The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010-19 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. Methods The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk-outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. Findings Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4.45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4.01-4.94) deaths and 105 million (95.0-116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44.4% (41.3-48.4) of all cancer deaths and 42.0% (39.1-45.6) of all DALYs. There were 2.88 million (2.60-3.18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50.6% [47.8-54.1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1.58 million (1.36-1.84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36.3% [32.5-41.3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20.4% (12.6-28.4) and DALYs by 16.8% (8.8-25.0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34.7% [27.9-42.8] and 33.3% [25.8-42.0]). Interpretation The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden. Copyright (C) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.Peer reviewe

Cancer Incidence, Mortality, Years of Life Lost, Years Lived With Disability, and Disability-Adjusted Life Years for 29 Cancer Groups From 2010 to 2019: A Systematic Analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 (GBD 2019) provided systematic estimates of incidence, morbidity, and mortality to inform local and international efforts toward reducing cancer burden. To estimate cancer burden and trends globally for 204 countries and territories and by Sociodemographic Index (SDI) quintiles from 2010 to 2019. The GBD 2019 estimation methods were used to describe cancer incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in 2019 and over the past decade. Estimates are also provided by quintiles of the SDI, a composite measure of educational attainment, income per capita, and total fertility rate for those younger than 25 years. Estimates include 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). In 2019, there were an estimated 23.6 million (95% UI, 22.2-24.9 million) new cancer cases (17.2 million when excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 10.0 million (95% UI, 9.36-10.6 million) cancer deaths globally, with an estimated 250 million (235-264 million) DALYs due to cancer. Since 2010, these represented a 26.3% (95% UI, 20.3%-32.3%) increase in new cases, a 20.9% (95% UI, 14.2%-27.6%) increase in deaths, and a 16.0% (95% UI, 9.3%-22.8%) increase in DALYs. Among 22 groups of diseases and injuries in the GBD 2019 study, cancer was second only to cardiovascular diseases for the number of deaths, years of life lost, and DALYs globally in 2019. Cancer burden differed across SDI quintiles. The proportion of years lived with disability that contributed to DALYs increased with SDI, ranging from 1.4% (1.1%-1.8%) in the low SDI quintile to 5.7% (4.2%-7.1%) in the high SDI quintile. While the high SDI quintile had the highest number of new cases in 2019, the middle SDI quintile had the highest number of cancer deaths and DALYs. From 2010 to 2019, the largest percentage increase in the numbers of cases and deaths occurred in the low and low-middle SDI quintiles. The results of this systematic analysis suggest that the global burden of cancer is substantial and growing, with burden differing by SDI. These results provide comprehensive and comparable estimates that can potentially inform efforts toward equitable cancer control around the world.Funding/Support: The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation received funding from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the American Lebanese Syrian Associated Charities. Dr Aljunid acknowledges the Department of Health Policy and Management of Kuwait University and the International Centre for Casemix and Clinical Coding, National University of Malaysia for the approval and support to participate in this research project. Dr Bhaskar acknowledges institutional support from the NSW Ministry of Health and NSW Health Pathology. Dr Bärnighausen was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation through the Alexander von Humboldt Professor award, which is funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research. Dr Braithwaite acknowledges funding from the National Institutes of Health/ National Cancer Institute. Dr Conde acknowledges financial support from the European Research Council ERC Starting Grant agreement No 848325. Dr Costa acknowledges her grant (SFRH/BHD/110001/2015), received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia, IP under the Norma Transitória grant DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006. Dr Ghith acknowledges support from a grant from Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF16OC0021856). Dr Glasbey is supported by a National Institute of Health Research Doctoral Research Fellowship. Dr Vivek Kumar Gupta acknowledges funding support from National Health and Medical Research Council Australia. Dr Haque thanks Jazan University, Saudi Arabia for providing access to the Saudi Digital Library for this research study. Drs Herteliu, Pana, and Ausloos are partially supported by a grant of the Romanian National Authority for Scientific Research and Innovation, CNDS-UEFISCDI, project number PN-III-P4-ID-PCCF-2016-0084. Dr Hugo received support from the Higher Education Improvement Coordination of the Brazilian Ministry of Education for a sabbatical period at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, between September 2019 and August 2020. Dr Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam acknowledges funding by a National Heart Foundation of Australia Fellowship and National Health and Medical Research Council Emerging Leadership Fellowship. Dr Jakovljevic acknowledges support through grant OI 175014 of the Ministry of Education Science and Technological Development of the Republic of Serbia. Dr Katikireddi acknowledges funding from a NHS Research Scotland Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2), and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). Dr Md Nuruzzaman Khan acknowledges the support of Jatiya Kabi Kazi Nazrul Islam University, Bangladesh. Dr Yun Jin Kim was supported by the Research Management Centre, Xiamen University Malaysia (XMUMRF/2020-C6/ITCM/0004). Dr Koulmane Laxminarayana acknowledges institutional support from Manipal Academy of Higher Education. Dr Landires is a member of the Sistema Nacional de Investigación, which is supported by Panama’s Secretaría Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación. Dr Loureiro was supported by national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia under the Scientific Employment Stimulus–Institutional Call (CEECINST/00049/2018). Dr Molokhia is supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Center at Guy’s and St Thomas’ National Health Service Foundation Trust and King’s College London. Dr Moosavi appreciates NIGEB's support. Dr Pati acknowledges support from the SIAN Institute, Association for Biodiversity Conservation & Research. Dr Rakovac acknowledges a grant from the government of the Russian Federation in the context of World Health Organization Noncommunicable Diseases Office. Dr Samy was supported by a fellowship from the Egyptian Fulbright Mission Program. Dr Sheikh acknowledges support from Health Data Research UK. Drs Adithi Shetty and Unnikrishnan acknowledge support given by Kasturba Medical College, Mangalore, Manipal Academy of Higher Education. Dr Pavanchand H. Shetty acknowledges Manipal Academy of Higher Education for their research support. Dr Diego Augusto Santos Silva was financed in part by the Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - Brasil Finance Code 001 and is supported in part by CNPq (302028/2018-8). Dr Zhu acknowledges the Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas grant RP210042

