Long-term fire resilience of the Ericaceous Belt, Bale Mountains, Ethiopia

Fire is the most frequent disturbance in the Ericaceous Belt (ca 3000- 4300 m.a.s.l.), one of the most important plant communities of tropical African mountains. Through resprouting after fire, Erica establishes a positive fire feedback under certain burning regimes. However, present-day human activity in the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia includes fire and grazing systems that may have a negative impact on the resilience of the ericaceous ecosystem. Current knowledge of Erica-fire relationships is based on studies of modern vegetation, lacking a longer time perspective that can shed light on baseline conditions for the fire feedback. We hypothesize that fire has influenced Erica communities in the Bale Mountains at millennial timescales. To test this, we (1) identify the fire history of the Bale Mountains through a pollen and charcoal record from Garba Guracha, a lake at 3950 m.a.s.l., and (2) describe the long-term bidirectional feedback between wildfire and Erica, which may control the ecosystem's resilience. Our results support fire occurrence in the area since ca 14 000 years ago, with particularly intense burning during the early Holocene, 10.8-6.0 cal ka BP. We show that a positive feedback between Erica abundance and fire occurrence was in operation throughout the Lateglacial and Holocene, and interpret the Ericaceous Belt of the Ethiopian mountains as a long-term fire resilient ecosystem. We propose that controlled burning should be an integral part of landscape management in the Bale Mountains National Park

Long-term fire resilience of the Ericaceous Belt, Bale Mountains, Ethiopia

Fire is the most frequent disturbance in the Ericaceous Belt (ca 3000–4300 m.a.s.l.), one of the most important plant communities of tropical African mountains. Through resprouting after fire, Erica establishes a positive fire feedback under certain burning regimes. However, present-day human activity in the Bale Mountains of Ethiopia includes fire and grazing systems that may have a negative impact on the resilience of the ericaceous ecosystem. Current knowledge of Erica–fire relationships is based on studies of modern vegetation, lacking a longer time perspective that can shed light on baseline conditions for the fire feedback. We hypothesize that fire has influenced Erica communities in the Bale Mountains at millennial time-scales. To test this, we (1) identify the fire history of the Bale Mountains through a pollen and charcoal record from Garba Guracha, a lake at 3950 m.a.s.l., and (2) describe the long-term bidirectional feedback between wildfire and Erica, which may control the ecosystem's resilience. Our results support fire occurrence in the area since ca 14 000 years ago, with particularly intense burning during the early Holocene, 10.8–6.0 cal ka BP. We show that a positive feedback between Erica abundance and fire occurrence was in operation throughout the Lateglacial and Holocene, and interpret the Ericaceous Belt of the Ethiopian mountains as a long-term fire resilient ecosystem. We propose that controlled burning should be an integral part of landscape management in the Bale Mountains National Park

Depopulation impacts on ecosystem services in Mediterranean rural areas

Despite the exponential increase in human population at global scale, some rural areas have experienced a progressive abandonment over the last decades. Under particular socioecological and policy contexts, changes in demography may promote land-use changes and, consequently, alter ecosystem services (ES) supply. However, most studies on this topic have targeted urban population increase, whereas depopulation has been rarely addressed. Here, we examined how shifts in demographic variables (human population, population density, and number of villages) affect provisioning (water supply, food and biomass production) and regulating (soil retention, water and nutrient regulation) ES in Mediterranean rural areas with contrasting environmental, so-cioeconomic and land-use contexts. When depopulation results in underuse of socio-ecological systems, we ex-pected a decrease of provisioning and an increase of regulating ES, whereas we expected the opposite pattern when it results in land-use intensification. To test this hypothesis, we compared demographic data and ES estimated with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) linked to land-use changes between the 1950s and 2000s in three rural areas of Arag ́on (NE Spain). Generalized Additive Mixed Models and Linear Mixed-Effect Models were used to analyze demographic trends, ES changes and the relationship between them. We found severe depopulation (− 42% inhabitants) and associated land-use changes in the three areas, which was particularly evident in isolated mountainous zones (− 63% inhabitants). Depopulation trends significantly affected land use and, consequently, all of the ES evaluated. In mountainous depopulated areas, land abandonment and rewilding resulted in the increase in water regulation (>1000%) and soil retention (>400%). In contrast, agriculture was intensified in more fertile and easy-to-access lowland areas, boosting the food production service (>600%). Accordingly, the interactions among depopulation, crop production and regulating ES should be considered in the management schemes and policies targeting rural areas for a balanced and sustainable supply of ES in the long term

Holocene climate variability, vegetation dynamics and fire regime in the central Pyrenees: the Basa de la Mora sequence (NE Spain)

