataprogrammet Powersim Constructor (versjon 2.5). En kombinert avdeling som både behandler akutte og elektive pasienter forventes å ha kortere ventetider og mindre overtidsbruk enn en løsning med separat akutt og separat elektiv avdeling. Bakgrunnen for dette er at større fleksibilitet i den kombinerte avdelingen i ressursbruk i behandling av elektive og akutte pasienter oppnår høyere gjennomsnittlig kapasitetsutnyttelse. I den kombinerte avdelingen står pasientene i fare for å bli strøket av programmet på operasjonsdagen siden de konkurrerer med akutte pasienter om kapasitet. Som kompensasjon for denne ulempen får de kortere ventetid i ordinær kø før behandling. Resultatene tyder på at skjerming av elektiv virksomhet i seg selv ikke er så gunstig som antatt siden den samlede kapasitetsutnyttelsen for begge avdelinger blir mindre enn ved den kombinerte avdelingen. Imidlertid kan separate avdelinger medføre muligheter for effektivisering av den elektive virksomheten som igjen vil kunne bidra til kortere ventetider.Venteliste; sykehus; kirurgi; systemdynamikk; pasientstrømmer; øyeblikkelig hjelp

Evaluation of Subjective Appetite Assessment under Free-Living vs. Controlled Conditions: A Randomized Crossover Trial Comparing Whole-Grain Rye and Refined Wheat Diets (VASA-Home)

Background: Accurate assessment of self-reported appetite under free-living conditions is warranted to conduct large-scale intervention studies measuring appetite at a feasible cost. However, the performance of visual analogue scales (VASs) for this purpose has not been widely examined. Method: This randomized crossover trial was conducted to evaluate VASs in free-living vs. clinic-based settings and to assess appetite response following hypocaloric whole-grain rye and refined wheat diets. Twenty-nine healthy adults with overweight or obesity continuously answered VAS questions about their perceived appetite from morning to evening. Results: No differences in whole-day VAS scores (primary outcome) between clinic-based and free-living settings were observed, whereas measures of total area under the curve (tAUC) showed increased fullness in clinic-based interventions of 7% (p < 0.008) for whole-day responses and 13% (p < 0.03) following a snack. Appetite responses for a whole day did not differ between diets whereas rye-based dinners induced 12% (p < 0.016) higher fullness and reduced hunger by 17% (p < 0.02) irrespective of setting. A reduction in hunger of 15% (p < 0.05) was also observed following rye-based vs. wheat-based lunches. Conclusion: The results suggest that the VAS is valid for evaluation of appetite responses between diets under free-living conditions. No difference in self-reported appetite over the whole day was found after whole-grain rye vs. refined wheat-based diets, but there were some suggested differences at certain postprandial periods, in individuals with overweight or obesity

TRY plant trait database - enhanced coverage and open access

Plant traits-the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants-determine how plants respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, and influence ecosystem properties and their benefits and detriments to people. Plant trait data thus represent the basis for a vast area of research spanning from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology, to biodiversity conservation, ecosystem and landscape management, restoration, biogeography and earth system modelling. Since its foundation in 2007, the TRY database of plant traits has grown continuously. It now provides unprecedented data coverage under an open access data policy and is the main plant trait database used by the research community worldwide. Increasingly, the TRY database also supports new frontiers of trait-based plant research, including the identification of data gaps and the subsequent mobilization or measurement of new data. To support this development, in this article we evaluate the extent of the trait data compiled in TRY and analyse emerging patterns of data coverage and representativeness. Best species coverage is achieved for categorical traits-almost complete coverage for 'plant growth form'. However, most traits relevant for ecology and vegetation modelling are characterized by continuous intraspecific variation and trait-environmental relationships. These traits have to be measured on individual plants in their respective environment. Despite unprecedented data coverage, we observe a humbling lack of completeness and representativeness of these continuous traits in many aspects. We, therefore, conclude that reducing data gaps and biases in the TRY database remains a key challenge and requires a coordinated approach to data mobilization and trait measurements. This can only be achieved in collaboration with other initiatives

Cost effectiveness of epidural steroid injections to manage chronic lower back pain

Background The efficacy of epidural steroid injections in the management of chronic low back pain is disputed, yet the technique remains popular amongst physicians and patients alike. This study assesses the cost effectiveness of injections administered in a routine outpatient setting in England. Methods Patients attending the Nottingham University Hospitals’ Pain Clinic received two injections of methylprednisolone plus levobupivacaine at different dosages, separated by at least 12 weeks. Prior to each injection, and every week thereafter for 12 weeks, participants completed the EQ-5D health-related quality of life instrument. For each patient for each injection, total health state utility gain relative to baseline was calculated. The cost of the procedure was modelled from observed clinical practice. Cost effectiveness was calculated as procedure cost relative to utility gain. Results 39 patients provided records. Over a 13-week period commencing with injection, mean quality adjusted life year (QALY) gains per patient for the two dosages were 0.028 (SD 0.063) and 0.021 (SD 0.057). The difference in QALYs gained by dosage was insignificant (paired t-test, CIs -0.019 – 0.033). Based on modelled resource use and data from other studies, the mean cost of an injection was estimated at £219 (SD 83). The cost utility ratio of the two injections amounted to £8,975 per QALY gained (CIs 5,480 – 22,915). However, at costs equivalent to the tariff price typically paid to providers by health care purchasers, the ratio increased to £27,459 (CIs 16,779 – 70,091). Conclusions When provided in an outpatient setting, epidural steroid injections are a short term, but nevertheless cost effective, means of managing chronic low back pain. However, designation of the procedure as a day case requires the National Health Service to reimburse providers at a price which pushes the procedure to the margin of cost effectiveness