Trends in cancer survival by ethnic and socioeconomic group, New Zealand, 1991-2004

Background This thesis aimed to understand trends and inequalities in cancer survival using relative survival and excess mortality rate analyses. The three research questions were: i) do non-Māori and higher socioeconomic groups have better survival compared to Māori and lower socioeconomic groups diagnosed with cancer respectively?; ii) is cancer survival improving over time by ethnic and socioeconomic group?; and iii) where they exist, are ethnic and socioeconomic differences in cancer survival narrowing or widening over time? Data and methods Anonymised individual unit records for people diagnosed with cancer 1991-2004, followed up to 31 December 2006, were extracted from linked Census, cancer and mortality data. Cancers were categorised into 21 sites. Ethnicity and equivalised household income categorised were assigned to each unit record using socio-demographic data recorded on the Census. Linked Census and mortality data were used to construct comparable survival and mortality data by ethnicity and income for people who died for reasons other than cancer. Five-year relative survival estimates by ethnic and income group were estimated as well as excess mortality rates censored at 5 years following a cancer diagnosis. The main effect measures were the relative survival ratio difference (RSRD) and the excess mortality rate ratio (EMRR). Pooled EMRR estimates were also calculate to assess the weighted average across all cancer sites. Results Pooled across all cancers and averaged over the study period, Māori had 29% greater excess mortality following a cancer diagnosis compared to non-Māori, with an ethnic EMRR of 1.29 (95% CI 1.24, 1.34). The pooled income EMRR, averaged over time, across all cancer sites was 1.12 (95% CI 1.08, 1.15), a 12% greater excess mortality following a cancer diagnosis on average for the lowest-income group compared to the highest-income group. Pooled across all cancers, excess mortality following a cancer diagnosis reduced by 26% per decade, or a 3% annual reduction in excess mortality, comparing people diagnosed in 2001 to those diagnosed in 1991, with a calendar period EMRR of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72, 0.76). Pooled across all cancers, the ratio change per decade in the Māori compared to non-Maori EMRR was 1.04 (95% CI 0.94, 1.14); suggesting there was little evidence of either widening or narrowing relative gaps in excess mortality by ethnic group over time. Pooled across all cancers, the ratio change per decade in the lowest- compared to the highest-income EMRR was 1.09 (95% CI 1.01, 1.17), suggesting a 9% relative increase per decade in the EMRR comparing the lowest- to highest-income groups. Conclusions Ethnic inequalities and, to a lesser extent, income inequalities, in cancer survival were reported for the majority of cancer sites. These inequalities were likely to stem from differences between groups in terms of quality and timing of treatment, host factors such as co-morbidities, and possibly differences between groups in stage at diagnosis and tumour biology. Survival improved over time for all cancer sites. These trends are likely to be explained by earlier diagnosis for some cancers through improvements in cancer detection and screening and/or improvements in treatment. On average pooled across all cancer sites, there was evidence of faster reductions in the excess mortality rate among high-income people. There was little evidence of changing ethnic differences in excess mortality over time. Differential rates over time between socioeconomic groups in cancer detection, screening, diagnosis and treatment may explain trends in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival

