A comprehensive analysis of autocorrelation and bias in home range estimation

Home range estimation is routine practice in ecological research. While advances in animal tracking technology have increased our capacity to collect data to support home range analysis, these same advances have also resulted in increasingly autocorrelated data. Consequently, the question of which home range estimator to use on modern, highly autocorrelated tracking data remains open. This question is particularly relevant given that most estimators assume independently sampled data. Here, we provide a comprehensive evaluation of the effects of autocorrelation on home range estimation. We base our study on an extensive data set of GPS locations from 369 individuals representing 27 species distributed across five continents. We first assemble a broad array of home range estimators, including Kernel Density Estimation (KDE) with four bandwidth optimizers (Gaussian reference function, autocorrelated-Gaussian reference function [AKDE], Silverman´s rule of thumb, and least squares cross-validation), Minimum Convex Polygon, and Local Convex Hull methods. Notably, all of these estimators except AKDE assume independent and identically distributed (IID) data. We then employ half-sample cross-validation to objectively quantify estimator performance, and the recently introduced effective sample size for home range area estimation ((Formula presented.)) to quantify the information content of each data set. We found that AKDE 95% area estimates were larger than conventional IID-based estimates by a mean factor of 2. The median number of cross-validated locations included in the hold-out sets by AKDE 95% (or 50%) estimates was 95.3% (or 50.1%), confirming the larger AKDE ranges were appropriately selective at the specified quantile. Conversely, conventional estimates exhibited negative bias that increased with decreasing (Formula presented.). To contextualize our empirical results, we performed a detailed simulation study to tease apart how sampling frequency, sampling duration, and the focal animal´s movement conspire to affect range estimates. Paralleling our empirical results, the simulation study demonstrated that AKDE was generally more accurate than conventional methods, particularly for small (Formula presented.). While 72% of the 369 empirical data sets had >1,000 total observations, only 4% had an (Formula presented.) >1,000, where 30% had an (Formula presented.) <30. In this frequently encountered scenario of small (Formula presented.), AKDE was the only estimator capable of producing an accurate home range estimate on autocorrelated data.Fil: Noonan, Michael J.. National Zoological Park; Estados Unidos. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Tucker, Marlee A.. Senckenberg Gesellschaft Für Naturforschung; . Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Fleming, Christen H.. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos. National Zoological Park; Estados UnidosFil: Akre, Thomas S.. National Zoological Park; Estados UnidosFil: Alberts, Susan C.. University of Duke; Estados UnidosFil: Ali, Abdullahi H.. Hirola Conservation Programme. Garissa; KeniaFil: Altmann, Jeanne. University of Princeton; Estados UnidosFil: Antunes, Pamela Castro. Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul; BrasilFil: Belant, Jerrold L.. State University of New York; Estados UnidosFil: Beyer, Dean. Universitat Phillips; AlemaniaFil: Blaum, Niels. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Böhning Gaese, Katrin. Senckenberg Gesellschaft Für Naturforschung; Alemania. Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Cullen Jr., Laury. Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas; BrasilFil: de Paula, Rogerio Cunha. National Research Center For Carnivores Conservation; BrasilFil: Dekker, Jasja. Jasja Dekker Dierecologie; Países BajosFil: Drescher Lehman, Jonathan. George Mason University; Estados Unidos. National Zoological Park; Estados UnidosFil: Farwig, Nina. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Fichtel, Claudia. German Primate Center; AlemaniaFil: Fischer, Christina. Universitat Technical Zu Munich; AlemaniaFil: Ford, Adam T.. University of British Columbia; CanadáFil: Goheen, Jacob R.. University of Wyoming; Estados UnidosFil: Janssen, René. Bionet Natuuronderzoek; Países BajosFil: Jeltsch, Florian. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Kauffman, Matthew. University Of Wyoming; Estados UnidosFil: Kappeler, Peter M.. German Primate Center; AlemaniaFil: Koch, Flávia. German Primate Center; AlemaniaFil: LaPoint, Scott. Max Planck Institute für Ornithologie; Alemania. Columbia University; Estados UnidosFil: Markham, A. Catherine. Stony Brook University; Estados UnidosFil: Medici, Emilia Patricia. Instituto de Pesquisas Ecológicas (IPE) ; BrasilFil: Morato, Ronaldo G.. Institute For Conservation of The Neotropical Carnivores; Brasil. National Research Center For Carnivores Conservation; BrasilFil: Nathan, Ran. The Hebrew University of Jerusalem; IsraelFil: Oliveira Santos, Luiz Gustavo R.. Universidade Federal do Mato Grosso do Sul; BrasilFil: Olson, Kirk A.. Wildlife Conservation Society; Estados Unidos. National Zoological Park; Estados UnidosFil: Patterson, Bruce. Field Museum of National History; Estados UnidosFil: Paviolo, Agustin Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazú | Universidad Nacional de Misiones. Instituto de Biología Subtropical. Instituto de Biología Subtropical - Nodo Puerto Iguazú; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Nordeste; ArgentinaFil: Ramalho, Emiliano Esterci. Institute For Conservation of The Neotropical Carnivores; Brasil. Instituto de Desenvolvimento Sustentavel Mamirauá; BrasilFil: Rösner, Sascha. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Schabo, Dana G.. Michigan State University; Estados UnidosFil: Selva, Nuria. Institute of Nature Conservation of The Polish Academy of Sciences; PoloniaFil: Sergiel, Agnieszka. Institute of Nature Conservation of The Polish Academy of Sciences; PoloniaFil: Xavier da Silva, Marina. Parque Nacional do Iguaçu; BrasilFil: Spiegel, Orr. Universitat Tel Aviv; IsraelFil: Thompson, Peter. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Ullmann, Wiebke. Universitat Potsdam; AlemaniaFil: Ziḝba, Filip. Tatra National Park; PoloniaFil: Zwijacz Kozica, Tomasz. Tatra National Park; PoloniaFil: Fagan, William F.. University of Maryland; Estados UnidosFil: Mueller, Thomas. Senckenberg Gesellschaft Für Naturforschung; . Goethe Universitat Frankfurt; AlemaniaFil: Calabrese, Justin M.. National Zoological Park; Estados Unidos. University of Maryland; Estados Unido

