The dynamics of temperature extremes

Changes in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns are not well understood. A study finds that these have been a big factor in observed changes in regional temperature extremes during recent decades

Relationship between southern hemispheric jet variability and forced response: the role of the stratosphere

Climate models show a wide range of southern hemispheric jet responses to greenhouse gas forcing. One approach to constrain the future jet response is by utilising the fluctuation–dissipation theorem (FDT) which links the forced response to internal variability timescales, with the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) the most dominant mode of variability of the southern hemispheric jet. We show that interannual stratospheric variability approximately doubles the SAM timescale during austral summer in both re-analysis data and models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). Using a simple barotropic model, we demonstrate how the enhanced SAM timescale subsequently leads to an overestimate of the forced jet response based on the FDT, and we introduce a method to correct for the stratospheric influence. This result helps to resolve a previously identified discrepancy between the seasonality of jet response and the internal variability timescale. However, even after accounting for this influence, the SAM timescale cannot explain inter-model differences in the forced jet shift across CMIP models during austral summer

On variational principles for coherent vortex structures

Different approaches are discussed of variational principles characterizing coherent vortex structures in two-dimensional flows. Turbulent flows seem to form ordered structures in the large scales of the motion and the self-organization principle predicts asymptotic states realizing an extremal value of the energy or a minimum of enstrophy. On the other hand the small scales take care of the increase of entropy, and asymptotic results can be obtained by applying the theory of equilibrium statistical mechanics

A hiatus in the stratosphere?

Rapid CommunicationCopyright © 2015 Nature Publishing GroupTo the Editor — Since the turn of the twenty-first century there has been a hiatus in the cooling of the lower stratosphere (Fig. 1a). This 'stratospheric hiatus' is happening at the same time as the well-documented hiatus in global surface warming1, during a time of increasing CO2 concentrations ('Surface' line in Fig. 1a). Although CO2 acts to warm the surface and troposphere by decreasing outgoing radiative flux at the tropopause, it cools the stratosphere by increasing net infrared emission, so we might expect the continued increase in CO2 concentrations to have produced lower-stratospheric cooling, as observed through much of the depth of the stratosphere2. Why, then, do we observe a hiatus in the lower stratosphere?NER

A common framework for approaches to extreme event attribution

The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be framed in various ways, and the answer depends very much on the framing. One such framing is a risk-based approach, which answers the question probabilistically, in terms of a change in likelihood of a class of event similar to the one in question, and natural variability is treated as noise. A rather different framing is a storyline approach, which examines the role of the various factors contributing to the event as it unfolded, including the anomalous aspects of natural variability, and answers the question deterministically. It is argued that these two apparently irreconcilable approaches can be viewed within a common framework, where the most useful level of conditioning will depend on the question being asked and the uncertainties involved

Blood pressure variability and cardiovascular risk in the PROspective study of pravastatin in the elderly at risk (PROSPER)

Variability in blood pressure predicts cardiovascular disease in young- and middle-aged subjects, but relevant data for older individuals are sparse. We analysed data from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) study of 5804 participants aged 70–82 years with a history of, or risk factors for cardiovascular disease. Visit-to-visit variability in blood pressure (standard deviation) was determined using a minimum of five measurements over 1 year; an inception cohort of 4819 subjects had subsequent in-trial 3 years follow-up; longer-term follow-up (mean 7.1 years) was available for 1808 subjects. Higher systolic blood pressure variability independently predicted long-term follow-up vascular and total mortality (hazard ratio per 5 mmHg increase in standard deviation of systolic blood pressure = 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.4; hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.2, respectively). Variability in diastolic blood pressure associated with increased risk for coronary events (hazard ratio 1.5, 95% confidence interval 1.2–1.8 for each 5 mmHg increase), heart failure hospitalisation (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.8) and vascular (hazard ratio 1.4, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.7) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.3, 95% confidence interval 1.1–1.5), all in long-term follow-up. Pulse pressure variability was associated with increased stroke risk (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.4 for each 5 mmHg increase), vascular mortality (hazard ratio 1.2, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.3) and total mortality (hazard ratio 1.1, 95% confidence interval 1.0–1.2), all in long-term follow-up. All associations were independent of respective mean blood pressure levels, age, gender, in-trial treatment group (pravastatin or placebo) and prior vascular disease and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Our observations suggest variability in diastolic blood pressure is more strongly associated with vascular or total mortality than is systolic pressure variability in older high-risk subjects

The Ets dominant repressor En/Erm enhances intestinal epithelial tumorigenesis in ApcMin mice

