Design of trials for interrupting the transmission of endemic pathogens

Many interventions against infectious diseases have geographically diffuse effects. This leads to contamination between arms in cluster-randomized trials (CRTs). Pathogen elimination is the goal of many intervention programs against infectious agents, but contamination means that standard CRT designs and analyses do not provide inferences about the potential of interventions to interrupt pathogen transmission at maximum scale-up.; A generic model of disease transmission was used to simulate infections in stepped wedge cluster-randomized trials (SWCRTs) of a transmission-reducing intervention, where the intervention has spatially diffuse effects. Simulations of such trials were then used to examine the potential of such designs for providing generalizable causal inferences about the impact of such interventions, including measurements of the contamination effects. The simulations were applied to the geography of Rusinga Island, Lake Victoria, Kenya, the site of the SolarMal trial on the use of odor-baited mosquito traps to eliminate Plasmodium falciparum malaria. These were used to compare variants in the proposed SWCRT designs for the SolarMal trial.; Measures of contamination effects were found that could be assessed in the simulated trials. Inspired by analyses of trials of insecticide-treated nets against malaria when applied to the geography of the SolarMal trial, these measures were found to be robust to different variants of SWCRT design. Analyses of the likely extent of contamination effects supported the choice of cluster size for the trial.; The SWCRT is an appropriate design for trials that assess the feasibility of local elimination of a pathogen. The effects of incomplete coverage can be estimated by analyzing the extent of contamination between arms in such trials, and the estimates also support inferences about causality. The SolarMal example illustrates how generic transmission models incorporating spatial smoothing can be used to simulate such trials for a power calculation and optimization of cluster size and randomization strategies. The approach is applicable to a range of infectious diseases transmitted via environmental reservoirs or via arthropod vectors

The stellar content of two OB associations in the LMC - LH 117 (NGC 2122) and LH 118

Photometry for stars in two adjacent OB associations in the LMC, numbers 117 and 118 in the list of Lucke and Hodge (1970), is presented. Each association contains about 50 stars with mass larger than 10 solar, including two newly confirmed red supergiants. Most of the stars in these associations are in the first half of their lives on the main sequence. However, the two red supergiants and a B2 I stars are of lower mass than several of the unevolved, more massive members of the associations, and must have formed six to 10 million yr earlier than most of the association members. The initial mass function of the associations has a slope of - 1.8, similar to the one observed for massive stars near the sun

Evaluation of miglustat as maintenance therapy after enzyme therapy in adults with stable type 1 Gaucher disease: a prospective, open-label non-inferiority study.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies have provided equivocal data on the use of miglustat as maintenance therapy in Gaucher disease type 1. We report findings from a clinical trial evaluating the effects of miglustat treatment in patients with stable type 1 Gaucher disease after enzyme therapy. METHODS: Adult type 1 Gaucher disease patients stabilized during at least 3 years of previous enzyme therapy were included in this 2-year, prospective, open-label non-inferiority study. The primary endpoint was percent change from baseline in liver volume. Secondary endpoints included changes in spleen volume, hemoglobin concentration and platelet count. RESULTS: Forty-two patients were enrolled (mean±SD age, 45.1±12.7 years; previous enzyme therapy duration 9.5±4.0 years). Median (range) exposure to miglustat 100 mg t.i.d. was 658 (3-765) days. Twenty-one patients discontinued treatment prematurely; 13 due to adverse events, principally gastrointestinal. The upper 95% confidence limit of mean percent change in liver volume from baseline to end of treatment was below the non-inferiority margin of 10% (-1.1%; 95%CI -6.0, 3.9%). Mean (95%CI) changes in spleen volume, hemoglobin concentration and platelet count were 102 (24,180) mL, -0.95 (-1.38, -0.53) g/dL and -44.1 (-57.6, -30.7) ×109/L, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The primary efficacy endpoint was met; overall there was no change in liver volume during 24 months of miglustat therapy. Several patients showed a gradual deterioration in some disease manifestations, suggesting that miglustat could maintain clinical stability, but not in all patients. Miglustat demonstrated a predictable profile of safety and tolerability that was consistent with that reported in previous clinical trials and experience in clinical practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT00319046.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

Effects of liver-stage clearance by Primaquine on gametocyte carriage of Plasmodium vivax and P. falciparum

