Cut-off low pressure systems and extreme rainfall over South Africa

Includes bibliographical references (p. 257-271).This thesis is an investigation of cut-off low pressure systems over South Africa. These weather systems have been responsible for many of the flooding disasters that have affected South Africa, particularly the coastal regions, over recent decades. The thesis has two main objectives, namely, to construct a 30-year climatology of cut-off lows over South Africa, and to further understanding of the evolution of the low-level flow that leads to these systems producing extreme quantities of rainfall

A Comparison of Sea Surface Temperature Perturbation Methods for a Convection Permitting Ensemble Prediction System Over the European Arctic

This article investigates two different methods for perturbing sea surface temperature (SST) in a convection permitting ensemble prediction system based on the AROME-Arctic NWP model. The methods are one that results in perturbations that are purely randomly located and one in which the perturbations are targeted towards locations where the SST errors are thought to be largest. The impact of the magnitude of the perturbations is also tested by scaling the randomly located perturbations to have a similar L1 norm to the targeted perturbations. The impact of the SST error estimate is tested by comparing the method of targeting SST perturbations based on different SST uncertainty estimates. The methods are tested for four high impact weather events over the European Arctic – a polar low, two cold air outbreaks and a severe storm and are verified against near surface observations over land, scatterometer wind speeds over the ocean and against the operational analyses of the model under investigation. It is shown that targeted perturbations generally result in better verification scores when compared with randomly located perturbations. Especially over the ocean it appears that targeting the locations of largest uncertainty can lead to an increased spread without impacting the route mean square error. The results suggest that the impact of SST perturbations over land may be more related to the magnitudes of the perturbations regardless of location, while over the ocean the location of the perturbations becomes more important

Estimating the causal influence of body mass index on risk of Parkinson disease: A Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Both positive and negative associations between higher body mass index (BMI) and Parkinson disease (PD) have been reported in observational studies, but it has been difficult to establish causality because of the possibility of residual confounding or reverse causation. To our knowledge, Mendelian randomisation (MR)-the use of genetic instrumental variables (IVs) to explore causal effects-has not previously been used to test the effect of BMI on PD. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Two-sample MR was undertaken using genome-wide association (GWA) study data. The associations between the genetic instruments and BMI were obtained from the GIANT consortium and consisted of the per-allele difference in mean BMI for 77 independent variants that reached genome-wide significance. The per-allele difference in log-odds of PD for each of these variants was estimated from a recent meta-analysis, which included 13,708 cases of PD and 95,282 controls. The inverse-variance weighted method was used to estimate a pooled odds ratio (OR) for the effect of a 5-kg/m2 higher BMI on PD. Evidence of directional pleiotropy averaged across all variants was sought using MR-Egger regression. Frailty simulations were used to assess whether causal associations were affected by mortality selection. A combined genetic IV expected to confer a lifetime exposure of 5-kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with a lower risk of PD (OR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69-0.98). MR-Egger regression gave similar results, suggesting that directional pleiotropy was unlikely to be biasing the result (intercept 0.002; p = 0.654). However, the apparent protective influence of higher BMI could be at least partially induced by survival bias in the PD GWA study, as demonstrated by frailty simulations. Other important limitations of this application of MR include the inability to analyse non-linear associations, to undertake subgroup analyses, and to gain mechanistic insights. CONCLUSIONS: In this large study using two-sample MR, we found that variants known to influence BMI had effects on PD in a manner consistent with higher BMI leading to lower risk of PD. The mechanism underlying this apparent protective effect warrants further study

