Interpretable machine learning models for predicting with missing values

Machine learning models are often used in situations where model inputs are missing either during training or at the time of prediction. If missing values are not handled appropriately, they can lead to increased bias or to models that are not applicable in practice without imputing the values of the unobserved variables. However, the imputation of missing values is often inadequate and difficult to interpret for complex imputation functions. In this thesis, we focus on predictions in the presence of incomplete data at test time, using interpretable models that allow humans to understand the predictions. Interpretability is especially necessary when important decisions are at stake, such as in healthcare. First, we investigate, the situation where variables are missing in recurrent patterns and sample sizes are small per pattern. We propose SPSM that allows coefficient sharing between a main model and pattern submodels in order to make efficient use of data and to be independent on imputation. To enable interpretability, the model can be expressed as a short description introduced by sparsity. Then, we explore situations where missingness does not occur in patterns and suggest the sparse linear rule model MINTY that naturally trades off between interpretability and the goodness of fit while being sensitive to missing values at test time. To this end, we learn replacement variables, indicating which features in a rule can be alternatively used when the original feature was not measured, assuming some redundancy in the covariates. Our results have shown that the proposed interpretable models can be used for prediction with missing values, without depending on imputation. We conclude that more work can be done in evaluating interpretable machine learning models in the context of missing values at test time

Urban food strategies and plans: considerations on the assessment construction

Abstract In a context of growing attention to the issue of feeding the city, this article focuses on the role of the assessments guiding the processes of urban food policy and planning to reach Sustainable Food Security. The starting point is a collection of experiences dealing with some cities that in recent years have launched strategies for developing healthier and more sustainable food systems. Their analysis highlights the innovations in the construction of cognitive frameworks supporting food policies and planning, as well as the difficulties to explore the food phenomenon on the qualitative and quantitative level. Within a current research meant to address the food agenda in Venice, the authors take advantage from the case studies comparison to propose key themes and investigation methods a preliminary assessment of the existing food system. Considering the strong impact of the huge tourist flow that invests the city, daily, the foodservice sector is considered as the main challenging and strategical core-area for boosting impactful changes in the urban food system

Finding Early Farming Communities in southern Mozambique: Using Geophysical Surveys to examine potential new open-air sites

The arrival of Early Farming Communities (EFC) in Mozambique is traditionally defined by the appearance of the “Bantu package”, especially of the so-called Matola pottery at the beginning of the 1st millennium CE. Although many EFC sites are known in Mozambique and South Africa, little is known about their settlement structures. In the case of Mozambique, the well-known Matola, Zitundo and University Campus sites were discovered by chance. The Department of Archaeology and Anthropology (DAA) at the University Eduardo Mondlane has successfully conducted surveys in the Changalane Administrative Post (Namaacha District, Maputo province) for years, documenting new potential EFC and Stone Age sites. Together with the German Archaeological Institute and the University of Hamburg, geophysical surveys were carried out on four sites. The aim was to get an overview of the sites and to locate potential excavation areas such as waste or storage pits, furnaces or huts. Although the method is already of great importance in Europe and is used regularly, only few comparative studies from sub-Saharan Africa are known. Within this region in the southeast and the described context of the continent the method is applied for the first time. A verification of the results in the form of test excavations is planned in the near future.The arrival of Early Farming Communities (EFC) in Mozambique is traditionally defined by the appearance of the “Bantu package”, especially of the so-called Matola pottery at the beginning of the 1st millennium CE. Although many EFC sites are known in Mozambique and South Africa, little is known about their settlement structures. In the case of Mozambique, the well-known Matola, Zitundo and University Campus sites were discovered by chance. The Department of Archaeology and Anthropology (DAA) at the University Eduardo Mondlane has successfully conducted surveys in the Changalane Administrative Post (Namaacha District, Maputo province) for years, documenting new potential EFC and Stone Age sites. Together with the German Archaeological Institute and the University of Hamburg, geophysical surveys were carried out on four sites. The aim was to get an overview of the sites and to locate potential excavation areas such as waste or storage pits, furnaces or huts. Although the method is already of great importance in Europe and is used regularly, only few comparative studies from sub-Saharan Africa are known. Within this region in the southeast and the described context of the continent the method is applied for the first time. A verification of the results in the form of test excavations is planned in the near future.&nbsp

Available Pathways for Operationalizing Circular Economy into the Olive Oil Supply Chain: Mapping Evidence from a Scoping Literature Review

Circular economy (CE) is increasingly seen as a promising paradigm for transitioning agri-food systems towards more sustainable models of production and consumption, enabling virtuous and regenerative biological metabolisms based on strategies of eco-efficiency and eco-effectiveness. This contribution seeks to provide a theoretical and empirical framework for operationalizing the CE principles into the olive oil supply chain, that plays a central role in the agroecological systems of the Mediterranean region. A scoping literature review has been conducted in order to identify the available pathways so far explored by scholars for reshaping the olive oil supply chain from a circular perspective. The analyzed literature has been charted on the base of the circular pathway examined, and according to the supply chain subsystem(s) to which it refers. Results are discussed highlighting the main issues, the technology readiness level of the available pathways, the prevailing approaches and knowledge gaps. A synthetic evidence map is provided, framing visually the scrutinized pathways into the Ellen MacArthur Foundation’s CE ‘butterfly’ graph. The work is intended to be a valuable baseline for inquiring how circularity can be advanced in the specific supply chain of olive oil, and which are the strategic opportunities, as well as the barriers to overcome, in order to foster the transition

Biliary diseases in heart transplanted patients: a comparison between cyclosporine a versus tacrolimus-based immunosuppression

A cyclosporine (CsA)-based immunosuppression is associated with an increased incidence of cholelithiasis after heart transplantation. It is not known if tacrolimus (Tac) has comparable biliary side effects in humans