Primaquine (PQ) is the only currently licensed antimalarial that prevents Plasmodium vivax (Pv) relapses. It also clears mature P. falciparum (Pf) gametocytes, thereby reducing post-treatment transmission. Randomized PQ treatment in a treatment-to-reinfection cohort in Papua New Guinean children permitted the study of Pv and Pf gametocyte carriage after radical cure and to investigate the contribution of Pv relapses.; Children received radical cure with Chloroquine, Artemether-Lumefantrine plus either PQ or placebo. Blood samples were subsequently collected in 2-to 4-weekly intervals over 8 months. Gametocytes were detected by quantitative reverse transcription-PCR targeting pvs25 and pfs25.; PQ treatment reduced the incidence of Pv gametocytes by 73%, which was comparable to the effect of PQ on incidence of blood-stage infections. 92% of Pv and 79% of Pf gametocyte-positive infections were asymptomatic. Pv and to a lesser extent Pf gametocyte positivity and density were associated with high blood-stage parasite densities. Multivariate analysis revealed that the odds of gametocytes were significantly reduced in mixed-species infections compared to single-species infections for both species (ORPv = 0.39 [95% CI 0.25-0.62], ORPf = 0.33 [95% CI 0.18-0.60], p<0.001). No difference between the PQ and placebo treatment arms was observed in density of Pv gametocytes or in the proportion of Pv infections that carried gametocytes. First infections after blood-stage and placebo treatment, likely caused by a relapsing hypnozoite, were equally likely to carry gametocytes than first infections after PQ treatment, likely caused by an infective mosquito bite.; Pv relapses and new infections are associated with similar levels of gametocytaemia. Relapses thus contribute considerably to the Pv reservoir highlighting the importance of effective anti-hypnozoite treatment for efficient control of Pv.; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02143934

Strategies for Understanding and Reducing the Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium ovale Hypnozoite Reservoir in Papua New Guinean Children: A Randomised Placebo-Controlled Trial and Mathematical Model

The undetectable hypnozoite reservoir for relapsing Plasmodium vivax and P. ovale malarias presents a major challenge for malaria control and elimination in endemic countries. This study aims to directly determine the contribution of relapses to the burden of P. vivax and P. ovale infection, illness, and transmission in Papua New Guinean children.; From 17 August 2009 to 20 May 2010, 524 children aged 5-10 y from East Sepik Province in Papua New Guinea (PNG) participated in a randomised double-blind placebo-controlled trial of blood- plus liver-stage drugs (chloroquine [CQ], 3 d; artemether-lumefantrine [AL], 3 d; and primaquine [PQ], 20 d, 10 mg/kg total dose) (261 children) or blood-stage drugs only (CQ, 3 d; AL, 3 d; and placebo [PL], 20 d) (263 children). Participants, study staff, and investigators were blinded to the treatment allocation. Twenty children were excluded during the treatment phase (PQ arm: 14, PL arm: 6), and 504 were followed actively for 9 mo. During the follow-up time, 18 children (PQ arm: 7, PL arm: 11) were lost to follow-up. Main primary and secondary outcome measures were time to first P. vivax infection (by qPCR), time to first clinical episode, force of infection, gametocyte positivity, and time to first P. ovale infection (by PCR). A basic stochastic transmission model was developed to estimate the potential effect of mass drug administration (MDA) for the prevention of recurrent P. vivax infections. Targeting hypnozoites through PQ treatment reduced the risk of having at least one qPCR-detectable P. vivax or P. ovale infection during 8 mo of follow-up (P. vivax: PQ arm 0.63/y versus PL arm 2.62/y, HR = 0.18 [95% CI 0.14, 0.25], p < 0.001; P. ovale: 0.06 versus 0.14, HR = 0.31 [95% CI 0.13, 0.77], p = 0.011) and the risk of having at least one clinical P. vivax episode (HR = 0.25 [95% CI 0.11, 0.61], p = 0.002). PQ also reduced the molecular force of P. vivax blood-stage infection in the first 3 mo of follow-up (PQ arm 1.90/y versus PL arm 7.75/y, incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 0.21 [95% CI 0.15, 0.28], p < 0.001). Children who received PQ were less likely to carry P. vivax gametocytes (IRR = 0.27 [95% CI 0.19, 0.38], p < 0.001). PQ had a comparable effect irrespective of the presence of P. vivax blood-stage infection at the time of treatment (p = 0.14). Modelling revealed that mass screening and treatment with highly sensitive quantitative real-time PCR, or MDA with blood-stage treatment alone, would have only a transient effect on P. vivax transmission levels, while MDA that includes liver-stage treatment is predicted to be a highly effective strategy for P. vivax elimination. The inclusion of a directly observed 20-d treatment regime maximises the efficiency of hypnozoite clearance but limits the generalisability of results to real-world MDA programmes.; These results suggest that relapses cause approximately four of every five P. vivax infections and at least three of every five P. ovale infections in PNG children and are important in sustaining transmission. MDA campaigns combining blood- and liver-stage treatment are predicted to be a highly efficacious intervention for reducing P. vivax and P. ovale transmission.; ClinicalTrials.gov NCT02143934

Scleroderma and related disorders: 223. Long Term Outcome in a Contemporary Systemic Sclerosis Cohort

