Coupled thermo–geophysical inversion for permafrost monitoring

This study explores an alternative way of deriving soil thermal properties from surface geophysical measurements. We combined ground surface temperature time series with time lapse geoelectrical acquisitions measured from the ground surface in a fully coupled inversion scheme to calibrate a heat conduction model. The quantitative link between the thermal and geoelectrical parts of the modeling framework is the temperature-dependent unfrozen water content, which is also the main factor influencing electrical response of the ground. The apparent resistivity data were incorporated into the coupled framework without being inverted separately, thus reducing the uncertainty inevitably associated with inverted resistivity models. We show that geoelectrical time lapse data are useful as alternative calibration data and can provide as good results as borehole temperature measurements. The fully coupled modeling framework using field data achieved performance comparable to calibration on borehole temperature records in terms of model fit within 0.6 ∘C, inversion convergence metrics, as well as the predictive performance of the calibrated model.</p

Direct current (DC) resistivity and Induced Polarization (IP) monitoring of active layer dynamics at high temporal resolution

With permafrost thawing and changes in active layer dynamics induced by climate change, interactions between biogeochemical and thermal processes in the ground are of great importance. Here, active layer dynamics have been monitored using direct current (DC) resistivity and induced polarization (IP) measurements at high temporal resolution and at a relatively large scale at a heath tundra site on Disko Island on the west coast of Greenland (69 degrees N). At the field site, the active layer is disconnected from the deeper permafrost, due to isothermal springs in the region. Borehole sediment characteristics and subsurface temperatures supplemented the DC-IF measurements. A time-lapse DC-IP monitoring system has been acquiring at least six datasets per day on a 42-electrode profile with 0.5 m electrode spacing since July 2013. Remote control of the data acquisition system enables interactive adaptation of the measurement schedule, which is critically important to acquire data in the winter months, where extremely high contact resistances increase the demands on the resistivity meter. Data acquired during the freezing period of October 2013 to February 2014 clearly image the soil freezing as a strong increase in resistivity. While the freezing horizon generally moves deeper with time, some variations in the freezing depth are observed along the profile. Comparison with depth-specific soil temperature indicates an exponential relationship between resistivity and below-freezing temperature. Time-lapse inversions of the full-decay IF data indicate a decrease of normalized chargeability with freezing of the ground, which is the result of a decrease in the total unfrozen water and of the higher ion concentration in the pore-water. We conclude that DC-IP time-lapse measurements can non-intrusively and reliably image freezing patterns and their lateral variation on a 10-100 m scale that is difficult to sample by point measurements. In combination with laboratory experiments, the different patterns in resistivity and chargeability changes will enable the disentanglement of processes (e.g., fluid migration and freezing, advective and diffusive heat transport) occurring during freezing of the ground. The technology can be expanded to three dimensions and also to larger scale

Permafrost degradation risk zone assessment using simulation models

In this proof-of-concept study we focus on linking large scale climate and permafrost simulations to small scale engineering projects by bridging the gap between climate and permafrost sciences on the one hand and on the other technical recommendation for adaptation of planned infrastructures to climate change in a region generally underlain by permafrost. We present the current and future state of permafrost in Greenland as modelled numerically with the GIPL model driven by HIRHAM climate projections up to 2080. We develop a concept called Permafrost Thaw Potential (PTP), defined as the potential active layer increase due to climate warming and surface alterations. PTP is then used in a simple risk assessment procedure useful for engineering applications. The modelling shows that climate warming will result in continuing wide-spread permafrost warming and degradation in Greenland, in agreement with present observations. We provide examples of application of the risk zone assessment approach for the two towns of Sisimiut and Ilulissat, both classified with high PTP

Simulating ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments with the CryoGrid community model

