Global meteorological influences on the record UK rainfall of winter 2013-14

The UK experienced record average rainfall in winter 2013–14, leading to widespread and prolonged flooding. The immediate cause of this exceptional rainfall was a very strong and persistent cyclonic atmospheric circulation over the North East Atlantic Ocean. This was related to a very strong North Atlantic jet stream which resulted in numerous damaging wind storms. These exceptional meteorological conditions have led to renewed questions about whether anthropogenic climate change is noticeably influencing extreme weather. The regional weather pattern responsible for the extreme UK winter coincided with highly anomalous conditions across the globe. We assess the contributions from various possible remote forcing regions using sets of ocean–atmosphere model relaxation experiments, where winds and temperatures are constrained to be similar to those observed in winter 2013–14 within specified atmospheric domains. We find that influences from the tropics were likely to have played a significant role in the development of the unusual extra-tropical circulation, including a role for the tropical Atlantic sector. Additionally, a stronger and more stable stratospheric polar vortex, likely associated with a strong westerly phase of the stratospheric Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), appears to have contributed to the extreme conditions. While intrinsic climatic variability clearly has the largest effect on the generation of extremes, results from an analysis which segregates circulation-related and residual rainfall variability suggest that emerging climate change signals made a secondary contribution to extreme rainfall in winter 2013–14

The role of the basic state in the ENSO-monsoon relationship and implications for predictability

The impact of systematic model errors on a coupled simulation of the Asian Summer monsoon and its interannual variability is studied. Although the mean monsoon climate is reasonably well captured, systematic errors in the equatorial Pacific mean that the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is rather poorly represented in the GCM. A system of ocean-surface heat flux adjustments is implemented in the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans in order to reduce the systematic biases. In this version of the GCM, the monsoon-ENSO teleconnection is better simulated, particularly the lag-lead relationships in which weak monsoons precede the peak of El Nino. In part this is related to changes in the characteristics of El Nino, which has a more realistic evolution in its developing phase. A stronger ENSO amplitude in the new model version also feeds back to further strengthen the teleconnection. These results have important implications for the use of coupled models for seasonal prediction of systems such as the monsoon, and suggest that some form of flux correction may have significant benefits where model systematic error compromises important teleconnections and modes of interannual variability

Climatology of surface meteorology, surface fluxes, cloud fraction, and radiative forcing over the southeast Pacific from buoy observations

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2009. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 22 (2009): 5527–5540, doi:10.1175/2009JCLI2961.1.A 5-yr climatology of the meteorology, including boundary layer cloudiness, for the southeast Pacific region is presented using observations from a buoy located at 20°S, 85°W. The sea surface temperature and surface air temperature exhibit a sinusoidal seasonal cycle that is negatively correlated with surface pressure. The relative humidity, wind speed, and wind direction show little seasonal variability. But the advection of cold and dry air from the southeast varies seasonally and is highly correlated with the latent heat flux variations. A simple model was used to estimate the monthly cloud fraction using the observed surface downwelling longwave radiative flux and surface meteorological parameters. The annual cycle of cloud fraction is highly correlated to that of S. A. Klein: lower-tropospheric stability parameter (0.87), latent heat flux (−0.59), and temperature and moisture advection (0.60). The derived cloud fraction compares poorly with the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP)-derived low-cloud cover but compares well (0.86 correlation) with ISCCP low- plus middle-cloud cover. The monthly averaged diurnal variations in cloud fraction show marked seasonal variability in the amplitude and temporal structure. The mean annual cloud fraction is lower than the mean annual nighttime cloud fraction by about 9%. Annual and diurnal cycles of surface longwave and shortwave cloud radiative forcing were also estimated. The longwave cloud radiative forcing is about 45 W m−2 year-round, but, because of highly negative shortwave cloud radiative forcing, the net cloud radiative forcing is always negative with an annual mean of −50 W m−2.This research was supported by the Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA) of NOAA’s Climate Program Office. The Stratus Ocean Reference Station at 20°S, 85°W is supported by NOAA’s Climate Observation Program

Resolving the Steep Spectrum Emission in the Central Radio Source in ZwCl 0735.7+7421

It has long been know that an extremely steep spectrum radio source lies at the center of ZwCl 0735.7+7421, a galaxy cluster with high X-ray luminosity and a cooling core. In this Letter, we present VLA observations of this radio source at both 1425 and 325 MHz. With a resolution below 21'' (75 kpc) for both 1425 and 325 MHz, we show the morphology of the central source, and find that it is most likely a large (400 kpc) radio galaxy rather than diffuse cluster emission. We estimate a steep spectral index of $\alpha_{325}^{1400} = -1.54$ for the core (although it may be contaminated by lobe emission), while the outer lobes are extremely steep objects, both with $\alpha_{325}^{1400} < -3.1$. We also find evidence for restarted core activity in the form of a set of inner lobes oriented at a somewhat different angle from the outer lobes. A spectral analysis extending the frequency range down to 74 MHz appears to show a turnover at very low frequencies. Comparison of the minimum energy radio pressures with the average thermal pressure surrounding the radio cavities from McNamara et al.(2005) shows that the radio lobes appear to be roughly in pressure balance with the thermal gas.Comment: Accepted for publication in the Astrophysical Journal Letters; 12 pages, 5 figures, 2 table

An Unbiased Measurement of Ho through Cosmic Background Imager Observations of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect in Nearby Galaxy Clusters