The Significance of Short Latency in Mesothelioma for Attribution of Causation: Report of a Case with Predisposing Germline Mutations and Review of the Literature

Malignant mesothelioma is a tumour of the serosal membranes, related to asbestos exposure. Median latency is in the order of 40 years in various registries, but small numbers of cases with shorter latencies have long been reported and often dismissed as unrelated to asbestos exposure. However, emerging data regarding the significance of inherited mutations leading to a predisposition to mesothelioma suggest that the causative effect of asbestos may be associated with shorter latencies in a subset of patients. Here, we describe a male patient with germline mutations in RAD51 and p53 who developed peritoneal mesothelioma 8.5 years after well-documented asbestos exposure and discuss the current literature on the subject. Mesothelioma in situ is now a WHO-accepted diagnosis, but preliminary data reveal a potential lead time of 5 or more years to invasive disease, and this is also a factor which may affect the recording of latency (and potentially survival) in the future

Australia’s Ongoing Legacy of Asbestos: Significant Challenges Remain Even after the Complete Banning of Asbestos Almost Fifteen Years Ago

The most effective way of reducing the global burden of asbestos-related diseases is through the implementation of asbestos bans and minimising occupational and non-occupational exposure to respirable asbestos fibres. Australia’s asbestos consumption peaked in the 1970s with Australia widely thought to have had among the highest per-capita asbestos consumption level of any country. Australia’s discontinuation of all forms of asbestos and asbestos-containing products and materials did not occur at a single point of time. Crocidolite consumption ceased in the late 1960s, followed by amosite consumption stopping in the mid 1980s. Despite significant government reports being published in 1990 and 1999, it was not until the end of 2003 that a complete ban on all forms of asbestos (crocidolite, amosite, and chrysotile) was introduced in Australia. The sustained efforts of trade unions and non-governmental organisations were essential in forcing the Australian government to finally implement the 2003 asbestos ban. Trade unions and non-government organisations continue to play a key role today in monitoring the government’s response to Australian asbestos-related disease epidemic. There are significant challenges that remain in Australia, despite a complete asbestos ban being implemented almost fifteen years ago. The Australian epidemic of asbestos-related disease has only now reached its peak. A total of 16,679 people were newly diagnosed with malignant mesothelioma between 1982 and 2016, with 84% of cases occurring in men. There has been a stabilisation of the age-standardised malignant mesothelioma incidence rate in the last 10 years. In 2016, the incidence rate per 100,000 was 2.5 using the Australian standard population and 1.3 using the Segi world standard population. Despite Australia’s complete asbestos ban being in place since 2003, public health efforts must continue to focus on preventing the devastating effects of avoidable asbestos-related diseases, including occupational and non-occupational groups who are potentially at risk from exposure to respirable asbestos fibres

