Assessment of the desertification vulnerability of the Cappadocian district (Central Anatolia, Turkey) based on aridity and climate-process system

The present study discusses climate of the Cappadocian district in Turkey on the basis of Thornthwaite’s climate classification and water budget, Erinç’s aridity index and United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) aridity index, along with the spatial and inter-seasonal variations of precipitation and air temperatures. Vulnerability of the Cappadocia to desertification processes was also investigated with respect to the aridity, lithology dominated by tuffs and climate-process system and present land-use features of the district. The data analysis revealed that coefficients of variation (CV) of the mean and maximum temperatures are the greatest in summer and the smallest in winter. Nevşehir and Kayseri environs are the most continental parts of the Cappadocia with a high inter-annual variability and low temperatures. Cappadocia is characterized with a continental rainfall regime having a maximum precipitation in spring. Variability of summer precipitation totals is greater than that of other seasons, varying from 65.7% to 78%. The CVs of the annual precipitation totals are about 18% at north and about 20% at south. Semi-arid and dry sub-humid or semi-humid climate types prevail over Cappadocia according to Thornthwaite’s moisture and Erinç’s aridity indices. Steppe is the dominant vegetation formation with sparse dry forests. The Cappadocia is vulnerable to the desertification processes due to both natural factors (e.g. degree of aridity, climate-process system, weathering of tuffs, erosion, climate change, etc.) and human-involvement (e.g. land degradation and intensive tourism, etc.). In order to mitigate desertification and to preserve the historical and cultural heritages in Cappadocia, sustainable land-use management and tourism planning applications are urgently needed

Muğla Orman Bölge Müdürlüğü’ne bağlı orman arazilerinde 2008 yılında çıkan yangınların kuraklık indisleri ile çözümlenmesi

Muğla district is among the most risky areas of Turkey in terms of forest fires. Muğla Regional Forest Service meets the great economic losses and high amounts of vegetation at forest fires occurred within its boundaries. In this study, the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) Aridity Index and the Erinç’s Drought Index values were calculated and climate types were determined by using the long-term meteorological data of the Mugla meteorological station. In addition, to assess the year 2008 forest fires, the Keetch-Byram Drought Index were calculated by using daily data of the year 2008, and capture rates for forest fires were determined. Some results reached in the study can be summarized as follows:(i) Arid climate conditions are seen during the period between the months of the July and the September according to the UNCCD aridity index in Muğla.(ii) On the other hand, arid conditions are found between the months of the June and  the September in the Erinç’s drought index.(iii) The Keetch-Byram drought index is over the value of 600 during the period between the days of 27.06.2008 and 19.11.2008.(iv) The Keetch-Byram drought index caught the 69% of the 348 forest fires occurred in Muğla at the certain level of fire occurrence.(v) The Keetch-Byram drought index results calculated for the year of 2008 indicated much stronger relationships between the events of forest fires and the weather and climate conditions in comparison with the UNCCD and Erinç aridity indices.Muğla yöresi orman yangınları açısından Türkiye’nin en hassas alanları arasında yer alır. Muğla Orman Bölge Müdürlüğü, sınırları içerisinde oluşan orman yangınlarında her yıl yok olan orman alanları ve bozulan orman ekosistemi servisleriyle bağlantılı önemli düzeyde ekonomik kayıplarla karşılaşır. Bu çalışmada, Muğla meteoroloji istasyonunda kaydedilen uzun süreli meteorolojik veriler kullanılarak, Birleşmiş Miletler Çölleşme ile Savaşım Sözleşmesi (UNCCD) kuraklık indisi ile Erinç kuraklık indisi hesaplandı ve iklim tipleri belirlendi. Ayrıca, 2008 yılı orman yangınlarının değerlendirilebilmesi için, 2008 yılının günlük verileri kullanılarak Keetch-Byram kuraklık indisi (KBDI) hesaplandı ve indisin orman yangınlarını yakalama oranları belirlendi.Çalışmada ulaşılan bazı bulgular aşağıdaki şekilde özetlenebilir:(i) Muğla’da, UNCCD kuraklık indisine göre Temmuz – Eylül ayları arasındaki dönemde kurak iklim koşulları görülür.(ii) Erinç kuraklık indisinde, kurak koşullar Haziran – Eylül ayları arasında etkilidir.(iii) 2008 yılında Keetch-Byram kuraklık indisi, 27.06.2008 – 19.11.2008 günleri arasındaki dönemde 600 indis düzeyinin üzerindedir.(iv) Keetch-Byram kuraklık indisi, 2008 yılında Muğla’da oluşan 348 orman yangınının % 69’unu kesin yangın olur düzeyinde yakaladı.(v) 2008 yılı için hesaplanan KBDI sonuçları, yangın olayları ile hava ve iklim koşulları arasındaki ilişkiyi -Erinç ve UNCCD kuraklık indislerine göre- daha kuvvetli bir biçimde gösterir