Exile Vol. XXIII No. 2

PROSE The End of East by Libby Thomas 3-12 Lilt by Andrew Calabrese 13 The Egg Lady by Nancy Jones 14-20 The International Man by Chip Finefrock 21-31 MUSIC Theme and Variations Op.2, No 1. by J. J. Fuerst 32-38 POETRY Thrown Out Of The Game by Herberto Padilla to Yannis Ritzos in a Greek jail (Translated from the Spanish by José de Armas) 39 Plumb-Creek In Late Sunlight by Lenore Mayhew 40 untitled by Sharon Singleton 41 untitled by Sharon Singleton 42 A Dance Of Stones by Lawrence Weber 43-44 Carp and Crane by William McNaughton 45 Mountain Ash by Dawn Patnode 46-49 untitled by Mary de Rachewiltz 50 Kai Gar Onar Ek Dios Estin by William McNaughton 51 acute angles by Gay Parks 52 Annihilating All Made To A Thought by Tony Stoneburner 53 Dead Fish by Deneise Deter 54 Changing by Deb Allbery 54 Finish Lines by David A. Goldblatt 55 Malinche\u27s Sister by Tona Dickerson 56 Tarde en el hospital by Carlos Peoza Veliz 57 Afternoon in the Hospital by Carlos Peoza Veliz (Tanslated from the Spanish by Joan Straub) 57 Cuadrados Y Angulos by Alfonaina Storni 58 Squares and Angles by Alfonaina Storni (Translated from the Spanish by Joan Straub) 58 INK DRAWINGS untitled by Susan Hoagman 2 Self-Portrait or Darla by Julia Weatherford 59 untitled by Katy Booth 70 ESSAYS On As For Poets by Gary Snyder 60-61 Joseph Heller\u27s Something Happened and the Problem of Community in Modern America by Jack Kirby 62-68 EDITOR\u27S NOTE by Lawrence Weber 69-70 CONTRIBUTORS 71-72 The cover ink drawing by Cathy Ries is entitled, Exercise In Exaggerated Contours

TOM40 Mediates Mitochondrial Dysfunction Induced by α-Synuclein Accumulation in Parkinson's Disease.

Alpha-synuclein (α-Syn) accumulation/aggregation and mitochondrial dysfunction play prominent roles in the pathology of Parkinson's disease. We have previously shown that postmortem human dopaminergic neurons from PD brains accumulate high levels of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) deletions. We now addressed the question, whether alterations in a component of the mitochondrial import machinery -TOM40- might contribute to the mitochondrial dysfunction and damage in PD. For this purpose, we studied levels of TOM40, mtDNA deletions, oxidative damage, energy production, and complexes of the respiratory chain in brain homogenates as well as in single neurons, using laser-capture-microdissection in transgenic mice overexpressing human wildtype α-Syn. Additionally, we used lentivirus-mediated stereotactic delivery of a component of this import machinery into mouse brain as a novel therapeutic strategy. We report here that TOM40 is significantly reduced in the brain of PD patients and in α-Syn transgenic mice. TOM40 deficits were associated with increased mtDNA deletions and oxidative DNA damage, and with decreased energy production and altered levels of complex I proteins in α-Syn transgenic mice. Lentiviral-mediated overexpression of Tom40 in α-Syn-transgenic mice brains ameliorated energy deficits as well as oxidative burden. Our results suggest that alterations in the mitochondrial protein transport machinery might contribute to mitochondrial impairment in α-Synucleinopathies

Tamm Review: Management of mixed-severity fire regime forests in Oregon, Washington, and Northern California

Increasingly, objectives for forests with moderate- or mixed-severity fire regimes are to restore successionally diverse landscapes that are resistant and resilient to current and future stressors. Maintaining native species and characteristic processes requires this successional diversity, but methods to achieve it are poorly explained in the literature. In the Inland Pacific US, large, old, early seral trees were a key historical feature of many young and old forest successional patches, especially where fires frequently occurred. Large, old trees are naturally fire-tolerant, but today are often threatened by dense understory cohorts that create fuel ladders that alter likely post-fire successional pathways. Reducing these understories can contribute to resistance by creating conditions where canopy trees will survive disturbances and climatic stressors; these survivors are important seed sources, soil protectors, and critical habitat elements. Historical timber harvesting has skewed tree size and age class distributions, created hard edges, and altered native patch sizes. Manipulating these altered forests to promote development of larger patches of older, larger, and more widely-spaced trees with diverse understories will increase landscape resistance to severe fires, and enhance wildlife habitat for underrepresented conditions. Closed-canopy, multi-layered patches that develop in hot, dry summer environments are vulnerable to droughts, and they increase landscape vulnerability to insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. These same patches provide habitat for species such as the northern spotted owl, which has benefited from increased habitat area. Regional and local planning will be critical for gauging risks, evaluating trade-offs, and restoring dynamics that can support these and other species. The goal will be to manage for heterogeneous landscapes that include variably-sized patches of (1) young, middle-aged, and old, closed canopy forests growing in upper montane, northerly aspect, and valley bottom settings, (2) a similar diversity of open-canopy, fire-tolerant patches growing on ridgetops, southerly aspects, and lower montane settings, and (3) significant montane chaparral and grassland areas. Tools to achieve this goal include managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and variable density thinning at small to large scales. Specifics on ‘‘how much and where?” will vary according to physiographic, topographic and historical templates, and regulatory requirements, and be determined by means of a socio-ecological process

