Stated Preference Analysis of Driver Route Choice Reaction To Variable Message Sign Information

Highway Authorities in many parts of the world have, for some years, been using variable message panels mounted above or beside the camageway to communicate short messages to motorists. Most such applications have been concerned with hazard warning and speed advice. However, their use to deliberately affect route choice is an area of great current interest. It is recognised that they have a potential role in managing demand to match the capacity available, not only to alleviate acute problems caused by roadworks and accidents, but also to contribute to satisfactory performance of networks operating close to capacity over extended periods of high, but variable, demand. The installation and operation of the panels is not cheap and there is a widespread belief that overuse, or inappropriate use, of the messages may lead to them losing their credibility with the motorists and thus ceasing to be effective. It is therefore very important to understand the likely response of motorists to various messages before displaying them and even before selecting sites for the installation of panels. A number of researchers have explored drivers' responses to traffic information and route advice offered via variable message signs (VMS). Evidence from traffic counts suggests that messages can persuade somewhere between 5% and 80% of drivers to divert. Clearly this range of estimates is far too wide to support the use of VMS for fine tuning the pattern of demand. A major contributor to the uncertainty, however, is the varying, and often unknown, proportion of drivers whose destination makes the message relevant to them. More detailed studies involving driver interviews downstream of the VM!3 site to determine the relevance of the message, as well as the response to it, include those by Kawashima (1991) and Durand-Raucher et al. (1993). These studies have produced more precise estimates of compliance but the results are obviously limited to those messages which were on display at the time the interviews were being conducted. A number of researchers have sought to overcome this restriction by examining response to a range of messages presented via a stated preference exercise (see for example Hato et al., 1995; Shao et al., 1995 and Bonsall and Whelm, 1995), via a route-choice-simulator (see for example Firmin, 1996; Bonsall and Merrall, 1995 ; Bonsall and Palmer, 1997) or via a full scale driving simulator or system mock-up (see for example Mast and Ballas, 1976 and Brocken and Van der Vlist, 1991). This research has suggested that response is highly dependent on message content, subjects' network knowledge, and on the extent of any implied diversion. We see particular value in extending this earlier work to consider a wider range of messages and to determine whether the route-choice-simulator results can be repeated and extended using a somewhat cheaper methodology - namely stated preference analysis. The objectives of the work reported in this paper were thus: to extend to our existing database on drivers' response to traffic information and route advice provided in variable message signs, to include a wider range of messages. to construct explanatory models of drivers' route choice behaviour in response to a variety of messages to explore the factors influencing this response to compare these results with previous results obtained using a variety of data collection methods to draw policy conclusions, where appropriate, on the use of variable message signs to influence drivers' route choice to draw conclusions, where appropriate, on our data collection and modelling methodology

European Railway Comparisons: Final Report

The Institute for Transport Studies (ITS), University of Leeds and the British Railways Board (BRB) carried out a major comparative study of Western European railways in the late 1970s (BRB and University of Leeds, 1979). Follow-up work was carried out by ITS financed by the Social Science Research Council and reported by Nash (1985). It was deaded to revive this work at ITS for a number of reasons: It is over ten years since the last set of comparisons (for 1981) were made at ITS and therefore a review of the changes in costs and productivity may be timely. There has been a number of technical developments that make the use of statistical cost analysis more promising. These developments include the use of more flexible functional forms such as the translog, and the development of comprehensive total factor productivity indices (see, for example, Dodgson, 1985 and, more recently, Hensher and Waters, 1993). There is increasing interest in the organisational structure of railway industries as a result of the 1988 Transport Act in Sweden, the EC directive 91/4-40 and the publication of proposals for privatising British Rail in July 1992 (see, for example, ECMT, 1993). Given the explosion in information technology, there were some hopes that data availability would have improved. (Continues..