High resolution multiproxy data (pollen, sedimentology, geochemistry, chironomids and charcoal) from the Basa de la Mora (BSM) lake sequence (42° 32′ N, 0° 19′ E, 1914 m a.s.l.) show marked climate variability in the central southern Pyrenees throughout the Holocene. A robust age model based on 15 AMS radiocarbon dates underpins the first precise reconstruction of rapid climate changes during the Holocene from this area. During the Early Holocene, increased winter snowpack and high snowmelt during summer, as a consequence of high seasonality, led to higher lake levels, a chironomid community dominated by non-lacustrine taxa (Orthocladiinae) related to higher inlet streams, and a forested landscape with intense run-off processes in the watershed. From 9.8 to 8.1 cal ka BP, climate instability is inferred from rapid and intense forest shifts and high fluctuation in surface run-off. Shifts among conifers and mesophytes reveal at least four short-lived dry events at 9.7, 9.3, 8.8 and 8.3 cal ka BP. Between 8.1 and 5.7 cal ka BP a stable climate with higher precipitation favoured highest lake levels and forest expansion, with spread of mesophytes, withdrawal of conifers and intensification of fires, coinciding with the Holocene Climate Optimum. At 5.7 cal ka BP a major change leading to drier conditions contributed to a regional decline in mesophytes, expansion of pines and junipers, and a significant lake level drop. Despite drier conditions, fire activity dropped as consequence of biomass reduction. Two arid intervals occurred between 2.9 and 2.4 cal ka BP and at 1.2–0.7 cal ka BP (800–1300 AD). The latter coincides with the Medieval Climate Anomaly and is one of the most arid phases of the Holocene in BSM sequence. Anthropogenic disturbances were small until 700 AD, when human pressure over landscape intensified, with Olea cultivation in the lowlands and significant deforestation in highlands. Colder and unfavourable weather conditions during the second part of the Little Ice Age caused a temporary cease of high-land management. The most intense anthropogenic disturbances occurred during the second half of 19th century. Last decades are characterized by recovery of the vegetation cover as a result of land abandonment, and lowered lake levels, probably due to higher temperatures

Treatment with tocilizumab or corticosteroids for COVID-19 patients with hyperinflammatory state: a multicentre cohort study (SAM-COVID-19)

Objectives: The objective of this study was to estimate the association between tocilizumab or corticosteroids and the risk of intubation or death in patients with coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) with a hyperinflammatory state according to clinical and laboratory parameters. Methods: A cohort study was performed in 60 Spanish hospitals including 778 patients with COVID-19 and clinical and laboratory data indicative of a hyperinflammatory state. Treatment was mainly with tocilizumab, an intermediate-high dose of corticosteroids (IHDC), a pulse dose of corticosteroids (PDC), combination therapy, or no treatment. Primary outcome was intubation or death; follow-up was 21 days. Propensity score-adjusted estimations using Cox regression (logistic regression if needed) were calculated. Propensity scores were used as confounders, matching variables and for the inverse probability of treatment weights (IPTWs). Results: In all, 88, 117, 78 and 151 patients treated with tocilizumab, IHDC, PDC, and combination therapy, respectively, were compared with 344 untreated patients. The primary endpoint occurred in 10 (11.4%), 27 (23.1%), 12 (15.4%), 40 (25.6%) and 69 (21.1%), respectively. The IPTW-based hazard ratios (odds ratio for combination therapy) for the primary endpoint were 0.32 (95%CI 0.22-0.47; p < 0.001) for tocilizumab, 0.82 (0.71-1.30; p 0.82) for IHDC, 0.61 (0.43-0.86; p 0.006) for PDC, and 1.17 (0.86-1.58; p 0.30) for combination therapy. Other applications of the propensity score provided similar results, but were not significant for PDC. Tocilizumab was also associated with lower hazard of death alone in IPTW analysis (0.07; 0.02-0.17; p < 0.001). Conclusions: Tocilizumab might be useful in COVID-19 patients with a hyperinflammatory state and should be prioritized for randomized trials in this situatio

Rapid climatic changes and resilient vegetation during the Lateglacial and Holocene in a continental region of south-western Europe

