Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system

The unprecedented use of Earth's resources by humans, in combination with increasing natural variability in natural processes over the past century, is affecting the evolution of the Earth system. To better understand natural processes and their potential future trajectories requires improved integration with and quantification of human processes. Similarly, to mitigate risk and facilitate socio-economic development requires a better understanding of how the natural system (e.g. climate variability and change, extreme weather events, and processes affecting soil fertility) affects human processes. Our understanding of these interactions and feedback between human and natural systems has been formalized through a variety of modelling approaches. However, a common conceptual framework or set of guidelines to model human–natural-system feedbacks is lacking. The presented research lays out a conceptual framework that includes representing model coupling configuration in combination with the frequency of interaction and coordination of communication between coupled models. Four different approaches used to couple representations of the human and natural system are presented in relation to this framework, which vary in the processes represented and in the scale of their application. From the development and experience associated with the four models of coupled human–natural systems, the following eight lessons were identified that if taken into account by future coupled human–natural-systems model developments may increase their success: (1) leverage the power of sensitivity analysis with models, (2) remember modelling is an iterative process, (3) create a common language, (4) make code open-access, (5) ensure consistency, (6) reconcile spatio-temporal mismatch, (7) construct homogeneous units, and (8) incorporating feedback increases non-linearity and variability. Following a discussion of feedbacks, a way forward to expedite model coupling and increase the longevity and interoperability of models is given, which suggests the use of a wrapper container software, a standardized applications programming interface (API), the incorporation of standard names, the mitigation of sunk costs by creating interfaces to multiple coupling frameworks, and the adoption of reproducible workflow environments to wire the pieces together

Coastline changes and sedimentation related with the opening of an artificial channel: the Valo Grande Delta, SE Brazil

The role played by human activity in coastline changes indicates a general tendency of retreating coasts, especially deltaic environments, as a result of the recent trend of sea level rise as well as the blockage of the transfer of sediments towards the coast, especially due to the construction of dams. This is particularly important in deltaic environments which have been suffering a dramatic loss of area in the last decades. In contrast, in this paper, we report the origin and evolution of an anthropogenic delta, the Valo Grande delta, on the south-eastern Brazilian coast, whose origin is related to the opening of an artificial channel and the diversion of the main flow of the Ribeira de Iguape River. The methodology included the analysis of coastline changes, bathy metry and coring, which were used to determine the sedimentation rates and grain-size changes over time. The results allowed us to recognize the different facies of the anthropogenic delta and establish its lateral and vertical depositional trends. Despite not being very frequent, anthropogenic deltas represent a favorable environment for the record of natural and anthropogenic changes in historical times and, thus, deserve more attention from researchers of different subjects.Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP) [06/04344-2]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Distributary Channel Networks as Moving Boundaries: Causes and Morphodynamic Effects

We propose an exploratory model to describe the morphodynamics of distributary channel network growth on river deltas. The interface between deep channels and the shallow, unchannelized delta front deposits is modeled as a moving boundary. Steady flow over the unchannelized delta front is friction dominated and modeled by Laplace\u27s equation. Shear stress along the network boundary produces nonlinear erosion rates at the interface, causing the boundary to move and network elements (channels and branches) to form. The model was run for boundary conditions resembling the Wax Lake Delta in coastal Louisiana, 20 parameterizations of sediment transport, and 3 parameterizations of discharge. In each case, the model produced a complex channel network with channel number, width, bifurcation angle, and channel shape depending on the sediment transport formula. For reasonable sediment transport parameters and gradually increasing water discharge, the model produced network characteristics and progradation rates similar to the Wax Lake Delta. This suggests that the model contains the processes responsible for network growth, despite its abstract formulation

A Method for Structure–Activity Analysis of Quorum-Sensing Signaling Peptides from Naturally Transformable Streptococci

Many species of streptococci secrete and use a competence-stimulating peptide (CSP) to initiate quorum sensing for induction of genetic competence, bacteriocin production, and other activities. These signaling molecules are small, unmodified peptides that induce powerful strain-specific activity at nano-molar concentrations. This feature has provided an excellent opportunity to explore their structure–function relationships. However, CSP variants have also been identified in many species, and each specifically activates its cognate receptor. How such minor changes dramatically affect the specificity of these peptides remains unclear. Structure–activity analysis of these peptides may provide clues for understanding the specificity of signaling peptide–receptor interactions. Here, we use the Streptococcus mutans CSP as an example to describe methods of analyzing its structure–activity relationship. The methods described here may provide a platform for studying quorum-sensing signaling peptides of other naturally transformable streptococci

Can nuclear weapons fallout mark the beginning of the Anthropocene Epoch?

