The sensitivity of southeast pacific heat distribution to local and remote changes in ocean properties

AbstractThe Southern Ocean features ventilation pathways that transport surface waters into the subsurface thermocline on time scales from decades to centuries, sequestering anomalies of heat and carbon away from the atmosphere and thereby regulating the rate of surface warming. Despite its importance for climate sensitivity, the factors that control the distribution of heat along these pathways are not well understood. In this study, we use an observationally constrained, physically consistent global ocean model to examine the sensitivity of heat distribution in the recently ventilated subsurface Pacific (RVP) sector of the Southern Ocean to changes in ocean temperature and salinity. First, we define the RVP using numerical passive tracer release experiments that highlight the ventilation pathways. Next, we use an ensemble of adjoint sensitivity experiments to quantify the sensitivity of the RVP heat content to changes in ocean temperature and salinity. In terms of sensitivities to surface ocean properties, we find that RVP heat content is most sensitive to anomalies along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), upstream of the subduction hotspots. In terms of sensitivities to subsurface ocean properties, we find that RVP heat content is most sensitive to basin-scale changes in the subtropical Pacific Ocean, around the same latitudes as the RVP. Despite the localized nature of mode water subduction hotspots, changes in basin-scale density gradients are an important controlling factor on heat distribution in the southeast Pacific.</jats:p

The impact of the mixing properties within the Antarctic stratospheric vortex on ozone loss in spring

Calculations of equivalent length from an artificial advected tracer provide new insight into the isentropic transport processes occurring within the Antarctic stratospheric vortex. These calculations show two distinct regions of approximately equal area: a strongly mixed vortex core and a broad ring of weakly mixed air extending out to the vortex boundary. This broad ring of vortex air remains isolated from the core between late winter and midspring. Satellite measurements of stratospheric H2O confirm that the isolation lasts until at least mid-October. A three-dimensional chemical transport model simulation of the Antarctic ozone hole quantifies the ozone loss within this ring and demonstrates its isolation. In contrast to the vortex core, ozone loss in the weakly mixed broad ring is not complete. The reasons are twofold. First, warmer temperatures in the broad ring prevent continuous polar stratospheric cloud (PSC) formation and the associated chemical processing (i.e., the conversion of unreactive chlorine into reactive forms). Second, the isolation prevents ozone-rich air from the broad ring mixing with chemically processed air from the vortex core. If the stratosphere continues to cool, this will lead to increased PSC formation and more complete chemical processing in the broad ring. Despite the expected decline in halocarbons, sensitivity studies suggest that this mechanism will lead to enhanced ozone loss in the weakly mixed region, delaying the future recovery of the ozone hole

Preliminary report on climate risk in the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough region, 2020-2099

Commissioned by the Cambridgeshire and Peterborough Independent Commission on Climate, this report provides a high-level risk assessment of changes the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough region may experience due to climate change between 2020 and 2099. It examines the interplay between two factors, future overheating and changes in seasonal rainfall patterns, and provides a preliminary overview of some of the major risks associated with these changes. Insight into the changing regional climate is provided through the UK Climate Projection 2018 (UKCP18) data and associated products and research. The region faces at least 42 local risks and opportunities of the 53 national risks referenced in the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment 2017.Of these, the most severe risks faced by the region before 2099 will relate to more extreme summer temperatures and changes in the character of seasonal and annual precipitation. These changes will impact people, the built environment, biodiversity, and the economy

Targeting building energy efficiency using thermal infrared earth observation telescopes

Abstract Upgrading the energy performance of the UK’s entire building stock is the central pillar of any credible and cost-effective strategy to meeting net zero. This research aims to open up the revenue of using thermal infrared data from satellites to assist in processes on building energy performance improvement. High-resolution thermal infrared data output from space offers the potential for fast and effective monitoring provision that can cover large areas and targeted buildings or sites. We have interviewed a set of stakeholders from government, industry and community groups to build the specific use cases and find out detailed user requirements.</jats:p

Arctic Sea Ice Loss in Different Regions Leads to Contrasting Northern Hemisphere Impacts

