Generation of scenarios from calibrated ensemble forecasts with a dual ensemble copula coupling approach

Probabilistic forecasts in the form of ensemble of scenarios are required for complex decision making processes. Ensemble forecasting systems provide such products but the spatio-temporal structures of the forecast uncertainty is lost when statistical calibration of the ensemble forecasts is applied for each lead time and location independently. Non-parametric approaches allow the reconstruction of spatio-temporal joint probability distributions at a low computational cost. For example, the ensemble copula coupling (ECC) method rebuilds the multivariate aspect of the forecast from the original ensemble forecasts. Based on the assumption of error stationarity, parametric methods aim to fully describe the forecast dependence structures. In this study, the concept of ECC is combined with past data statistics in order to account for the autocorrelation of the forecast error. The new approach, called d-ECC, is applied to wind forecasts from the high resolution ensemble system COSMO-DE-EPS run operationally at the German weather service. Scenarios generated by ECC and d-ECC are compared and assessed in the form of time series by means of multivariate verification tools and in a product oriented framework. Verification results over a 3 month period show that the innovative method d-ECC outperforms or performs as well as ECC in all investigated aspects

Wellbeing and resilience:Mechanisms of transmission of health and risk in parents with complex mental health problems and their offspring—The WARM Study

The WARM study is a longitudinal cohort study following infants of mothers with schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, depression and control from pregnancy to infant 1 year of age. Background: Children of parents diagnosed with complex mental health problems including schizophrenia, bipolar disorder and depression, are at increased risk of developing mental health problems compared to the general population. Little is known regarding the early developmental trajectories of infants who are at ultra-high risk and in particular the balance of risk and protective factors expressed in the quality of early caregiver-interaction. Methods/Design: We are establishing a cohort of pregnant women with a lifetime diagnosis of schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, major depressive disorder and a non-psychiatric control group. Factors in the parents, the infant and the social environment will be evaluated at 1, 4, 16 and 52 weeks in terms of evolution of very early indicators of developmental risk and resilience focusing on three possible environmental transmission mechanisms: stress, maternal caregiver representation, and caregiver-infant interaction. Discussion: The study will provide data on very early risk developmental status and associated psychosocial risk factors, which will be important for developing targeted preventive interventions for infants of parents with severe mental disorder

Integrated analysis of environmental and genetic influences on cord blood DNA methylation in new-borns

Epigenetic processes, including DNA methylation (DNAm), are among the mechanisms allowing integration of genetic and environmental factors to shape cellular function. While many studies have investigated either environmental or genetic contributions to DNAm, few have assessed their integrated effects. Here we examine the relative contributions of prenatal environmental factors and genotype on DNA methylation in neonatal blood at variably methylated regions (VMRs) in 4 independent cohorts (overall n = 2365). We use Akaike’s information criterion to test which factors best explain variability of methylation in the cohort-specific VMRs: several prenatal environmental factors (E), genotypes in cis (G), or their additive (G + E) or interaction (GxE) effects. Genetic and environmental factors in combination best explain DNAm at the majority of VMRs. The CpGs best explained by either G, G + E or GxE are functionally distinct. The enrichment of genetic variants from GxE models in GWAS for complex disorders supports their importance for disease risk

Integrated analysis of environmental and genetic influences on cord blood DNA methylation in new-borns

Epigenetic processes, including DNA methylation (DNAm), are among the mechanisms allowing integration of genetic and environmental factors to shape cellular function. While many studies have investigated either environmental or genetic contributions to DNAm, few have assessed their integrated effects. Here we examine the relative contributions of prenatal environmental factors and genotype on DNA methylation in neonatal blood at variably methylated regions (VMRs) in 4 independent cohorts (overall n = 2365). We use Akaike's information criterion to test which factors best explain variability of methylation in the cohort-specific VMRs: several prenatal environmental factors (E), genotypes in cis (G), or their additive (G + E) or interaction (GxE) effects. Genetic and environmental factors in combination best explain DNAm at the majority of VMRs. The CpGs best explained by either G, G + E or GxE are functionally distinct. The enrichment of genetic variants from GxE models in GWAS for complex disorders supports their importance for disease risk.Peer reviewe

Enhancing COSMO-DE ensemble forecasts by inexpensive techniques

COSMO-DE-EPS, a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system based on the high-resolution numerical weather prediction model COSMO-DE, is pre-operational since December 2010, providing probabilistic forecasts which cover Germany. This ensemble system comprises 20 members based on variations of the lateral boundary conditions, the physics parameterizations and the initial conditions. In order to increase the sample size in a computationally inexpensive way, COSMO-DE-EPS is combined with alternative ensemble techniques: the neighborhood method and the time-lagged approach. Their impact on the quality of the resulting probabilistic forecasts is assessed. Objective verification is performed over a six months period, scores based on the Brier score and its decomposition are shown for June 2011. The combination of the ensemble system with the alternative approaches improves probabilistic forecasts of precipitation in particular for high precipitation thresholds. Moreover, combining COSMO-DE-EPS with only the time-lagged approach improves the skill of area probabilities for precipitation and does not deteriorate the skill of 2 m-temperature and wind gusts forecasts

Lower or Higher Oxygenation Targets for Acute Hypoxemic Respiratory Failure.

BACKGROUND Patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure in the intensive care unit (ICU) are treated with supplemental oxygen, but the benefits and harms of different oxygenation targets are unclear. We hypothesized that using a lower target for partial pressure of arterial oxygen (Pao2) would result in lower mortality than using a higher target. METHODS In this multicenter trial, we randomly assigned 2928 adult patients who had recently been admitted to the ICU (≤12 hours before randomization) and who were receiving at least 10 liters of oxygen per minute in an open system or had a fraction of inspired oxygen of at least 0.50 in a closed system to receive oxygen therapy targeting a Pao2 of either 60 mm Hg (lower-oxygenation group) or 90 mm Hg (higher-oxygenation group) for a maximum of 90 days. The primary outcome was death within 90 days. RESULTS At 90 days, 618 of 1441 patients (42.9%) in the lower-oxygenation group and 613 of 1447 patients (42.4%) in the higher-oxygenation group had died (adjusted risk ratio, 1.02; 95% confidence interval, 0.94 to 1.11; P = 0.64). At 90 days, there was no significant between-group difference in the percentage of days that patients were alive without life support or in the percentage of days they were alive after hospital discharge. The percentages of patients who had new episodes of shock, myocardial ischemia, ischemic stroke, or intestinal ischemia were similar in the two groups (P = 0.24). CONCLUSIONS Among adult patients with acute hypoxemic respiratory failure in the ICU, a lower oxygenation target did not result in lower mortality than a higher target at 90 days. (Funded by the Innovation Fund Denmark and others; HOT-ICU ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT03174002.)