Multilayered feed forward Artificial Neural Network model to predict the average summer-monsoon rainfall in India

In the present research, possibility of predicting average summer-monsoon rainfall over India has been analyzed through Artificial Neural Network models. In formulating the Artificial Neural Network based predictive model, three layered networks have been constructed with sigmoid non-linearity. The models under study are different in the number of hidden neurons. After a thorough training and test procedure, neural net with three nodes in the hidden layer is found to be the best predictive model.Comment: 19 pages, 1 table, 3 figure

The welfare of water buffaloes during the slaughter process: a review

This paper reviews the scientific literature on water buffalo welfare in all stages of the live animal supply chain from the farm gate to slaughter (loading/unloading, markets, transportation, handling, lairage, stunning and slaughter) with the objective of identifying risk factors and potential mitigation strategies. Although in some countries legislation exists to protect the welfare of farm animals during transport and killing, the handling practices used to load and unload buffaloes and move them in livestock markets and abattoirs are often harsh. This is frequently due to inadequate equipment designed principally for cattle, and the fact that water buffaloes are considered more temperamental than cattle. Additionally, more reactive animals have increased stress responses to handling, which can lead to more negative human interventions with increased numbers of skin lesions and bruises to the carcasses. During transport, buffaloes may suffer periods of thermal stress due to overstocking, inadequate ventilation and because in many tropical climates trips are made during the hottest time of the day. The anatomical and physiological characteristics of water buffalo make them particularly susceptible to thermal stress in the absence of water for wallowing. Although water buffaloes belong to the same Bovidae family as domestic cattle, certain anatomical features of the head make effective stunning very problematic. Buffaloes have extensive sinuses and frontal bones, meaning that the penetrating captive bolt devices recommended for cattle may prove ineffective in reliably inducing unconsciousness. There is a need for further development of procedures, stunning positions and appropriate devices to improve the efficiency of buffalo stunning. Finally, in many parts of the world where buffalo are routinely slaughtered in basic conditions without prior stunning. Slaughter without stunning can result in pain and stress associated with delays in the time to loss of consciousness, pain from the cutting of the neck and potential distress associated with aspiration of blood into the respiratory tract. Specific legislation, guidelines and handler/stockman/operator training programmes should be developed to improve the welfare of buffaloes during all ante mortem stages of loading, unloading, handling, stunning and slaughter

Exact multilocal renormalization on the effective action : application to the random sine Gordon model statics and non-equilibrium dynamics

We extend the exact multilocal renormalization group (RG) method to study the flow of the effective action functional. This important physical quantity satisfies an exact RG equation which is then expanded in multilocal components. Integrating the nonlocal parts yields a closed exact RG equation for the local part, to a given order in the local part. The method is illustrated on the O(N) model by straightforwardly recovering the $\eta$ exponent and scaling functions. Then it is applied to study the glass phase of the Cardy-Ostlund, random phase sine Gordon model near the glass transition temperature. The static correlations and equilibrium dynamical exponent $z$ are recovered and several new results are obtained. The equilibrium two-point scaling functions are obtained. The nonequilibrium, finite momentum, two-time $t,t'$ response and correlations are computed. They are shown to exhibit scaling forms, characterized by novel exponents $\lambda_R \neq \lambda_C$, as well as universal scaling functions that we compute. The fluctuation dissipation ratio is found to be non trivial and of the form $X(q^z (t-t'), t/t')$. Analogies and differences with pure critical models are discussed.Comment: 33 pages, RevTe

Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change

Biodiversity faces unprecedented threats from rapid global change1. Signals of biodiversity change come from time-series abundance datasets for thousands of species over large geographic and temporal scales. Analyses of these biodiversity datasets have pointed to varied trends in abundance, including increases and decreases. However, these analyses have not fully accounted for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures in the data. Here, using a new statistical framework, we show across ten high-profile biodiversity datasets2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11 that increases and decreases under existing approaches vanish once spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures are accounted for. This is a consequence of existing approaches severely underestimating trend uncertainty and sometimes misestimating the trend direction. Under our revised average abundance trends that appropriately recognize uncertainty, we failed to observe a single increasing or decreasing trend at 95% credible intervals in our ten datasets. This emphasizes how little is known about biodiversity change across vast spatial and taxonomic scales. Despite this uncertainty at vast scales, we reveal improved local-scale prediction accuracy by accounting for spatial, temporal and phylogenetic structures. Improved prediction offers hope of estimating biodiversity change at policy-relevant scales, guiding adaptive conservation responses

