Transfer learning approach for financial applications

Artificial neural networks learn how to solve new problems through a computationally intense and time consuming process. One way to reduce the amount of time required is to inject preexisting knowledge into the network. To make use of past knowledge, we can take advantage of techniques that transfer the knowledge learned from one task, and reuse it on another (sometimes unrelated) task. In this paper we propose a novel selective breeding technique that extends the transfer learning with behavioural genetics approach proposed by Kohli, Magoulas and Thomas (2013), and evaluate its performance on financial data. Numerical evidence demonstrates the credibility of the new approach. We provide insights on the operation of transfer learning and highlight the benefits of using behavioural principles and selective breeding when tackling a set of diverse financial applications problems

The Precision of the Human Hand: Variability in Pinch Strength and Manual Dexterity

Changes in hand morphology throughout human evolution have facilitated the use of forceful pad-to-pad precision grips, contributing to the development of fine motor movement and dexterous manipulation typical of modern humans. Today, variation in human hand function may be affected by demographic and/or lifestyle factors, but these remain largely unexplored. We measured pinch grip strength and dexterity in a heterogeneous cross-sectional sample of human participants (n = 556) to test for the potential effects of sex, age, hand asymmetries, hand morphology, and frequently practiced manual activities across the lifespan. We found a significant effect of sex on pinch strength, dexterity, and different directional asymmetries, with the practice of manual musical instruments, significantly increasing female dexterity for both hands. Males and females with wider hands were also stronger, but not more precise, than those with longer hands, while the thumb-index ratio had no effect. Hand dominance asymmetry further had a significant effect on dexterity but not on pinch strength. These results indicate that different patterns of hand asymmetries and hand function are influenced in part by life experiences, improving our understanding of the link between hand form and function and offering a referential context for interpreting the evolution of human dexterity

Get a Grip: Variation in Human Hand Grip Strength and Implications for Human Evolution

Although hand grip strength is critical to the daily lives of humans and our arboreal great ape relatives, the human hand has changed in form and function throughout our evolution due to terrestrial bipedalism, tool use, and directional asymmetry (DA) such as handedness. Here we investigate how hand form and function interact in modern humans to gain an insight into our evolutionary past. We measured grip strength in a heterogeneous, cross-sectional sample of human participants (n = 662, 17 to 83 years old) to test the potential effects of age, sex, asymmetry (hand dominance and handedness), hand shape, occupation, and practice of sports and musical instruments that involve the hand(s). We found a significant effect of sex and hand dominance on grip strength, but not of handedness, while hand shape and age had a greater influence on female grip strength. Females were significantly weaker with age, but grip strength in females with large hands was less affected than those with long hands. Frequent engagement in hand sports significantly increased grip strength in the non-dominant hand in both sexes, while only males showed a significant effect of occupation, indicating different patterns of hand dominance asymmetries and hand function. These results improve our understanding of the link between form and function in both hands and offer an insight into the evolution of human laterality and dexterity

Motor-sensory biases are associated with cognitive and social abilities in humans

Across vertebrates, adaptive behaviors, like feeding and avoiding predators, are linked to lateralized brain function. The presence of the behavioral manifestations of these biases are associated with increased task success. Additionally, when an individual’s direction of bias aligns with the majority of the population, it is linked to social advantages. However, it remains unclear if behavioral biases in humans correlate with the same advantages. This large-scale study (N = 313–1661, analyses dependent) examines whether the strength and alignment of behavioral biases associate with cognitive and social benefits respectively in humans. To remain aligned with the animal literature, we evaluate motor-sensory biases linked to motor-sequencing and emotion detection to assess lateralization. Results reveal that moderate hand lateralization is positively associated with task success and task success is, in turn, associated with language fluency, possibly representing a cascade effect. Additionally, like other vertebrates, the majority of our human sample possess a ‘standard’ laterality profile (right hand bias, left visual bias). A ‘reversed’ profile is rare by comparison, and associates higher self-reported social difficulties and increased rate of autism and/or attention deficit hyperactivity disorder. We highlight the importance of employing a comparative theoretical framing to illuminate how and why different laterization profiles associate with diverging social and cognitive phenotypes

Utilising symptom dimensions with diagnostic categories improves prediction of time to first remission in first-episode psychosis