Many scientists are making the case that humanity is living in a new geological epoch, the Anthropocene, but there is no agreement yet as to when this epoch began. The start might be defined by a historical event, such as the beginning of the fossil-fueled Industrial Revolution or the first nuclear explosion in 1945. Standard stratigraphic practice, however, requires a more significant, globally widespread, and abrupt signature, and the fallout from nuclear weapons testing appears most suitable. The appearance of plutonium 239 (used in post- 1945 above-ground nuclear weapons tests) makes a good marker: This isotope is rare in nature but a significant component of fallout. It has other features to recommend it as a stable marker in layers of sedimentary rock and soil, including: long half-life, low solubility, and high particle reactivity. It may be used in conjunction with other radioactive isotopes, such as americium 241 and carbon 14, to categorize distinct fallout signatures in sediments and ice caps. On a global scale, the first appearance of plutonium 239 in sedimentary sequences corresponds to the early 1950s. While plutonium is easily detectable over the entire Earth using modern measurement techniques, a site to define the Anthropocene (known as a Ògolden spikeÓ) would ideally be located between 30 and 60 degrees north of the equator, where fallout is maximal, within undisturbed marine or lake environments

The Great Acceleration is real and provides a quantitative basis for the proposed Anthropocene Series/Epoch

The Anthropocene was conceptualized in 2000 to reflect the extensive impact of human activities on our planet, and subsequent detailed analyses have revealed a substantial Earth System response to these impacts beginning in the mid-20th century. Key to this understanding was the discovery of a sharp upturn in a multitude of global socio-economic indicators and Earth System trends at that time; a phenomenon termed the ‘Great Acceleration’. It coincides with massive increases in global human-consumed energy and shows the Earth System now on a trajectory far exceeding the earlier variability of the Holocene Epoch, and in some respects the entire Quaternary Period. The evaluation of geological signals similarly shows the mid-20th century as representing the most appropriate inception for the Anthropocene. A recent mathematical analysis has nonetheless challenged the significance of the original Great Acceleration data. We examine this analytical approach and reiterate the robustness of the original data in supporting the Great Acceleration, while emphasizing that intervals of rapid growth are inevitably time-limited, as recognised at the outset. Moreover, the exceptional magnitude of this growth remains undeniable, reaffirming the centrality of the Great Acceleration in justifying a formal chronostratigraphic Anthropocene at the rank of series/epoch

Fjords as Aquatic Critical Zones (ACZs)

In recent decades, the land-ocean aquatic continuum, commonly defined as the interface, or transition zone, between terrestrial ecosystems and the open ocean, has undergone dramatic changes. On-going work has stressed the importance of treating Aquatic Critical Zones (ACZs) as a sensitive system needing intensive investigation. Here, we discuss fjords as an ACZ in the context of sedimentological, geochemical, and climatic impacts. These diverse physical features of fjords are key in controlling the sources, transport, and burial of organic matter in the modern era and over the Holocene. High sediment accumulation rates in fjord sediments allow for high-resolution records of past climate and environmental change where multiple proxies can be applied to fjord sediments that focus on either marine or terrestrial-derived components. Humans through land-use change and climatic stressors are having an impact on the larger carbon stores in fjords. Sediment delivery whether from accelerating erosion (e.g. mining, deforestation, road building, agriculture) or from sequestration of fluvial sediment behind dams has been seriously altered in the Anthropocene. Climate change affecting rainfall and river discharge into fjords will impact the thickness and extent of the low-salinity layer in the upper reaches of the fjord, slowing the rate of the overturning circulation and deep-water renewal – thereby impacting bottom water oxygen concentrations

Extraordinary human energy consumption and resultant geological impacts beginning around 1950 CE initiated the proposed Anthropocene Epoch

Growth in fundamental drivers—energy use, economic productivity and population—can provide quantitative indications of the proposed boundary between the Holocene Epoch and the Anthropocene. Human energy expenditure in the Anthropocene, ~22 zetajoules (ZJ), exceeds that across the prior 11,700 years of the Holocene (~14.6 ZJ), largely through combustion of fossil fuels. The global warming effect during the Anthropocene is more than an order of magnitude greater still. Global human population, their productivity and energy consumption, and most changes impacting the global environment, are highly correlated. This extraordinary outburst of consumption and productivity demonstrates how the Earth System has departed from its Holocene state since ~1950 CE, forcing abrupt physical, chemical and biological changes to the Earth’s stratigraphic record that can be used to justify the proposal for naming a new epoch—the Anthropocene