Moving in the anthropocene: global reductions in terrestrial mammalian movements

Animal movement is fundamental for ecosystem functioning and species survival, yet the effects of the anthropogenic footprint on animal movements have not been estimated across species. Using a unique GPS-tracking database of 803 individuals across 57 species, we found that movements of mammals in areas with a comparatively high human footprint were on average one-half to one-third the extent of their movements in areas with a low human footprint. We attribute this reduction to behavioral changes of individual animals and to the exclusion of species with long-range movements from areas with higher human impact. Global loss of vagility alters a key ecological trait of animals that affects not only population persistence but also ecosystem processes such as predator-prey interactions, nutrient cycling, and disease transmission

The City as Subject and Stage: Dance and the Formation of Tel Aviv

This article investigates the impact of dance on the development of Tel Aviv during the British Mandate of Palestine. It shows how theatrical, salon, and folk dance forms shaped the culture as well as the physical space of the burgeoning city, and how national ideas were encoded into this nexus. The city served as both stage and subject of dancing and choreographic activity

Modelling mass accumulation rates and 210Pb rain rates in the Skagerrak: lateral sediment transport dominates the sediment input

Sediment fluxes to the seafloor govern the fate of elements and compounds in the ocean and serve as a prerequisite for research on elemental cycling, benthic processes and sediment management strategies. To quantify these fluxes over seafloor areas, it is necessary to scale up sediment mass accumulation rates (MAR) obtained from multiple sample stations. Conventional methods for spatial upscaling involve averaging of data or spatial interpolation. However, these approaches may not be sufficiently precise to account for spatial variations of MAR, leading to poorly constrained regional sediment budgets. Here, we utilize a machine learning approach to scale up porosity and 210 Pb data from 145 and 65 stations, respectively, in the Skagerrak. The models predict the spatial distributions by considering several predictor variables that are assumed to control porosity and 210 Pb rain rates. The spatial distribution of MAR is based on the predicted porosity and existing sedimentation rate data. Our findings reveal highest MAR and 210 Pb rain rates to occur in two parallel belt structures that align with the general circulation pattern in the Skagerrak. While high 210 Pb rain rates occur in intermediate water depths, the belt of high MAR is situated closer to the coastlines due to lower porosities at shallow water depths. Based on the spatial distributions, we calculate a total MAR of 34.7 Mt yr -1 and a 210 Pb rain rate of 4.7 · 10 14 dpm yr -1 . By comparing atmospheric to total 210 Pb rain rates, we further estimate that 24% of the 210 Pb originates from the local atmospheric input, with the remaining 76% being transported laterally into the Skagerrak. The updated MAR in the Skagerrak is combined with literature data on other major sediment sources and sinks to present a tentative sediment budget for the North Sea, which reveals an imbalance with sediment outputs exceeding the inputs. Substantial uncertainties in the revised Skagerrak MAR and the literature data might close this imbalance. However, we further hypothesize that previous estimates of suspended sediment inputs into the North Sea might have been underestimated, considering recently revised and elevated estimates on coastal erosion rates in the surrounding region of the North Sea

Temporal evolution of stable water isotopologues in cloud droplets during HCCT-2010