Background: We have previously compared outcome in two groups of systemic sclerosis (SSc) patients with disease onset a decade apart and we reported data on 5 year survival and cumulative incidence of organ disease in a contemporary SSc cohort. The present study examines longer term outcome in an additional cohort of SSc followed for 10 years. Methods: We have examined patients with disease onset between years 1995 and 1999 allowing for at least 10 years of follow-up in a group that has characteristics representative for the patients we see in contemporary clinical practice. Results: Of the 398 patients included in the study, 252 (63.3%) had limited cutaneous (lc) SSc and 146 (36.7%) had diffuse cutaneous (dc) SSc. The proportion of male patients was higher among the dcSSc group (17.1% v 9.9%, p = 0.037) while the mean age of onset was significantly higher among lcSSc patients (50 ± 13 v 46 ± 13 years ± SD, p = 0.003). During a 10 year follow-up from disease onset, 45% of the dcSSc and 21% of the lcSSc subjects developed clinically significant pulmonary fibrosis, p < 0.001. Among them approximately half reached the endpoint within the first 3 years (23% of dcSSc and 10% of lcSSc) and over three quarters within the first 5 years (34% and 16% respectively). There was a similar incidence of pulmonary hypertension (PH) in the two subsets with a steady rate of increase over time. At 10 years 13% of dcSSc and 15% of lcSSc subjects had developed PH (p=0.558), with the earliest cases observed within the first 2 years of disease. Comparison between subjects who developed PH in the first and second 5 years from disease onset demonstrated no difference in demographic or clinical characteristics, but 5-year survival from PH onset was better among those who developed this complication later in their disease (49% v 24%), with a strong trend towards statistical significance (p = 0.058). Incidence of SSc renal crisis (SRC) was significantly higher among the dcSSc patients (12% v 4% in lcSSc, p = 0.002). As previously observed, the rate of development of SRC was highest in the first 3 years of disease- 10% in dcSSc and 3% in lcSSc. All incidences of clinically important cardiac disease developed in the first 5 years from disease onset (7% in dcSSc v 1% in lcSSc, p < 0.001) and remained unchanged at 10 years. As expected, 10-year survival among lcSSc subjects was significantly higher (81%) compared to that of dcSSc patients (70%, p = 0.006). Interestingly, although over the first 5 years the death rate was much higher in the dcSSc cohort (16% v 6% in lcSSc), over the following years it became very similar for both subsets (14% and 13% between years 5 and 10, and 18% and 17% between years 10 and 15 for dcSSc and lcSSc respectively). Conclusions: Even though dcSSc patients have higher incidence for most organ complications compared to lcSSc subjects, the worse survival among them is mainly due to higher early mortality rate. Mortality rate after first 5 years of disease becomes comparable in the two disease subsets. Disclosure statement: The authors have declared no conflicts of interes

Water-quality assessment of the Puget Sound Basin, Washington : summary of stream biological data through 1995 /

Includes bibliographical references (p. 42-59).Mode of access: Internet

Evaluation of miglustat as maintenance therapy after enzyme therapy in adults with stable type 1 Gaucher disease: a prospective, open-label non-inferiority study

Abstract Background Previous studies have provided equivocal data on the use of miglustat as maintenance therapy in Gaucher disease type 1. We report findings from a clinical trial evaluating the effects of miglustat treatment in patients with stable type 1 Gaucher disease after enzyme therapy. Methods Adult type 1 Gaucher disease patients stabilized during at least 3 years of previous enzyme therapy were included in this 2-year, prospective, open-label non-inferiority study. The primary endpoint was percent change from baseline in liver volume. Secondary endpoints included changes in spleen volume, hemoglobin concentration and platelet count. Results Forty-two patients were enrolled (mean±SD age, 45.1±12.7 years; previous enzyme therapy duration 9.5±4.0 years). Median (range) exposure to miglustat 100 mg t.i.d. was 658 (3–765) days. Twenty-one patients discontinued treatment prematurely; 13 due to adverse events, principally gastrointestinal. The upper 95% confidence limit of mean percent change in liver volume from baseline to end of treatment was below the non-inferiority margin of 10% (–1.1%; 95%CI −6.0, 3.9%). Mean (95%CI) changes in spleen volume, hemoglobin concentration and platelet count were 102 (24,180) mL, –0.95 (−1.38, –0.53) g/dL and −44.1 (–57.6, –30.7) ×109/L, respectively. Conclusions The primary efficacy endpoint was met; overall there was no change in liver volume during 24 months of miglustat therapy. Several patients showed a gradual deterioration in some disease manifestations, suggesting that miglustat could maintain clinical stability, but not in all patients. Miglustat demonstrated a predictable profile of safety and tolerability that was consistent with that reported in previous clinical trials and experience in clinical practice. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT00319046</p