Predicting progression and cognitive decline in amyloid-positive patients with Alzheimer’s disease

Background: In Alzheimer’s disease, amyloid- β (A β) peptides aggregate in the lowering CSF amyloid levels - a key pathological hallmark of the disease. However, lowered CSF amyloid levels may also be present in cognitively unimpaired elderly individuals. Therefore, it is of great value to explain the variance in disease progression among patients with A β pathology. Methods: A cohort of n=2293 participants, of whom n=749 were A β positive, was selected from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database to study heterogeneity in disease progression for individuals with A β pathology. The analysis used baseline clinical variables including demographics, genetic markers, and neuropsychological data to predict how the cognitive ability and AD diagnosis of subjects progressed using statistical models and machine learning. Due to the relatively low prevalence of A β pathology, models fit only to A β-positive subjects were compared to models fit to an extended cohort including subjects without established A β pathology, adjusting for covariate differences between the cohorts. Results: A β pathology status was determined based on the A β42/A β40 ratio. The best predictive model of change in cognitive test scores for A β-positive subjects at the 2-year follow-up achieved an R2 score of 0.388 while the best model predicting adverse changes in diagnosis achieved a weighted F1 score of 0.791. A β-positive subjects declined faster on average than those without A β pathology, but the specific level of CSF A β was not predictive of progression rate. When predicting cognitive score change 4 years after baseline, the best model achieved an R2 score of 0.325 and it was found that fitting models to the extended cohort improved performance. Moreover, using all clinical variables outperformed the best model based only on a suite of cognitive test scores which achieved an R2 score of 0.228. Conclusion: Our analysis shows that CSF levels of A β are not strong predictors of the rate of cognitive decline in A β-positive subjects when adjusting for other variables. Baseline assessments of cognitive function accounts for the majority of variance explained in the prediction of 2-year decline but is insufficient for achieving optimal results in longer-term predictions. Predicting changes both in cognitive test scores and in diagnosis provides multiple perspectives of the progression of potential AD subjects

Phosphorylation-dependent differences in CXCR4-LASP1-AKT1 Interaction between breast cancer and chronic myeloid leukemia

The serine/threonine protein kinase AKT1 is a downstream target of the chemokine receptor4 (CXCR4), and both proteins play a central role in the modulation of diverse cellular processes,including proliferation and cell survival. While in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) the CXCR4is downregulated, thereby promoting the mobilization of progenitor cells into blood, the receptoris highly expressed in breast cancer cells, favoring the migratory capacity of these cells. Recently,the LIM and SH3 domain protein 1 (LASP1) has been described as a novel CXCR4 binding partnerand as a promoter of the PI3K/AKT pathway. In this study, we uncovered a direct binding ofLASP1, phosphorylated at S146, to both CXCR4 and AKT1, as shown by immunoprecipitation assays,pull-down experiments, and immunohistochemistry data. In contrast, phosphorylation of LASP1at Y171 abrogated these interactions, suggesting that both LASP1 phospho-forms interact. Finally,findings demonstrating different phosphorylation patterns of LASP1 in breast cancer and chronicmyeloid leukemia may have implications for CXCR4 function and tyrosine kinase inhibitor treatment

Toward the circular economy into the olive oil supply chain: A case study analysis of a vertically integrated firm

While the paradigm of circular economy (CE) and the processes of socio-technical transition have been broadly investigated at the theoretical level, understanding how the transition toward circular models can be implemented in practice is still limited. This contribution aims to provide in-depth and evidence-based insights on an emerging pathway for the operability of CE into the olive oil supply chain. A case study from the Apulia region (the leading olive oil producing area in Italy) is presented to show how an existing business model can be transformed into a circular one, and to what extent it can be replicated. The study focuses on a vertically integrated firm, in which a new industrial process has been introduced to manage olive pomace, which is one of the most important by-products obtained from olive oil extraction. The empirical analysis is built on the Circular Business Model Canvas (CBMC), which is conceived as a suitable theoretical and methodological tool to speed up the transition process toward CE at a micro-economic level. This analytical framework allows us to identify the interplaying elements that the firm combines to capture, create, and deliver value, as well as the relationships with the broader economic system. Particular attention is paid to two distinctive components of CBMC: material loops and adoption factors. Also, internal and external factors affecting the adoption of the new circular business model have been discussed by separating drivers and barriers of the transition process

Multimodal behavioral treatment of migraine: An Internet-administered, randomized, controlled trial

Introduction. Multimodal approaches in behavioral treatment have gained recent interest, with proven efficacy for migraine. The utility of the Internet has been demonstrated for behavioral treatment of headache disorders, but not specifically for migraine. The aim of the study was to develop and evaluate an Internet-based multimodal behavior treatment (MBT) program for migraine and to test hand massage treatment as an adjunct. Methods. Eighty-three adults, 58 women and 25 men, with at least two migraine attacks a month were recruited via advertisements. An MBT program aiming at improvements in life-style and stress coping was developed for this study and, together with a diary, adapted for use over the Internet. Participants were randomized to MBT with and without hand massage and to a control group, and were followed for 11 months. Questionnaires addressing issues of quality of life (PQ23) and depressive symptoms (MADRS-S) were used. Results. A 50%, or greater, reduction in migraine frequency was found in 40% and 42% of participants of the two groups receiving MBT (with and without hand massage, respectively), who statistically were significantly more improved than participants in the control group. No effect of hand massage was detected, and gender did not show any independent contribution to the effect in a multivariate analysis. Conclusions. MBT administered over the Internet appears feasible and effective in the treatment of migraine, but no effect of hand massage was found. For increased knowledge on long-term effects and the modes of action of the present MBT program, further studies are needed