Tamm Review: Management of mixed-severity fire regime forests in Oregon, Washington, and Northern California

Increasingly, objectives for forests with moderate- or mixed-severity fire regimes are to restore successionally diverse landscapes that are resistant and resilient to current and future stressors. Maintaining native species and characteristic processes requires this successional diversity, but methods to achieve it are poorly explained in the literature. In the Inland Pacific US, large, old, early seral trees were a key historical feature of many young and old forest successional patches, especially where fires frequently occurred. Large, old trees are naturally fire-tolerant, but today are often threatened by dense understory cohorts that create fuel ladders that alter likely post-fire successional pathways. Reducing these understories can contribute to resistance by creating conditions where canopy trees will survive disturbances and climatic stressors; these survivors are important seed sources, soil protectors, and critical habitat elements. Historical timber harvesting has skewed tree size and age class distributions, created hard edges, and altered native patch sizes. Manipulating these altered forests to promote development of larger patches of older, larger, and more widely-spaced trees with diverse understories will increase landscape resistance to severe fires, and enhance wildlife habitat for underrepresented conditions. Closed-canopy, multi-layered patches that develop in hot, dry summer environments are vulnerable to droughts, and they increase landscape vulnerability to insect outbreaks and severe wildfires. These same patches provide habitat for species such as the northern spotted owl, which has benefited from increased habitat area. Regional and local planning will be critical for gauging risks, evaluating trade-offs, and restoring dynamics that can support these and other species. The goal will be to manage for heterogeneous landscapes that include variably-sized patches of (1) young, middle-aged, and old, closed canopy forests growing in upper montane, northerly aspect, and valley bottom settings, (2) a similar diversity of open-canopy, fire-tolerant patches growing on ridgetops, southerly aspects, and lower montane settings, and (3) significant montane chaparral and grassland areas. Tools to achieve this goal include managed wildfire, prescribed burning, and variable density thinning at small to large scales. Specifics on ‘‘how much and where?” will vary according to physiographic, topographic and historical templates, and regulatory requirements, and be determined by means of a socio-ecological process

Polygenic Resilience Modulates the Penetrance of Parkinson Disease Genetic Risk Factors

peer reviewedObjective: The aim of the current study is to understand why some individuals avoid developing Parkinson disease (PD) despite being at relatively high genetic risk, using the largest datasets of individual-level genetic data available. Methods: We calculated polygenic risk score to identify controls and matched PD cases with the highest burden of genetic risk for PD in the discovery cohort (International Parkinson's Disease Genomics Consortium, 7,204 PD cases and 9,412 controls) and validation cohorts (Comprehensive Unbiased Risk Factor Assessment for Genetics and Environment in Parkinson's Disease, 8,968 cases and 7,598 controls; UK Biobank, 2,639 PD cases and 14,301 controls; Accelerating Medicines Partnership–Parkinson's Disease Initiative, 2,248 cases and 2,817 controls). A genome-wide association study meta-analysis was performed on these individuals to understand genetic variation associated with resistance to disease. We further constructed a polygenic resilience score, and performed multimarker analysis of genomic annotation (MAGMA) gene-based analyses and functional enrichment analyses. Results: A higher polygenic resilience score was associated with a lower risk for PD (β = −0.054, standard error [SE] = 0.022, p = 0.013). Although no single locus reached genome-wide significance, MAGMA gene-based analyses nominated TBCA as a putative gene. Furthermore, we estimated the narrow-sense heritability associated with resilience to PD (h2 = 0.081, SE = 0.035, p = 0.0003). Subsequent functional enrichment analysis highlighted histone methylation as a potential pathway harboring resilience alleles that could mitigate the effects of PD risk loci. Interpretation: The present study represents a novel and comprehensive assessment of heritable genetic variation contributing to PD resistance. We show that a genetic resilience score can modify the penetrance of PD genetic risk factors and therefore protect individuals carrying a high-risk genetic burden from developing PD. ANN NEUROL 202