The use of recovery time in timetables: rail passengers' preferences and valuation relative to travel time and delays

Recovery time in the rail industry is the additional time that is included in train timetables over and above the minimum journey time necessary often with the explicit aim of improving punctuality. Recovery time is widely used in railways in a number of countries but prior to this study there has been no investigation of the rail users’ point of view. Perceived recovery time, such as being held outside stations and prolonged stops at stations, might have some premium valuation due to the frustration caused. If perceived recovery time in train timetables does carry a premium, then the benefits of improved punctuality achieved by it will be reduced. This paper is the first to investigate passengers’ views and preferences on the use of recovery time. We summarise the findings of a large study and provide estimates of passengers’ valuations of recovery time, both relative to in-vehicle time and late time, that can be used for economic appraisal purposes. Overall, we find most passengers support the use of recovery time but the context is important. Only 13% of users disapprove of its use as a tool to reduce lateness. The estimated premia vary by demand characteristics and are significant in some contexts, although on average are of a small magnitude. The applicability of the estimates is demonstrated through the appraisal of an actual scheme in the UK. We observe that the introduction of more recovery time along with the subsequent improvement in reliability can lead to significant reductions in generalised journey time, even when recovery time carries a valuation premium. We must however strike a word of caution since we note that there were higher than expected proportions of non-traders in the survey which may have affected the results; future studies into the topic should look to minimise the proportion of non-traders. This study provides valuable and necessary first steps in this challenging topic

Gender differences in cycling patterns and attitudes towards cycling in a sample of European regular cyclists

Previous research has shown that men cycle more than women and women tent to report less favourable perceptions and attitudes towards cycling than men. Gender differences in perceptions and attitudes towards cycling may be influenced by such difference in bicycle use. Attitudinal differences concerning cycling between male and female may be the consequence and not only the cause of gender imbalance in bicycle use. To our knowledge, no previous research has focused on gender differences in perceptions and attitudes towards cycling involving a sample with gender balance in bicycle use (e.g. regular cyclists). In our study, we investigated gender differences in attitudes towards cycling and towards cycling infrastructure, purpose of cycling, risk perception, and exposure to severe crashes in a large sample of regular cyclists. Following a cross-sectional design, we collected data from 2417 participants from Hungary, Italy, Spain, Sweden, Netherlands, and United Kingdom. A survey was administered to an online panel of respondents. Gender differences in attitudes towards cycling were small in terms of effect size or non-significant, with women having more positive attitudes in personal benefits rather than mobility benefits. Women reported gender-stereotyped reasons for cycling more than men, except for social activities. Also, women showed higher discomfort than men cycling in mixed traffic and higher risk perception than men. Furthermore, men reported higher exposure to severe crashes than women. We contend that bicycle use and gender role (i.e. society's shared beliefs concerning a range of attitudes, norms, and behaviours that are generally considered appropriate or desirable for individuals based on their actual or perceived sex) can affect differences between male and female cyclists in perceptions, attitudes towards cycling, and cycling behaviours

Search for CP violation in D+→K−K+π+D^{+} \to K^{-}K^{+}\pi^{+} decays

A model-independent search for direct CP violation in the Cabibbo suppressed decay $D^+ \to K^- K^+\pi^+$ in a sample of approximately 370,000 decays is carried out. The data were collected by the LHCb experiment in 2010 and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 35 pb$^{-1}$. The normalized Dalitz plot distributions for $D^+$ and $D^-$ are compared using four different binning schemes that are sensitive to different manifestations of CP violation. No evidence for CP asymmetry is found.Comment: 13 pages, 8 figures, submitted to Phys. Rev.

Observation of two new Ξb−\Xi_b^- baryon resonances

Two structures are observed close to the kinematic threshold in the $\Xi_b^0 \pi^-$ mass spectrum in a sample of proton-proton collision data, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 3.0 fb$^{-1}$ recorded by the LHCb experiment. In the quark model, two baryonic resonances with quark content $bds$ are expected in this mass region: the spin-parity $J^P = \frac{1}{2}^+$ and $J^P=\frac{3}{2}^+$ states, denoted $\Xi_b^{\prime -}$ and $\Xi_b^{*-}$. Interpreting the structures as these resonances, we measure the mass differences and the width of the heavier state to be $m(\Xi_b^{\prime -}) - m(\Xi_b^0) - m(\pi^{-}) = 3.653 \pm 0.018 \pm 0.006$ MeV$/c^2$, $m(\Xi_b^{*-}) - m(\Xi_b^0) - m(\pi^{-}) = 23.96 \pm 0.12 \pm 0.06$ MeV$/c^2$, $\Gamma(\Xi_b^{*-}) = 1.65 \pm 0.31 \pm 0.10$ MeV, where the first and second uncertainties are statistical and systematic, respectively. The width of the lighter state is consistent with zero, and we place an upper limit of $\Gamma(\Xi_b^{\prime -}) < 0.08$ MeV at 95% confidence level. Relative production rates of these states are also reported.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figure