Un modelo conceptual sobre el funcionamiento de los ríos mediterráneos sometidos a perturbaciones naturales (riadas y sequías)

The Mediterranean regions are prone to suffer extraordinary flash-floods and prolonged droughts. Between these extreme events, there are small floods and droughts that are more common and more predictable. These smaller floods and droughts, along with the others mentioned before generate an extraordinarily complex temporal hydrological picture whose affects have been partly described by different authors, including those affecting the human population. The information compiled during nearly two decades by the group of Ecology of Continental Waters of the University of Murcia, about the effects of these events on rivers of the Segura River Basin, allows for elaborating a conceptual model about the function of several physical, physico-chemical, and biological parameters in rivers in the southwest, in particular and Mediterranean rivers in general.Las regiones mediterráneas son proclives a sufrir avenidas extraordinarias y sequías prolongadas. Entre estos eventos extremos, se sitúan las crecidas y estiajes más habituales y predecibles que, junto a los anteriores configuran un cuadro hidrológico temporal extraordinariamente complejo cuyos efectos han sido descritos parcialmente por diferentes autores, incluidos aquellos que afectan a la población humana. La información recogida durante casi dos décadas por el Grupo de Ecología de Aguas Continentales de la Universidad de Murcia, sobre los efectos de estos eventos en ríos de la Cuenca del Segura, permite elaborar un modelo conceptual sobre el funcionamiento de distintos parámetros físicos, físico-químicos y biológicos en ríos del sureste, en particular y mediterráneos, en general

Caracterización hidroquímica del complejo de humedales El Yali, Chile Central

Within the wetlands of the semiarid region of Central Chile, The Yali wetlands complex is the most important because it is protected as a RAMSAR's wetland. However, information about their hydro-geomorphological characteristics is almost non existent. In this study, the hydrochemical characteristics of 20 sampling sites, surveyed in July 2008 and which include coastal lagoons, estuaries, streams, saltmarshes, and reservoirs, were analyzed. The hydrochemical complexity stands out in relation to the water salinity (range = 320 − 58 800 μS/cm) and ionic composition of the studied wetlands in relation to the relative importance of the dominant water flow that sustains these wetlands. In relation to trophic state, most of the studied wetland systems are eutrophic or hypertrophic (medium values for total nitrogen = 4.7 mg/l; and soluble reactive phosphorus = 0.4 mg/l) due to the existing use of land (eucalyptus forests, cattle farms and wastewater inputs).Dentro de los humedales de la región semiárida Central de Chile, destaca el complejo denominado El Yali, por su condición de protección como Humedal RAMSAR, del que apenas existe información sobre sus características hidrogeomorfológicas. En este estudio se analiza la hidroquímica de 20 puntos de muestreo, realizados en julio de 2008, incluyendo lagunas, estuarios, esteros, salinas y embalses. Destaca su complejidad hidroquímica en relación con la salinidad (rango = 320 − 58 800 μS/cm) y el contenido iónico de los humedales estudiados en función de la importancia relativa del flujo de agua dominante. En cuanto al estado trófico, la mayoría de los sistemas estudiados son eutróficos o hipertróficos (valores medios de nitrógeno total =4.7 mg/l; y SRP (fósforo reactivo soluble) = 0.4 mg/l), como consecuencia del uso del territorio (plantaciones de eucaliptos, explotaciones ganaderas y vertidos orgánicos)

Spatial scale effects on taxonomic and biological trait diversity of aquatic macroinvertebrates in Mediterranean streams

We examined the effect of spatial scale on aquatic macroinvertebrate communities in Mediterranean streams from six basins distributed across southern Europe, including Spain, France, Italy, and Greece. We classified the studied streams according to their long-term aquatic regime into the three following types: (i) permanent (P), (ii) intermittent with summer pools (I-P), and (iii) intermittent with summer dry channels (I-D). For each stream type, we analyzed taxonomic and trait diversity, as well as the composition of the macroinvertebrate community, following a spatially nested design at three spatial scales of analysis: microhabitat (substratum patches), mesohabitat (pools vs. riffles), and macrohabitat (streams). In order to assess intrinsic seasonal variability in streams from the Mediterranean region, 20 Surber samples were taken from each stream according to meso- and microhabitat frequency in the wet and the dry season during 2010. Given the need for adaptation to specific hydrological conditions and the fact that microhabitats should encompass the niche requirements of particular taxa, we hypothesized that this spatial scale would have a greater influence on macroinvertebrate taxa composition and biological traits than the other two larger spatial scales in intermittent streams. We observed that patterns in the relative importance of variance components across hierarchical spatial scales changed with time because low flow or droughts altered both mesohabitat preva - lence and microhabitat composition. Our results confirm the importance of the microhabitat scale in I-P streams in the wet season but not in the dry one, when a loss of microhabitat diversity occurred. Stream-to-stream variability was more important in P and I-D streams. Our study also explored the relationships between traits and aquatic regimes. We found that aquatic macroinvertebrates inhabiting permanent streams exhibited traits related to the longer duration of life cycles in these rivers (e.g. large size of adult stages) and adaptations to flowing conditions (e.g. modes of aquatic dispersal), whereas aquatic macroinvertebrates inhabiting intermittent streams with summer pools had traits adapted to depositional conditions and ecological preferences for confined habitats (i.e. disconnected pools without flow). Finally, aquatic macroinvertebrates from intermittent streams with summer dry channels had adaptations conferring ability to survive periods with no water (e.g. modes of aerial dispersal, resistant stages). These results indicate that microhabitat conditions should not be neglected as they can play an important role in certain situations

