A weibull approach for improving climate model projections of tropical cyclone wind-speed distributions

This is the final version of the article. Available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Open Access ArticleReliable estimates of future changes in extreme weather phenomena, such as tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds, are critical for climate change impact assessments and the development of appropriate adaptation strategies. However, global and regional climate model outputs are often too coarse for direct use in these applications, with variables such as wind speed having truncated probability distributions compared to those of observations. This poses two problems: How canmodel-simulated variables best be adjusted to make themmore realistic? And how can such adjustments be used to make more reliable predictions of future changes in their distribution? This study investigates North Atlantic tropical cyclone maximum wind speeds from observations (1950- 2010) and regional climate model simulations (1995-2005 and 2045-55 at 12- and 36-km spatial resolutions). The wind speed distributions in these datasets are well represented by the Weibull distribution, albeit with different scale and shape parameters. A power-law transfer function is used to recalibrate the Weibull variables and obtain future projections of wind speeds. Two different strategies, bias correction and change factor, are tested by using 36-km model data to predict future 12-km model data (pseudo-observations). The strategies are also applied to the observations to obtain likely predictions of the future distributions of wind speeds. The strategies yield similar predictions of likely changes in the fraction of events within Saffir-Simpson categories-for example, an increase from 21% (1995-2005) to 27%-37% (2045-55) for category 3 or above events and an increase from 1.6% (1995- 2005) to 2.8%-9.8% (2045-55) for category 5 events. © 2014 American Meteorological Society.Acknowledgments. Support for this work was provided by theWillis Research Network, the Research Program to Secure Energy for America, NSF EASM Grant S1048841, and the NCARWeather and Climate Assessment Science Program. We thank Sherrie Fredrick for extracting data, and Cindy Bruyère, James Done, and Ben Youngman for productive discussions that enhanced this research. We also thank Dr. Adam Monahan and one anonymous reviewer for their insightful comments and suggestions

Acceptability and feasibility of peer assisted supervision and support for intervention practitioners: a Q-methodology evaluation

Evidence-based interventions often include quality improvement methods to support fidelity and improve client outcomes. Clinical supervision is promoted as an effective way of developing practitioner confidence and competence in delivery; however, supervision is often inconsistent and embedded in hierarchical line management structures that may limit the opportunity for reflective learning. The Peer Assisted Supervision and Support (PASS) supervision model uses peer relationships to promote the self-regulatory capacity of practitioners to improve intervention delivery. The aim of the present study was to assess the acceptability and feasibility of PASS amongst parenting intervention practitioners. A Q-methodology approach was used to generate data and 30 practitioners volunteered to participate in the study. Data were analyzed and interpreted using standard Q-methodology procedures and by-person factor analysis yielded three factors. There was consensus that PASS was acceptable. Participants shared the view that PASS facilitated an environment of support where negative aspects of interpersonal relationships that might develop in supervision were not evident. Two factors represented the viewpoint that PASS was also a feasible model of supervision. However, the third factor was comprised of practitioners who reported that PASS could be time consuming and difficult to fit into existing work demands. There were differences across the three factors in the extent to which practitioners considered PASS impacted on their intervention delivery. The findings highlight the importance of organizational mechanisms that support practitioner engagement in supervision

Congestive Heart Failure Leads to Prolongation of the PR Interval and Atrioventricular Junction Enlargement and Ion Channel Remodelling in the Rabbit.

Heart failure is a major killer worldwide. Atrioventricular conduction block is common in heart failure; it is associated with worse outcomes and can lead to syncope and bradycardic death. We examine the effect of heart failure on anatomical and ion channel remodelling in the rabbit atrioventricular junction (AVJ). Heart failure was induced in New Zealand rabbits by disruption of the aortic valve and banding of the abdominal aorta resulting in volume and pressure overload. Laser micro-dissection and real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) were employed to investigate the effects of heart failure on ion channel remodelling in four regions of the rabbit AVJ and in septal tissues. Investigation of the AVJ anatomy was performed using micro-computed tomography (micro-CT). Heart failure animals developed first degree heart block. Heart failure caused ventricular myocardial volume increase with a 35% elongation of the AVJ. There was downregulation of HCN1 and Cx43 mRNA transcripts across all regions and downregulation of Cav1.3 in the transitional tissue. Cx40 mRNA was significantly downregulated in the atrial septum and AVJ tissues but not in the ventricular septum. mRNA abundance for ANP, CLCN2 and Navβ1 was increased with heart failure; Nav1.1 was increased in the inferior nodal extension/compact node area. Heart failure in the rabbit leads to prolongation of the PR interval and this is accompanied by downregulation of HCN1, Cav1.3, Cx40 and Cx43 mRNAs and anatomical enlargement of the entire heart and AVJ