We present Ho results from Cosmic Background Imager (CBI) observations of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich Effect (SZE) in 7 galaxy clusters, A85, A399, A401, A478, A754, A1651, and A2597. These observations are part of a program to study a complete, volume-limited sample of low-redshift (z<0.1), X-ray selected clusters. Our focus on nearby objects allows us to study a well-defined, orientation unbiased sample, minimizing systematic errors due to cluster asphericity. We use density models derived from ROSAT imaging data and temperature measurements from ASCA and BeppoSAX spectral observations. We quantify in detail sources of error in our derivation of Ho, including calibration of the CBI data, density and temperature models from the X-ray data, Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) primary anisotropy fluctuations, and residuals from radio point source subtraction. From these 7 clusters we obtain a result of Ho = 67^{+30}_{-18}, ^{+15}_{-6} km/s/Mpc for an unweighted sample average. The respective quoted errors are random and systematic uncertainties at 68% confidence. The dominant source of error is confusion from intrinsic anisotropy fluctuations.Comment: 49 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap

The von Hippel-Lindau Chuvash mutation in mice alters cardiac substrate and high energy phosphate metabolism

Hypoxia-inducible factor (HIF) appears to function as a global master regulator of cellular and systemic responses to hypoxia. HIF-pathway manipulation is of therapeutic interest, however global, systemic upregulation of HIF may have as yet unknown effects on multiple processes. We utilized a mouse model of Chuvash polycythemia (CP), a rare genetic disorder which modestly increases expression of HIF target genes in normoxia, to understand what these effects might be within the heart. An integrated in and ex vivo approach was employed. In comparison to wild-type controls, CP mice had evidence (using in vivo MRI) of pulmonary hypertension, right ventricular hypertrophy, and increased left ventricular ejection fraction. Glycolytic flux (measured using 3H glucose) in the isolated, contracting, perfused CP heart was 1.8-fold higher. Net lactate efflux was 1.5-fold higher. Furthermore, in vivo 13C magnetic resonance spectroscopy (MRS) of hyperpolarized 13C1 pyruvate revealed a 2-fold increase in real-time flux through lactate dehydrogenase in the CP hearts, and a 1.6-fold increase through pyruvate dehydrogenase. 31P MRS of perfused CP hearts under increased workload (isoproterenol infusion) demonstrated increased depletion of phosphocreatine relative to ATP. Intriguingly, no changes in cardiac gene expression were detected. In summary, a modest systemic dysregulation of the HIF pathway resulted in clear alterations in cardiac metabolism and energetics. However, in contrast to studies generating high HIF levels within the heart, the CP mice showed neither the predicted changes in gene expression nor any degree of LV impairment. We conclude that the effects of manipulating HIF on the heart are dose-dependent. New and noteworthy This is the first integrative metabolic and functional study of the effects of modest HIF manipulation within the heart. Of particular note, the combination (and correlation) of perfused heart metabolic flux measurements with the new technique of real-time in vivo MR spectroscopy using hyperpolarized pyruvate is a novel development

On the pivotal role of PPARa in adaptation of the heart to hypoxia and why fat in the diet increases hypoxic injury

The role of peroxisome proliferator activated alpha (PPARα) -mediated metabolic remodeling in cardiac adaptation to hypoxia has yet to be defined. Here, mice were housed in hypoxia for 3 weeks before in vivo contractile function was measured using cine magnetic resonance (MR) imaging. In isolated, perfused hearts, energetics were measured using 31P MR spectroscopy and glycolysis and fatty acid oxidation were measured using 3H labelling. Compared with normoxic, chow-fed control mouse heart, hypoxia decreased PPARα expression, fatty acid oxidation and mitochondrial UCP3 levels, while increasing glycolysis, all of which served to maintain normal ATP concentrations and thereby ejection fractions. A high-fat diet increased cardiac PPARα expression, fatty acid oxidation and UCP3 levels, with decreased glycolysis. Hypoxia was unable to alter the high PPARα expression or reverse the metabolic changes caused by the high fat diet, with the result that ATP concentrations and contractile function decreased significantly. The adaptive metabolic changes caused by hypoxia in control mouse hearts were found to have already occurred in PPARα-/- mouse hearts, and sustained function in hypoxia despite an inability for further metabolic remodelling. We conclude that decreased cardiac PPARα expression is essential for adaptive metabolic remodelling in hypoxia, but is prevented by dietary fat

Communicating climate change: conduits, content, and consensus

Climate change has been the subject of increasing efforts by scientists to understand its causes and implications; it has been of growing interest to policymakers, international bodies, and a variety of nongovernment organizations; and it has attracted varied amounts of attention from traditional and, increasingly, online media. These developments have been aligned with shifts in the nature of climate change communication, with changes in how researchers study it and how a variety of actors try to influence it. This article situates the theory and practice of climate change communication within developments that have taken place since we first reviewed the field in 2009. These include the rise of new social media conduits for communication, research, and practice aimed at fine tuning communication content, and the rise to prominence of scientific consensus as part of that content. We focus in particular on continuing tensions between a focus on the part of communicators to inform the public and more dialogic strategies of public engagement. We also consider the tension between efforts to promote consensus and certainty in climate science and approaches that attempt to engage with uncertainty more fully. We explore the lessons to be learnt from climate communication since 2009, highlighting how the field remains haunted by the deficit model of science communication. Finally, we point to more fruitful future directions for climate change communication, including more participatory models that acknowledge, rather than ignore, residual uncertainties in climate science in order to stimulate debate and deliberation