Devising quality assurance procedures for assessment of legacy geochronological data relating to deglaciation of the last British-Irish Ice Sheet

This contribution documents the process of assessing the quality of data within a compilation of legacy geochronological data relating to the last British-Irish Ice Sheet, a task undertaken as part of a larger community-based project (BRITICE-CHRONO) that aims to improve understanding of the ice sheet's deglacial evolution. As accurate reconstructions depend on the quality of the available data, some form of assessment is needed of the reliability and suitability of each given age(s) in our dataset. We outline the background considerations that informed the quality assurance procedures devised given our specific research question. We describe criteria that have been used to make an objective assessment of the likelihood that an age is influenced by the technique specific sources of geological uncertainty. When these criteria were applied to an existing database of all geochronological data relating to the last British-Irish Ice Sheet they resulted in a significant reduction in data considered suitable for synthesis. The assessed data set was used to test a Bayesian approach to age modelling ice stream retreat and we outline our procedure that allows us to minimise the influence of potentially erroneous data and maximise the accuracy of the resultant age models

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Internal dynamics condition centennial-scale oscillations in marine-based ice-stream retreat

Rates of ice-stream retreat over decades can be determined from repeated satellite surveys and over millennia by paleoenvironmental reconstructions. Centennial time scales are an important temporal gap in geological observations of value in process understanding and evaluation of numerical models. We address this temporal gap by developing a 3 ka and 123 km retreat time series for the Irish Sea ice stream (ISIS), a major outlet draining the last British-Irish ice sheet. The Llŷn Peninsula (northwest Wales, UK) contains numerous ice-marginal indicators from which we reconstructed a robust chronological framework of margin oscillations. The landscape documents the retreat of a former marine-terminating ice stream through a topographic constriction, across a reverse bed slope, and across variations in calving margin width. New dating constraints for this sequence were integrated in a Bayesian sequence model to develop a high-resolution ice-retreat chronology. Our results show that retreat of the ISIS during the period 24–20 ka displayed centennial-scale oscillatory behavior of the margin despite relatively stable climatic, oceanic, and relative sea-level forcing mechanisms. Faster retreat rates coincided with greater axial trough depths as the ice passed over a reverse bed slope and the calving margin widened (from 65 to 139 km). The geological observations presented here over a 123-km-long ice-retreat sequence are consistent with theory that marine-based ice can be inherently unstable when passing over a reverse bed slope, but also that wider calving margins lead to much faster ice retreat

The deglaciation of the western sector of the Irish Ice Sheet from the inner continental shelf to its terrestrial margin

This paper provides a new deglacial chronology for retreat of the Irish Ice Sheet from the continental shelf of western Ireland to the adjoining coastline, a region where the timing and drivers of ice recession have never been fully constrained. Previous work suggests maximum ice‐sheet extent on the outer western continental shelf occurred at ~26–24 cal. ka BP with the initial retreat of the ice marked by the production of grounding‐zone wedges between 23–21.1 cal. ka BP . However, the timing and rate of ice‐sheet retreat from the inner continental shelf to the present coast are largely unknown. This paper reports 31 new terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide (TCN ) ages from erratics and ice‐moulded bedrock and three new optically stimulated luminescence (OSL ) ages on deglacial outwash. The TCN data constrain deglaciation of the near coast (Aran Islands) to ~19.5–18.5 ka. This infers ice retreated rapidly from the mid‐shelf after 21 ka, but the combined effects of bathymetric shallowing and pinning acted to stabilize the ice at the Aran Islands. However, marginal stability was short‐lived, with multiple coastal sites along the Connemara/Galway coasts demonstrating ice recession under terrestrial conditions by 18.2–17. ka. This pattern of retreat continued as ice retreated eastward through inner Galway Bay by 16.5 ka. South of Galway, the Kilkee–Kilrush Moraine Complex and Scattery Island moraines point to late stage re‐advances of the ice sheet into southern County Clare ~14.1–13.3 ka, but the large errors associated with the OSL ages make correlation with other regional re‐advances difficult. It seems more likely that these moraines are the product of regional ice lobes adjusting to internal ice‐sheet dynamics during deglaciation in the time window 17–16 ka