Klimatolojik/meteorolojik ve hidrolojik afetler ve sigortacılık sektörü

Climate change is a continual fact during the Earth’s history. There had been many significant changes in the Earth’s climate during its evolutionary history and a lot of ecosystems had been affected by these changes. Especially the industrialization process showing rapid movement after industrial revolution has put serious pressure on the present and future climate. Human activities such as increased fossil fuel usage with the industrialization process, land-use changes, industrial processes and deforestation have increased atmospheric accumulation up of the various greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O). On the other hand, increase in frequency and severity of natural disasters can be explained mostly by the increase of the probability of extreme events due to the climate change. Increased numbers of people have been affected by climatological and meteorological catastrophes in every year. Various actions and activities such as disaster preparedness, mitigation, reduction and prevention of the impacts and early warnings are considerable with respect to the insurance sector. These activities and actions should be implemented in the frame of contemporary and comprehensive disaster management planes. Scope of the natural disaster should be expanded particularly in the countries and regions that are vulnerable to the impacts of the climate change and variability including drought events and/or natural disasters. Moreover, drought events should also be accepted as one of the severe natural disasters, and sustainable and applicable drought management plans should be developed in order to mitigate these disasters. In this context, main purpose of the study is to classify and shortly assess the climatological and meteorological disasters, and to attract attention necessity of a new disaster insurance system containing these disasters.İklim değişikliği Yerküre tarihi boyunca süregelen bir olgudur. Yerküre’nin evrimsel tarihi boyunca iklimde birçok önemli değişiklik olmuş ve bu değişikliklerden birçok ekosistem etkilenmiştir. Özellikle, sanayi devriminden sonra hızla artış gösteren enerji üretimi ve sanayileşme günümüzdeki ve gelecekteki iklim üzerinde büyük baskı uygulamaktadır. Sanayileşme süreciyle artan fosil yakıt kullanımı, arazi kullanım değişikliği, sanayi süreçleri ve ormansızlaşma gibi insan etkinlikleri atmosferdeki karbondioksit (CO2), metan (CH4), diazotmonoksit (N2O) gibi çeşitli sera gazı birikimlerini arttırmıştır. Öte yandan, doğal afetlerin frekansındaki ve şiddetindeki artışlar da, çoğunlukla iklim değişikliğine bağlı ekstrem olayların gerçekleşme olasılığındaki artışlarla açıklanabilir. Her geçen yıl artan sayıda insan klimatolojik ve meteorolojik afetlerden etkilenmektedir. Çağdaş ve geniş kapsamlı bir afet yönetimi planlaması çerçevesinde, afete hazırlık, etkilerin azaltılması, karşı önlemler ve erken uyarılar gibi eylem ve etkinlikler sigortacılık sektörü açısından önemlidir. Özellikle iklim değişikliği ve kuraklık olaylarını da içeren iklimsel değişebilirliğe ve/ya doğal afetlere karşı hassas (etkilenebilirliği yüksek) olan ülke ve bölgelerde, afet kapsamı genişletilmelidir. Ayrıca, kuraklık olayları da şiddetli doğal afetlerden biri olarak kabul edilmeli ve kuraklık afetiyle savaşmak için uygulanabilir ve sürdürülebilir yönetim planları geliştirilmelidir. Bu bağlamda, çalışmanın başlıca amacı, klimatolojik ve meteorolojik afetleri sınıflandırarak kısa bir değerlendirmesini yapmak ve bu afetleri de kapsayan yeni bir afet sigortacılığı sistemine olan gereksinime dikkat çekmektir

A high-resolution late Holocene lake isotope record from Turkey and links to North Atlantic and monsoon climate

A high resolution proxy record of precipitation and evaporation variability through the past 1700 yr from δ18O analysis of a varved lake sequence from central Turkey shows rapid shifts between dry periods (AD 300–500 and AD 1400–1950) and wetter intervals (AD 560–750 and AD 1000–1350). Changes are consistent with changes in instrumental and proxy records of the Indian monsoon, dry summers in the Eastern Mediterranean being associated with periods of enhanced monsoon rainfall. In addition major shifts in the record are coherent with changes in North Atlantic winter climate with cold, wet periods in the Alps occurring at times of dry Turkish climate

Analysing projected changes in future air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey by using RegCM4.3.5 climate simulations