To explore the mechanisms linking Arctic sea-ice loss to changes in mid-latitude surface temperatures, we conduct idealized modeling experiments using an intermediate general circulation model and with sea-ice loss confined to the Atlantic or Pacific sectors of the Arctic (Barents-Kara or Chukchi-Bering Seas). Extending previous findings, there are opposite effects on the winter stratospheric polar vortex for both large-magnitude (late twenty-first century) and moderate-magnitude sea-ice loss. Accordingly, there are opposite tropospheric Arctic Oscillation (AO) responses for moderate-magnitude sea-ice loss. However, there are similar strength negative AO responses for large-magnitude sea-ice loss, suggesting that tropospheric mechanisms become relatively more important than stratospheric mechanisms as the sea-ice loss magnitude increases. The mid-latitude surface temperature response for each loss region and magnitude can be understood as the combination of an ‘indirect’ part induced by the large-scale circulation (AO) response, and a residual ‘direct’ part that is local to the loss region

Seasonal Arctic sea ice forecasting with probabilistic deep learning

Anthropogenic warming has led to an unprecedented year-round reduction in Arctic sea ice extent. This has far-reaching consequences for indigenous and local communities, polar ecosystems, and global climate, motivating the need for accurate seasonal sea ice forecasts. While physics-based dynamical models can successfully forecast sea ice concentration several weeks ahead, they struggle to outperform simple statistical benchmarks at longer lead times. We present a probabilistic, deep learning sea ice forecasting system, IceNet. The system has been trained on climate simulations and observational data to forecast the next 6 months of monthly-averaged sea ice concentration maps. We show that IceNet advances the range of accurate sea ice forecasts, outperforming a state-of-the-art dynamical model in seasonal forecasts of summer sea ice, particularly for extreme sea ice events. This step-change in sea ice forecasting ability brings us closer to conservation tools that mitigate risks associated with rapid sea ice loss

Half a degree additional warming, prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI): Background and experimental design

Abstract. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has accepted the invitation from the UNFCCC to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and on related global greenhouse-gas emission pathways. Many current experiments in, for example, the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP), are not specifically designed for informing this report. Here, we document the design of the half a degree additional warming, projections, prognosis and impacts (HAPPI) experiment. HAPPI provides a framework for the generation of climate data describing how the climate, and in particular extreme weather, might differ from the present day in worlds that are 1.5 and 2.0 °C warmer than pre-industrial conditions. Output from participating climate models includes variables frequently used by a range of impact models. The key challenge is to separate the impact of an additional approximately half degree of warming from uncertainty in climate model responses and internal climate variability that dominate CMIP-style experiments under low-emission scenarios.Large ensembles of simulations (&gt;  50 members) of atmosphere-only models for three time slices are proposed, each a decade in length: the first being the most recent observed 10-year period (2006–2015), the second two being estimates of a similar decade but under 1.5 and 2 °C conditions a century in the future. We use the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) to provide the model boundary conditions for the 1.5 °C scenario, and a weighted combination of RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 for the 2 °C scenario. </jats:p

Evidence gaps and biodiversity threats facing the marine environment of the United Kingdom’s Overseas Territories

Understanding the evidence base and identifying threats to the marine environment is critical to ensure cost-effective management and to identify priorities for future research. The United Kingdom (UK) government is responsible for approximately 2% of the world’s oceans, most of which belongs to its 14 Overseas Territories (UKOTs). Containing biodiversity of global significance, and far in excess of the UK mainland’s domestic species, there has recently been a strong desire from many of the UKOTs, the UK Government, and NGOs to improve marine management in these places. Implementing evidence-based marine policy is, however, challenged by the disparate nature of scientific research in the UKOTs and knowledge gaps about the threats they face. Here, we address these issues by systematically searching for scientific literature which has examined UKOT marine biodiversity and by exploring publicly available spatial threat data. We find that UKOT marine biodiversity has received consistent, but largely low, levels of scientific interest, and there is considerable geographical and subject bias in research effort. Of particular concern is the lack of research focus on management or threats to biodiversity. The extent and intensity of threats vary amongst and within the UKOTs but unsurprisingly, climate change associated threats affect them all and direct human stressors are more prevalent in those with higher human populations. To meet global goals for effective conservation and management, there is an urgent need for additional and continued investment in research and management in the Overseas Territories, particularly those that have been of lesser focus