A biological tool to assess flow connectivity in reference temporary streams from the Mediterranean Basin

Many streams in the Mediterranean Basin have temporary flow regimes. While timing for seasonal drought is predictable, they undergo strong inter-annual variability in flow intensity. This high hydrological variability and associated ecological responses challenge the ecological status assessment of temporary streams, particularly when setting reference conditions. This study examined the effects of flow connectivity in aquatic macroinvertebrates from seven reference temporary streams across the Mediterranean Basin where hydrological variability and flow conditions are well studied. We tested for the effect of flow cessation on two streamflow indices and on community composition, and, by performing random forest and classification tree analyses we identified important biological predictors for classifying the aquatic state either as flowing or disconnected pools. Flow cessation was critical for one of the streamflow indices studied and for community composition. Macroinvertebrate families found to be important for classifying the aquatic state were Hydrophilidae, Simuliidae, Hydropsychidae, Planorbiidae, Heptageniidae and Gerridae. For biological traits, trait categories associated to feeding habits, food, locomotion and substrate relation were the most important and provided more accurate predictions compared to taxonomy. A combination of selected metrics and associated thresholds based on the most important biological predictors (i.e. Bio-AS Tool) were proposed in order to assess the aquatic state in reference temporary streams, especially in the absence of hydrological data. Although further development is needed, the tool can be of particular interest for monitoring, restoration, and conservation purposes, representing an important step towards an adequate management of temporary rivers not only in the Mediterranean Basin but also in other regions vulnerable to the effects of climate change

Ensayo de una tipología de las cuencas mediterráneas del proyecto GUADALMED siguiendo las directrices de la Directiva Marco del Agua

RESUMEN Utilizando la propuesta de tipología de ríos de la Directiva Marco del Agua en su anexo 2 se realiza un ensayo tipológico de los puntos de muestreo del proyecto GUADALMED. Según el sistema A, se presentan 16 ecotipos, lo que se juzga poco adecuado para la gestión de los mismos y sin una base ecológica que lo justifique. De acuerdo con la selección previa hecha por los miembros del grupo GUADALMED para 5 de estos ecotipos no habría estaciones de referencia. Con algunas variables medidas en los puntos de muestreo y otras de tipo geológico e hidromorfológico, se realiza un ensayo tipológico usando el sistema B. El método implica un análisis de la correlación entre variables, un cluster de las estaciones utilizando el método K-means y un análisis discriminante de cuáles son las variables que distinguen estos grupos. El estudio da como resultado la caracterización de 6 ecotipos que sin embargo, a juicio de los miembros del proyecto GUADALMED, no recogen la variedad de tipos de ríos mediterráneos. Valorando cualitativamente parámetros no introducidos (por falta de datos) en el análisis K-means, se propone una tipología provisional en 9 grupos. Un análisis de las comunidades de macroinvertebrados (a nivel taxonómico de familia) revela un grado importante de coherencia entre las familias asociadas a cada tipo y sus preferencias ecológicas conocidas. ABSTRACT A preliminary analysis was conducted of the river types in the GUADALMED project using the river typology proposed in the Water Framework Directive (WFD) in its annex 2. Using System A, 16 different types were found, a number too high for water management purposes and such typology lacks a supportive ecological basis. For 5 of these 16 ecotypes, no reference stations exist. Reference stations were selected a priori in project GUADALMED for each of the 12 basins sampled. An ecotypological analysis was performed using System B of the WFD using several variables measured during the study, and other variables obtained from maps or data bases (e.g., geology). The method included the analysis of the calibration between variables, the clustering of stations by the K-means method and a discriminant analysis. The latter revealed which factors were distinctive of each group. Six ecotypes were established for the GUADALMED study sites. These, however, do not include all the mediterranean-type streams of the region. This is mainly due to the absence in the data base of some important features of streams in the data base such as temporality or the dependence of flow on the presence of karstic aquifers, attribute

Seminario de Economía Mexicana

Serie de ponencias referentes al Seminario de Economía Mexicana. Memorias del Seminario de Economía Mexicana de 199

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

Optimasi Portofolio Resiko Menggunakan Model Markowitz MVO Dikaitkan dengan Keterbatasan Manusia dalam Memprediksi Masa Depan dalam Perspektif Al-Qur`an

Risk portfolio on modern finance has become increasingly technical, requiring the use of sophisticated mathematical tools in both research and practice. Since companies cannot insure themselves completely against risk, as human incompetence in predicting the future precisely that written in Al-Quran surah Luqman verse 34, they have to manage it to yield an optimal portfolio. The objective here is to minimize the variance among all portfolios, or alternatively, to maximize expected return among all portfolios that has at least a certain expected return. Furthermore, this study focuses on optimizing risk portfolio so called Markowitz MVO (Mean-Variance Optimization). Some theoretical frameworks for analysis are arithmetic mean, geometric mean, variance, covariance, linear programming, and quadratic programming. Moreover, finding a minimum variance portfolio produces a convex quadratic programming, that is minimizing the objective function ðð¥with constraintsð ð 𥠥 ðandð´ð¥ = ð. The outcome of this research is the solution of optimal risk portofolio in some investments that could be finished smoothly using MATLAB R2007b software together with its graphic analysis