Gravitational radiation from gamma-ray bursts as observational opportunities for LIGO and VIRGO

Gamma-ray bursts are believed to originate in core-collapse of massive stars. This produces an active nucleus containing a rapidly rotating Kerr black hole surrounded by a uniformly magnetized torus represented by two counter-oriented current rings. We quantify black hole spin-interactions with the torus and charged particles along open magnetic flux-tubes subtended by the event horizon. A major output of Egw=4e53 erg is radiated in gravitational waves of frequency fgw=500 Hz by a quadrupole mass-moment in the torus. Consistent with GRB-SNe, we find (i) Ts=90s (tens of s, Kouveliotou et al. 1993), (ii) aspherical SNe of kinetic energy Esn=2e51 erg (2e51 erg in SN1998bw, Hoeflich et al. 1999) and (iii) GRB-energies Egamma=2e50 erg (3e50erg in Frail et al. 2001). GRB-SNe occur perhaps about once a year within D=100Mpc. Correlating LIGO/Virgo detectors enables searches for nearby events and their spectral closure density 6e-9 around 250Hz in the stochastic background radiation in gravitational waves. At current sensitivity, LIGO-Hanford may place an upper bound around 150MSolar in GRB030329. Detection of Egw thus provides a method for identifying Kerr black holes by calorimetry.Comment: to appear in PRD, 49

Grafting of Poly(methyl methacrylate) Brushes from Magnetite Nanoparticles Using a Phosphonic Acid Based Initiator by Ambient Temperature Atom Transfer Radical Polymerization (ATATRP)

Poly(methyl methacrylate) in the brush form is grown from the surface of magnetite nanoparticles by ambient temperature atom transfer radical polymerization (ATATRP) using a phosphonic acid based initiator. The surface initiator was prepared by the reaction of ethylene glycol with 2-bromoisobutyrl bromide, followed by the reaction with phosphorus oxychloride and hydrolysis. This initiator is anchored to magnetite nanoparticles via physisorption. The ATATRP of methyl methacrylate was carried out in the presence of CuBr/PMDETA complex, without a sacrificial initiator, and the grafting density is found to be as high as 0.90 molecules/nm2. The organic–inorganic hybrid material thus prepared shows exceptional stability in organic solvents unlike unfunctionalized magnetite nanoparticles which tend to flocculate. The polymer brushes of various number average molecular weights were prepared and the molecular weight was determined using size exclusion chromatography, after degrafting the polymer from the magnetite core. Thermogravimetric analysis, X-ray photoelectron spectra and diffused reflection FT-IR were used to confirm the grafting reaction

Connectivity: insights from the U.S. Long Term Ecological Research Network

Ecosystems across the United States are changing in complex and surprising ways. Ongoing demand for critical ecosystem services requires an understanding of the populations and communities in these ecosystems in the future. This paper represents a synthesis effort of the U.S. National Science Foundation-funded Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER) network addressing the core research area of “populations and communities.” The objective of this effort was to show the importance of long-term data collection and experiments for addressing the hardest questions in scientific ecology that have significant implications for environmental policy and management. Each LTER site developed at least one compelling case study about what their site could look like in 50–100 yr as human and environmental drivers influencing specific ecosystems change. As the case studies were prepared, five themes emerged, and the studies were grouped into papers in this LTER Futures Special Feature addressing state change, connectivity, resilience, time lags, and cascading effects. This paper addresses the “connectivity” theme and has examples from the Phoenix (urban), Niwot Ridge (alpine tundra), McMurdo Dry Valleys (polar desert), Plum Island (coastal), Santa Barbara Coastal (coastal), and Jornada (arid grassland and shrubland) sites. Connectivity has multiple dimensions, ranging from multi-scalar interactions in space to complex interactions over time that govern the transport of materials and the distribution and movement of organisms. The case studies presented here range widely, showing how land-use legacies interact with climate to alter the structure and function of arid ecosystems and flows of resources and organisms in Antarctic polar desert, alpine, urban, and coastal marine ecosystems. Long-term ecological research demonstrates that connectivity can, in some circumstances, sustain valuable ecosystem functions, such as the persistence of foundation species and their associated biodiversity or, it can be an agent of state change, as when it increases wind and water erosion. Increased connectivity due to warming can also lead to species range expansions or contractions and the introduction of undesirable species. Continued long-term studies are essential for addressing the complexities of connectivity. The diversity of ecosystems within the LTER network is a strong platform for these studies