Bu çalışmada 1970-2000 dönemi günümüz iklimine göre 2070-2100 dönemi için Türkiye’nin ortalama hava sıcaklığı ve yağış klimatolojilerindeki değişikler, bölgesel iklim modeli simülasyonları (benzetim) kullanılarak öngörüldü. Günümüz ve gelecek iklim koşullarının model kestirimlerinin yapılması için, International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) bölgesel iklim modeli RegCM4.3.5 kullanıldı. Met Office Hadley Merkezi’nin HadGEM2 küresel iklim modeli, Türkiye ve çevresi için alt ölçeklendirme yöntemi ile çalışıldı. Gelecekte Türkiye’nin iklim değişkenlerinde oluşacak değişimleri incelemek için, küresel iklim modelinin RCP4.5 ve RCP8.5 salım senaryoları çıktıları kullanıldı. Model çıktılarına göre, Türkiye’de ortalama hava sıcaklıklarında 3 °C ile 7 °C arasında değişen artışlar olacaktır. Sıcaklık artışı, sıcak mevsimlerde soğuk mevsimlere göre daha fazla olacaktır. Bölgesel iklim modeli sonuçlarına göre, Türkiye’nin yağış klimatolojisinde ise, –0.8 mm/gün ile 1.2 mm/gün arasında değişen değişimler beklenmektedir.In this work, future changes for the period of 2070-2100 in mean air temperature and precipitation climatology of Turkey with respect to present climate (1971 to 2000) were projected by using regional climate model simulations. Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.3.5) of International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) was used for projections of future and present climate conditions. HadGEM2 (Hadley Global Environment Model 2) global climate model of Met Office Hadley Centre was downscaled for Turkey and its surrounding region. In this study, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were studied in order to investigate future changes of some climate variables in Turkey. According to the model results, there will be an increase of between 3 °C and 7 °C in mean air temperatures of Turkey. This warming will be more severe in warm seasons than cold seasons. Changes varying from –0.8 mm/day to 1.2 mm/day in precipitation climatology of Turkey are expected according to the regional climate model results.Publisher's Versio

Palaeolimnological evidence for an east-west climate see-saw in the Mediterranean since AD 900

During the period of instrumental records, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has strongly influenced inter-annual precipitation variations in the western Mediterranean, while some eastern parts of the basin have shown an anti-phase relationship in precipitation and atmospheric pressure. Here we explore how the NAO and other atmospheric circulation modes operated over the longer timescales of the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA). High-resolution palaeolimnological evidence from opposite ends of the Mediterranean basin, supplemented by other palaeoclimate data, is used to track shifts in regional hydro-climatic conditions. Multiple geochemical, sedimentological, isotopic and palaeoecological proxies from Estanya and Montcortés lakes in northeast Spain and Nar lake in central Turkey have been cross-correlated at decadal time intervals since AD 900. These dryland lakes capture sensitively changes in precipitation/evaporation (P/E) balance by adjustments in water level and salinity, and are especially valuable for reconstructing variability over decadal-centennial timescales. Iberian lakes show lower water levels and higher salinities during the 11th to 13th centuries synchronous with the MCA and generally more humid conditions during the 'LIA' (15th-19th centuries). This pattern is also clearly evident in tree-ring records from Morocco and from marine cores in the western Mediterranean Sea. In the eastern Mediterranean, palaeoclimatic records from Turkey, Greece and the Levant show generally drier hydro-climatic conditions during the LIA and a wetter phase during the MCA. This implies that a bipolar climate see-saw has operated in the Mediterranean for the last 1100. years. However, while western Mediterranean aridity appears consistent with persistent positive NAO state during the MCA, the pattern is less clear in the eastern Mediterranean. Here the strongest evidence for higher winter season precipitation during the MCA comes from central Turkey in the northeastern sector of the Mediterranean basin. This in turn implies that the LIA/MCA hydro-climatic pattern in the Mediterranean was determined by a combination of different climate modes along with major physical geographical controls, and not by NAO forcing alone, or that the character of the NAO and its teleconnections have been non-stationary. © 2011 Elsevier B.V

Akhisar ve Manisa Yörelerinin Yağış ve Kuraklık İndisi Dizilerindeki Değişimlerin Hidroklimatolojik ve Zaman Dizisi Çözümlemesi ve Sonuçların Çölleşme Açısından Coğrafi Bireşimi

This study performed a detailed analysis of climate and hydro-climatologic characteristics along with climate change and variability of the Akhisar and Manisa districts in order to climatologically determine nature and degree of observed increasing water scarcity and desertification processes over the Akhisar and Manisa plains during the period of about last 30 years. In the study, the data of stations having the long-term climatic series of observations have been made use of. The stations chosen for the study consist of Manisa, Salihli, Turgutlu and Akhisar meteorology stations of the Turkish State Meteorological Service, representing the Lower and Upper Gediz, Manisa and Akhisar plains, respectively. Long-term climatic variations and trends over the Manisa and Akhisar districts were analyzed by using time-series of annual and seasonal normalized precipitation index (NPI) and annual aridity index (AI). Nature and magnitude (statistical significance) of the observed long-term trends in the NPI and AI time-series were investigated with the non-parametric MannKendal rank correlation coefficient (τ) and the parametric least-squares linear regression methods. Trend tests applied to the NPI and AI time-series indicate that the Akhisar and Manisa districts have faced an apparent drying trend, and this trend has become stronger since the 1980s along with the severe drought events during the period of 2007 to 200