There has been much recent debate concerning the relative clinical utility of symptom dimensions versus conventional diagnostic categories in patients with psychosis. We investigated whether symptom dimensions rated at presentation for first-episode psychosis (FEP) better predicted time to first remission than categorical diagnosis over a four-year follow-up. The sample comprised 193 FEP patients aged 18–65 years who presented to psychiatric services in South London, UK, between 2006 and 2010. Psychopathology was assessed at baseline with the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale and five symptom dimensions were derived using Wallwork/Fortgang's model; baseline diagnoses were grouped using DSM-IV codes. Time to start of first remission was ascertained from clinical records. The Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) was used to find the best fitting accelerated failure time model of dimensions, diagnoses and time to first remission. Sixty percent of patients remitted over the four years following first presentation to psychiatric services, and the average time to start of first remission was 18.3 weeks (SD = 26.0, median = 8). The positive (BIC = 166.26), excited (BIC = 167.30) and disorganised/concrete (BIC = 168.77) symptom dimensions, and a diagnosis of schizophrenia (BIC = 166.91) predicted time to first remission. However, a combination of the DSM-IV diagnosis of schizophrenia with all five symptom dimensions led to the best fitting model (BIC = 164.35). Combining categorical diagnosis with symptom dimension scores in FEP patients improved the accuracy of predicting time to first remission. Thus our data suggest that the decision to consign symptom dimensions to an annexe in DSM-5 should be reconsidered at the earliest opportunity

The cloudUPDRS app: a medical device for the clinical assessment of Parkinson's Disease

Parkinson's Disease is a neurological condition distinguished by characteristic motor symptoms including tremor and slowness of movement. To enable the frequent assessment of PD patients, this paper introduces the cloudUPDRS app, a Class I medical device that is an active transient non-invasive instrument, certified by the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency in the UK. The app follows closely Part III of the Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale which is the most commonly used protocol in the clinical study of PD; can be used by patients and their carers at home or in the community unsupervised; and, requires the user to perform a sequence of iterated movements which are recorded by the phone sensors. The cloudUPDRS system addresses two key challenges towards meeting essential consistency and efficiency requirements, namely: (i) How to ensure high-quality data collection especially considering the unsupervised nature of the test, in particular, how to achieve firm user adherence to the prescribed movements; and (ii) How to reduce test duration from approximately 25 minutes typically required by an experienced patient, to below 4 minutes, a threshold identified as critical to obtain significant improvements in clinical compliance. To address the former, we combine a bespoke design of the user experience tailored so as to constrain context, with a deep learning approach based on Recurrent Convolutional Neural Networks, to identify failures to follow the movement protocol. We address the latter by developing a machine learning approach to personalize assessments by selecting those elements of the test that most closely match individual symptom profiles and thus offer the highest inferential power, hence closely estimating the patent's overall score

The CloudUPDRS smartphone software in Parkinson’s study: cross-validation against blinded human raters

Digital assessments of motor severity could improve the sensitivity of clinical trials and personalise treatment in Parkinson’s disease (PD) but have yet to be widely adopted. Their ability to capture individual change across the heterogeneous motor presentations typical of PD remains inadequately tested against current clinical reference standards. We conducted a prospective, dual-site, crossover-randomised study to determine the ability of a 16-item smartphone-based assessment (the index test) to predict subitems from the Movement Disorder Society-Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale part III (MDS-UPDRS III) as assessed by three blinded clinical raters (the reference-standard). We analysed data from 60 subjects (990 smartphone tests, 2628 blinded video MDS-UPDRS III subitem ratings). Subject-level predictive performance was quantified as the leave-one-subject-out cross-validation (LOSO-CV) accuracy. A pre-specified analysis classified 70.3% (SEM 5.9%) of subjects into a similar category to any of three blinded clinical raters and was better than random (36.7%; SEM 4.3%) classification. Post hoc optimisation of classifier and feature selection improved performance further (78.7%, SEM 5.1%), although individual subtests were variable (range 53.2–97.0%). Smartphone-based measures of motor severity have predictive value at the subject level. Future studies should similarly mitigate against subjective and feature selection biases and assess performance across a range of motor features as part of a broader strategy to avoid overly optimistic performance estimates