Association between DNA Damage Response and Repair Genes and Risk of Invasive Serous Ovarian Cancer

BACKGROUND: We analyzed the association between 53 genes related to DNA repair and p53-mediated damage response and serous ovarian cancer risk using case-control data from the North Carolina Ovarian Cancer Study (NCOCS), a population-based, case-control study. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: The analysis was restricted to 364 invasive serous ovarian cancer cases and 761 controls of white, non-Hispanic race. Statistical analysis was two staged: a screen using marginal Bayes factors (BFs) for 484 SNPs and a modeling stage in which we calculated multivariate adjusted posterior probabilities of association for 77 SNPs that passed the screen. These probabilities were conditional on subject age at diagnosis/interview, batch, a DNA quality metric and genotypes of other SNPs and allowed for uncertainty in the genetic parameterizations of the SNPs and number of associated SNPs. Six SNPs had Bayes factors greater than 10 in favor of an association with invasive serous ovarian cancer. These included rs5762746 (median OR(odds ratio)(per allele) = 0.66; 95% credible interval (CI) = 0.44-1.00) and rs6005835 (median OR(per allele) = 0.69; 95% CI = 0.53-0.91) in CHEK2, rs2078486 (median OR(per allele) = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.21-2.25) and rs12951053 (median OR(per allele) = 1.65; 95% CI = 1.20-2.26) in TP53, rs411697 (median OR (rare homozygote) = 0.53; 95% CI = 0.35 - 0.79) in BACH1 and rs10131 (median OR( rare homozygote) = not estimable) in LIG4. The six most highly associated SNPs are either predicted to be functionally significant or are in LD with such a variant. The variants in TP53 were confirmed to be associated in a large follow-up study. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Based on our findings, further follow-up of the DNA repair and response pathways in a larger dataset is warranted to confirm these results

Chironomid-based palaeotemperature estimates for northeast Finland during Oxygen Isotope Stage 3.

Quantitative palaeotemperature estimates for the earlier part of Oxygen Isotope Stage (OIS-) 3 are inferred from subfossil chironomid remains. The high-latitudinal study site of Sokli, northeast Finland, provides for a unique lacustrine deposit covering the earlier part of OIS-3, and the chironomid remains found in the sediments show that a shallow lake with a diverse fauna was present at the study site throughout the record. Using a Norwegian calibration data set as a modern analogue, mean July air temperatures are reconstructed. The chironomid-inferred July air temperatures are surprisingly high, reaching values similar to the current temperature at the study site. Other proxies that were applied to the sediments included the analysis of botanical and zoological macro-remains, and our results concur with temperature estimates derived from climate indicator taxa. Summer temperatures for interstadial conditions, reconstructed with climate models, are as high as our proxy-based palaeotemperatures

The Sudden Dominance of blaCTX–M Harbouring Plasmids in Shigella spp. Circulating in Southern Vietnam

Shigellosis is a disease caused by bacteria belonging to Shigella spp. and is a leading cause of bacterial gastrointestinal infections in infants in unindustrialized countries. The Shigellae are dynamic and capable of rapid change when placed under selective pressure in a human population. Extended spectrum beta lactamases (ESBLs) are enzymes capable of degrading cephalosporins (a group of antimicrobial agents) and the genes that encode them are common in pathogenic E. coli and other related organisms in industrialized countries. In southern Vietnam, we have isolated multiple cephalosporin-resistant Shigella that express ESBLs. Furthermore, over two years these strains have replaced strains isolated from patients with shigellosis that cannot express ESBLs. Our work describes the genes responsible for this characteristic and we investigate one of the elements carrying one of these genes. These finding have implications for treatment of shigellosis and support the growing necessity for vaccine development. Our findings also may be pertinent for other countries undergoing a similar economic transition to Vietnam's and the corresponding effect on bacterial populations

The instrument suite of the European Spallation Source

An overview is provided of the 15 neutron beam instruments making up the initial instrument suite of the European Spallation Source (ESS), and being made available to the neutron user community. The ESS neutron source consists of a high-power accelerator and target station, providing a unique long-pulse time structure of slow neutrons. The design considerations behind the time structure, moderator geometry and instrument layout are presented. The 15-instrument suite consists of two small-angle instruments, two reflectometers, an imaging beamline, two single-crystal diffractometers; one for macromolecular crystallography and one for magnetism, two powder diffractometers, and an engineering diffractometer, as well as an array of five inelastic instruments comprising two chopper spectrometers, an inverse-geometry single-crystal excitations spectrometer, an instrument for vibrational spectroscopy and a high-resolution backscattering spectrometer. The conceptual design, performance and scientific drivers of each of these instruments are described. All of the instruments are designed to provide breakthrough new scientific capability, not currently available at existing facilities, building on the inherent strengths of the ESS long-pulse neutron source of high flux, flexible resolution and large bandwidth. Each of them is predicted to provide world-leading performance at an accelerator power of 2 MW. This technical capability translates into a very broad range of scientific capabilities. The composition of the instrument suite has been chosen to maximise the breadth and depth of the scientific impact o