Accretion, Outflows, and Winds of Magnetized Stars

Many types of stars have strong magnetic fields that can dynamically influence the flow of circumstellar matter. In stars with accretion disks, the stellar magnetic field can truncate the inner disk and determine the paths that matter can take to flow onto the star. These paths are different in stars with different magnetospheres and periods of rotation. External field lines of the magnetosphere may inflate and produce favorable conditions for outflows from the disk-magnetosphere boundary. Outflows can be particularly strong in the propeller regime, wherein a star rotates more rapidly than the inner disk. Outflows may also form at the disk-magnetosphere boundary of slowly rotating stars, if the magnetosphere is compressed by the accreting matter. In isolated, strongly magnetized stars, the magnetic field can influence formation and/or propagation of stellar wind outflows. Winds from low-mass, solar-type stars may be either thermally or magnetically driven, while winds from massive, luminous O and B type stars are radiatively driven. In all of these cases, the magnetic field influences matter flow from the stars and determines many observational properties. In this chapter we review recent studies of accretion, outflows, and winds of magnetized stars with a focus on three main topics: (1) accretion onto magnetized stars; (2) outflows from the disk-magnetosphere boundary; and (3) winds from isolated massive magnetized stars. We show results obtained from global magnetohydrodynamic simulations and, in a number of cases compare global simulations with observations.Comment: 60 pages, 44 figure

Dual control of fault intersections on stop-start rupture in the 2016 Central Italy seismic sequence

Large continental earthquakes necessarily involve failure of multiple faults or segments. But these same critically-stressed systems sometimes fail in drawn-out sequences of smaller earthquakes over days or years instead. These two modes of failure have vastly different implications for seismic hazard and it is not known why fault systems sometimes fail in one mode or the other, or what controls the termination and reinitiation of slip in protracted seismic sequences. A paucity of modern observations of seismic sequences has hampered our understanding to-date, but a series of three Mw>6 earthquakes from August to November 2016 in Central Italy represents a uniquely well-observed example. Here we exploit a wealth of geodetic, seismological and field data to understand the spatio-temporal evolution of the sequence. Our results suggest that pre-existing fault structures controlled the extent and termination of rupture in each event in the sequence, and that fluid diffusion, channelled along these same structures, may have also determined the timing of rupture reinitiation. This dual control of subsurface structure on the stop-start rupture in seismic sequences may be common; future efforts should focus on investigating its prevalence

Heavy quarkonium: progress, puzzles, and opportunities

A golden age for heavy quarkonium physics dawned a decade ago, initiated by the confluence of exciting advances in quantum chromodynamics (QCD) and an explosion of related experimental activity. The early years of this period were chronicled in the Quarkonium Working Group (QWG) CERN Yellow Report (YR) in 2004, which presented a comprehensive review of the status of the field at that time and provided specific recommendations for further progress. However, the broad spectrum of subsequent breakthroughs, surprises, and continuing puzzles could only be partially anticipated. Since the release of the YR, the BESII program concluded only to give birth to BESIII; the $B$-factories and CLEO-c flourished; quarkonium production and polarization measurements at HERA and the Tevatron matured; and heavy-ion collisions at RHIC have opened a window on the deconfinement regime. All these experiments leave legacies of quality, precision, and unsolved mysteries for quarkonium physics, and therefore beg for continuing investigations. The plethora of newly-found quarkonium-like states unleashed a flood of theoretical investigations into new forms of matter such as quark-gluon hybrids, mesonic molecules, and tetraquarks. Measurements of the spectroscopy, decays, production, and in-medium behavior of c\bar{c}, b\bar{b}, and b\bar{c} bound states have been shown to validate some theoretical approaches to QCD and highlight lack of quantitative success for others. The intriguing details of quarkonium suppression in heavy-ion collisions that have emerged from RHIC have elevated the importance of separating hot- and cold-nuclear-matter effects in quark-gluon plasma studies. This review systematically addresses all these matters and concludes by prioritizing directions for ongoing and future efforts.Comment: 182 pages, 112 figures. Editors: N. Brambilla, S. Eidelman, B. K. Heltsley, R. Vogt. Section Coordinators: G. T. Bodwin, E. Eichten, A. D. Frawley, A. B. Meyer, R. E. Mitchell, V. Papadimitriou, P. Petreczky, A. A. Petrov, P. Robbe, A. Vair