Diminished temperature and vegetation seasonality over northern high latitudes

Global temperature is increasing, especially over northern lands (>50° N), owing to positive feedbacks1. As this increase is most pronounced in winter, temperature seasonality (ST)—conventionally defined as the difference between summer and winter temperatures—is diminishing over time2, a phenomenon that is analogous to its equatorward decline at an annual scale. The initiation, termination and performance of vegetation photosynthetic activity are tied to threshold temperatures3. Trends in the timing of these thresholds and cumulative temperatures above them may alter vegetation productivity, or modify vegetation seasonality (SV), over time. The relationship between ST and SV is critically examined here with newly improved ground and satellite data sets. The observed diminishment of ST and SV is equivalent to 4° and 7° (5° and 6°) latitudinal shift equatorward during the past 30 years in the Arctic (boreal) region. Analysis of simulations from 17 state-of-the-art climate models4 indicates an additional STdiminishment equivalent to a 20° equatorward shift could occur this century. How SV will change in response to such large projected ST declines and the impact this will have on ecosystem services5 are not well understood. Hence the need for continued monitoring6 of northern lands as their seasonal temperature profiles evolve to resemble thosefurther south.Lopullinen vertaisarvioitu käsikirjoitu

Value of systolic pulmonary arterial pressure as a prognostic factor of death in the systemic sclerosis EUSTAR population.

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic value of systolic pulmonary artery pressure (sPAP) estimated by echocardiography in the multinational European League Against Rheumatism Scleroderma Trial and Research (EUSTAR) cohort.Data for patients with echocardiography documented between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2011 were extracted from the EUSTAR database. Stepwise forward multivariable statistical Cox pulmonary hypertension analysis was used to examine the independent effect on survival of selected variables.Based on our selection criteria, 1476 patients were included in the analysis; 87\% of patients were female, with a mean age of 56.3 years (s.d. 13.5) and 31\% had diffuse SSc. The mean duration of follow-up was 2.0 years (s.d. 1.2, median 1.9). Taking index sPAP of 50 mmHg. In a multivariable Cox model, sPAP and the diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) were independently associated with the risk of death [HR 1.833 (95\% CI 1.035, 3.247) and HR 0.973 (95\% CI 0.955, 0.991), respectively]. sPAP was an independent risk factor for death with a HR of 3.02 (95\% CI 1.91, 4.78) for sPAP ≥36 mmHg.An estimated sPAP >36 mmHg at baseline echocardiography was significantly and independently associated with reduced survival, regardless of the presence of pulmonary hypertension based on right heart catheterization

School performance in Australia: is there a role for quasi-markets?

Recent changes to the organisation of Australia's education system have raised the possibility of implementing wide-ranging market reforms. In this article we discuss the scope for introducing reforms similar to the United Kingdom's 'quasi-market' model. We discuss the role of school league tables in providing signals and incentives in a quasi-market. Specifically, we compare a range of unadjusted and model-based league tables of primary school performance in Queensland's public education system. These comparisons indicate that model-based tables which account for socio-economic status and student intake quality vary significantly from the unadjusted tables

Exact Bayesian curve fitting and signal segmentation.

We consider regression models where the underlying functional relationship between the response and the explanatory variable is modeled as independent linear regressions on disjoint segments. We present an algorithm for perfect simulation from the posterior distribution of such a model, even allowing for an unknown number of segments and an unknown model order for the linear regressions within each segment. The algorithm is simple, can scale well to large data sets, and avoids the problem of diagnosing convergence that is present with Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) approaches to this problem. We demonstrate our algorithm on standard denoising problems, on a piecewise constant AR model, and on a speech segmentation problem

Household Exposure to Paint and Petroleum Solvents, Chromosomal Translocations, and the Risk of Childhood Leukemia

BackgroundFew studies have examined the association between home use of solvents and paint and the risk of childhood leukemia.ObjectivesIn this case-control study, we examined whether the use of paint and petroleum solvents at home before birth and in early childhood influenced the risk of leukemia in children.MethodsWe based our analyses on 550 cases of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), 100 cases of acute myeloid leukemia (AML), and one or two controls per case individually matched for sex, age, Hispanic status, and race. We conducted further analyses by cytogenetic subtype. We used conditional logistic regression techniques to adjust for income.ResultsALL risk was significantly associated with paint exposure [odds ratio (OR) = 1.65; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.26-2.15], with a higher risk observed when paint was used postnatally, by a person other than the mother, or frequently. The association was restricted to leukemia with translocations between chromosomes 12 and 21 (OR = 4.16; 95% CI, 1.66-10.4). We found no significant association between solvent use and ALL risk overall (OR = 1.15; 95% CI, 0.87-1.51) or for various cytogenetic subtypes, but we observed a significant association in the 2.0- to 5.9-year age group (OR = 1.55; 95% CI, 1.07-2.25). In contrast, a significant increased risk for AML was associated with solvent (OR = 2.54; 95% CI, 1.19-5.42) but not with paint exposure (OR = 0.64; 95% CI, 0.32-1.25).ConclusionsThe association of ALL risk with paint exposure was strong, consistent with a causal relationship, but further studies are needed to confirm the association of ALL and AML risk with solvent exposure

Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE): a new scoring system for scientific and clinical needs

A new scoring system, the Basic Erosive Wear Examination (BEWE), has been designed to provide a simple tool for use in general practice and to allow comparison to other more discriminative indices. The most severely affected surface in each sextant is recorded with a four level score and the cumulative score classified and matched to risk levels which guide the management of the condition. The BEWE allows re-analysis and integration of results from existing studies and, in time, should initiate a consensus within the scientific community and so avoid continued proliferation of indices. Finally, this process should lead to the development of an internationally accepted, standardised and validated index. The BEWE further aims to increase the awareness of tooth erosion amongst clinicians and general dental practitioners and to provide a guide as to its management

The utilisation of health research in policy-making: Concepts, examples and methods of assessment

The importance of health research utilisation in policy-making, and of understanding the mechanisms involved, is increasingly recognised. Recent reports calling for more resources to improve health in developing countries, and global pressures for accountability, draw greater attention to research-informed policy-making. Key utilisation issues have been described for at least twenty years, but the growing focus on health research systems creates additional dimensions. The utilisation of health research in policy-making should contribute to policies that may eventually lead to desired outcomes, including health gains. In this article, exploration of these issues is combined with a review of various forms of policy-making. When this is linked to analysis of different types of health research, it assists in building a comprehensive account of the diverse meanings of research utilisation. Previous studies report methods and conceptual frameworks that have been applied, if with varying degrees of success, to record utilisation in policy-making. These studies reveal various examples of research impact within a general picture of underutilisation. Factors potentially enhancing utilisation can be identified by exploration of: priority setting; activities of the health research system at the interface between research and policy-making; and the role of the recipients, or 'receptors', of health research. An interfaces and receptors model provides a framework for analysis. Recommendations about possible methods for assessing health research utilisation follow identification of the purposes of such assessments. Our conclusion is that research utilisation can be better understood, and enhanced, by developing assessment methods informed by conceptual analysis and review of previous studies

Multiple treatment comparisons in epilepsy monotherapy trials

© 2007 Smith et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Licens

A qualitative study of stakeholders' perspectives on the social network service environment

Over two billion people are using the Internet at present, assisted by the mediating activities of software agents which deal with the diversity and complexity of information. There are, however, ethical issues due to the monitoring-and-surveillance, data mining and autonomous nature of software agents. Considering the context, this study aims to comprehend stakeholders' perspectives on the social network service environment in order to identify the main considerations for the design of software agents in social network services in the near future. Twenty-one stakeholders, belonging to three key stakeholder groups, were recruited using a purposive sampling strategy for unstandardised semi-structured e-mail interviews. The interview data were analysed using a qualitative content analysis method. It was possible to identify three main considerations for the design of software agents in social network services, which were classified into the following categories: comprehensive understanding of users' perception of privacy, user type recognition algorithms for software agent development and existing software agents enhancement

The Impact of Diet and Betel Nut Use on Skin Lesions Associated with Drinking-Water Arsenic in Pabna, Bangladesh

An established exposure–response relationship exists between water arsenic levels and skin lesions. Results of previous studies with limited historical exposure data, and laboratory animal studies suggest that diet may modify arsenic metabolism and toxicity. In this study, we evaluated the effect of diet on the risk of arsenic-related skin lesions in Pabna, Bangladesh. Six hundred cases and 600 controls loosely matched on age and sex were enrolled at Dhaka Community Hospital, Bangladesh, in 2001–2002. Diet, demographic data, and water samples were collected. Water samples were analyzed for arsenic using inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy. Betel nut use was associated with a greater risk of skin lesions in a multivariate model [odds ratio (OR) = 1.67; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.18–2.36]. Modest decreases in risk of skin lesions were associated with fruit intake 1–3 times/month (OR = 0.68; 95%CI, 0.51–0.89) and canned goods at least 1 time/month (OR = 0.41; 95% CI, 0.20–0.86). Bean intake at least 1 time/day (OR = 1.89; 95% CI, 1.11–3.22) was associated with increased odds of skin lesions. Betel nut use appears to be associated with increased risk of developing skin lesions in Bangladesh. Increased intake of fruit and canned goods may be associated with reduced risk of lesions. Increased intake of beans may be associated with an increased risk of skin lesions. The results of this study do not provide clear support for a protective effect of vegetable and overall protein consumption against the development of skin lesions, but a modest benefit cannot be excluded