Polygenic risk of Parkinson disease is correlated with disease age at onset

OBJECTIVE: We have investigated the polygenic architecture of Parkinson disease (PD) and have also explored the potential relationship between an individual's polygenic risk score and their disease age at onset. METHODS: This study used genotypic data from 4,294 cases and 10,340 controls obtained from the meta-analysis of PD genome-wide association studies. Polygenic score analysis was performed as previously described by the International Schizophrenia Consortium, testing whether the polygenic score alleles identified in 1 association study were significantly enriched in the cases relative to the controls of 3 independent studies. Linear regression was used to investigate the relationship between an individual's polygenic score for PD risk alleles and disease age at onset. RESULTS: Our polygenic score analysis has identified significant evidence for a polygenic component enriched in the cases of each of 3 independent PD genome-wide association cohorts (minimum p = 3.76 × 10(-6) ). Further analysis identified compelling evidence that the average polygenic score in patients with an early disease age at onset was significantly higher than in those with a late age at onset (p = 0.00014). INTERPRETATION: This provides strong support for a large polygenic contribution to the overall heritable risk of PD and also suggests that early onset forms of the illness are not exclusively caused by highly penetrant Mendelian mutations, but can also be contributed to by an accumulation of common polygenic alleles with relatively low effect sizes

Clinical, pathological and functional characterization of riboflavin-responsive neuropathy.

Brown-Vialetto-Van Laere syndrome represents a phenotypic spectrum of motor, sensory, and cranial nerve neuropathy, often with ataxia, optic atrophy and respiratory problems leading to ventilator-dependence. Loss-of-function mutations in two riboflavin transporter genes, SLC52A2 and SLC52A3, have recently been linked to Brown-Vialetto-Van Laere syndrome. However, the genetic frequency, neuropathology and downstream consequences of riboflavin transporter mutations are unclear. By screening a large cohort of 132 patients with early-onset severe sensory, motor and cranial nerve neuropathy we confirmed the strong genetic link between riboflavin transporter mutations and Brown-Vialetto-Van Laere syndrome, identifying 22 pathogenic mutations in SLC52A2 and SLC52A3, 14 of which were novel. Brain and spinal cord neuropathological examination of two cases with SLC52A3 mutations showed classical symmetrical brainstem lesions resembling pathology seen in mitochondrial disease, including severe neuronal loss in the lower cranial nerve nuclei, anterior horns and corresponding nerves, atrophy of the spinothalamic and spinocerebellar tracts and posterior column-medial lemniscus pathways. Mitochondrial dysfunction has previously been implicated in an array of neurodegenerative disorders. Since riboflavin metabolites are critical components of the mitochondrial electron transport chain, we hypothesized that reduced riboflavin transport would result in impaired mitochondrial activity, and confirmed this using in vitro and in vivo models. Electron transport chain complex I and complex II activity were decreased in SLC52A2 patient fibroblasts, while global knockdown of the single Drosophila melanogaster riboflavin transporter homologue revealed reduced levels of riboflavin, downstream metabolites, and electron transport chain complex I activity. This in turn led to abnormal mitochondrial membrane potential, respiratory chain activity and morphology. Riboflavin transporter knockdown in Drosophila also resulted in severely impaired locomotor activity and reduced lifespan, mirroring patient pathology, and these phenotypes could be partially rescued using a novel esterified derivative of riboflavin. Our findings expand the genetic, clinical and neuropathological features of Brown-Vialetto-Van Laere syndrome, implicate mitochondrial dysfunction as a downstream consequence of riboflavin transporter gene defects, and validate riboflavin esters as a potential therapeutic strategy