Palynological, sedimentological and geochemical analyses performed on the Villarquemado paleolake sequence (987 m a.s.l, 40°30′N; 1°18′W) reveal the vegetation dynamics and climate variability in continental Iberia over the last 13,500 cal yr BP. The Lateglacial and early Holocene periods are characterized by arid conditions with a stable landscape dominated by pinewoods and steppe until ca. 7780 cal yr BP, despite sedimentological evidence for large paleohydrological fluctuations in the paleolake. The most humid phase occurred between ca. 7780 and 5000 cal yr BP and was characterized by the maximum spread of mesophytes (e.g., Betula, Corylus, Quercus faginea type), the expansion of a mixed Mediterranean oak woodland with evergreen Quercus as dominant forest communities and more frequent higher lake level periods. The return of a dense pinewood synchronous with the depletion of mesophytes characterizes the mid-late Holocene transition (ca. 5000 cal yr BP) most likely as a consequence of an increasing aridity that coincides with the reappearance of a shallow, carbonate wetland environment. The paleohydrological and vegetation evolution shows similarities with other continental Mediterranean areas of Iberia and demonstrates a marked resilience of terrestrial vegetation and gradual responses to millennial-scale climate fluctuations. Human impact is negligible until the Ibero-Roman period (ca. 2500 cal yr BP) when a major deforestation occurred in the nearby pine forest. The last 1500 years are characterized by increasing landscape management, mainly associated with grazing practices shaping the current landscape.The funding for the present study derives from DINAMO (CGL-BOS 2009–07992), DINAMO2 (CGL-BOS 2012–33063), IBERIAN PALEOFLORA (CGL-BOS 2012–31717) and GRACCIE-CONSOLIDER (CSD2007-00067) projects, provided by the Spanish Inter-Ministry Commission of Science and Technology (CICYT). Josu Aranbarri acknowledges the predoctoral funding provided by the Basque Country Government (ref: FI-2010-5). Ana Moreno, Graciela Gil-Romera and Mario Morellón hold post-doctoral contracts funded by “Ramon y Cajal (ref: RYC-2008-02431)”, “Juan de la Cierva (ref: JCI2009-04345)” and “JAE DOC CSIC (ref: JAEDOC-2011-026)” programms, respectively. Eduardo García-Prieto is supported by a predoctoral FPI grant (BES-2010-038593). We are very greateful to Aida Adsuar, Beatriz Bueno and Raquel López-Cantero for their assistance in core sampling and laboratory procedures. Josu Aranbarri thanks collegues from the Dipartimento di Biologia Ambientale, especially Alessandra Celant, for continuous encouragement. We would also like to thank Thomas M. Cronin, Anthony C. Stevenson and an anonymous reviewer for their valuable suggestions.Peer reviewe

Strong continentality and effective moisture drove unforeseen vegetation dynamics since the last interglacial at inland Mediterranean areas: The Villarquemado sequence in NE Iberia

Few continental palaeoenvironmental sedimentary sequences from Southern Europe are long enough to span the last interglacial period (Marine Isotopic Stage-MIS 5), the last glacial cycle (MIS 4 to 2) and the Holocene. El Cañizar de Villarquemado (North-Eastern Iberian Peninsula) is an exceptional sedimentary lacustrine sequence spanning the last ca. 135,000 years of environmental change in an area of inland Iberia characterized by Mediterranean climate with strong continentality. We present a multiproxy study which combines palynological, sedimentological and geochemical analyses framed by an independent, robust chronology. Hydrological and climate evolutions were reconstructed by sedimentological and geochemical proxies. Development of wetlands and shallow carbonate lakes support relatively humid conditions during MIS 6, till the onset of MIS 4, and during the Holocene. Palaeohydrological conditions were drier during MIS 5 (dominance of peat environments) than during the Holocene (more frequent carbonate-producing lakes). Sedimentological evidence indicates extremely arid conditions during MIS 3 with greater activity of alluvial fans prograding into the basin. Sedimentary facies variability highlights a large environmental and hydrological variability during MIS 2 and a rapid humidity response to the onset of the Holocene. Compared to classic Mediterranean sites, we found novel pollen assemblages for the end of MIS 6 and MIS 5 indicating that the vegetation cover was essentially represented by sustained high proportions of continentality-adapted taxa dominated by Juniperus during the relatively humid conditions since MIS 6 till the onset of MIS 4. Higher evapotranspiration in inland Iberia would have increased during periods of higher seasonal insolation maxima, impeding soil development and the usual mesophyte expansion during interglacials observed in other Mediterranean areas. Four main periods of forest development occurred in Villarquemado during MIS 5e, MIS 5c, MIS 5a and the Holocene; secondary peaks occurred also during MIS 3. During colder but still relatively humid MIS 4, junipers and Mediterranean taxa disappear but some mesophytes and cold-tolerant species persisted and Pinus became the dominant tree up to modern times. Pollen assemblages and geochemical data variability suggest a dominant control of seasonality and the impact of North Atlantic dynamics both during MIS 5 (cold events C18-C24) and full glacial conditions (HE and D-O interstadials). At millennial scales, steppe herbaceous assemblages dominated during the extremely arid conditions of MIS 3 and pines and steppe taxa during glacial period MIS 2. Villarquemado sequence demonstrates that the resilient behaviour of conifers in continental areas of inland Southern European regions is key to understand the glacial–interglacial vegetation evolution and to evaluate scenarios for potential impacts of global change