Extended Thromboprophylaxis with Betrixaban in Acutely Ill Medical Patients

Background Patients with acute medical illnesses are at prolonged risk for venous thrombosis. However, the appropriate duration of thromboprophylaxis remains unknown. Methods Patients who were hospitalized for acute medical illnesses were randomly assigned to receive subcutaneous enoxaparin (at a dose of 40 mg once daily) for 10±4 days plus oral betrixaban placebo for 35 to 42 days or subcutaneous enoxaparin placebo for 10±4 days plus oral betrixaban (at a dose of 80 mg once daily) for 35 to 42 days. We performed sequential analyses in three prespecified, progressively inclusive cohorts: patients with an elevated d-dimer level (cohort 1), patients with an elevated d-dimer level or an age of at least 75 years (cohort 2), and all the enrolled patients (overall population cohort). The statistical analysis plan specified that if the between-group difference in any analysis in this sequence was not significant, the other analyses would be considered exploratory. The primary efficacy outcome was a composite of asymptomatic proximal deep-vein thrombosis and symptomatic venous thromboembolism. The principal safety outcome was major bleeding. Results A total of 7513 patients underwent randomization. In cohort 1, the primary efficacy outcome occurred in 6.9% of patients receiving betrixaban and 8.5% receiving enoxaparin (relative risk in the betrixaban group, 0.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.65 to 1.00; P=0.054). The rates were 5.6% and 7.1%, respectively (relative risk, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.66 to 0.98; P=0.03) in cohort 2 and 5.3% and 7.0% (relative risk, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63 to 0.92; P=0.006) in the overall population. (The last two analyses were considered to be exploratory owing to the result in cohort 1.) In the overall population, major bleeding occurred in 0.7% of the betrixaban group and 0.6% of the enoxaparin group (relative risk, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.67 to 2.12; P=0.55). Conclusions Among acutely ill medical patients with an elevated d-dimer level, there was no significant difference between extended-duration betrixaban and a standard regimen of enoxaparin in the prespecified primary efficacy outcome. However, prespecified exploratory analyses provided evidence suggesting a benefit for betrixaban in the two larger cohorts. (Funded by Portola Pharmaceuticals; APEX ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01583218. opens in new tab.

Baseline characteristics of patients in the reduction of events with darbepoetin alfa in heart failure trial (RED-HF)

<p>Aims: This report describes the baseline characteristics of patients in the Reduction of Events with Darbepoetin alfa in Heart Failure trial (RED-HF) which is testing the hypothesis that anaemia correction with darbepoetin alfa will reduce the composite endpoint of death from any cause or hospital admission for worsening heart failure, and improve other outcomes.</p> <p>Methods and results: Key demographic, clinical, and laboratory findings, along with baseline treatment, are reported and compared with those of patients in other recent clinical trials in heart failure. Compared with other recent trials, RED-HF enrolled more elderly [mean age 70 (SD 11.4) years], female (41%), and black (9%) patients. RED-HF patients more often had diabetes (46%) and renal impairment (72% had an estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/min/1.73 m2). Patients in RED-HF had heart failure of longer duration [5.3 (5.4) years], worse NYHA class (35% II, 63% III, and 2% IV), and more signs of congestion. Mean EF was 30% (6.8%). RED-HF patients were well treated at randomization, and pharmacological therapy at baseline was broadly similar to that of other recent trials, taking account of study-specific inclusion/exclusion criteria. Median (interquartile range) haemoglobin at baseline was 112 (106–117) g/L.</p> <p>Conclusion: The anaemic patients enrolled in RED-HF were older, moderately to markedly symptomatic, and had extensive co-morbidity.</p&gt

Evacetrapib and Cardiovascular Outcomes in High-Risk Vascular Disease

BACKGROUND: The cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor evacetrapib substantially raises the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol level, reduces the low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol level, and enhances cellular cholesterol efflux capacity. We sought to determine the effect of evacetrapib on major adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with high-risk vascular disease. METHODS: In a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled phase 3 trial, we enrolled 12,092 patients who had at least one of the following conditions: an acute coronary syndrome within the previous 30 to 365 days, cerebrovascular atherosclerotic disease, peripheral vascular arterial disease, or diabetes mellitus with coronary artery disease. Patients were randomly assigned to receive either evacetrapib at a dose of 130 mg or matching placebo, administered daily, in addition to standard medical therapy. The primary efficacy end point was the first occurrence of any component of the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, stroke, coronary revascularization, or hospitalization for unstable angina. RESULTS: At 3 months, a 31.1% decrease in the mean LDL cholesterol level was observed with evacetrapib versus a 6.0% increase with placebo, and a 133.2% increase in the mean HDL cholesterol level was seen with evacetrapib versus a 1.6% increase with placebo. After 1363 of the planned 1670 primary end-point events had occurred, the data and safety monitoring board recommended that the trial be terminated early because of a lack of efficacy. After a median of 26 months of evacetrapib or placebo, a primary end-point event occurred in 12.9% of the patients in the evacetrapib group and in 12.8% of those in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 1.01; 95% confidence interval, 0.91 to 1.11; P=0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Although the cholesteryl ester transfer protein inhibitor evacetrapib had favorable effects on established lipid biomarkers, treatment with evacetrapib did not result in a lower rate of cardiovascular events than placebo among patients with high-risk vascular disease. (Funded by Eli Lilly; ACCELERATE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01687998 .)