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Ets transcription factors have been widely implicated in the control of tumorigenesis, with most studies suggesting tumor-promoting roles. However, few studies have examined Ets tumorigenesis-modifying functions <it>in vivo </it>using model genetic systems.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Using mice expressing a previously characterized Ets dominant repressor transgene in the intestinal epithelium (Villin-En/Erm), we examined the consequences of blocking endogenous Ets-mediated transcriptional activation on tumorigenesis in the Apc^Minmodel of intestinal carcinoma.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>En/Erm expression in the intestine, at levels not associated with overt crypt-villus dysmorphogenesis, results in a marked increase in tumor number in Apc^Minanimals. Moreover, when examined histologically, tumors from En/Erm-expressing animals show a trend toward greater stromal invasiveness. Detailed analysis of crypt-villus homeostasis in these En/Erm transgenic animals suggests increased epithelial turnover as one possible mechanism for the enhanced tumorigenesis.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Our findings provide <it>in vivo </it>evidence for a tumor-restricting function of endogenous Ets factors in the intestinal epithelium.</p

New insights into the classification and nomenclature of cortical GABAergic interneurons.

A systematic classification and accepted nomenclature of neuron types is much needed but is currently lacking. This article describes a possible taxonomical solution for classifying GABAergic interneurons of the cerebral cortex based on a novel, web-based interactive system that allows experts to classify neurons with pre-determined criteria. Using Bayesian analysis and clustering algorithms on the resulting data, we investigated the suitability of several anatomical terms and neuron names for cortical GABAergic interneurons. Moreover, we show that supervised classification models could automatically categorize interneurons in agreement with experts' assignments. These results demonstrate a practical and objective approach to the naming, characterization and classification of neurons based on community consensus

Variables with time-varying effects and the Cox model: Some statistical concepts illustrated with a prognostic factor study in breast cancer

International audienceBACKGROUND: The Cox model relies on the proportional hazards (PH) assumption, implying that the factors investigated have a constant impact on the hazard - or risk - over time. We emphasize the importance of this assumption and the misleading conclusions that can be inferred if it is violated; this is particularly essential in the presence of long follow-ups. METHODS: We illustrate our discussion by analyzing prognostic factors of metastases in 979 women treated for breast cancer with surgery. Age, tumour size and grade, lymph node involvement, peritumoral vascular invasion (PVI), status of hormone receptors (HRec), Her2, and Mib1 were considered. RESULTS: Median follow-up was 14 years; 264 women developed metastases. The conventional Cox model suggested that all factors but HRec, Her2, and Mib1 status were strong prognostic factors of metastases. Additional tests indicated that the PH assumption was not satisfied for some variables of the model. Tumour grade had a significant time-varying effect, but although its effect diminished over time, it remained strong. Interestingly, while the conventional Cox model did not show any significant effect of the HRec status, tests provided strong evidence that this variable had a non-constant effect over time. Negative HRec status increased the risk of metastases early but became protective thereafter. This reversal of effect may explain non-significant hazard ratios provided by previous conventional Cox analyses in studies with long follow-ups. CONCLUSIONS: Investigating time-varying effects should be an integral part of Cox survival analyses. Detecting and accounting for time-varying effects provide insights on some specific time patterns, and on valuable biological information that could be missed otherwise

Solar ultraviolet-B radiation and vitamin D: a cross-sectional population-based study using data from the 2007 to 2009 Canadian Health Measures Survey

Background: Exposure to solar ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation is a major source of vitamin D3. Chemistry climate models project decreases in ground-level solar erythemal UV over the current century. It is unclear what impact this will have on vitamin D status at the population level. The purpose of this study was to measure the association between ground-level solar UV-B and serum concentrations of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) using a secondary analysis of the 2007 to 2009 Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS). Methods: Blood samples collected from individuals aged 12 to 79 years sampled across Canada were analyzed for 25(OH)D (n=4,398). Solar UV-B irradiance was calculated for the 15 CHMS collection sites using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet and Visible Radiation Model. Multivariable linear regression was used to evaluate the association between 25(OH)D and solar UV-B adjusted for other predictors and to explore effect modification. Results: Cumulative solar UV-B irradiance averaged over 91 days (91-day UV-B) prior to blood draw correlated significantly with 25(OH)D. Independent of other predictors, a 1 kJ/m 2 increase in 91-day UV-B was associated with a significant 0.5 nmol/L (95% CI 0.3-0.8) increase in mean 25(OH)D (P =0.0001). The relationship was stronger among younger individuals and those spending more time outdoors. Based on current projections of decreases in ground-level solar UV-B, we predict less than a 1 nmol/L decrease in mean 25(OH)D for the population. Conclusions: In Canada, cumulative exposure to ambient solar UV-B has a small but significant association with 25(OH)D concentrations. Public health messages to improve vitamin D status should target safe sun exposure with sunscreen use, and also enhanced dietary and supplemental intake and maintenance of a healthy body weight