Intuitive Biases in Choice Versus Estimation: Implications for the Wisdom of Crowds

Although researchers have documented many instances of crowd wisdom, it is important to know whether some kinds of judgments may lead the crowd astray, whether crowds’ judgments improve with feedback over time, and whether crowds’ judgments can be improved by changing the way judgments are elicited. We investigated these questions in a sports gambling context (predictions against point spreads) believed to elicit crowd wisdom. In a season-long experiment, fans wagered over $20,000 on NFL football predictions. Contrary to the wisdom-of-crowds hypothesis, faulty intuitions led the crowd to predict “favorites” more than “underdogs” against point spreads that disadvantaged favorites, even when bettors knew that the spreads disadvantaged favorites. Moreover, the bias increased over time, a result consistent with attributions for success and failure that rewarded intuitive choosing. However, when the crowd predicted game outcomes by estimating point differentials rather than by predicting against point spreads, its predictions were unbiased and wiser

TB162: Red Maple and White Pine Litter Quality: Initial Changes with Decomposition

The specific objectives of this study were (a) to define the organic and inorganic composition of foliar litter from red maple (Acer rubrum L.) and white pine (Pinus strobus L.), and (b) to determine the shifts in the organic and inorganic composition of these two litter types during the initial stages of decomposition. These two species were chosen because of their prominence in the northeastern U.S. and the contrast they afforded in litter quality characteristics which have a strong influence on litter decomposition.https://digitalcommons.library.umaine.edu/aes_techbulletin/1038/thumbnail.jp

The role of biophysical cohesion on subaqueous bed form size

Biologically active, fine-grained sediment forms abundant sedimentary deposits on Earth's surface, and mixed mud-sand dominates many coasts, deltas, and estuaries. Our predictions of sediment transport and bed roughness in these environments presently rely on empirically based bed form predictors that are based exclusively on biologically inactive cohesionless silt, sand, and gravel. This approach underpins many paleoenvironmental reconstructions of sedimentary successions, which rely on analysis of cross-stratification and bounding surfaces produced by migrating bed forms. Here we present controlled laboratory experiments that identify and quantify the influence of physical and biological cohesion on equilibrium bed form morphology. The results show the profound influence of biological cohesion on bed form size and identify how cohesive bonding mechanisms in different sediment mixtures govern the relationships. The findings highlight that existing bed form predictors require reformulation for combined biophysical cohesive effects in order to improve morphodynamic model predictions and to enhance the interpretations of these environments in the geological record

Epidemiology of gestational diabetes mellitus according to IADPSG/WHO 2013 criteria among obese pregnant women in Europe

Aims/hypothesis: Accurate prevalence estimates for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) among pregnant women in Europe are lacking owing to the use of a multitude of diagnostic criteria and screening strategies in both high-risk women and the general pregnant population. Our aims were to report important risk factors for GDM development and calculate the prevalence of GDM in a cohort of women with BMI ≥29 kg/m2 across 11 centres in Europe using the International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG)/WHO 2013 diagnostic criteria. Methods: Pregnant women (n = 1023, 86.3% European ethnicity) with a BMI ≥29.0 kg/m2 enrolled into the Vitamin D and Lifestyle Intervention for GDM Prevention (DALI) pilot, lifestyle and vitamin D studies of this pan-European multicentre trial, attended for an OGTT during pregnancy. Demographic, anthropometric and metabolic data were collected at enrolment and throughout pregnancy. GDM was diagnosed using IADPSG/WHO 2013 criteria. GDM treatment followed local policies. Results: The number of women recruited per country ranged from 80 to 217, and the dropout rate was 7.1%. Overall, 39% of women developed GDM during pregnancy, with no significant differences in prevalence across countries. The prevalence of GDM was high (24%; 242/1023) in early pregnancy. Despite interventions used in the DALI study, a further 14% (94/672) had developed GDM when tested at mid gestation (24–28 weeks) and 13% (59/476) of the remaining cohort at late gestation (35–37 weeks). Demographics and lifestyle factors were similar at baseline between women with GDM and those who maintained normal glucose tolerance. Previous GDM (16.5% vs 7.9%, p = 0.002), congenital malformations (6.4% vs 3.3%, p = 0.045) and a baby with macrosomia (31.4% vs 17.9%, p = 0.001) were reported more frequently in those who developed GDM. Significant anthropometric and metabolic differences were already present in early pregnancy between women who developed GDM and those who did not. Conclusions/interpretation: The prevalence of GDM diagnosed by the IADPSG/WHO 2013 GDM criteria in European pregnant women with a BMI ≥29.0 kg/m2 is substantial, and poses a significant health burden to these pregnancies and to the future health of the mother and her offspring. Uniform criteria for GDM diagnosis, supported by robust evidence for the benefits of treatment, are urgently needed to guide modern GDM screening and treatment strategies

Cytosolic phospholipase A2α–deficient mice are resistant to experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis

Experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), a Th1-mediated inflammatory disease of the central nervous system (CNS), is a model of human multiple sclerosis. Cytosolic phospholipase A2α (cPLA2α), which initiates production of prostaglandins, leukotrienes, and platelet-activating factor, is present in EAE lesions. Using myelin oligodendrocyte glycoprotein (MOG) immunization, as well as an adoptive transfer model, we showed that cPLA2α−/− mice are resistant to EAE. Histologic examination of the CNS from MOG-immunized mice revealed extensive inflammatory lesions in the cPLA2α+/− mice, whereas the lesions in cPLA2α−/− mice were reduced greatly or completely absent. MOG-specific T cells generated from WT mice induced less severe EAE in cPLA2α−/− mice compared with cPLA2α+/− mice, which indicates that cPLA2α plays a role in the effector phase of EAE. Additionally, MOG-specific T cells from cPLA2α−/− mice, transferred into WT mice, induced EAE with delayed onset and lower severity compared with EAE that was induced by control cells; this indicates that cPLA2α also plays a role in the induction phase of EAE. MOG-specific T cells from cPLA2α−/− mice were deficient in production of Th1-type cytokines. Consistent with this deficiency, in vivo administration of IL-12 rendered cPLA2α−/− mice susceptible to EAE. Our data indicate that cPLA2α plays an important role in EAE development and facilitates differentiation of T cells toward the Th1 phenotype

Galaxy Zoo: CANDELS barred discs and bar fractions

The formation of bars in disc galaxies is a tracer of the dynamical maturity of the population. Previous studies have found that the incidence of bars in discs decreases from the local Universe to z ~ 1, and by z > 1 simulations predict that bar features in dynamically mature discs should be extremely rare. Here, we report the discovery of strong barred structures in massive disc galaxies at z ~ 1.5 in deep rest-frame optical images from the Cosmic Assembly Near-Infrared Deep Extragalactic Legacy Survey. From within a sample of 876 disc galaxies identified by visual classification in Galaxy Zoo, we identify 123 barred galaxies. Selecting a subsample within the same region of the evolving galaxy luminosity function (brighter than L*), we find that the bar fraction across the redshift range 0.5 ≤ z ≤ 2 (fbar = 10.7+6.3 -3.5 per cent after correcting for incompleteness) does not significantly evolve.We discuss the implications of this discovery in the context of existing simulations and our current understanding of the way disc galaxies have evolved over the last 11 billion yearsPeer reviewedFinal Accepted Versio

International Coercion, Emulation and Policy Diffusion: Market-Oriented Infrastructure Reforms, 1977-1999

Why do some countries adopt market-oriented reforms such as deregulation, privatization and liberalization of competition in their infrastructure industries while others do not? Why did the pace of adoption accelerate in the 1990s? Building on neo-institutional theory in sociology, we argue that the domestic adoption of market-oriented reforms is strongly influenced by international pressures of coercion and emulation. We find robust support for these arguments with an event-history analysis of the determinants of reform in the telecommunications and electricity sectors of as many as 205 countries and territories between 1977 and 1999. Our results also suggest that the coercive effect of multilateral lending from the IMF, the World Bank or Regional Development Banks is increasing over time, a finding that is consistent with anecdotal evidence that multilateral organizations have broadened the scope of the “conditionality” terms specifying market-oriented reforms imposed on borrowing countries. We discuss the possibility that, by pressuring countries into policy reform, cross-national coercion and emulation may not produce ideal outcomes.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/40099/3/wp713.pd

Abnormal Placental Development and Early Embryonic Lethality in EpCAM-Null Mice

BACKGROUND: EpCAM (CD326) is encoded by the tacstd1 gene and expressed by a variety of normal and malignant epithelial cells and some leukocytes. Results of previous in vitro experiments suggested that EpCAM is an intercellular adhesion molecule. EpCAM has been extensively studied as a potential tumor marker and immunotherapy target, and more recent studies suggest that EpCAM expression may be characteristic of cancer stem cells. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To gain insights into EpCAM function in vivo, we generated EpCAM -/- mice utilizing an embryonic stem cell line with a tacstd1 allele that had been disrupted. Gene trapping resulted in a protein comprised of the N-terminus of EpCAM encoded by 2 exons of the tacstd1 gene fused in frame to betageo. EpCAM +/- mice were viable and fertile and exhibited no obvious abnormalities. Examination of EpCAM +/- embryos revealed that betageo was expressed in several epithelial structures including developing ears (otocysts), eyes, branchial arches, gut, apical ectodermal ridges, lungs, pancreas, hair follicles and others. All EpCAM -/- mice died in utero by E12.5, and were small, developmentally delayed, and displayed prominent placental abnormalities. In developing placentas, EpCAM was expressed throughout the labyrinthine layer and by spongiotrophoblasts as well. Placentas of EpCAM -/- embryos were compact, with thin labyrinthine layers lacking prominent vascularity. Parietal trophoblast giant cells were also dramatically reduced in EpCAM -/- placentas. CONCLUSION: EpCAM was required for differentiation or survival of parietal trophoblast giant cells, normal development of the placental labyrinth and establishment of a competent maternal-fetal circulation. The findings in EpCAM-reporter mice suggest involvement of this molecule in development of vital organs including the gut, kidneys, pancreas, lungs, eyes, and limbs