The ground ice content in cold environments influences the permafrost thermal regime and the thaw trajectories in a warming climate, especially for soils containing excess ice. Despite their importance, the amount and distribution of ground ice are often unknown due to lacking field observations. Hence, modeling the thawing of ice-rich permafrost soils and associated thermokarst is challenging as ground ice content has to be prescribed in the model setup. In this study, we present a model scheme, capable of simulating segregated ice formation during a model spinup together with associated ground heave. It provides the option to add a constant sedimentation rate throughout the simulation. Besides ice segregation, it can represent thaw consolidation processes and ground subsidence under a warming climate. The computation is based on soil mechanical processes, soil hydrology by the Richards equation and soil freezing characteristics. The code is implemented in the CryoGrid community model (version 1.0), a modular land surface model for simulations of the ground thermal regime. The simulation of ice segregation and thaw consolidation with the new model scheme allows us to analyze the evolution of ground ice content in both space and time. To do so, we use climate data from two contrasting permafrost sites to run the simulations. Several influencing factors are identified, which control the formation and thaw of segregated ice. (i) Model results show that high temperature gradients in the soil as well as moist conditions support the formation of segregated ice. (ii) We find that ice segregation increases in fine-grained soils and that especially organic-rich sediments enhance the process. (iii) Applying external loads suppresses ice segregation and speeds up thaw consolidation. (iv) Sedimentation leads to a rise of the ground surface and the formation of an ice-enriched layer whose thickness increases with sedimentation time. We conclude that the new model scheme is a step forward to improve the description of ground ice distributions in permafrost models and can contribute towards the understanding of ice segregation and thaw consolidation in permafrost environments under changing climatic conditions.</p

Stable oxygen isotope variability in two contrasting glacier river catchments in Greenland

Analysis of stable oxygen isotope (δ18O) characteristics is a useful tool to investigate water provenance in glacier river systems. In order to attain knowledge on the diversity of δ18O variations in Greenlandic rivers, we examined two contrasting glacierised catchments disconnected from the Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS). At the Mittivakkat Gletscher river, a small river draining a local temperate glacier in southeast Greenland, diurnal oscillations in δ18O occurred with a 3 h time lag to the diurnal oscillations in run-off. The mean annual δ18O was −14.68 ± 0.18 ‰ during the peak flow period. A hydrograph separation analysis revealed that the ice melt component constituted 82 ± 5 % of the total run-off and dominated the observed variations during peak flow in August 2004. The snowmelt component peaked between 10:00 and 13:00 local time, reflecting the long travel time and an inefficient distributed subglacial drainage network in the upper part of the glacier. At the Kuannersuit Glacier river on the island Qeqertarsuaq in west Greenland, the δ18O characteristics were examined after the major 1995–1998 glacier surge event. The mean annual δ18O was −19.47 ± 0.55 ‰. Despite large spatial variations in the δ18O values of glacier ice on the newly formed glacier tongue, there were no diurnal oscillations in the bulk meltwater emanating from the glacier in the post-surge years. This is likely a consequence of a tortuous subglacial drainage system consisting of linked cavities, which formed during the surge event. Overall, a comparison of the δ18O compositions from glacial river water in Greenland shows distinct differences between water draining local glaciers and ice caps (between −23.0 and −13.7 ‰) and the GrIS (between −29.9 and −23.2 ‰). This study demonstrates that water isotope analyses can be used to obtain important information on water sources and the subglacial drainage system structure that is highly desired for understanding glacier hydrology

The Arctic in the twenty-first century: changing biogeochemical linkages across a paraglacial landscape of Greenland

The Kangerlussuaq area of southwest Greenland encompasses diverse ecological, geomorphic, and climate gradients that function over a range of spatial and temporal scales. Ecosystems range from the microbial communities on the ice sheet and moisture-stressed terrestrial vegetation (and their associated herbivores) to freshwater and oligosaline lakes. These ecosystems are linked by a dynamic glacio-fluvial-aeolian geomorphic system that transports water, geological material, organic carbon and nutrients from the glacier surface to adjacent terrestrial and aquatic systems. This paraglacial system is now subject to substantial change because of rapid regional warming since 2000. Here, we describe changes in the eco- and geomorphic systems at a range of timescales and explore rapid future change in the links that integrate these systems. We highlight the importance of cross-system subsidies at the landscape scale and, importantly, how these might change in the near future as the Arctic is expected to continue to warm

Firn data compilation reveals widespread decrease of firn air content in western Greenland

The perennial snow, or firn, on the Greenland ice sheet each summer stores part of the meltwater formed at the surface, buffering the ice sheet’s contribution to sea level. We gathered observations of firn air content, indicative of the space available in the firn to retain meltwater, and find that this air content remained stable in cold regions of the firn over the last 65 years but recently decreased significantly in western Greenland

Firn data compilation reveals widespread decrease of firn air content in western Greenland

The perennial snow, or firn, on the Greenland ice sheet each summer stores part of the meltwater formed at the surface, buffering the ice sheet’s contribution to sea level. We gathered observations of firn air content, indicative of the space available in the firn to retain meltwater, and find that this air content remained stable in cold regions of the firn over the last 65 years but recently decreased significantly in western Greenland