The temperature and chronology of heavy-element synthesis in low-mass stars

Roughly half of the heavy elements (atomic mass greater than that of iron) are believed to be synthesized in the late evolutionary stages of stars with masses between 0.8 and 8 solar masses. Deep inside the star, nuclei (mainly iron) capture neutrons and progressively build up (through the slow-neutron-capture process, or s-process) heavier elements that are subsequently brought to the stellar surface by convection. Two neutron sources, activated at distinct temperatures, have been proposed: 13C and 22Ne, each releasing one neutron per alpha-particle (4He) captured. To explain the measured stellar abundances, stellar evolution models invoking the 13C neutron source (which operates at temperatures of about one hundred million kelvin) are favoured. Isotopic ratios in primitive meteorites, however, reflecting nucleosynthesis in the previous generations of stars that contributed material to the Solar System, point to higher temperatures (more than three hundred million kelvin), requiring at least a late activation of 22Ne. Here we report a determination of the s-process temperature directly in evolved low-mass giant stars, using zirconium and niobium abundances, independently of stellar evolution models. The derived temperature supports 13C as the s-process neutron source. The radioactive pair 93Zr-93Nb used to estimate the s-process temperature also provides, together with the pair 99Tc-99Ru, chronometric information on the time elapsed since the start of the s-process, which we determine to be one million to three million years.Comment: 30 pages, 10 figure

Post-emergence selectivity of metribuzin to carrot.

The objective of this study was to evaluate the selectivity of the herbicide metribuzin to carrot plants as a function of genotype, dose, and plant growth stage at the time of application. Two experiments were carried out, one in a greenhouse and another in the field

Acceptability of a Positive Parenting Programme on a Mother and Baby Unit: Q-Methodology with Staff

The Baby Triple P Positive Parenting Programme, a new addition to the established Triple P programmes, is currently being considered for a trial in a Mother and Baby Unit with the aim of exploring its benefits to mothers presenting with severe mental illness. The aim of the current study was to investigate staff views of the acceptability and feasibility of a parenting programme such as the Baby Triple P Positive Parenting Programme in a Mother and Baby Unit. Q-methodology, using an 88-item Q-sort, was employed to explore the opinions of 16 staff working in a Mother and Baby Unit in the North West of England. Results obtained from the Q-sort analysis identified two distinct factors: (1) staff qualified acceptance and (2) systemic approach/systemic results. Preliminary findings indicate that staff perceived Baby Triple P to be an acceptable and feasible intervention for the Mother and Baby Unit setting and that mothers on the unit would be open and receptive to the programme. Further research is required to expand these findings and assess the potential for this type of intervention to be used more widely across a number of Mother and Baby Unit settings

A Locus on Chromosome 5 Is Associated with Dilated Cardiomyopathy in Doberman Pinschers

Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a heterogeneous group of heart diseases with a strong genetic background. Currently, many human DCM cases exist where no causative mutation can be identified. DCM also occurs with high prevalence in several large dog breeds. In the Doberman Pinscher a specific DCM form characterized by arrhythmias and/or echocardiographic changes has been intensively studied by veterinary cardiologists. We performed a genome-wide association study in Doberman Pinschers. Using 71 cases and 70 controls collected in Germany we identified a genome-wide significant association to DCM on chromosome 5. We validated the association in an independent cohort collected in the United Kingdom. There is no known DCM candidate gene under the association signal. Therefore, DCM in Doberman Pinschers offers the chance of identifying a novel DCM gene that might also be relevant for human health