Patterns in the incidence, mortality and survival of malignant pleural and peritoneal mesothelioma, New South Wales, 1972–2009

Abstract Introduction: Malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) and malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPeM) are often grouped together in descriptive epidemiological analyses, resulting in limited understanding of epidemiological patterns for these tumour types. Methods: We studied patterns in the incidence, mortality and survival of people diagnosed with MPM (n=4,076) and MPeM (n=293) in New South Wales (NSW), Australia, 1972–2009. We also calculated 5‐year relative survival for people diagnosed 1972–2006 followed up to 2007. We assessed patterns for each tumour type and histological subtype and, where possible, by combination of these categories. Results: Annual MPM cases steadily increased over time (n=208 in 2009). There was an increasing trend in the MPM age‐standardised incidence rate from 1972 up to 1994. This rate increase has levelled off in the past 10 years. Since 1999, 11 cases of MPeM were diagnosed each year, on average. Five‐year relative survival remained stable for MPM and MPeM. However, 5‐year relative survival in 2002–2006 was substantially higher for people with MPM epithelioid histological subtype (11.7% [95%CI 6.8–18.2%]) compared to all other non‐epithelioid histological subtypes (6.9% [95%CI 5.0–9.1%]), a 70% difference. Survival was also greater for women with MPM (13.4% [95%CI 8.5–19.4%]) compared to men (7.0% [95%CI 5.1–9.2%]). Interpretation: MPM incidence rates have stabilised since the mid‐1990s, suggesting that maximum incidence levels have been reached. When more up‐to‐date data are available, survival estimates should be reanalysed to include people likely to benefit from the wide introduction of combination chemotherapy in 2007, including pemetrexed

Bibliometric Analysis of Gaps in Research on Asbestos-Related Diseases: Declining Emphasis on Public Health Over 26 Years

Objectives The global burden of asbestos-related diseases (ARDs) is significant, and most of the world’s population live in countries where asbestos use continues. We examined the gaps between ARD research and suggestions of WHO and the International Labour Organization on prevention. Methods From the Web of Science, we collected data on all articles published during 1991–2016 and identified a subset of ARD-related articles. We classified articles into three research areas—laboratory, clinical and public health—and examined their time trends. For all and the top 11 countries publishing ARD-related articles, we calculated the proportions of all ARD-related articles that were in each of the three areas, the average rates of ARD-related articles over all articles, and the average annual per cent changes of rates. Results ARD-related articles (n=14 284) accounted for 1.3‰ of all articles in 1991, but this had declined to 0.8‰ by 2016. Among the three research areas, the clinical area accounted for the largest proportion (65.0%), followed by laboratory (26.5%) and public health (24.9%). The public health area declined faster than the other areas, at −5.7% per year. Discrepancies were also observed among the top 11 countries regarding emphasis on public health research, with Finland and Italy having higher, and China and the Netherlands lower, emphases. Conclusions There is declining emphasis on the public health area in the ARD-related literature. Under the ongoing global situation of ARD, primary prevention will remain key for some time, warranting efforts to rectify the current trend in ARD-related research

Additional file 1: of Self-selection in a population-based cohort study: impact on health service use and survival for bowel and lung cancer assessed using data linkage

Socioeconomic position by rurality and univariable and multivariable models of health service use outcomes. The additional file contains ratios of relative frequencies for area-based socioeconomic position stratified by rurality (major city; regional and remote) and univariable and multivariable logistic regression models of health service use outcomes (resection; > 4 weeks in hospital; > 2 emergency department attendances; one-year all-cause post-diagnosis survival) for 45 and Up Study participants and NSW residents aged ≥45 years at diagnosis of bowel or lung cancer. (DOCX 610 kb