Trough geometry was a greater influence than climate-ocean forcing in regulating retreat of the marine-based Irish-Sea Ice Stream

Marine terminating ice streams are a major component of contemporary ice sheets and are likely to have a fundamental influence on their future evolution and concomitant contribution to sea-level rise. To accurately predict this evolution requires that modern day observations can be placed into a longer-term context and that numerical ice sheet models used for making predictions are validated against known evolution of former ice masses. New geochronological data document a stepped retreat of the paleo−Irish Sea Ice Stream from its Last Glacial Maximum limits, constraining changes in the time-averaged retreat rates between well-defined ice marginal positions. The timing and pace of this retreat is compatible with the sediment-landform record and suggests that ice marginal retreat was primarily conditioned by trough geometry and that its pacing was independent of ocean-climate forcing. We present and integrate new luminescence and cosmogenic exposure ages in a spatial Bayesian sequence model for a north-south (173km) transect of the largest marine-terminating ice stream draining the last British−Irish Ice Sheet. From the south and east coasts of Ireland, initial rates of ice margin retreat were as high as 300−600 m a−1, but retreat slowed to 26 m a−1 as the ice stream became topographically constricted within St George’s Channel, a sea channel between Ireland to the west and Great Britain to the east, and then stabilized (retreating at only 3 m a−1) at the narrowest point of the trough during the climatic warming of Greenland Interstadial 2 (GI-2: 23.3−22.9 ka). Later retreat across a normal bed-slope during the cooler conditions of Greenland Stadial 2 was unexpectedly rapid (152 m a−1). We demonstrate that trough geometry had a profound influence on ice margin retreat and suggest that the final rapid retreat was conditioned by ice sheet drawdown (dynamic thinning) during stabilization at the trough constriction, which was exacerbated by increased calving due to warmer ocean waters during GI-2

New age constraints for the limit of the British-Irish Ice Sheet on the Isles of Scilly

The southernmost terrestrial extent of the Irish Sea Ice Stream (ISIS), which drained a large proportion of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet, impinged on to the Isles of Scilly during Marine Isotope Stage 2. However, the age of this ice limit has been contested and the interpretation that this occurred during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) remains controversial. This study reports new ages using optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating of outwash sediments at Battery, Tresco (25.5 ± 1.5 ka), and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide exposure dating of boulders overlying till on Scilly Rock (25.9 ± 1.6 ka), which confirm that the ISIS reached the Isles of Scilly during the LGM. The ages demonstrate this ice advance on to the northern Isles of Scilly occurred at ∼26 ka around the time of increased ice-rafted debris in the adjacent marine record from the continental margin, which coincided with Heinrich Event 2 at ∼24 ka. OSL dating (19.6 ± 1.5 ka) of the post-glacial Hell Bay Gravel at Battery suggests there was then an ∼5-ka delay between primary deposition and aeolian reworking of the glacigenic sediment, during a time when the ISIS ice front was oscillating on and around the Llŷn Peninsula, ∼390 km to the north

Maximum extent and readvance dynamics of the Irish Sea Ice Stream and Irish Sea Glacier since the Last Glacial Maximum

The BRITICE‐CHRONO Project has generated a suite of recently published radiocarbon ages from deglacial sequences offshore in the Celtic and Irish seas and terrestrial cosmogenic nuclide and optically stimulated luminescence ages from adjacent onshore sites. All published data are integrated here with new geochronological data from Wales in a revised Bayesian analysis that enables reconstruction of ice retreat dynamics across the basin. Patterns and changes in the pace of deglaciation are conditioned more by topographic constraints and internal ice dynamics than by external controls. The data indicate a major but rapid and very short‐lived extensive thin ice advance of the Irish Sea Ice Stream (ISIS) more than 300 km south of St George's Channel to a marine calving margin at the shelf break at 25.5 ka; this may have been preceded by extensive ice accumulation plugging the constriction of St George's Channel. The release event between 25 and 26 ka is interpreted to have stimulated fast ice streaming and diverted ice to the west in the northern Irish Sea into the main axis of the marine ISIS away from terrestrial ice terminating in the English Midlands, a process initiating ice stagnation and the formation of an extensive dead ice landscape in the Midlands