In this work, we present the first study resolving the temporal evolution ofδ2H andδ18O values in cloud droplets during the course of 13 different cloud events. The cloudevents were probed on a 937 m high mountain chain in Germany in the frameworkof the Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010 campaign (HCCT-2010) in September and October 2010.δvalues of cloud droplets ranged from−77hto−15h(δ2H) and from−12.1hto−3.9h(δ18O) over the whole campaign. The cloud water line of the mea-suredδvalues wasδ2H=7.8×δ18O+13×10−3which is of similar slope but with higherdeuterium excess (d-excess) than Central European Meteoric Water Lines. While sea-sonality was reflected in decreasingδvalues towards the colder season, d-excess of cloud samples was an indicator of air mass origin: polar air masses had a higher d-excess than Mediterranean air masses. The variations inδvalues during one cloudevent could either result from changes in meteorological conditions during condensa-tion or from variations inδvalues of the water vapor feeding the cloud. To test whichof both aspect dominated during the measured cloud events, we modeled the variation inδvalues in cloud water using a closed box model. We could show that the varia-tion inδvalues of two cloud events was mainly due to changes in local temperatureconditions. For the other eleven cloud events the variation was most likely caused bychanges in the isotopic composition of the advected and entrained vapor. Frontal pas-sages led to the highest gradients both inδ2H (≈6hper hour) andδ18O (≈0.6hperhour) during two of the latter cloud events. Moreover, a detailed trajectory analysis forthe two longest cloud events revealed that variations in the entrained vapor were mostlikely related to rain out or changes in relative humidity and temperature at the moisturesource region or both. This study illustrates the sensitivity of stable isotope compositionof cloud water to changes in large scale air mass propertiesISSN:1680-7375ISSN:1680-736

Temporal evolution of stable water isotopologues in cloud droplets in a hill cap cloud in central Europe (HCCT-2010)

In this work, we present the first study resolving the temporal evolution of δ2H and δ18O values in cloud droplets during 13 different cloud events. The cloud events were probed on a 937 m high mountain chain in Germany in the framework of the Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia 2010 campaign (HCCT-2010) in September and October 2010. The δ values of cloud droplets ranged from −77‰ to −15‰ (δ2H) and from −12.1‰ to −3.9‰ (δ18O) over the whole campaign. The cloud water line of the measured δ values was δ2H=7.8×δ18O+13×10−3, which is of similar slope, but with higher deuterium excess than other Central European Meteoric Water Lines. Decreasing δ values in the course of the campaign agree with seasonal trends observed in rain in central Europe. The deuterium excess was higher in clouds developing after recent precipitation revealing episodes of regional moisture recycling. The variations in δ values during one cloud event could either result from changes in meteorological conditions during condensation or from variations in the δ values of the water vapor feeding the cloud. To test which of both aspects dominated during the investigated cloud events, we modeled the variation in δ values in cloud water using a closed box model. We could show that the variation in δ values of two cloud events was mainly due to changes in local temperature conditions. For the other eleven cloud events, the variation was most likely caused by changes in the isotopic composition of the advected and entrained vapor. Frontal passages during two of the latter cloud events led to the strongest temporal changes in both δ2H (≈ 6‰ per hour) and δ18O (≈ 0.6‰ per hour). Moreover, a detailed trajectory analysis for the two longest cloud events revealed that variations in the entrained vapor were most likely related to rain out or changes in relative humidity and temperature at the moisture source region or both. This study illustrates the sensitivity of stable isotope composition of cloud water to changes in large scale air mass properties and regional recycling of moisture.ISSN:1680-7375ISSN:1680-736

Spatial distributions of porosity, 210Pb rain rates and mass accumulation rates in the Skagerrak

This dataset includes Geotiff. files for the spatial distribution of porosity, 210Pb rain rates and mass accumulation rates in the Skagerrak at a 500m x 500m resolution.</p

DataSheet_1_Modelling mass accumulation rates and 210Pb rain rates in the Skagerrak: lateral sediment transport dominates the sediment input.docx

Sediment fluxes to the seafloor govern the fate of elements and compounds in the ocean and serve as a prerequisite for research on elemental cycling, benthic processes and sediment management strategies. To quantify these fluxes over seafloor areas, it is necessary to scale up sediment mass accumulation rates (MAR) obtained from multiple sample stations. Conventional methods for spatial upscaling involve averaging of data or spatial interpolation. However, these approaches may not be sufficiently precise to account for spatial variations of MAR, leading to poorly constrained regional sediment budgets. Here, we utilize a machine learning approach to scale up porosity and 210Pb data from 145 and 65 stations, respectively, in the Skagerrak. The models predict the spatial distributions by considering several predictor variables that are assumed to control porosity and 210Pb rain rates. The spatial distribution of MAR is based on the predicted porosity and existing sedimentation rate data. Our findings reveal highest MAR and 210Pb rain rates to occur in two parallel belt structures that align with the general circulation pattern in the Skagerrak. While high 210Pb rain rates occur in intermediate water depths, the belt of high MAR is situated closer to the coastlines due to lower porosities at shallow water depths. Based on the spatial distributions, we calculate a total MAR of 34.7 Mt yr-1 and a 210Pb rain rate of 4.7 · 1014 dpm yr-1. By comparing atmospheric to total 210Pb rain rates, we further estimate that 24% of the 210Pb originates from the local atmospheric input, with the remaining 76% being transported laterally into the Skagerrak. The updated MAR in the Skagerrak is combined with literature data on other major sediment sources and sinks to present a tentative sediment budget for the North Sea, which reveals an imbalance with sediment outputs exceeding the inputs. Substantial uncertainties in the revised Skagerrak MAR and the literature data might close this imbalance. However, we further hypothesize that previous estimates of suspended sediment inputs into the North Sea might have been underestimated, considering recently revised and elevated estimates on coastal erosion rates in the surrounding region of the North Sea.</p